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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 1 day ago #521525

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 6/20/20
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 1 day ago #521526

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Kyle Marley

UFC

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $21,000.

Marley has hit a WHOPPING 10 consecutive UFC main-event picks, a streak that includes five straight upsets! Last week at UFC Fight Night, Marley kept his hot streak rolling by predicting a unanimous-decision victory for Cynthia Calvillo (-135) against Jessica Eye (+110) in the main event. He also called a win for Marvin Vettori (-200) against Karl Roberson (+175) in the co-main event.


Here are Marley's picks and analysis for UFC Fight Night (odds from William Hill US):

Curtis Blaydes (-400) vs. Alexander Volkov (+320): Blaydes via TKO

Volkov is likely going to need a knockout to win. He is the more technical striker, but I don't see him being able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to win three rounds. Blaydes lands 6.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and that is exactly what he is going to do. He is a beast with takedowns and he lands heavy ground-and-pound in top control. I think he could win this fight on the scorecards if it goes that long, but I see him getting a knockout. It most likely comes from ground-and-pound, but it wouldn't shock me to see him get the KO on the feet, either.

Shane Burgos (-135) vs. Josh Emmett (+115): Burgos via decision

I think Burgos is the cleaner striker and should be the guy landing more volume. He has susceptible defense and Emmett throws big power. I think Emmett is live for an upset knockout but, if he doesn't get it, I see Burgos getting his hand raised. I think he could get a finish of his own but the mostly likely outcome is that he gets a win on the scorecards.

Raquel Pennington (-140) vs. Marion Reneau (+120): Pennington via decision

Reneau is 42 years old now and coming off back-to-back losses. I don't know what Reneau we are getting, so she is too hard to trust. If this was Reneau from a couple years ago, then I would take these odds because I think it would be a 50-50 fight. I think she is on the way out and I am going to take Pennington to win a 15-minute striking battle.

Belal Muhammad (-145) vs. Lyman Good (+125): Muhammad via decision

If this was just a striking match, I would probably take Good. I think he will be the one throwing more volume on the feet and he is the more dangerous striker as well. However, Muhammad can keep this close on the feet and his big edge is on the ground. He is a solid wrestler and Good doesn't have much to offer off his back. I think Muhammad could get a submission on the ground, but I think he most likely uses his top control time to land strikes and win the judges over that way.

Roosevelt Roberts (-230) vs. Jim Miller (+195): Roberts via decision

Roberts is coming off one of the most impressive performances of his career and, at this point in their careers, I think he is probably better everywhere. Miller is still dangerous on the ground but, at 36 years old, we have seen the best of him. I would say Roberts is the better wrestler so if he wants to keep this standing, I think he can do so. He could have success on the ground as well, but I see him being the faster guy on the feet and winning mainly with his striking.

Bobby Green (-230) vs. Clay Guida (+195): Green via TKO

Green is the better striker, so Guida's path to victory is going to be his wrestling. I think Guida could have success with takedowns and, if he can get them, then he can win rounds. But Green is probably going to piece him up on the feet and stuff most takedowns. If Guida gets takedowns, Green is more likely to get back up than be submitted. I am going to take him to get the win via TKO or decision.

Brianna Van Buren (-200) vs. Tecia Torres (+175): Van Buren via decision

I like Van Buren and I think she has championship-caliber potential. She is a great wrestler and she can have an edge there against basically anybody in the division. She has decent striking as well and can win this fight anywhere. Torres is scrappy and can keep this fight close, but I see Van Buren landing the harder shots with more volume and she always has the wrestling she can fall back on.

Oskar Piechota (-130) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+110): Barriault via TKO

I think Piechota is going to be the better fighter for one round. After that, he starts to slow down and, the longer this fight goes, the more it should shift in favor of Barriault. Barriault has more power and the better cardio and that could be enough to get the job done. I think he will need to win rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised, but I could see him getting a late finish.

Gillian Robertson (-120) vs. Cortney Casey (+100): Casey via TKO

The ground game is where this fight is going to be interesting. Both fighters can finish on the ground, but Robertson is going to be the one aggressively looking to get the fight to the mat. She is completely outgunned on the feet, so her only shot is the ground game. Casey's weakness is being put on her back, but she does have submissions and I don't think Robertson can aggressively wrestle for a hard three rounds. If Robertson doesn't get a submission, she could be in trouble. I like Casey to pretty much dominate while this fight is on the feet and, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor her.

Matt Frevola (-115) vs. Frank Camacho (-105): Frevola via decision

This could be the Fight of the Night. I think on the feet this should be a banger and likely a high-paced fight. Camacho is probably the one that will be landing more volume, but Frevola is the one more likely to take this fight to the mat. I think either guy could get knocked out, but if this fight goes the distance, Frevola is more likely to get his hand raised.

Roxanne Modafferi (-120) vs. Lauren Murphy (+100): Murphy via decision

I like Murphy on the feet, but I'd slightly favor Modafferi on the mat. I think Modafferi is the better grappler, but I don't know that she is the better wrestler. If she can't get the fight to the mat, she gets out-struck on the feet. If she can get the fight to the mat, she can keep Murphy on her back or even find a submission. But I am going to take Murphy because I think she can stuff takedowns and have enough success on the feet to get her hand raised.

Max Rohskopf (-155) vs. Austin Hubbard (+135): Rohskopf via submission

Rohskopf is making his UFC debut here on a week's notice. He looks like a solid prospect and he is very solid on the ground. He has good wrestling and grappling, and he should have a huge edge on the mat. He will be at a disadvantage on the feet, and I'd say power is the only attribute he would be better at in the striking game. Hubbard can be taken down, and if Rohskopf get it to the mat, he can finish this fight.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 1 day ago #521527

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Mike McClure

UFC

Before setting your MMA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov

At UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo, McClure was all over Julia Avila as his top pick. The results: Avila knocked out Gina Mazany in the first round, and anybody who followed McClure's advice was poised for a profitable day. Now, McClure has set his sights Saturday's huge UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov card.


Top Picks

Curtis Blaydes
Bobby Green
Brianna Van Buren
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 1 day ago #521528

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1/ST Race of the Week: Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park

June 18, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $300,000 ACORN STAKES AT BELMONT PARK
Saturday, June 20, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Belmont Stakes Day features 5 stakes on Saturday, including the kickoff to the 2020 Triple Crown in the main event. But the 3-year-old fillies will set the table in the 1-mile Acorn in Race 8, which kicks off the day's late pick 5 and also is a part of a middle pick 5 from Races 6-10 that includes 4 stakes.

​Field Depth:
PERFECT ALIBI is the field's only Grade 1 winner and also has won at the Grade 2 level. LUCREZIA is Grade 2-placed. The rest are rising in class. Given that PERFECT ALIBI's form all came against juveniles in 2019, declaring a discernible class edge isn't as obvious as it might seem. Class won't be the handicapping tool here.

