Preakness Stakes Service Plays

Wizard from Brisnet....Preakness Stakes

Wagering Strategy
Obviously, I am not going to suggest a win bet on Big Brown at 1-2 odds. I will play three exactas, only reversing Icabad Crane over Big Brown as a very small saver. My main play are the trifectas (selecting the first three finishers in exact order). My first ticket is to "single" Big Brown over the seven horses I feel will round out the trifectas. My second ticket is to narrow down the second leg of the trifecta to my top five horses, then using ALL in the third spot.
* Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-8. Only reverse 3-7 as a very small saver.

* Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00)

TICKET 1: 7 with 2-3-4-5-6-8-12 with 2-3-5-6-8-12 = $42
TICKET 2: 7 with 3-5-6-8-12 with ALL = $55

TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $97

Preakness Picks: Expert analysis on each horse
By Alan Mann

1) Macho Again (20-1 morning line) comes off a win in the Derby Trial at Churchill. That's a 7 1/2 furlong race, which qualifies as a sprint, and he beat a bunch of sprinters who set him up with a fast pace. Trainer Dallas Stewart says the horse is doing fantastic, and I'm sure he is. But his two races around two turns have been disappointing ones, and they're sandwiched between four excellent tries around one. Very nice horse, look for him in shorter races later in the year.

2) Tres Borrachs (30-1), shut out of the Derby on earnings, is a $7,000 sale yearling who has earned around $160,000, mostly by picking up minor shares. In fact, he's only won once. He's one California synthetic runner who seems to have moved up a bit on the dirt. He set the pace in the Arkansas Derby, in which he was eventually overtaken by Gayego, who should be second choice here. Excellently placed in the two hole, he could very well find himself in the lead should Desormeaux on Big Brown be content to track as he did in the Derby. If that's the case, jockey Tyler Baze might want to wear a target on his back. I don't see this one resisting the favorite, and he may be hard pressed to last for a minor share this time.

3) Icabad Crane (30-1) is a pretty nice looking colt with three wins in four starts, two of those in restricted races for NY-breds, for trainer Graham Motion. He last won over the Pimlico track in the Frederico Tesio, where he held off a stubborn Mint Lane by a head; that one went on to run a no-threat second to the already God-like Casino Drive in the Peter Pan. Other than that (and perhaps even including him), it was a weak field, and this would be a significant step up even without Big Brown. His good late foot though and his familiarity with the track could perhaps land him a minor share at large odds.

4) Yankee Bravo (15-1) is a dead closer who won his first three starts, then stepped up in class for an OK third to Pyro (which doesn't sound so impressive now) in the Louisiana Derby. He last ran in the Santa Anita Derby, where he hung late despite saving all the ground both turns before swinging out towards the outside, said to be the better part of the Cushion Track that day. Seems a stretch to ship him cross country for this, but he seems like the type who could pick up a minor share when the first tier crumbles from the might of Big Brown.

5) Behindatthebar (10-1) was eligible for the Derby after he came from far back under a great ride by David Flores to win the Lexington on the Polytrack at Keeneland. Flores was able to save ground on the final turn and smoothly find a clear path in the stretch. He then had to straighten out the son of Forest Wildcat when he ducked in mid-stretch; but once doing so, they motored home to win by a going away length. Trainer Todd Pletcher elected to pass Churchill and get his preferred four weeks rest. Question here as to track surface, as his only out-of-the-money finish came on natural dirt; and his Lexington win was helped by a fast early pace. Still, he seems on the upswing for a dangerous barn, and certainly merits a spot on my tickets.

6) Racecar Rhapsody (30-1) has a nice pedigree (Tale of the Cat, out of a stakes-winning A.P. Indy mare), always tries, has run well on dirt, and comes off a career high speed figure, running 4th to the above horse in the Lexington, for trainer Ken McPeek. He’s also still eligible for entry-level allowances races. His past performance lines have a little bit of Giacomo to them, in that he always puts in a run; one of these days, a race will fall apart enough for him to win. Not here. But perhaps a spot in the exotics at a big price?

