TurfnSport
#8 Flying Spur 8/1
#6 Rachel Alexander 3/5
#5 Justwhistledixie 5/2
#4 Gabby's Golden Gal 10/1
#8 Flying Spur earned a career top last out in her runner up finish behind #6 Rachel Alexandra, 1 3/4 lengths separating the duo who meet again here. "Rachel" came out of the FG Oaks to win again, taking the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park while our top pick has been freshened by Mott. She has a steady strong of works since her last start including a trip over the main track here on 4/27. She has a nice pedigree, by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Lakeway ($965K). She has done her best running on off tracks and might catch a wet track today. She will need to run a career top to win here but she is going to be a decent price while the chalk is going to be sitting at less than even money.
#6 Rachel Alexandra comes in here rising a four race win streak that started over the main track here last fall in the G2 Golden Rod. Last out she won the G2 Fantasy over an overmatched field and she won it with tons left in the tank. She popped a couple of bullet works over the main track here since her last outing and will be very tough to beat here. She owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in early pace numbers. Her only real knock is going to be the short price.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8 / 4,5,6,7,8
Prospectus
Kentucky Oaks
#1 Tweeter 82 3/4 nice pattern with a future but to slow to contend against these fire breathers
#2 Be Fair 95 3/4 is cycling back and in another race we would like her but she is slow
#3 Stone Legacy 82 has a future and should keep getting better as long as D Wayne does not over race her, i guess that is king of scorpion and a frog deal though is it not? Way to slow
#4 Gabby's Golden Gal 89 nice pattern and i have herd she lloks great on the track. Would love to own her but she has no chance in here
#5 Justwhistledixie 105 3/4 is fast and has never taken a step back, Fast races for young fillies can some times set them back. Contender at around 2-1
#6 Rachel Alexandra 108 ran an unreal race in the Marth Washington that as we have said before Beyer has to low. The last two are not as good but she has been so wrapped up at the wire it is hard to know. Strong Contender at 2-5
#7 Nan 86 3/4 is not fast enough to compete
#8 Flying Spur 108 is the interesting one, lost 8 points in ground to Rachel in the Oaks and is fresh for a hall of fame trainer. Gomez rides and his Agent Ron Anderson is a fig guy so he knows she is better than she looks. Contender around 5-1 as she is the wise guy horse and has looked great this week
Conclusion
The three favorites are just far better than the others, I guess you could play Flying Spur but Rachel will not lose an inch of ground and this is race iscertainly not a premium play for us. Pass, but there is value in the Oaks Derby Double.
I am going to play the three contenders in this race #5, #6, #8 with the horses we are using in the Derby as we are playing against two favorites in the Derby.
Our Ticket will look like this
5-6-8/ 1-2-3-5-6-10-11-12-15-17-19
Triple press
5-6-8 / 6-15
The Professor:
Kentucky Oaks-G1
Selections are listed in order of preference
The Prof's personal odds-line follows each runner
6-Rachel Alexandra 4-5 - Brilliant filly has 4 straight wins, her last 3 were under wraps at the finish. She dazzled the Churchill clockers in a half-mile work on Monday (46:2 sec). Appears to be a strong favorite on paper but is no bargain at her probable post-time odds of 2-5. Regular rider, Calvin Borel stays aboard for trainer Hal Wiggins.
5-Justwhistledixie 5-2 - Winner of her last 5 races including graded stakes at Gulfstream in her last two. Improving sheet figs in all 7 career starts. Am expecting her to stalk the heavy favorite from a length or two off the pace, waiting to pounce if that one falters. Decent chance to upset at her morning line odds of 5-2. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
8-Flying Spur 15-1 - Was runner-up to Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks-G2 in her last start, losing by less than 2 lengths. May stalk the two favorites from several lengths off the pace, hoping that a cut-throat pace takes its toll on the frontrunners. Outside chance at her 8-1 morning line odds with Garrett Gomez aboard for trainer Bill Mott.
2-Be Fair 15-1 - Lukas trained filly is a notch below the top two contenders, but has enough early speed to gain good position from her inside post. May hit the board at huge odds with a ground saving trip from rider Rafael Bejarano.
4 Gabby's Golden Gal 35-1 - filly appears to have little chance to take top honors but may sneak into the gimmicks at long odds. Victor Espinoza rides.
Wagering Strategy:
$1 Exacta: 5-6 with 2-5-6-8 = $6
$1 Trifecta wheel: 5-6 / 2-5-6-8 / 2-4-5-6-8 = $18
$1 Oaks/Derby Double: 5-6 with 6-13-15 = $6