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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521747

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 7/15/20
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521748

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Kyle Marley

Calvin Kattar (-280) vs. Dan Ige (+240): Kattar via unanimous decision

I really wanted to pick Ige here because I feel this betting line is a bit wide. The -280 gives us implied odds of 73.69 percent, and I don't think I can say Kattar wins this fight that often. He does have the striking edge and the power edge, but Ige has the grappling advantage and isn't completely outgunned on the feet. If this was a three-round fight, I believe Kattar would be lined in the -150 to -200 range. I do think the extra two rounds help him a lot here though, because Ige is much more likely to gas, and I would expect Kattar to win the fourth and fifth rounds. I am going to lean with Kattar as my pick for that reason, but I don't think there is any value in his betting line, and this is dog or pass for me.

Tim Elliott (-125) vs. Ryan Benoit (+105): Elliott via unanimous decision

Elliott gassed hard after just one round in his last fight, and that was only 1 1/2 months ago. I feel really good about Elliott winning round one here as well, but who knows what happens after that because he has not had the time to improve his cardio that much, and he has said he just wants to go out there and have exciting fights these days. I think Elliott could get a submission in the first or second round, or just win them with his pace and wrestling. So, if he can make it to the scorecards, I like him to win. I just think Benoit is going to win round three if it gets there and he could possibly put Elliott out if he doesn't have anything left in the tank. There is no value in Benoit at his line though, so this is actually Elliott or pass for me. He is just very hard to trust. I even think a draw could be in play, with Elliott winning the first two rounds and Benoit getting a 10-8 third.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521749

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Mike McClure

UFC

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige

Top Picks

Abdul Razak Alhassan
Jack Shore
Calvin Kattar
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521750

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Kyle Marley

UFC

Calvin Kattar (-300) vs. Dan Ige (+250): Kattar via decision

I really wanted to pick Ige because I think this betting line is a bit wide. The price gives us implied odds of about 75 precent and I don't think Kattar wins this fight that often. He does have the striking and the power edge, but Ige has the grappling edge and he isn't completely outgunned on the feet. If this was a three-round fight, I think Kattar would be lined in the -150 to -200 range. I think the extra two rounds will help him a lot because I think Ige is much more likely to gas and I would expect Kattar to win rounds 4 and 5. I am going to lean with Kattar as my pick for that reason. He is just the bigger and better striker, but I don't think there is any value in his betting line.

Tim Elliott (-120) vs. Ryan Benoit (+100): Elliot by decision

Elliott fatigued after just one round in his last fight and that was only six weeks ago. I feel confident about Elliott round 1 Wednesday, but who knows what happens after that? He has not had the time to improve his cardio and he has said he just wants to go out there and have exciting fights. Elliott could get a submission in rounds 1 or 2 or just win them with his pace and wrestling. So, if he can make it to the scorecards, I like him to win. I just think Benoit is going to win round 3 if it gets there and he could possibly put Elliott out if he doesn't have anything left in the tank. There is no value in Benoit at this line though, so this is actually Elliott or pass for me. He is just very hard to trust.

Jimmie Rivera (-135) vs. Cody Stamann (+115): Stamann by decision

Rivera has been on a skid, losing three of his past four against top-tier competition. Stamann has been looking better than ever. Rivera is going to be the better striker, but Stamann should have the grappling edge if he can get it to the mat against Rivera's 95 percent takedown defense. This is a close fight and probably one that is 50-50 for me. I see Rivera landing the harder shots, but I think Stamann is live for takedowns, so those factors almost even out and it comes down to pace and aggression. I believe those will be about equal.

Molly McCann (-120) vs. Taila Santos (+100): McCann via decision

Santos is the more technical striker and probably more dangerous with submissions. McCann is the more aggressive, higher-paced striker and she is the one more likely to land takedowns. She can have success with top control and ground-and-pound. Most of Santos' success has come against low-level talent, while McCann has faced and beat the better competition. I just see McCann being the one pushing forward and not giving the space Santos needs to work with and making this more of a dirty fight that fits her style.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-325) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+265): Alhassan via TKO

This is going to be awesome as long as it lasts, and one of these guys is probably getting knocked out. Alhassan is one of the scariest first-round strikers on the UFC roster but he has been away from the sport due to some legal issues. It is a real shame that happened because we probably missed out on two years of this guy's prime and who really knows what to expect now. Lazzez is a striker as well, so he is going to give Alhassan the fight he wants. I have to lean with Alhassan because I think he has more power and has fought and beat the better competition, but I don't know that I would lay over 3-1 because I wouldn't be shocked to see him get knocked out himself.

