CL Round of 16 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
With the notable exception of Chelsea’s exit at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain, last week’s batch of Champions League last 16 ties saw the favourites progressing.
FC Porto and Bayern Munich both followed up away draws with home thrashings, while Real Madrid had an almighty scare at home to Schalke 04. Having been 100/1 to qualify, Schalke won 4-3. The last five minutes was an enthralling spell of football as the great Real Madrid fought to stave off possibly the greatest Champions League comeback of all time. However, Real went through, although they have drifted to 11/4 along with Barcelona to win the tournament outright.
Bayern Munich are the 5/2 favourites in what looks to be a three-horse race.
Four more games set for this week for Tuesday Mar. 17 and Wednesday Mar. 18.
Let's handicap UEFA Champions League: Round of 16 - Second Leg.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Atletico Madrid to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 7/10
Bayer Leverkusen won a relatively even game 1-0 in Germany in the first leg, but they still face a big challenge to qualify. Atletico’s home record in the Champions League is fearsome: eight wins and one draw in their last nine games. Despite this, however, Bayer are the slight favourites to qualify at 4/5, with Atletico available at evens (1/1).
Leverkusen came through a strange group in second place. All four teams were of very similar standard, but they did manage to score an impressive away win against Zenit St. Petersburg. Their form has been impressive in the league of late, and they thrashed an abysmal Stuttgart side 4-0 last time out. Atletico have drawn three on the bounce, but two of those were against sides around them in Valencia and Sevilla. They still look good for Champions League qualification and are worth backing at 7/10 to win on Tuesday night.
The Solid Bet: Arsenal to win at Monaco at 13/10
Arsenal’s recent revival has, most unusually for Arsène Wenger’s side, been due to an upturn in their away form. With recent wins over both Manchester clubs, there is hope among Arsenal fans that the club is finally getting into the habit of winning big away games. And they need more than just a win on Tuesday night.
Arsenal collapsed to an embarrassing 3-1 defeat at home to a Monaco side who only scored four goals in their six group games. However Monaco’s game-plan is set up perfectly to play away from home. Arsenal are as long as 6/1 to qualify - even a 2-0 win would not be good enough - but at 13/10 they look worth taking.
The Outsider: Borussia Dortmund to draw with Juventus at 12/5
Juventus have won just one Champions League knockout tie since 2006. And that was against Celtic - hardly the most taxing of opponents. However the Old Lady’s struggles against the continent’s best could well come to an end tonight. They travel to Borussia Dortmund defending a 2-1 league from the first leg. Juventus are a serious-minded, battle-hardened team and are perfectly suited to this sort of situation. They have conceded just 14 goals in 27 league games this year.
While Borussia Dortmund look set for an upper mid-table season after an unbelievably bad first half, there can be no denying that Jurgen Klopp’s team has declined, despite their Champions League results. Without Robert Lewandowski they do not have the same cutting edge, and Juventus shutting them out for a draw looks a good shout at a 12/5 price.
The First Goalscorer: Neymar for Barcelona against Manchester City at 9/2
Even at 7/1 it is hard to make a case for Manchester City being worth backing in the Nou Camp. Their display in the 2-1 home defeat in the first leg showed all the naiveness that has become the hallmark of the club’s European performances. And I’m in no rush to back a Barcelona side who would go through with a draw to win at 2/5.
This leads me to the first goalscorer market where Neymar is very attractively priced at 9/2. The Brazilian was excellent in Barcelona’s recent 3-1 win in the Copa del Rey at Villarreal. He scored twice to take his tally for the season to 28 goals. His pace and movement will trouble City’s shaky backline, and he looks better value for money than Messi (3/1) and Suarez (9/2) to break the deadlock.