Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 6/14/20
Handicapping NASCAR at Homestead
NASCAR has a nice new wrinkle added to Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one that hasn’t been seen at a race since March 8 at Phoenix Raceway. Fans will be in the stands. There will only be 1,000 of them, but at least its a start.
“I always thought I appreciated the fans and the atmosphere you feel when you walk around the track but, once you live not having any of that, you realize how much you miss everyone,” said Clint Bowyer, who is listed by the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook at 50-to-1 odds to win Sunday.
“This weekend will be nice to have some folks back in the stands. I’m not going to be happy until everyone is back and healthy at the track. Who knows when that will be, but it will be good to see folks in the stands on Sunday. I hope we can give them a heck of a race.”
The fans will be comprised of military personnel, first responders, and their immediate family members. They won’t be allowed on the infield and they have to take a series of precautionary measures before entering the stands such as taking a health screening, wearing a mask, and social distancing while in the stands. Still, it’s better than nothing and looks like we’re getting closer to what we used to know as normalcy.
Next week at Talladega Superspeedway, the same procedures will apply as 5,000 guests will be admitted as well as a limited space outside the track for motorhomes above the superstretch.
Fans or no fans, all I want this week is to have a bet on the winner and I think I have him.
First, let’s get some background on the track and race package being used in what will be the 12th race of the season following Wednesday night’s race at Martinsville.
Homestead-Miami Speedway has had 21 Cup Series dates, all in November, and when they changed the track from a flat 1.5-mile layout to a high-banked 1.5-mile layout, it became the last race of the season in a trade of dates with duped Atlanta Motor Speedway because it always seemed to rain at Atlanta in the last race. NASCAR, who owns Homestead-Miami Speedway through its subsidiary International Speedway Corporation (ISC), immediately changed the points system and started The Chase to the Championship format in 2004 with the season finale Championship Race being at Homestead. Atlanta, a Speedway Motorsports Incorporated (SMI) track, got the shaft.
It’s somewhat important to know that no one has raced at Homestead in the day time throughout a hot and humid June afternoon. It’s also very important to know that only elite drivers win at Homestead. The last six winners all won season championships in the new playoff format. Nine of the last 10 winners have all been different drivers.
Sunday’s race will be the fifth race of 2020 on a 1.5-mile track, but its paperclip shape is much different from the traditional D-shaped or quad-ovals raced on everywhere else. This will also be the eighth race of the season using the race package with engines producing 550 horsepower. On Wednesday at Martinsville, they used the 750 horsepower package for the third time.
NASCAR Cup Odds - Homestead
Kevin Harvick +400
Martin Truex Jr. +500
Kyle Busch +550
Chase Elliott +700
Joey Logano +750
Brad Keselowski +1000
Denny Hamlin +1000
Ryan Blaney +1200
Alex Bowman +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2000
Kurt Busch +2500
NASCAR Trends
Another New Winner?
Martin Truex Jr. became the seventh different driver to win a race in 2020 with another Martinsville win. Four of those drivers have two wins apiece. While there’s an appearance of more parity this season with some solid finishes from teams we don’t consider upper-tiered, the seven winners so far are elites. But perhaps the most elite of the drivers, defending Cup Champion Kyle Busch, is still winless. This looks like the perfect spot for him to win.
Homestead - Drivers to Watch
Here’s a look at my top NASCAR drivers to watch along with fair odds, picks and predictions.
Kyle Busch (11/2)
It’s time for Busch to get his first win, although he’s had a series-leading six top-fives (tied with Harvick). He’s been runner-up at Atlanta, Darlington, and Fontana. He’s the active leader at Homestead with 463 laps led while also winning two races, both to win Cup Championships (2015, 2019). He’s finished no worse than sixth in his last five starts there while also leading a lap in each. He’s fuming that’s he’s winless after 11 races.
Martin Truex, Jr. (5/1)
In 15 Cup starts at Homestead he’s averaged a 10th-place finish, but his last three starts have been his absolute best: runner-up the past two seasons and a win in 2017 to capture his only Cup Championship. He’s fresh off his first win of the season and grabbed his only top-fives of the season the last two races.
Kevin Harvick (4/1)
He started in 19 of the 21 Cup races at Homestead and compiled a track record 11 top-fives and a 6.4 average finish. His lone win came in 2014 to win the Cup Championship. He’s been the most consistent this season with nine top-10s and six top-fives and both of his wins came using the 550 HP package.
Chase Elliott (7/1)
In 11 races this season he’s been in contention late to win eight of them. He has seven top-10s and five top-fives with a win at Charlotte. This race package has been solid for him again, In his four Cup starts at Homestead he has a 9.5 average finish.
Ryan Blaney (14/1)
He’s looking for his first top-10 finish at Homestead and should get it based on his last three starts using this week’s race package: fourth at Atlanta, and third in both Charlotte races.
Denny Hamlin (10/1)
Someone within the no. 11 team shop is going to get chewed out for the junk they sent on the hauler to Martinsville. No practice or qualifying definitely hurt. That’s three awful outings in three starts with the 750 HP package. With the 550 HP package, he’s got four top-fives and a Darlington win. He’s one of two active drivers with two Homestead wins.
Brad Keselowski (10/1)
He doesn’t have a Homestead win in 12 Cup starts but has been seventh or better in five of them. He hasn’t been the best with this race package, but he certainly seems to be close near the end of races waiting for someone to make a mistake.
Alex Bowman (20/1)
After watching the first three races using this week’s race package I thought Bowman was way ahead of the game with a win at Fontana and runner-up at Darlington, but he’s been unable to match it in the last four with it -- not one top-10. Have others caught up or did his team just lose the set-up edge? He was ninth last season at Homestead.
The last race using this week’s race package was at Atlanta and it was apparent for most of the race that Joe Gibbs Racing had all four of their cars set perfectly with three of them getting tip-five finishes. That progression should continue here making Hamlin and Erik Jones (30/1) almost as live as Busch and Truex.
Dixie Vodka 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #18 Kyle Busch (11/2)
2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #9 Chase Elliott (8/1)
5) #12 Ryan Blaney (14/1)