Pace:
GAMINE brings rail speed from California, while GLASS CEILING, LUCREZIA and CASUAL should be in the next flight. The pace looks fair, but not fall-apart fast.

Our Eyes:
PERFECT ALIBI certainly has the credentials from her freshman campaign. But the Mark Casse trainee has been away since her fourth in the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She's 4: 3-1-0 in 1-turn races and no doubt will be tough if she delivers on her 2019 form (which included a second in Belmont's Astoria). But according to 1/ST BET stats, the Casse barn is 9: 0-1-0 since 2014 with horses off 6-8 months in graded stakes at a mile or more. PERFECT ALIBI never ran particularly fast at 2 and her workouts now don't indicate a blaze in the works. I'll take a shot against her.

GAMINE has won both starts, a Santa Anita maiden sprint and an Oaklawn route allowance, with varying degrees of difficulty. She beat 3 rivals in her unveiling at 1-9 odds and was never in doubt as a $1.8 million purchase is supposed to look in that situation. The Oaklawn test was more stern against 11 runners. She wired the field and held on by a neck to defeat Speech, who since returned to finish second in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. GAMINE hasn't dazzled the eye in the morning since her Oaklawn trip, studying her XBTV.com library in training against an overmatched LA-bred maiden named Dodger in recent weeks. But Baffert has put her behind that runner and has tried to teach her some patience. Baffert runners who exited Oaklawn races returned to go a rousing 4: 3-1-0 at Santa Anita, including 2 stakes wins. From the rail under Belmont star John Velazquez, I suspect those morning patience lessons will be tossed to the wind. She should set the pace. Intra-race, I'll try to beat her. But if playing multi-race exotics, you'll want to include her and not be so brazen to lose a pick 4 or pick 5 by taking a big stand.

CASUAL has a monster Steve Asmussen legacy pedigree, sired by 2-time local Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Curlin and out of 2003 Acorn runner-up and eventual local Gallant Bloom winner Lady Tak. Like Gamine, she's 2-for-2 in her career over 2 different tracks, a maiden sprint at Oaklawn and a May 22 Churchill Downs allowance. She was very strong on the back end of 7 furlongs most recently, netting a 102 BRIS late pace figure. If she can track the speed, give his unbeaten filly a big chance to punch past in the stretch. Her millionaire mama started her career 5-for-5, and her $10 million-earning papa began 3-for-3 winning the 2007 Arkansas Derby in this spot in his form cycle.

Also with pedigree to play is the Shug McGaughey legacy filly PLEASANT ORB. She's merely sired by the barn's 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and out of its Breeders' Cup Distaff-winning mare Pleasant Home, who won her signature race at Belmont Park no less. But PLEASANT ORB doesn't campaign for McGaughey; she's in the Barclay Tagg barn. And that outfit has Belmont Stakes heavy favorite Tiz the Law on the launching pad Saturday. I love when a barn gets all of its major players on time for the same major race date like this. PLEASANT ORB exits a better-than-it-looks third in a tougher-than-it-looks listed stakes at Gulfstream, which was won by multiple graded winner Tonalist's Shape. PLEASANT ORB checked into the clubhouse turn, then was stopped cold on the far turn before making a third run in the race. She flattened out in the lane once unable to reel in the heavy 1-to-2 favorite and hung late. A rider change to Manny Franco and a cleaner trip might do her wonders.

LUCREZIA was runner-up in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, a race that looked even better when its winner Swiss Skydiver traveled west to add the Grade 2 Santa Anita Derby to her resume. LUCREZIA has a pressing running style and from post 2 likely will have to work hard to keep up with GAMINE to her inside. She hasn't missed a beat training at Fair Hill in Maryland for Arnaud Delacour since that runner-up in March. She's come home very well in her last 2 routes, and patient Julien Leparoux suits her well.

The field also includes 17-1 Busher Stakes upsetter WATER WHITE for Rudy Rodriguez and class-rising GLASS CEILING for Danny Gargan. Neither trainer ever is an easy toss on the NYRA circuit and both exit victories.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: CASUAL is perfect so far, has a pedigree for greatness and should get a great trip just behind the speed with a chance to pounce.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: PLEASANT ORB was 19-1 last out when third in listed company and probably won't draw any more than fifth-choice in the field of 7. But she's a contender.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 win CASUAL. $10 exacta CASUAL over PLEASANT ORB.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 1 day ago #521529

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Cappers Access

UFC (Sat) Curtis Blaydes -400
UFC (Sat) Josh Emmett +
UFC (Sat) Raquel Pennington -185
UFC (Sat) Lyman Good +
UFC (Sat) Roosevelt Roberts -250
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 12 hours ago #521535

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Belmont Stakes (Race #10)

Courtesy of the Horse Racing Newtork on June 19.

At long last, the Belmont Stakes is Saturday, albeit with a much different feel as the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown and at a shorter distance of 1 1/8 miles.

Tiz the Law is the strong favorite, with a 6-5 morning line. Sole Volante is next at 9-2, followed by Dr Post at 5-1.

Here is how Horse Racing Nation's team is playing the Belmont Stakes, with free past performances available to help you come to your own conclusions.

Jarrod Horak
Winner: #9 Dr Post
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #8 Tiz the Law
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerA couple of pace scenarios are possible. Tap It To Win comes out from post No. 1 with the lead and never looks back, or he is pressured early and one of the stalkers prevails. Tiz the Law might be in the right spot behind the speed, and Dr Post should be perched just outside the favorite.
Todd Pletcher's lightly raced colt might be able to go right on by if he moves forward. Max Player is the upsetter. He showed promise in all three starts and has upside. Sole Volante and Farmington Road should be finishing and can be used underneath.
Wagers: #9 to win; exacta 1-3-9/8; trifecta 1-8-9/1-8-9/3; trifecta key 8/2-3-5; superfecta 1-9/1-8-9/1-2-3-8-9/1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10

Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #4 Modernist, #10 Pneumatic
Long shot: #2 Sole VolanteAs shown in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), Tiz the Law wants to run outside of horses. In this race, he drew Post 8 in a one-turn route, giving him the best chance to establish a comfortable position clear of traffic and pull off a popular win.
For value, Modernist and Pneumatic are both developing horses who could move forward. Sole Volante is not a threat to win, but he figures to pick off tired horses for a piece.

Ryan Dickey
Winner: #2 Sole Volante
Hit the board: #8 Tiz the Law, #5 Farmington Road
Long shot: #4 ModernistI expect a very hot early pace, and that sets up best for Sole Volante. Obviously Tiz the Law is the best on paper but will be an underlay of epic proportions. Using Sole Volante on top, and hoping Farmington Road follows that one to hit the board at a price. Using Modernist underneath as well.

