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PGA Golf Charles Schwab Challenge Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 6/10/20

 
Posted : June 10, 2020 10:11 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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PGA Tour Betting Resources
2020 Betting Resources

Tour: PGA
Date: Thursday, June 11, 2020 to Sunday, June 14, 2020
Venue: Colonial Country Club
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Par-Yardage: 70; 7,209 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS

PGA Tour Colonial Country Club

Handicapping Colonial
Will Rust Play a Factor?

Golf fans may not be able to physically attend the event, but the excitement is palpable for PGA Tour players to return to action next week at the Colonial Country Club. And oddly enough, this long time away from competition can actually be viewed as a positive for the tournament organizers of the Charles Schwab Challenge, as the projected field for this tournament is by far the strongest this event has had in years. It's just too bad for their sake that they won't be able to collect on ticket fees because of it.

Often plagued by a poor spot on the PGA Tour calendar, the Charles Schwab Challenge is generally an event the bigger names in golf choose to pass on in recent years, but that's clearly not the case this season. Plenty of the game's biggest names litter the field for this event, and while bettors should still wait a day or two to confirm these guys are going to enter, even with a few of them backing out, it should still be a star-studded field.

In terms of what the course offers, getting used to the venue being a lot less crowded then normal PGA events might be a minor early adjustment many guys make. Other then that though, the challenges that usually come at the Colonial Country Club remain the same, and the #1 goal there is for guys to have their approach game dialed in.

A course that's just 7,200 yards is considered rather “short” for the pros today, and with just two Par 5's and the majority of the Par 4's being between 400 and 450 yards, there is little advantage to those who come here with the usual advantage of length. Accuracy is the premium skill set to have at Colonial, from avoiding the thick rough on tee shots, to hitting these smaller then average greens, the guys who separate themselves from the majority of the field will be hitting on all cylinders in that regard.

The problem with that lies in the fact that nobody really knows how active most of these guys have been during the break, and how “sharp” some guy's games are can be left up in the air. Recent form is virtually all but non-existent, so the typical work is tougher this week – and will be for the next few weeks – for a golf handicapper.

That being said, we still won't shy away from making the best educated selections we can, making sure to confirm these guys will be there, considering some may have potential travel issues to deal with.
PGA Tour Odds to Win
Charles Schwab Challenge

Rory McIlroy: +700
Jon Rahm: +900
Justin Thomas: +1600
Webb Simpson: +2200
Bryson DeChambeau: +2200
Dustin Johnson: +2500
Brooks Koepka: +2900
Patrick Reed: +2900
Rickie Fowler: +2900
Sungjae Im: +2900
More Golfers
(Odds Subject to Change)

Oddsmakers respecting Internationals

A much deeper field then usual for this event does bring out some variety at the top of the betting board. Somebody with at least some public recent form in Rory McIlroy (+700) is the overall favorite, but just behind the world #1, you've got world #2 Jon Rahm (+900) as the only other golfer priced below the +1000 marker.

After that, names like Justin Thomas (+1600), Webb Simpson (+2200), Bryson Dechambeau (+2200), Dustin Johnson (+2500), Brooks Koepka (+2900), Patrick Reed (+2900), Rickie Fowler (+2900) and Sungjae Im (+2900) appear.

In the past it was rare to see any more then three of those types of names in this field, and in an event with a few more unknowns in general, it is nice to have some level of choice at the top if bettors chose to venture into this range.

However, it's a golfer who is priced just outside that range that gets the nod as the favorite to go with here, as he has some public recent form that has to be viewed as a positive.
Golfers to Watch - Colonial
Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
Charles Schwab Challenge
Rickie Fowler +2900

Fowler and fellow Oklahoma State alum Matthew Wolff fell in a wedge-off in their charity match with Rory and DJ, but Fowler and Wolff were by far the more consistent team overall and a lot of that had to do with the play of Fowler. He had no problem putting the young Wolff on his back and carrying him for the bulk of that competition.

Fowler did so with his iron play, as his approach game has long been one of his strength's on Tour. Past scheduling issues had Fowler passing on this event most times in the past, but he did tee it up here a year ago. Those results were not pleasant as a first round 74 put a damper on the week and he was unable to recover enough to make the cut, missing it by a single stroke.

But this really is a course that suits Fowler's game from top to bottom, and I'm banking on his results at this venue making a significant leap forward this year. Also, it can't be worth much, but Fowler is one of those few names in this field that does have experience of what the course will feel like with a skeleton camera crew and no fans after that charity match, and to me, that's what puts this number of +2900 a little out of whack and one to take a piece of.
Mid-Range Value
Charles Schwab Challenge
Daniel Berger +6600

Berger is always a name to at least consider on the courses that do play on the shorter end of things, as he's a guy that excels at accuracy based events like this one.

Berger isn't exactly one of the shorter guys on Tour, but when he needs length he has tendency to force things and that's where the wayward shots come into play. Give him the opportunity to make his club selection with a stock swing in mind, and fairways and greens can be the name of the game for Berger if he's on. Considering he ranks 14th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total through the abbreviated 2019-20 season, Berger tends to hold his own against any caliber of field.