Khamzat Chimaev (-320) vs. John Phillips (+260): Chimaev via submission

Chimaev took this fight on late notice, but it is a great matchup for him. Phillips is a striker and mainly a brawler. If he can suck Chimaev into a brawl that is ideal for him, but he is knockout-or-bust either way. Chimaev has big power on the feet as well but he should be able to dominate this fight on the ground. When you have an edge like that, there is no real reason to go out there and strike with Phillips when that is your only danger. I think Chimaev gets this fight to the ground fast and works his way to a submission.

Ricardo Ramos (-155) vs. Lerone Murphy (+135): Ramos via submission

Murphy surprised a lot of people in his UFC debut. This is a similar matchup for him in which he is going to need to keep this fight standing to have any chance. Ramos is solid on the feet as well, but he is very inactive, and Murphy could either knock him out or win a decision based on landing more volume and the harder shots. Ramos is the more technical striker, he just doesn't do enough on the feet to trust him takedowns. He should have a big edge on the ground and Murphy was taken down six times in his last fight, so I believe Ramos will have success there.

Modestas Bukauskas (-220) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+190): Michailidis via TKO

Michailidis is taking this fight on short notice in a higher weight class, so he will be the smaller guy in this matchup. I can't say I was impressed with either guy, but I was more impressed by Michailidis and I think he could have success with leg kicks and possibly get a knockout. Bukauskas didn't look bad anywhere, but he also didn't look good and I think size and cardio are his two big advantages. I would say Bukauskas is the rightful favorite, but I don't know that he wins this fight 70 percent or more of the time as the odds imply. So I will go ahead and pick the underdog to get a stoppage.

Jared Gordon (-145) vs. Chris Fishgold (+125): Gordon via decision

This should be a fun, high paced fight. I give Gordon the edge on the feet and Fishgold the edge on the ground. Gordon might have the wrestling to keep this fight standing, and Fishgold might have the power to test Gordon's weak chin on the feet. I think Fishgold probably needs a finish, but I give Gordon the edge on pace and cardio. The longer this fight goes, the more it should favor him.

Diana Belbita (-160) vs. Liana Jojua (+140): Belbita via unanimous decision

Both of these fighters are coming off losses in their UFC debuts, but Jojua looked really bad in hers and I have to think her best shot of a victory is an armbar. I expect Belbita to be the better all-around fighter and she is my pick. She isn't very good either, so she is hard to trust, but this looks like it could be the perfect UFC matchup for her.

Jack Shore (-700) vs. Aaron Phillips (+500): Shore via submission

Shore should dominate this fight with his wrestling and grappling. I expect that is what he will do, but he is a guy that needs to do that in all his fights because that is where his strength lies. Phillips is a lower-level fighter, so maybe Shore looks to test out his striking. If that is the case, no chance would I lay -700, but we have no way of knowing that and I just have to expect him to have the smart game plan of getting this fight to the mat.

Kenneth Bergh (-145) vs. Jorge Gonzalez (+125): Gonzalez via TKO

This is basically a striker versus grappler matchup. Gonzalez is the striker and he is taking this fight on short notice. He has only been out of the first round one time in his career, so I feel like this is probably early knockout-or-bust for him either way. I think Gonzalez is live for the knockout win, so I will take him to get the job done.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521751

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Brandon Wise

UFC

Ranked featherweights top the card Wednesday as sixth-ranked Calvin Kattar takes on No. 10-ranked Dan Ige in the main event of UFC Fight Night at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. Kattar is a -300 sportsbook favorite (risk $300 to win $100), while Ige is a +250 underdog (risk $100 to win $250) in the latest William Hill odds for Kattar vs. Ige.

Before making any UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige picks, you NEED to see the UFC predictions from SportsLine MMA expert Brandon Wise. He has been covering the sport for more than five years. He specializes in picking main-card fights for UFC, which has enabled him to be profitable every year! In fact, Wise went a perfect 5-0 at UFC 239 and was 4-1 at both UFC 245 and UFC 249. He also nailed Khabib Nurmagomedov's destruction of Conor McGregor in 2018, Stipe Miocic's upset of Daniel Cormier, Max Holloway's downfall in 2019 and Justin Gaethje's TKO victory over Tony Ferguson in May.

Since the UFC returned following a two-month period of inactivity due to the coronavirus pandemic, Wise has gone 29-13 while nailing the method of victory 20 times. Wise has yet to have a losing record for a pay-per-view UFC card, and is coming off a 4-1 mark for a profit of 3.00 units at UFC 251 last week.