Matt Shifman
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #2 Sole Volante, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #9 Dr PostIf you're putting Tiz the Law on top then just play one exacta with your second choice. No sense reducing your profit margin with other combinations.

Laurie Ross
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #2 Sole Volante, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerKey #8 over #2,#1 with #2,#1,#3, with #2,#1,#3,#10,#9,#4

Brian Brinkmeyer
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #2 Sole Volante
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerAfter his last layoff, Tiz the Law returned in the Florida Derby with a solid performance in the Holy Bull. I see no reason that we won't see this same result in the Belmont Stakes against this field.
Tap It to Win and Sole Volante are returning very quickly, but their connections seem awfully confident that they will give Tiz the Law a serious challenge while Max Player is my sleeper crack the top three.

Candice Curtis
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #10 Pneumatic, #3 Max Player
Long shot: #4 ModernistThe race goes through #8 Tiz the Law. He is training like a beast, is best coming off a modest layoff, and is going one-turn at Belmont, where he ran one of his best races. He is deservedly the favorite. I'll build my TRI/SUPER tickets around him in 1st, with #10 Pneumatic and #2 Sole Volante in second, and #3 Max Player, #4 Modernist, #9 Dr. Post in 3rd/4th.
I'll have some WPS money on #4 Modernist and #10 Pneumatic since Mott & Asmussen have recent success in the Belmont Stakes and their charges will have value.

Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #10 Pneumatic
Hit the board: #8 Tiz the Law, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #4 ModernistPneumatic is coming into the Belmont in good form. Fresh off a game 3rd place finish in the Matt Winn Stakes. His high cruising speed will put him with the leaders early on, but he will have to get a clean break to avoid being caught wide. Posted strong five furlong work two weeks ago, cutting to one turn could be the difference.
Tiz the Law is the class of the field. Winner of multiple G1s, including the Florida Derby last time out, he'll be stalking the leaders at the jump. He's already won going the one turn at Belmont Park. If he runs his race, he'll be tough to beat.
Tap It To Win, comes off a very sharp allowance victory 15 days ago. He went to the front and never looked back, nearly breaking the track record in the process. With the rail, I expect him to be in front early on, if he uses his speed to get the jump, he could be tough to catch.
Modernist posted a sharp five furlong work last weekend to confirm his spot in this race. He has speed and the ability to stalk, he has won at this distance multiple times, including the Risen Star early in February. If he can work out a good trip, and stay out of trouble, he's in for the upset chance. I will play 10-8-1-4 superfecta.

Mary Dixon Reynolds
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #8 Tiz the Law
Long shot: #9 Dr Post
Everyone's ready for the first leg of the Triple Crown, and for the first time, it begins with the Belmont. Trained by Barclay Tagg and by Constitution, Tiz The Law is the one to beat. He's the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 victory and he's been firing on all cylinders this year. He also loves the track and the adjusted nine-furlong distance from its original 12 should serve him well.
Tap It To Win shouldn't be overlooked. Mark Casse always has his horses ready. If he wins, it will be his third Triple Crown win in a row. Casse won the Belmont last year with Sir Winston and the Preakness with War of Will.

Nick Costa
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #9 Dr Post
Long shot: #4 ModernistTiz The Law would be undefeated if not for a boxed in trip in the slop at Churchill Downs last fall. The NY-bred easily took care of business in his two starts in Florida. He has won at this distance and on the Belmont surface. Far and above the most talented of the group.

Tap It To Win is coming off back-to-back wins, including a big score over this surface two weeks ago. Although, this is a different level of class, the speedy runner could take them a long way on the front-end.
Dr Post is a bit light on experience, with only 3 lifetime races, but he's progressing nicely and overcame adversity last out to win. Has successfully handled additional real estate in both starts this year, so the extra ground here appears viable. Retains the services of Belmont's leading rider.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 12 hours ago #521536

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Vinnie Iyer

Belmont Stakes picks:

With the Belmont Stakes replacing the Kentucky Derby as the first Triple Crown race and the Preakness as the shortest one, it sets up for a predictable result and no surprise on top, especially with the extra time to rest and prepare.

Tiz The Law has everything in his favor, with the right speed for the right length. Max Player is set up to sneakily emerge as a real challenger until right near the end. Tap It To Win will build enough momentum early to make sure he will at least settle for third.

Win: Tiz The Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Tap It To Win
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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Pick 4 Analysis

June 20, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has another giant 18-race card ready to go this evening with the first post at 6:00 EST. My focus will be on the 0.50 Pick 4 that starts in Race 10. The competitive sequence has a 15% takeout.

On Friday, Tim Tetrick was the driver with the hottest hands winning six races. The top conditioners with two wins each were Nancy Takter, Nifty Norman and Scott Di Domenico.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

3-Guardian Angel As (3-1)-That was a big-time effort in 1st start off the bench versus a strong winner from the 8-hole at ScD. Starts inside of main foes, should be tighter than in last outing and was Tetrick's choice over #10.
4-JL Cruze (7/2)-Even effort last week in 1st race since the restart. Usually in the mix at the Big M and has won 21 of 50 in East Rutherford. Dunne should have in striking range at the top of the lane.
10-Crystal Fashion (9/2)-Qualified on a sloppy track and that effort was fine. No doubt this is a tough post draw, but the pace could be very quick. If so, Miller should find some live cover and might roll by everyone down the lane.

Race 11

2-Odds On Delray (7/2)-The 6/8 qualifier at Gaitway was very good. Yonkers invader has 1 win in 10 Big M starts but will respect chances with this post draw.
5-Campora N (10-1)-Has been competitive in Big M starts winning 1 of 3 and should offer a square price. Fits with this group and had a 54.3 back half in 6/5 qualifier here. Looking for D. Miller to put in play.
9-Numbered Account (8-1)-Winner of 7 of 27 in 2019 usually does best work on a smaller oval. Tuned-up nicely in dual qualifiers at Gaitway, will take a swing with Tetrick in this spot and leave #10, the program chalk off my ticket.

Race 12

2-Vettel N (6-1)-Both qualifiers at Gaitway were sharp. The Jen B. stable has been cold but won a race last night. Will use and hope it's time for her barn to wake-up.
6-Another Daily Copy (9/2)-Finished 8th in a quick mile versus better in 1st start off the lay-off. Johnson barn has been doing well and this looks like a spot to shine. 8-year-old has won 5 of 26 starts at the Big M and A. Miller will likely leave.
7-Western Joe (3-1)-Big effort at even money in 1st start and now Gingras takes the lines. Fits with this crew and likes the track winning at 33% clip (11-33).

Race 13

5-The Devils Own N (3-1)-New Zealand bred has looked good in 3 local starts and now steps-up off a nice win. Loses Dunn to #7 but will respect chances with D. Miller for back-to-back picture.
7-Franco Totem N (5-1)-Drops out of Opens and has beaten better than this at the Big M. Deserves respect and Norman barn took a couple of pictures last night.
8-Closing Statement (7/2)-Won at this class on 6/6 with a 53.2 last half. Will need another big try from this post but McCarthy can grind his way around and put into striking at the top of the lane.