7) Big Brown (1-2) - I'm not a Sheets guy, but I respect their opinions, and when both Ragozin and Thoro-graph proclaim that Big Brown's Derby was one of the fastest of all time, I think it's worth noting. His Beyer was 109, good but not exceptional; but remember that it doesn't take his substantial ground loss, nor the headwind in the stretch, into account. They're all subjective numbers to be sure, and you can quibble to a certain extent. But I think it's clear that Big Brown ran a Derby of historic proportions, an incredible feat for a horse making his third start. Rick Dutrow's early concern over running him back in two weeks has given way to the familiar bravado, and I think that means something. I don't think he's the kind of guy who hides his emotions. This field is weaker than that in the Derby. That may not be saying much, but I think it says Big Brown in a breeze.

8) Kentucky Bear (15-1) has had a little buzz going on ever since he won his debut at Gulfstream by six lengths. In fact, there was so much buzz that he was nearly favored in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, which was his next start. He ran up the track, but people still liked him in the Blue Grass, where he ran a close third, on Poly, behind Cowboy Cal (9th in the Derby) and Monba (20th). Trainer Reade Baker is brashly confident, saying "I’m positive I can win this race ," and the drone remains incessant. Personally, I don't get it. I could be wrong of course, but he's a horse from the second betting tier that I'll leave out to try and create some value.

9) Stevil (30-1). I'm in favor of establishing a rule to make the owners of the last place horse in these races to help clean up the infield. That would likely dissuade the connections of horses like this from cluttering the field. True, he's improved since stretching out, and in graded stakes company too. And he didn't run too badly finishing 4th in the Blue Grass; but I already dissed that race in the analysis above. Has never even cracked the 90 mark with his Beyers, and seems unlikely to do so here.

10) Riley Tucker (30-1) - The owner/trainer team of Zayat Stables and Bill Mott have been a bit weird this Triple Crown season, pressing on to the Derby with the obviously unqualified Z Humor and the obviously unfast Court Vision. But actually, this colt's third place finish, just 1 1/2 lengths behind Behindatthebar, was not bad at all. He had to run fast early to stay within shouting distance of Baffert's speedy and game Samba Rooster, and still was able to hang in late to fall just short of that one for the place. However, Riley Tucker has not won in the six races since his debut victory. And since he likes to be close early, he's likely to encounter the favorite, which would not be to his advantage.

11) Giant Moon (30-1) is a NY-bred son of Giant's Causeway who won his first four races against mediocre company in New York. However, after a distant 9th in the sloppy track Gotham, he rebounded with a farily close 4th in the Wood. This colt has some nice speed according to Randy Moss' pace figures in the Form; he ran particularly fast early in the Wood to keep within striking distance of War Pass. But that race really fell apart at the end, and I'm just opposed on principle to backing any horses who comes out of a race which finishes up so slowly, even though winning Tale of Ekati ran decently in the Derby. I do expect him to challenge the 3 horse for the lead early, but don't look for him to be around late.

12) Gayego (8-1) is the only horse from the Derby to come back to challenge Big Brown. This colt was coming off an excellent prep, using his fine tactical speed to win the Arkansas Derby with a 103 Beyer that put him in the very upper echelon in this middling-other-than-Big-Brown crop. But he got off to a sluggish start at Churchill, was caught in traffic early and did a steady fade after six furlongs. There's precedent for a horse bouncing back to win the Preakness after a poor Derby - Louis Quartorze and Hansel come to mind. But this horse has done a lot of traveling, having gone back to California after the Derby and now back east. Good for his frequent flier miles, not so good for his chances. Neither is his outside post.

13) Hey Byrn (20-1) started his three-year old year off with a bang, with two lengthy allowance wins before being left in a Big Brown wake in the Florida Derby. He bounced back to win the Holy Bull, but that was a particularly weak stakes field - the second and third place horses were coming straight out of maiden wins. This horse likes to establish position a few lengths off the lead, so the 13 post will require that he be used early, and he's another who could find himself in the vicinity of the favorite early and, therefore, up the track late.

My strategy will be to look for some horses who could come late and pick up the pieces after the early challengers to Big Brown are put in their places. In my opinion, those would be horses like Behindatthebar, Racecar Rhapsody, Yankee Bravo; and perhaps Icabad Crane just for fun at the very bottom of the ticket. If we can successfully leave out Gayego and Kentucky Bear, who should be amongst the second to fourth betting choices in the race, there should be some value to be had in the exotics. Good luck and have a great Preakness day.

John Piesen

Play the top horse to win
Play all horses in exacta, trifecta boxes and in other exotics unless otherwise noted.