As long as Berger remains accurate – primary off the tee, he's a name that's long overdue to break through and win one of the bigger events on Tour, and while the Charles Schwab may not technically be one, the first event back after months away from the game is one that still will be remembered for awhile. Berger would love to make sure his name is a part of that memory.
Long Shot Pick
Charles Schwab Challenge
Branden Grace +10000

Grace is an international name you may want to confirm is going to show up for the event given his potential travel issues from wherever he may be. But he's another guy that's similar to Berger in that accuracy is generally the strong point of his game when he's on and playing well. What may be even more important regarding Grace though, is his ability to play in windy conditions, should one of those strong Texas winds pop up and create issues for the players.

Accuracy off the tee and putting have been the biggest drawbacks for Grace this year, and if they become an issue from the outset at this event, then this play will likely have no chance. That's something you can generally say with any 100/1 shot every week in large part though.

He's a guy that's got good enough game to compete with anyone in the world at this venue if he's playing well, and that little extra edge he has over most in windy play has him undervalued enough in my mind to take a piece.
Charles Schwab Challenge
Recent Winners (Odds to Win)
2019 - Kevin Na (50/1)
2018 - Justin Rose (18/1)
2017 - Kevin Kisner (30/1)
2016 - Jordan Spieth (6/1)
2015 - Chris Kirk (30/1)
How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2020 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

 
Posted : June 10, 2020 10:14 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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By Matt Blunt

Golf is back this week with the Charles Schwab Challenge, and while the tournament will have a much different feel to it with all the changes it will have, the goal remains the same for all the golfers in the field; shoot the best four rounds of golf of anyone there.
Charles Schwab Challenge
Betting Resources

Picks and Predictions
Betting Odds
Date: June 11-14
Venue: Colonial Country Club
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Par-Yardage: 70; 7,209 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS

But while addressing the futures market is a great place to start your golf handicapping each week, isolating a select few and even making outright plays on them, the bread and butter to growing a bankroll with golf wagering is in the props and the matchups.

So, while hitting outright futures is always nice, it's backing a couple of those guys individually where this week's prop and matchup plays start. However, with how different this tournament will look, feel, and probably play out, relative to what we remember from the PGA Tour, easing back into these plays may be the best approach.
Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only
Best Finishing Position

Dustin Johnson (+110) over Brooks Koepka
Rickie Fowler (+105) over Patrick Reed
Branden Grace (+110) over Ian Poulter (Bet Now at DraftKings)

Ties are considered losses

Fowler and Grace were two of the three names I put out there in the weekly piece in relation to outright prices, so getting both of them at plus money over their respective opponents was a relatively no-brainer. Poulter had a hell of a time here last year in finishing T70 with a +9 score – three of four rounds at Even or worse, and this time off likely hurt Reed more then helped him as he was actually playing some pretty good golf prior to the break. I've at least seen Rickie out there in his match play challenge, and if I'm getting plus money there it's hard to turn down.

Similar perspective with backing DJ over Koepka, especially when Koepka's still in recovery mode from his injuries/surgeries. No doubt all this time off has helped Brooks physically, but how sharp his game is remains a whole other question to the table. At that price it's easy to land on the idea that Koepka's golf game probably has a few kinks in it, and back a guy who's still one of the best in the world, and does have a competitive round under his belt in this post-virus, no gallery world.
Nationality Prop
Top English Player
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+225) over Justin Rose (+200), Ian Poulter (+550), Tom Lewis (+750), Matt Wallace (+750) and Danny Willett (+750)

Fitzpatrick didn't really have the best time at Colonial in 2019 either with a +6 final score that was good enough for T64. But the thoughts on Poulter have already been laid out, and outside of maybe Matt Wallace getting hot for the first couple of days, the other three names behind Poulter in the odds are barely worth a second look.

Which leaves a sort of head-to-head matchup between Fitzpatrick and Rose in that perspective, with the younger Englishman the slight dog. Rose was only one shot better then Fitzpatrick at this venue a season ago, and in a fresh start like this for everyone, it may be the younger guys who are able to heat up their games more quickly in the coming weeks. In that group of players, Fitzpatrick has the game to outlast them all if he's in sharp form.
To Make/Miss the Cut Prop
Ian Poulter to Miss Cut (+105)
Bet Now at DraftKings

Sometimes when you search through the entire betting board in sports like this you can find a few oddities that can act like a bigger picture coming into focus. I don't mean to be picking on Poulter as much as I seemingly am in this piece, but when he's favored over Grace in the head-to-head matchup, and actually trailing Grace in the Make/Miss Cut odds – Grace is -150 on the Yes, while Poulter is -137 on the Yes – it's a number that tends to stick out when you've already formed a wagering style for one guy, and against the other in other bets offered for the Charles Schwab.

Poulter's just not a guy that I expect to be anywhere near his best out of the gate, as he's part of that older mid-40's group of players that may be good fades out of the gate based on name recognition alone. Justin Rose was discussed in that light earlier as he turns 40 next month, and Poulter's already five years beyond that. Rose is also a former winner here, whereas Poulter's a guy that wasn't too fond of his first trip here in a while a season ago.

Three of his four rounds were par or worse in this event last year, and if he duplicates those kind of numbers over the first 36 holes this week, this plus money wager should get us to the window.

 
Posted : June 10, 2020 10:19 am
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