0.50 Pick 4

3,4,10/2,5,9/2,6,7/5,7,8
Total Bet=$40.50
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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 6/20/20

June 20, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Saturday, June 20, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Utalknboutpractice; 7-Count Alexei

Forecast: Count Alexei lost a heartbreaker in his racing debut over this course and distance last month, flashing good speed to make pace, opening up into the lane while appearing home free but then getting tagged right on the money in a legitimate race for the level. The B. Koriner barn has excellent stats with second-timers so we’re expecting this Cal-bred son of Vronsky to run at least as well if not better while facing what probably is a lesser group than he encountered first time out. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and may go lower. Utalknboutpractice, fourth in the same race ‘Alexei exits, walked out of the gate, fell far back, found room to rally into the lane, put in a good run from the quarter pole until the sixteenth pole, and then lost some of his steam in the final stages. He’s another from a barn (P. Miller) whose second-timers usually move forward, so if this son of Just Phillip breaks better today he could be a danger. The monumental jockey switch to F. Prat won’t hurt, either. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Count Alexei.
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RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Keeper Of the Stars

Forecast: This year’ edition of the Wilshire S.-G3 drew seven starters, two of which will get most of the play. The easy way out is to double the race using both favorites in rolling exotic play, but there will be little wagering value in taking that approach, so we’ll zero in on Keeper Ofthe Stars. The daughter of Midnight Lute has developed in a versatile and consistent performer in the West Coast distaff middle distance turf ranks, and after winning both the Buena Vista S.-G2 and the Gamely S.-G1 over the local lawn we’re expecting the J. Wong-trained filly to fire another winning shot. Equally effective on the lead or from a second flight stalking position, she continues to train well, and may even have more improvement in her. It’s tough to fault Toinette – she’s a perfect four-for-four over the Santa Anita turf course - and although she’s been away since early December the daughter of Scat Daddy has shown the ability to fire a winning shot fresh. If it turns out that she’s simply the better filly, so be it.
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RACE 3: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Adens Dream; 5-Jan’s Reserve

Forecast: We’ll double this five-runner $32,000 claiming sprint, with Jan’s Reserve given a very slight edge on top over Adens Dream in a race in which early pace projects to be moderate at best. Jan’s Reserve is winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track but exits a strong, productive race, has breezed very well since that mid-May allowance dash (his first start in more than a year) and takes a realistic drop in class for the money run while landing the cozy outside draw. The M. Puype barn has superior stats with second-off-layoff runners and this son of Ready’s Image is plenty fast enough on pure numbers. Adens Dream may be the controlling speed and given that type of trip he could be hard to run down. He’s a first-off-the-claim for the capable A. Kitchingman outfit, switches to the barn’s go-to rider E. Maldonado and is a tough, veteran gelding who knows how to win races. On his best day, he’s more than capable of wiring this field.
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RACE 4: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Sweet Sonny; 8-Moonhall Milly; 9-Vegas Palm; 11-Officious

Forecast: This turf sprint for maiden special weight fillies and mares drew a full field of 12, and that’s always nice to see. We’ll go four deep in our rolling exotics and hope to get a decent price home. Sweet Sonny flashed good speed for a half in a similar spot in her debut last month before gradually weakening and has returned to train very well for trainer B. Koriner, whose second-timers often step forward in their next outings. A sharp recent drill gives hope that this daughter of Twirling Candy will do just that, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top and hope she can secure the early lead and roll all the way to the wire. Moonhall Milly, a close third in the same race Sweet Sonny finished seventh in, broke slowly in that race and then rushed up to be within range inside before staying on well to hit the board. If she leaves with her field today, the Irish-bred filly could be hard to handle and may, in fact, go favored. Vegas Palm, a good second in that same race, seems to have found her niche as a turf sprinter (draw a line through her route races and she’s pretty good) and the G. Mandella-trained mare is a “must use” in the exotics. Hopefully, she gets the patient ride she prefers. Officious was well-beaten in her only outing last fall and was stopped on; it’s certainly possible she’ll be a better type this time around as her recent training track workouts suggests. The daughter of City Zip is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer but should be in the first flight outside and then have her chance to show what she can do.
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RACE 5: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Alvaaro; 4-All American Hero

Forecast: All American Herowas out of his element in his first outing since last June when unplaced in a tough first-level allowance grass sprint but drops for the money run and has numbers last year in Canada that chart very well against this group. The Hard Spun colt has done almost all of his racing on turf or synthetic, but this will be his first start for a tag and if he handles the dirt he’ll be a strong factor at 6-1 on the morning line. Alvaaro has been away since last October but returns in a proper spot (Nw-2, $25,000) for D. O’Neill and lands F. Prat, so we’re going to assume he’s fit and ready following a slow but steady series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. He’ll need to break well from the rail but if the lightly-raced son of Old Fashioned can negotiate a good trip he can win. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in a shaky affair that you may find the need to spread deeper.
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RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Psycho Dar; 2-Unbridled Ethos; 5-City Rage; 6-Whooping Jay

Forecast: Here’s another difficult turf sprint with several possibilities. We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Whooping Jay looked good winning his comeback last month vs. state-bred rivals while earning a sharp numbers and could be capable of scoring right back in open company. His only prior turf race was quite good (second in the Speakeasy S. as a 2-year-old) and his style suggest he can win on the lead or from a stalking position. A recent :59 4/5 workout (second fastest of 60) should have him right on edge. City Rage, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in a similar affair last month, has the makings of a useful late-running grass sprinter and such tactics surely will be employed again today. With good racing luck the son of City Zip will be heard from late. Unbridled Ethos overcame traffic to quicken late and win from Cal-bred foes under these conditions last month, and while the field itself wasn’t particularly strong the performance was quite good. This will be his second start off an 11 month layoff and with only slight improvement the J. Mullins-trained gelding, with just five career starts, may be able to move up the ladder if he can stay healthy. Psycho Dar, away since last summer but with the kind of early speed that can take a field like this gate-to-wire, goes for a barn (S. Miyadi) that is always dangerous with off-the-bench runners. You always have to hold your breath in the final 50 yards – the son of Storm Wolfe has been known to give it up under pressure – but on pure numbers he’s a fit so we’ll toss him in as well.
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RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Multiplier; 7-Ax Man