Calvin Kattar (-300) vs. Dan Ige (+250): Kattar by TKO

Ige is getting this opportunity after a couple of impressive performances against Edson Barboza and Mirsad Bektic. But this is truly the deep end of the pool against Kattar. The Boston native has insane power and a huge frame for the division. He's starting to figure out the rest of his game and should be able to dispatch Ige with relative ease.

Tim Elliott (-120) vs. Ryan Benoit (+100): Elliott by decision

Neither fighter carries a particularly impressive resume, but I lean on the veteran and his experience against the elite of the division. Despite being 2-5 and a loser of three straight, Elliott has faced Demetrious Johnson, Louis Smolka, Ben Nguyen, Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov during that run since December 2016. His style is awkward enough to confuse and frustrate Benoit, who has alternated wins and losses over his last nine since 2013.

Jimmie Rivera (-135) vs. Cody Stamann (+115): Rivera by decision

This is a tough spot for Rivera. He's coming off losses in three of his last four against mostly elite competition (Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes) and needs to right the ship quickly. This is a massive step up in competition for Stamann after losing his only other step-up in the UFC (against Sterling). He picked up an emotional victory last month after his younger brother died the week of his fight. It's tough to get back up for another fight, and this feels like a really tough matchup in which to do it.

Molly McCann (-120) vs. Taila Santos (+100): McCann by decision

McCann is on a roll after dropping her UFC debut in 2018. The Englishwoman has won three straight -- all by decision -- and looked much more calm and relaxed. She gets a green opponent coming off a loss in her UFC debut who has been out of action for nearly 18 months. Look for "Meatball" to control this fight from the onset and score a strong decision win.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-325) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+265): Alhassan by TKO

This is a big spot for Alhassan after nearly two years out of competition. He carries a massive amount of power in both hands with 10 knockouts in 11 career wins. It will be the UFC debut for Lazzez, who also has eight TKOs in nine pro wins but has yet to face this level of competition. Expect some early fireworks, but the better fighter gets the stoppage eventually.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521752

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 All Under Control Stalker was a distant 2nd to a romping winner in fast time in his local bow, drew perfectly for a potent Silva barn (31%), and will be tracking what looks like a hot pace; look out.
#2 Go Away GP invader enters off a win in the slop last time for Walder but now makes his local debut for an ice cold Van Winkle barn, so while he hits hard, he's an underlay too; second-best.
#4 Clear the Mine ML favorite will like the race flow and was just a solid 3rd to a loose #7, who won't clear here, but he's also off the claim for Villafranco (14%) and no longer with Silva; tread lightly.
Race Summary That 6-1 ML seems very fair on the 1, who has a lot of positives in a race where some of the main contenders have a few knocks, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as to kick off the late Pk4, since a a win at double digit odds, in a deep field, would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Aife Fair Grounds miss looked good winning two of her last three in NOLA and her only blemish was when in way over her head two-back, has a lot more tactical speed than her main rival, and will be a solid price too; look out.
#8 Winning Envelope The obvious gal to beat wins this with her best, as she's a classier filly than the pick, but she also will be overbet, and has a decided lack of early speed, which may leave her with too much to do in the lane; runs out of room.
#1 Firstmate The best of the locals is 2-for-2 here on the grass and enters off a state-bred stakes win, and while this is obviously a sizable step up in class, she's in the mix on figures, drew well, and will be a nice price too; exotics appeal.
Race Summary That 4-1 ML makes the 4 very playable, especially since the 8 will be open lengths behind her when they exit the far turn, so play her in all the slots, and especially to 10% takeout Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since budget players might be singling the chalk, which means a win by the pick would knock out a lot of tickets in both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Polarcents MSW dropper will relish this easier crew, as not only did he face some toughies in his first here last time, but he was in against much better at WRD and OP too; looks like his time.
#4 Biscottini ML chalk was a distant 4th in a lightning fast race for the level last time, so a repeat would make him a major player, though at 5-2 he would be tough to take; underlaid contender.
#9 Alittle Bit Techie The wildcard comes in off a good then bad race at GG on the Tapeta for Wong and now goes to Diodoro, who we know is aces, but that dud last time makes you worry; tabbing today.
Race Summary There's plenty of reason to like the 3, and unlike the 4 and 9, he's ever been in this light on the class scale, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get a bit of additional value by keying him in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since both the other two main contenders will take plenty of action, even though it's the pick who looks like he's getting all the best of it here.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521753

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 No Way Never Gets into an easier spot here and owns some back sprint races that would be very tough with these. Likely second choice looks like the one.
#7 Alasaal Drops in with easier company tonight, but he's likely to be overbet here and tends to give away ground late in the lane.
#4 R Paper Chaser Even comeback run stacks up nicely enough with these, and any step forward in this second start off the bench would keep him in the mix at a price.
Race Summary No Way Never and Alasaal look tough here, and maybe trying to get R Paper Chaser to split them in the gimmicks is the way to make this race pay.