Race 1:
#6 Don'ttrythisathome 2-1
#5 Tocqueville 20-1
#1 Road Show 3-1

Race 2:
#2 Media Play 6-1
#5 Motown Shuffle 20-1
#4 Legit Passion 8-1

Race 3: MARYLAND SPRINT HANDICAP
#7 Cognac Kisses 5-2
#4 Starforaday 4-1
#3 Suave Jazz 9-5

Race 4:
#8 Off the Glass 3-1
#10 Shining Punch 7-2
#2X Alphabet Storm 5-1

Race 5: SKIPAT STAKES
#1A Hold That Prospec 4-1
#6 Akronism 8-5
#7 Drama Lady 3-1

Race 6: GALLORETTE HANDICAP (best trifecta box)
#1 Valbenny 3-2
#3 Roshani 2-1
#2 Stormy West 3-1

Race 7: BARBARO STAKES (best exacta box)
#1 Roman Emperor 8-5
#6 Red Sandy 12-1
#5 Da? Tara 6-1

Race 8: OLD MUTUAL TURF SPRINT STAKES
#12 Heros Reward 8-5
#13 Beer Stien 12-1
#14 I've Got Speed 15-1

Race 9: HIRSCH JACOBS STAKES
#8 Force Freeze 2-1 (best bet)
#3 Lantana Mob 8-5
#9 Silver Edition 5-1

Race 10: DIXIE STAKES
#4 Shakis 3-2
#3 Buffalo Man 8-1
#2 Distorted Reality 4-1

Race 11: ALLAIRE DuPONT DISTAFF STAKES
#7 Buy the Barrel 6-1 (best longshot)
#3 Peach Flambe 7-2
#1 Altesse 9-2

Race 12: PREAKNESS STAKES
#6 Racecar Rhapsody 30-1
#7 Big Brown 1-2
#10 Riley Tucker 30-1
#8 Kentucky Bear 15-1
Play #6 To Win & Place
Play a 6-7-8-10 Exacta & Trifecta & Superfecta Box

Race 13:
#7 Basha's Moon 2-1
#5 Homestead Strike 9-2
#3 Short Dancer 5-2

Dave Tuley

Tuleys 1. SHES ALL ELTISH should be able to sit off the lead like she did in her victory two races back in Gulfstreams Bonnie Miss. That was at this races 1 1/8-mile distance. No one else in the field has won a race this far.

Tuleys 2. BSHARPSONATA always gives an honest effort and should be there at the wire. Her loss in the Kentucky Oaks can be attributed to her inheriting the lead by default. She will be tough from the second flight with my top choice.

Tuleys 3. SHERINE won her last race the Grade 2 Comely at Aqueduct wire to wire and is a danger to do it again if the other fillies with speed are held back. Because of dual ownership by Zayat Stables bettors also get the 1a Pious Ashley.

Tuleys long shot SEATTLE SMOOTH is 10-1 on the morning line but if you like Beyer Speed Figures her 89 in winning the Bay Meadows Oaks fits right with the top contenders. Shell be near the back of the pack early but could make a big run especially if running into very fast fractions.

Steve Davidowitz

Davidowitz's 1. SEATTLE SMOOTH is a rapidly developing Julio Canani trainee who appreciated the switch to dirt at Bay Meadows after six okay tries on synthetics. Sharp work for this and Edgar Prado.

Davidowitz's 2. BSHARPSONATA has the speed and overall experience to prove hard to catch. Get an extra $50.00 to bet on this horse by taking advantage of the

Davidowitz's 3. MARENS MEADOW is versatile has good young rider Gabriel Saez and Jones is an absolute ace with fillies e.g. Eight Belles Proud Spell.

Al McMordie

At 6 pm, on Saturday, our Preakness Stakes wager will be a 3-horse Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody, and Kentucky Bear.