Forecast: Ax Man and Multiplier – one-three when they met two races back – square off again and both are more than capable of winning with anything close to their best race. Ax Man filled the race for McKinzie when showing speed and then fading in the Triple Bend S.-G2 (he wasn’t knocked about when tiring in the lane) and is back where he belongs today while being reunited with “win rider” M. Smith. Arguably most effective around two turns, the son of Misremembered catches a very soft pace scenario and should either be on the lead or in a comfortable pace-stalking position. The concern is that he’s 8/5 on the morning line and has been known to burn money when heavily-backed. Multiplier, beaten a neck in the Big ‘Cap in March, certainly has races that can win but is just 3-for-27 lifetime and is winless since 2018. The veteran gelding will have every chance from a second flight position under F. Prat. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and hope that at least one of them brings his “A” game.
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RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 5-Brickyard Ride

Forecast: Brickyard Road is simply too fast for these. The rapidly-developing son of Clubhouse Ride just scorched the main track when beating a starter optional claiming field by almost 10 lengths while earning a career top speed figure, one that buries this group if he can repeat it. And based on his workouts since that race, the C. Lewis-trained colt can do just that. The switch to turf doesn’t concern us at all and a low profile jockey should keep the price acceptable, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Collusion Illusion

Forecast: We’re not wild about the rail draw for Collusion Illusion but it really shouldn’t matter. The Grade-2 winning son of Twirling Candy returned at least as well as he left when in his first outing as a 3-year-old trounced a very strong second-level allowance field of older horses (runner-up Tiger Dad came back to win a state-bred stakes) with a career top speed figure. The M. Glatt-trained colt probably will have to rally from last (of five) to win, but with F. Prat staying aboard that won’t be asking too much. At 4/5 on the morning line he’s a logical, no-value, rolling exotic single in this year’s edition of the Laz Barrera S.-G3.
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RACE 10: Post 5:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Sacred Rider; 2-Margot’s Boy; 7-Indian Peak

Forecast: Sacred Rider is a hard-knocking, dependable Golden Gate shipper with the proper style for this nine furlong trip, and we’re expecting the son of Lucky Pulpit to produce the last run in a race that should have a proper amount of early speed. He’ll probably have to beat his fellow Northern California-based Indian Peak (twice a winner over Sacred Rider up north) and under M. Smith is clearly the most dangerous of the deep-closing types. Truthfully, they’re hard to separate. Devout front-runner Margot’s Boy is a perfect 3-for-3 over the local lawn but may be a tad vulnerable at nine furlongs, especially with sprinter-stretching-out Bam Bam Again in the field. He’s too good of a colt to dismiss so we’ll toss him somewhere as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 11: Post 5:32 PT. Grade: C
Single: 3-World Affairs

Forecast: This modest bottom-rung maiden claimer drew a field of seven with nothing in it to truly embrace. World Affairs, a $260,000 OBS April sale purchase, is being tossed into the scrap heap, but as a 4-year-old with just two career starts the connections clearly are ready to move on. On pure form he’s not terrible, so we’ll put him on top by default, and if it’s not him, it could be any of the other six (yes, even Fabio at 50-1 with the blinkers off angle could be used). Tread lightly, or better yet, don’t tread at all.
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RACE 12: Post 6:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Blackout; 6-Boogalute; 7-Shadow Sphinx

Forecast: The finale is a starter’s allowance turf miler loaded with question marks. The morning line favorite is Shadow Sphinx, scratched out of a short field on June 5 and un-raced since January of 2019. The R. Baltas-trained gelding actually has trained quite well for his comeback and has a prior win over the local lawn, so if he’s feeling up to it the son of Pioneer ofthe Nile, with “win rider” F. Prat aboard, certainly is good enough (and this barn is off-the-charts with come-backers). Blackout has numbers that fit, and though he’s been sprinting of late the French-bred gelding is more than capable at this trip, having finished first or second in four of seven career starts over the Santa Anita lawn. With regular pilot Prat opting for Shadow Sphinx, capable A. Cedillo takes the call and should have this gelding on or near the lead. Boogalute has races that make him dangerous but will be making his first career start on grass. He’s not really bred to improve on the lawn, but if he can handle it he can make some noise.
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Jeff Siegel's Belmont Park Wagering Strategies - 6/20/20

June 20, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 11:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Scanno; 10-Souper Energizer; 11-Turn of Events

Forecast: The opener is a maiden $75,000 claimer over a mile on turf and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Souper Energizer is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and may be as good as any. He’s a first-time gelding and relatively lightly-raced, so with some freshening since mid-March and with the switch to J. Rosario, the son of Hat Trick has a chance to build on his runner-up effort in a similar affair at Gulfstream Park when earning a career top speed figure. He’ll need another forward move to beat this field but following a recent series of solid workouts at Fair Hill he could have it in him. Scanno, in the frame in three of his last four starts, most recently when a narrow second in when facing a slightly softer field in Florida while well clear of the rest, switches to J. Castellano and should settle into a good second flight position and have his chance from there. As a nine-race maiden the son of Bernardini may be hard to trust, but he’s a fit on speed figures and shouldn’t have to improve much to win. Turn of Events shows up in a seller for the first time and has form earlier this year in Florida that puts him in the fray. We’ll toss out his poor run earlier this month over wet ground and key off his strong runner-up effort in his previous outing that produced a career top figure. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.
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RACE 2: Post 12:25 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Mischievous Alex

Forecast: The Woody Stephens S.-G1 is deep in contention but with a field of just five we have to take a stand to create a bit of value. Co-second choice at 5/2, Mischievous Alex is lightly raced, has proven to be very effective fresh, and has the perfect style for this extended sprint distance. Undefeated in two starts at this seven furlong trip and rested since winning the Gotham S.-G3 in early March, the son of Into Mischief should settle into an ideal stalking position behind the two other major contenders, No Parole and Echo Town, and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on in the final quarter mile. In a tough race to be sure, we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: X
Use: 6-Indian Pride; 7-Mrs. Danvers

Forecast: Indian Pride returns to action in her first start since weakening late to finish third at 7/5 in the Raven Run S.-G2 at Keeneland last October (a poor start cost her) and has trained like she’s fit and ready to verify the strength of her debut maiden win, an eight-length romp with a powerful speed figure at Saratoga. The daughter of Proud Citizen trained superbly in Florida before shipping to Belmont Park and should return at least as good if not better than she left in this entry-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. At even money on the morning line she’s unplayable in the win pool but she’s certainly a candidate to be no-value rolling exotic single. Those who would feel a bit more comfortable may choose to have Mrs. Danvers on a ticket as a back-up. Away since a nice maiden-breaking score at Saratoga last summer, the daughter of Tapit lands the cozy outside post and should settle early and then rally late in what probably will serve as a springboard to a stretch out in trip next time.
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RACE 4: Post 1:42 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Decorated Invader; 2-Venezuelan Hug

