EPL Notebook - Week 26
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Matchday 26 of the English Premier League only has eight games on tap due to conflicts with other competitions and those matchups will be made up at a later date.
Chelsea continues to hold a strong grip on the top spot and is eight points clear. It would be stunning to see manager Antonio Conte’s team falter down the stretch and the Blues remain the odds-on favorites (1/7) to capture the title.
The more intriguing race this season is who will finish in the Top 4 and earn a guaranteed slot in the Champions League. There are five teams separated by just four points with Manchester City currently holding the second position (52 points) and Manchester United (48) looking in from the outside.
Odds to Finish in the Top 4 per Sportsbook.ag are listed below.
Manchester City 1/8
Tottenham 4/9
Liverpool 8/13
Arsenal 5/6
Manchester United 19/20
Based on the opinions from the oddsmakers, home teams are expected to dominate this weekend as they’re favored in seven of the eight games. The totals market has some differing opinions with a couple games listed at just 2 while there are possible shootouts looming in
Below is my quick handicap of the eight matchups on tap.
Saturday, Feb. 25
Sunderland at Everton
The Toffees have been on a serious roll lately, going 4-2-0 in their last six and they’ve outscored opponents 15-3 during this run. Everton (-255) has gone 3-0 at home during this span and it will be hard to imagine Sunderland (+675) capturing a win, knowing the Black Cats have gone 2-1-9 as visitors. Sunderland has watched the ‘over’ go 15-10 this season and that mark has been helped by their weak defense (46 goals). These teams have alternated wins and losses in their last four meetings as Everton captured a 3-0 win at Sunderland on Sept. 12 earlier this season.
Bournemouth at West Bromwich Albion
Since Bournemouth was promoted to the top division, the club has gone 2-1-0 in three meetings versus West Bromwich Albion and that includes 1-0 decision at Vitality Stadium this season. Expecting the Cherries to capture the double will be tough as they enter this game on a 1-5 skid in their last six away and they’ve surrendered 18 goals in this span. West Brom (-105) has been a tough out at The Hawthorns this season (7-2-3) and the club is 6-1 in its last seven at home.
Middlesbrough at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace nipped The Boro 2-1 on Sept. 10 on the road but seeing more goals in this game could be a poor imagination. Middlesbrough has scored a league-low 19 goals this season and just five in 12 away games. Surprisingly, Palace has managed just 13 goals at Selhurst Park this season. Knowing The Boro have drawn a league-best 10 times this season, a tie (+205) could be a solid look this Sunday.
Burnley at Hull City
It’s rare to see Hull City (+115) listed as a favorite but the situation certainly fits versus Burnley (+275). The Tigers have gone 3-3-1 in their last seven at KCOM Stadium and they’ve posted two or more goals in five of the games. Meanwhile, Burnley remains the worst road team (0-1-10) in the EPL and they’ve been outscored 24-5 in the 11 games. Based on recent meetings, total bettors could be leaning to the low side even though the ‘under’ is listed at 2 (-120). The pair played to a 1-1 draw back in September and six of the last eight meetings between the pair ended with a 1-0 outcome.
Swansea City at Chelsea
Backing Chelsea (-410) seems like a no-brainer and supporting Swansea City as a 10/1 underdog isn’t a sound investment either even though the Swans have gone 3-1 in their last four. Chelsea enters this game with a proud 11-1 record and eight of those decisions were by two or more goals. The Swans (19-6) and Blues (15-10) have both been great ‘over’ leans this season and Chelsea has seen the ‘over’ go 10-2 at Stamford Bridge.
West Ham United at Watford
Possible shootout looming here as the pair have seen a combined 10 goals in their last two meetings, which includes Watford’s 4-2 road win over West Ham United earlier this season. The total is listed at 2½ and shaded slightly to the ‘under’ (-120). Oddsmakers have Watford (+160) listed as a short favorite but the Hammers (+190) should be confident in this game as they’ve gone 3-2-1 in their last six away and they’ve outscored opponents 13-7 during this run.
Sunday, Feb. 26
Stoke City at Tottenham
Heavy price on the Spurs (-255) in this matchup and you could be hesitant to back the host knowing they just got booted from Europa League play on Thursday. However, Tottenham is undefeated at home (10-2-0) this season and its outscored opponents 26-5 over this span. Stoke is just 3-3-6 on the road this season and they’ve gone 1-4 in its last five as visitors, and three of those losses came against quality opponents in Arsenal (3-1), Liverpool (4-1) and Chelsea (4-2). Knowing Tottenham has dropped the Potters 4-0 in each of their last two encounters makes you believe another crooked number is possible in this spot.
Monday, Feb. 27
Liverpool at Leicester City
The final game of the week could be the most difficult to handicap as Liverpool (-170) visits King Power Stadium for a matchup against a Leicester City (+465) squad that has turned into a complete mess. After dropping a 2-1 decision to Sevilla in Champions League action on Wednesday, the club sacked manager Claudio Ranieri. While Leicester has struggled this season in league play, the firing comes as a surprise knowing he just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in soccer history last season when they won the Premier League title.
Fast forward to Monday and it will be interesting to see if Leicester can back on track against a Liverpool squad that pasted them 4-1 earlier this season from Anfield. The Foxes are goalless in their last six league games and that’s resulted in a 0-1-5 mark. Leicester City has been better at home (5-3-4) and the ‘over’ has gone 8-4-1 in those contests. Liverpool is coming off a much-needed 2-0 win versus Tottenham, which ended a winless five-game run (0-3-2).