When you have a situation such as Saturday's 133rd running of the Preakness Stakes where a horse looks unbeatable, it simply doesn't make sense to try and handicap for the win. Big Brown looks as close to peerless in this race as any Triple Crown horse in recent memory and if you didn't believe it before Wednesday's post-position draw, then his 1-2 morning line should have laid any doubts to rest. I can't ever remember any horse in a Triple Crown race (except perhaps Secretariat or Seattle Slew in the Belmont) being given a morning line like that. Of course, it's possible his odds will change, but if his odds go anywhere, it will be down even further. So what we do in this case is handicap the race as if he weren't running in it and then look for value in the exacta wager. After all, there are 13 horses in the race, which means that there is a good chance that there will be a $40 exacta possibility with Big Brown and a longshot horse. The first thing I will do is throw out the second choice, which is the only other Derby horse who is showing up in the race - Gayego. There are plenty of reasons not to like him. He ran very poorly in the Derby and I'm not buying the excuses of a poor trip or getting bumped or anything like that. Second, he has shipped all over the country in the last 4 weeks (California to Arkansas; back to California; then to Kentucky and back to California, and now across the country again to Maryland). No matter what his connections say, this cannot do him any good. And when he won the Arkansas Derby (his first start on dirt), the race was paceless and set up perfectly for him as he held on to win by a 3/4 of a length. That will not be the case in the Preakness. By eliminating Gayego from the possibility of finishing second, we are eliminating what will likely be a sizable chunk of the exacta pool. The next obvious horse is Todd Pletcher's closer, Behindatthebar. His morning line is 10-1, but it's possible that by post time, he will be co-second choice or even ahead of Gayego in the odds. But as much as I liked this horse in the Lexington Stakes, I'm also going to thow him out of the exacta because of his only other start on a dirt track (in the El Camino Real Derby) which was his worst race and the only time he finished out of the exacta in five lifetime tries.

For my longshot horses to use in the exacta, I'm going to look to the two horses with post positions next to Big Brown. First, on the inside of the favorite in the #6 hole is a horse named Racecar Rhapsody. For this horse to be 30-1 in the morning line is absurd. He is one of the biggest closers in the field, has been extremely competitive on both artificial and dirt surfaces, has raced seven times (all with the same very competent jockey, Robby Albarado, which I love to see) and is trained by the very underrated Kenny McPeak. If this horse is anywhere near 30-1 come race time, he must be used in an exacta box with the big favorite.

On the outside of Big Brown is a lightly-raced horse named Kentucky Bear. Unlike Racecar Rhapsody, this horse has some tactical speed, and if the earlier races show that the Pimlico strip is its usual speed-favoring self, then this horse will have the perfect stalking position outside of Big Brown and may be perfectly positioned to challenge him down the stretch. If the pace is soft up front and there are traffic problems for any of the closers (Racecar, Behindatthebar, Yankee Bravo, Stevil) then I like his chances even better. Kentucky Bear's morning line is 15-1 and his connections of Canadian-based trainer Reade Baker and journeyman jockey Jamie Theriot are going to be unknown to all but the most serious racing fans, but that's a good thing as Baker has a very respectable winning percentage in graded stakes (15%) and Theriot was one of the leading riders at the recently concluded Keeneland meet after moving to Kentucky from the Arkansas-Louisiana circuit last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky Bear's odds creep up closer to 20-1 by post time, and that is going to be fine by me.

Let's go with an Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and Kentucky Bear, and if we're really lucky, Big Brown will finish 2nd to one of the other two horses, but we'll win so long as two of our three horses finish in the top two spots.

Kelso Preakness Stakes

Gayego, Big Brown and Hey Byrd

The Professor's FREE Selections & Analysis of PREAKNESS

Preakness-G1

7-Big Brown 6-5 - Was extremely impressive winning the Ky Derby while earning one of the fastest sheet/speed figs ever recorded in that race. There is always a chance that he'll bounce from his huge efforts in last two races but anything close to his best wins this for fun. He'll be bet into oblivion and will offer little or no value on the win end.

11-Giant Moon 8-1 - Is well rested since finishing a game 4th in the Wood Memorial-G1. Positive rider switch to Dominguez who was aboard all 4 wins. Any improvement puts him in the hunt.

5-Behindatthebar 12-1 - His best races have been on an artificial surface, but is bred to handle the dirt. He may benefit from his late running style if the pace is too hot. Decent chance to earn a share.

13-Hey Byrne 15-1 - Won 3 of his last 4 races earning competitive sheet/speed figs. Is well rested but his far outside post may hinder his chances if caught wide on the first turn.

8-Kentucky Bear 30-1 - Lightly raced colt earned competitive sheet/speed figs in 2 of 3 starts. May surprise at long odds with his best effort.

6-Racecar Rhapsody 3-1 - Deep closer has little chance to take all the marbles but may sneak into the trifecta with a strong late run.

Wagering Strategy-
$1 Trifecta wheel: 7 / 5-6-8-11-13 / 5-6-8-11-12-13 = $25
$1 Exacta wheel (contrarian wager): 5-11-13 / 5-6-8-11-12-13 = $15