Forecast: The main contention in this year’s edition of the Pennine Ridge S.-G3 for 3-year-olds over a mile on turf is drawn inside. Decorated Invader, a race-shape aided winner of the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream Park in late March in his sophomore debut, most likely will have to overcome a much slower pace flow today but could be good enough anyway to score again for the powerful J. Rosario/C. Clemente jockey-trainer combo. Listed at 6/5 on the morning line, the son of Declaration of War colt likes to lag and blast home, so if he can remain in contact of the field to the head of the lane he’ll have his chance to wear down the leaders. Venezuelan Hug, claimed out of a maiden $40,000 affair in late March and two-time winner for his new connections since, gets tested for class today but this rapidly-developing son of Constitution could easily be up to the task. Much the best despite the narrow margin of victory in a recent starter optional claimer in late May, the D. Gargan-trained colt is a fit on speed figures and has improved in each of his four starts, so better is likely today. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and maybe in an exacta box as well.
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RACE 5: Post 2:19 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-O’Trouble; 5-Rare Stripe; 8-Happy Saver

Forecast: This is a stronger than par maiden special weight sprint and it will take a fairly decent colt to win it. Rare Stripe was well-meant in his debut but was pinballed and squeezed back at the start to lose valuable position and his best chance. The son of Flatter steadily moved into a mid-pack spot and then stayed on well to be a willing fourth in a race that was won by Dr Post (entered in the today’s Belmont Stakes). Now in the J. Sisterson barn, the Calumet Farm homebred has done some excellent work in the a.m. since that outing, most recently breezing a half mile in :47 1/5, the fastest of 97 for the distance at Keeneland. J. Rosario stays aboard and hopefully will get this colt to break sharply today. O’Trouble had one prior outing last summer at Saratoga and it was a very good effort, a third place finish behind Belmont Stakes-G1 major contender Tap It to Win in a fast, highly-rated affair. His recent work tab is a bit light but does include a bullet five furlong drill (1:00.4, fastest of 14) two weeks ago, so if the son of In Trouble is ready he should be a major player for a barn that is quite capable with layoff runners. Happy Saver represents stranger danger from the T. Pletcher barn. A first-timer by Super Saver out the fast sprinting mare Happy Week, he actually outworked the good older horse Fearless at Palm Beach Downs before heading north and goes for a barn that is excellent with debut runners (21%) while landing blazingly-hot rider I. Ortiz, Jr. In a race in which all three are “must uses” in rolling exotic play, we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Rare Stripe.
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RACE 6: Post 3:01 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Sweet Melania

Forecast: Sweet Melania, winner of the Jessamine S.-G2 at Keeneland last fall before finishing an excellent third to Sharing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, makes her seasonable bow in this year’s edition of the Wonder Where S.-G2 over a mile and grass and has trained like she’s ready to roll for T. Pletcher (superb 29% with layoff runners). The daughter of American Pharoah prefers to make the running, and in a race with just four other entrants, none of whom are speed types, we’re expecting the daughter of American Pharoah to be presented with the opportunity to dominate as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip, she will be hard to catch, so at 7/5 on the morning line she’s the logical top pick and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Strongerthankuknow; 8-My Sassy Sarah

Forecast: My Sassy Sarah launches a comeback in this state-bred first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares and if she returns as well as she left the daughter of Summer Front should be capable of tagging the speed from off the pace. She earned a giant 79 Beyer speed figure when breaking her maiden over this course and distance as a 2-year-old last summer when producing a powerful late kick, and nothing more will be needed to handle this assignment. That said, the work tab isn’t fancy and the barn does not have great stats with layoff runners, so for protection will have a back-up ticket or two that includes Strongerthanuknow, a local gate-to-wire maiden turf winner earlier this month with a career top figure but hooking a bit more early speed today. The daughter of Mineshaft was actually second to our top pick when ‘Sarah broke her maiden and it won’t be shocking to see a similar result today.
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RACE 8: Post 4:15 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Gamine; 4-Casual

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Acorn S.-G1 should boil down to Casual and Gamine, two fillies who are unbeaten in two career starts and both with extreme potential. Casual, a daughter of Curlin from the S. Asmussen barn, graduated at first asking with complete authority at Oaklawn Park in April and then returned the following to defeat a strong allowance field while giving every indicate that today’s one-turn mile should be perfect for her pace-stalking style. No matter what the race flow, she’ll be able to handle it. Gamine won off by herself sprinting in her debut at Santa Anita and then went to Oaklawn Park for a first-level allowance two-turn affair, a race she won extra gamely with a stakes-quality speed figure. She’s back sprinting today – we suspect she’ll enjoy the turn back in trip – and seems the likely pacesetter from her rail post position. These two probably will hook up somewhere along the way and may the best filly prevail. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Casual ever so slightly on top.
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RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Pure Sensation; 5-Stubbins

Forecast: The unusual thing about today’s Jaipur S.-G1 is that the six furlong turf sprint drew eight entrants, only one of which – the 9-year-old Pure Sensation – is a committed front-running type. A winner of 14 races during his long career that includes a victory in the 2016 edition of the Jaipur, the C. Clement-trained gelding shows a brief work tab leading up to his first start since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint November, so we can’t really be sure how cranked up he really is (the barn does have excellent stats with layoff runners, though). Given the projected pace flow, ‘Sensation is a “must use” on our ticket, but preference on top goes to the California shipper Stubbins, a much troubled fourth in the 2019 BC Sprint and then a nightmarish third (beaten a half-length) in his seasonal bow in the Daytona S.-G3 at Santa Anita last month. This six furlongs trip compliments his late-running style and with the switch to the aggressive riding L. Saez, the son of Morning Line appears capable of producing the last run. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Stubbins on top.
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RACE 10: Post 5:42 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tapit to Win; 8-Tiz the Law; 9-Dr Post; 10-Pneumatic

Forecast: While we’re going four-deep in our rolling exotics, Tiz the Law is a legitimate short price favorite and will be very difficult to beat if he shows up with his best stuff, as we suspect he will. Proven over the Belmont Park main track (his 2019 victory in the Champagne S.-G1 was superb), the son of Constitution is perfect in two starts as a 3-year-old, most recently with a dominating score in the Florida Derby-G1 in late March. Kept on edge with a series of sharp recent workouts, the B. Tagg-trained colt can be placed in a pace-stalking position or somewhere in mid-pack, depending on how regular rider M. Franco assesses the race-shape. Small ticket players needing a single certainly can assign the role to this terrific colt with complete confidence. Those looking for a price – either in the pick-3’s and pick-4’s or in the vertical exotics – have a few viable options. Tapit to the Win will be the controlling speed from the rail and will take his field as far as he can. Back in two weeks, moving up from a first-level allowance race into an American classic, facing more heat, and having to cope with an extra half-furlong, the son of Tapit will need to produce a career top effort and then some to worry Tiz the Law. However, if he can clear early and shake loose from his likely pace adversary Fore Left, the M. Casse-trained speedster may prove to be an elusive target. Dr Post won a listed stakes at Gulfstream Park in late April after overcoming a difficult trip, and his workouts since that race indicate the son of Quality Road remains on track to produce another significant forward move. He’s not the handiest of runners but over the Belmont Park main track, with its sweeping turns and long home stretch, he shouldn’t be inconvenienced in the least. Is the T. Pletcher-trained colt this good? We’ll find out. Pneumatic won the draw. He’ll leave from the highly-favorite outside post position, which will allow regular rider R. Santana, Jr. to assess the pace and find a comfortable early spot. Both of his victories at Oaklawn Park were accomplished by taking the overland route, whereas his defeat in the Matt Winn S.-G3 at Churchill Downs (when a respectable third) came when he was forced to set/press the pace inside under pressure throughout. His speed figures continue to rise and we suspect we haven’t seen anywhere close to his best just yet .
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RACE 11: Post 6:17 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Talk or Listen; 3-Largent; 9-Digital Age