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#9 J W Ruckus Should get a pretty dreamy go of things from right up on a fairly modest set of splits, and he can probably stick around a bit better with that roughly 90-day comeback run out of the way.
#2 Stormcoast Steps up off a nice win with conditioned claiming company, and though he has found this level a bit tough in the past, this isn't the deepest bunch for this kind.
#6 Rum on the Rocks Reliable turf efforts locally have him right in the mix again with these, and he'd be plenty interesting at anything like the 9/2 ML offering.
Race Summary J W Ruckus should get a nice run from near the top, and his overall form is competitive with what it'd take to win in this spot. Expecting better tonight.

Mountaineer - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Come on City Has positional pace to find a good spot near the top early on, and that was a solid comeback off the long layoff last out.
#6 Violet Blue No clue what to make of this one off the long layoff while dropping out of GIII company. Plenty of back turf tries fit, but something tells me she's not coming back running like she was last summer.
#1 Pride of Wilko Loves the local lawn with an 11-for-18 career record here, and she posted a nice win off the layoff last out that should have her set for something even better here.
Race Summary Come on City is interesting off the good run last time out, and she's probably capable of something a little bit better this time around.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521754

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 SWEET LULLABY Shrugged off odds-on favorite with ease, can’t go beyond.
#4 ALWAYS ARTISTIC Four deep in outer flow, rode rail in stretch, just missed second.
#1 RACING FOR RICK No threat to pace-setting winner, Miller’s choice over ‘Artistic.’
Race Summary Sweet Lullaby parked the 1-to-2 favorite and had plenty left to prevail against many of the same rivals she meets today. Key her on all exotic wagers and play a 6-4-ALL trifecta.

The Meadows - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 TEGGERS HANOVER Surprising rally at 90-1, taken to upset with favorable post switch.
#8 BIG KIZ Seeks third consecutive victory with Palone.
#7 AMERICA FIRST Chased Big Kiz from the pocket but couldn’t reach as odds-on choice.
Race Summary Teggers Hanover launched a strong 3- and 4-wide rally in the final quarter mile to finish third at 90-1. He could turn the tables on the favorites with a rail starting spot. Play 1-7 and 1-8 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 SMUDGE Met streaking rival in latest, can sustain bid in this field.
#1 MATTY WILL Invader has best recent speed figures but 0-56 record to go with it.
#8 MAX PLAY Led long way in traffic-marred race, will be underlay as a result.
Race Summary Smudge rallied mildly in the middle half against a 1-to-9 rival who was winning for the fourth consecutive time. He can run past these with a similar-type move. Play 2-1 and 2-8 exacta.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 7/15/20 2 months 1 week ago #521755

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Pert Was up in time in 2 of her last 3 and her only Gulfstream start produced a victory; can be in a good position throughout.
#4 Miss My Macho On the board in 4 of her last 5 at Gulfstream and was a sharp winner for a higher price two races back; can apply the pressure throughout.
#2 Interest Dropped in class last time and was haltered by the Sanchez stable; ran 2nd in that one and has taken 3 of 5 at Gulfstream.
Race Summary Pert scored nicely on or near the front end last out and has shown she can be comfortable positioned anywhere in the field.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 American Phenom Didn't break well and can rolling for a 4th-place finish and was claimed out of that by the Crichton barn; steps up to maiden special company and has trained well for this.
#2 R Private Jet Has been impressive during morning activities and the Baxter stable has the Khozan gelding ready for his initial try; he's bred to sprint on grass.
#3 Chamberlain Has been outrun on the main track and can improve in moving to the turf; has the advantage in experience.
Race Summary American Phenom is an American Pharoah colt originally purchased by $340K and was claimed for $50K in his 1st start; trainer Crichton has given him plenty of time between starts and he should be effective in stepping up in class.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Thissmytime Was outstanding in a fast score last time and likely will be dismissed at a decent price; worth the chance.
#6 Loriloupies Clearly will be the favorite after easy wins in her last two; has fast works and will be extremely tough here.
#7 Cajun Delight Gave way early in a stakes race in her latest after an easy maiden win; has plenty of works and fits in this spot.
Race Summary Thissmytime was up in time in her 3rd career start and can make a solid challenge; started out at Belmont, where she was 3rd fall.
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