Forecast: Talk or Listen, a group-stakes quality invader from France, makes his U.S. debut in a third level allowance race and has trained well enough at Fair Hill to be ready for a top effort for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. The form is good in this context, and this Irish-bred colt has run well fresh in the past. He’s also a first-time Lasix user and 10-1 on the morning line. Digital Age, away since finishing a respectable fourth in the Hollywood Derby-G1 in November, has worked well enough to expect a big run off the bench for C. Brown, whose stats with come-backers is off-the charts (29%). The negative is his record over the Belmont Park turf course – he’s been unplaced in all three starts – but considering the company he’s been keeping the son of Invincible Spirit should be a strong fit at this level. Largent has excellent tactical speed in a race that might not have much pace in it, and although the son of Into Mischief moving up a level in class he’s earned competitive speed figures for this level of competition and seems certain to have room for further improvement.
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RACE 12: Post 6:49 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Crack Shot; 4-Simply; 7-Qian B C; 8-Turbo Drive

Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for state-bred sprinting first-level allowance older horses. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. Qian B C is a prototype late-running sprinter in a race that projects to have a faster-than-par early pace, so with good racing luck the Desert Party gelding may able to produce the last run over a course he’s been known to like. Reunited with “win rider” J. Rosario, the C. Baker-trained veteran rates the edge on top at 5-1 on the morning line. Crack Shot, freshened since November, may be the most dangerous of the pace types and has won off a layoff in the past, so we’re expecting the son of Freud to return as well as he left. His numbers are faster than par for this level, so he’s a major contender on many fronts. Turbo Drive, off the track since last December and returning as a first-time gelding, goes for the M. Maker barn (powerful stats with layoffs) and sports a bullet recent five furlong drill (1:00b, fastest of 32) to have him on edge. He’ll be doing his best work from mid-pack. We’ll also toss in Simply, a debut winner at San Houston over a route-of-ground in early March. He’s a first-time gelding, has winning connections (J. Ortiz/S. Asmussen) and is another that could be heard from late if the speed types go too fast early.
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Eddie Olczyk’s Belmont Stakes Picks & Spot Plays

June 19, 2020

EDDIE OLCZYK'S BELMONT STAKES PICKS & ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS: This Belmont Stakes has pretty much everything you can throw at it – all different running styles, layoffs vs. short rest, and horses exiting races from locally at Belmont Park to the far reaches of Meydan in Dubai. Even out of the mile and one-eighth chute, it’s still the Belmont Stakes. The key, as often it is, will be the pace. When you hear NBC announcer Larry Collmus call out the six-furlong split, take notice. If it’s 1:09-and-change, that’s when I think the off-the-pace types could roll late.

MAIN CONTENDERS: TIZ THE LAW is a deserving favorite and should get a perfect trip. Look for him to be fourth or fifth early, but not far off of the pace. Trainer Barclay Tagg has slowed him down in his works recently and I really appreciate that. With FORE LEFT and MODERNIST competing for the front with rail-drawn TAPIT TO WIN, it should favor the favorite’s finishing kick. DR POST figures to be in a similar spot following TIZ THE LAW for leading local jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. SOLE VOLANTE will be coming from farther back and benefits more the faster they go early.

VALUE PLAYS: FARMINGTON ROAD has a steady running style and will be the longer price of the two Pletcher trainees. He could be as much as twice the price as DR POST and adds value to the exotics.

$100 Wagering Strategy

- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with DR POST with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD ($20)
- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD with DR POST ($20
- $10 Exacta Box: TIZ THE LAW and DR POST ($20)
- $40 Exacta: TIZ THE LAW over DR POST ($40)

Eddie’s Top 4 Picks

1. TIZ THE LAW
2. DR POST
3. SOLE VOLANTE
4. FARMINGTON ROAD


EDDIE OLCZYK’S BELMONT STAKES DAY SPOT PLAYS

Race 4 – Pennine Ridge Stakes: #7 Famished (5-1)
Despite an 0-3 record on turf, he’s run very well on the grass. Outside post positions and trips have been his kryptonite. This one-turn mile gives him a better chance to deal with the widest draw, though only 7 are entered. Manny Franco moved too soon aboard him in his last race on turf. Go off of his Palm Beach effort, and with a better trip under Irad Ortiz Jr., he has a heck of a chance. I’m hoping for 6-1 or more, but the Irad Factor almost certainly keeps him under 10-1.

Race 8 – Acorn Stakes: #5 Glass Ceiling (20-1)
Take a look at this longshot price. She was impressive in her Gulfstream Park allowance victory May 16 in which the runner-up has returned to hit the board in stakes company. Glass Ceiling is another nice claim by trainer Danny Gargan and will provide value in a race that has plenty of early pace in it. She’s tactical and won’t be on the lead, nor does she appear to need to be.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 12 hours ago #521541

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Shoplifted Intriguing price player has routed/gone two turns in six straight, so this cutback could be a bit sharp for him, but note that debut Sar win was extremely impressive, and while he meets a ton tougher here, the other four might all engage early and set him up late; upset special.
#3 Mischevious Alex Streaking runner has aired in three straight, including going a mile in a GIII last time, so he's going to have some foundation for the cutback, and if there's one of the top quartet who can settle just a bit, this one is probably him, which will help him late; would be no surprise.
#4 Echo Town ML favorite did well to draw outside the rest of the gas, and that will give Santana some options early on, but taking 9-5 on a horse making his stakes debut isn't all that appealing, especially since he's going an unknown 7Fs today, one more than ever before; making him prove it.
Race Summary You have to reach a bit to come up with the 5 but there's reason to think he can make a dent here, and the race flow could flatter him too, and it's not like the four favorites are all that imposing on figures, so give this one a look to win and place, and in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's likely to get completely ignored by the budget players, which means if he sweeps them from the back, and lot of tickets will get blown up.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Casual Undefeated filly gets the acid test after two sharp wins to start her career, but this isn't dad's GI Acorn, as the field is weak, with just one to fear down inside, who this miss has the benefit of drawing perfectly outside of; look out.
#1 Gamine Aforementioned one to fear and heavy ML favorite will get bet hard for Baffert, and she was game winning at two turns at OP, but she was also all-out, gets the worst of it as the inside speed, and will be way overbet; backwheel time.
#2 Lucrezia Tactical two-turn filly may get run off her feet a bit here on the cutback, but that's not a bad thing either, especially if the top pair hook up early and often and throw it down, since if they tire, this gal will be there; hardly impossible.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 4 but this isn't a great field and the 1 could be vulnerable too, so $8 or so isn't all that bad in a small field, and she's done nothing wrong so far, so play her aggressively to win and place, as well as in the big Pk5, middle Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since budget players could be singling the rail, even though she has an air of vulnerability to her today.

Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Texas Wedge Tactical sort actually catches a GI turf sprint field without a lot of early lick, which will give him a big edge on a lot of these, and that comeback 4th at SA last time was big, and will set him up perfectly for this; love his chances here.
#4 Pure Senstion Remarkable now 9yo won this in 2016 and was in the mix in 2017 and 2018 as well, and there's plenty of speed here if needed, but he's making his seasonal bet off a Nov. layoff, so he might need to shake some rust off; still, rock solid.
#2 Oleksandra Deep closer wins the SA GII last time in another jump or two, so today's extra half-furlong won't hurt, but her lack of early speed will, as she's going to be spotting some nice one several lengths off the far turn; comes up short.
Race Summary The price and race flow really make the 3 appealing, and he showed last time he's in top form, so play him aggressively to win and place, and especially in the big Pk5/Pk4, as well as the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he won't be favored, in what is a very evenly matched field, which means a win in the $9 range could play a bit higher in all the sequences.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 12 hours ago #521542

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 Count Alexei Ran a big one in the career debut when flashing sharp pace and only getting caught in the final jump. Thinking he's tough with anything similar today.
#2 Utalknboutpractice Botched the break before finishing with some enthusiasm behind the top choice in the debut run, and a cleaner break would make him a reasonable alternative to the chalky top choice.
#4 Caerulean Stepped back last time out, but there's some chance he can bounce back with a better effort this time around with a bit of green in his pedigree.
Race Summary Count Alexei figures tough to handle in the opener, as he doesn't meet a whole lot of other pace to deal with in the early stages and already owns the field's best race with just one start under his belt.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Bold Endeavor This guy's running lines prove that he's basically a hero or a zero. He is capable of running massive races, but he also routinely fails to show up at all. Price might be right to see if he bounces back?
#7 Ax Man Has been a handful when racing outside of major stakes company, and there are a few in here who could handle him if he doesn't bring his A-game.
#6 Multiplier Reilable type probably needs a bit more pace and a bit more ground for his very best, but he's in really good form right now and isn't entirely out of the question.
Race Summary Bold Endeavor can fire off big races every now and then, but it's never a surprise when he just packs it in and quits. The risk vs. reward on the tote board might make it worth the gamble that he's going to show up today.

Santa Anita - Race #12
Picks Notes
#1 Royal Insider Has never run all that well on the grass, but he's trying the surface today while in much better form than he was in when he last tried the footing. Worth a look.
#3 Mystery Messenger Races for a really sharp claiming outfit, and he has handled this kind of trip well enough in the past. Can't count him out.
#7 Shadow Sphinx Long layoff is a concern, but this is a softer spot than he is used to seeing, and that at least keeps him in the mix today.
Race Summary Royal Insider might just not like the turf, but his recent overall form is sharp enough to give him a chance to transfer that to the grass one more time today.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/20/20 3 weeks 12 hours ago #521543

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 GRACEFUL WINNER Bold advance, followed cover, broke stride when poised to strike.
#6 JOGGING MS LUCY Improving 3-year-old controlled soft pace to win in latest.
#3 LIGHTNING BELLE Finished second in her last two starts since return.
Race Summary Graceful Winner made a menacing move toward the 3-to-2 pace setter, tipped 3-wide with run nearing the stretch and went off stride. Let’s make her today’s Best Bet on the comeback.

Meadowlands - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 GLOBAL DOMINATION N Out-kicked late by 34-1 shot as beaten favorite from post 10.
#3 CAN’T BEACH THAT First or second in 9 of 16 as 3yo, no threat from post 10 in return.
#6 CAPTAIN GROOVY Ran lights out on lead to win in 1:49.3, can he duplicate it?
Race Summary Global Domination N saved ground in fourth, picked up cover on the final turn, then was out-kicked late by a 34-1 shot. He can move forward in his second after 4 months away, so play 4-3 and 4-6 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 JULERICA Sustained rail rally to win at notch below, value remains on class hike.
#3 REAL WILLEY Third against pace-setting fave after :54.4 back half mile.
#5 ALBERGO HANOVER Working diligently for return after 8-win, $118k season as 4yo.
Race Summary Julerica ranged up inside on the final turn, found room and got up to win in a manner that suggests he can repeat on the class hike. He draws the rail but meets a solid field, so play a 1-3-5 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #2
Picks Notes
#7 Simply Breathless Is on a quick run-back after finishing 7th in last Sunday's G3 San Francisco at Golden Gate. She tired vs. male rivals and returns to her home base. Won this race last year with a strong late move. Stablemate of probable favorite Toinette.
#6 Toinette Makes her 1st since December and comes off a season in which she was 3 of 5 after going 4 of 5 in 2018; always worthy of strong support.
#5 Keeper Onthe Stars Won the G1 Gamely last out and the G2 Buena Vista the race before that; is at the top of her game and will be close throughout this one.
Race Summary Simply Breathless is going on an interesting run here, having lost at Golden Gate last weekend; she is back to the distaff set and likely will be a much better pace to chase this time around.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Ragtime Blues Lost his only start as a 2-year-old but has come back with two outstanding starts; he has the most speed and can take them the distance.
#1 Collusion Illusion Hard to knock him, expect for the one loss in his 3 of 4 record, but that's nitpicking; he clearly has a ton of talent, won the G2 Best Pal and pulled up in the G1 American Pharoah.
#4 Alcools Crushed optional claiming in his last start of 2019 and has had a steady work pattern for his return.
Race Summary Ragtime Blues is ultra rapid and has developed well as a 3-year-old; Baffert charge the one to catch.

Santa Anita - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Canyon Crest Deep closer will get a favorable pace scenario as there is plenty of speed in which to set up his late run; won two straight and then didn't fire on the dirt last time. Has the turn of foot to score the upset.
#2 Margot's Boy Lost his debut but won the three races since; loves it on the front end and can hang on for a major piece of it.
#7 Indian Peak Held on for 2nd last time out and has been decent on turf, with a win and two seconds in three grass starts.
Race Summary Canyon Crest has the best closing move and should appreciate the nine furlongs; one to hold off.
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