Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/30/20
UFC on ESPN+: Woodley vs. Burns Main Card
Welterweight Bout
Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
Tyron Woodley (38-years-old)
UFC Record (9-3-1)
Last Fight - Unanimous decision loss vs. Kamaru Usman at UFC 235 for the welterweight strap on March 2, 2020
Four of his past five bouts have ended up going the distance (3-1-1)
Has never been submitted in 13 bouts at the UFC level, or in 24 total professional fights
Owns five KO/TKO victories in 13 UFC fights, including four finished in Round 1
Has posted a 49.54 significant strike accuracy percentage and 2.50 significant strikes landed per minute
Gilbert Burns (33-years-old)
UFC Record (11-3)
Last Fight - KO/TKO win (Round 1, 2:34) vs. Demain Maia at UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira on March 14, 2020
5-0 across his past five fights, including a KO/TKO win, three unanimous decisions wins and a submission victory
Five of his past eight bouts have finished inside the distance
Has never been submitted in 14 fights at the UFC level, or in 21 total professional bouts
Last loss came July 7, 2018 in a KO/TKO loss against Dan Hooker at UFC 226
Heavyweight Bout
Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai
Blagoy Ivanov (33-years-old)
UFC Record (2-2)
Last Fight - Nov. 2, 2019, a split-decision loss to Derrick Lewis at UFC 244
All four of his fights at the UFC level have gone the distance, including three unanimous decisions (2-1)
Has not been submitted in nine total professional fights since a rear-naked choke loss to Alexander Volkov at Bellator 120 on May 17, 2014
Has never been knocked out in 21 total professional fights, winning six times by KO/TKO
Augusto Sakai (29-years-old)
UFC Record (3-0)
Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019, a KO/TKO (Round 1, 0:59) vs. Marcin Tybura at UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Four of his past five professional bouts (4-1) have finished inside the distance
3-0 in his three fights at the UFC level, winning two by KO/TKO
Has never won or lost by submission in 16 career professional fights
Catchweight Bout
Billy Quarantillo vs. Spike Carlyle
Billy Quarantillo (31-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019, a submission win (Round 2, 3:18) vs. Jacob Kilburn in his UFC debut
Each of his past five professional bouts have ended inside the distance, including four wins via KO/TKO
Has never lost via submission in 15 career professional fights (5-0)
Spike Carlyle (27-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Feb. 29, 2020, a KO/TKO win (Round 1, 1:25) vs. Aalon Cruz at UFC Fight Night: Benevidez vs. Figueiredo
Each of his past three professional fights have ended via KO/TKO victories
Has never lost via submission in 10 career professional fights (3-0)
Has never been kncoked out in 10 career pro bouts, going 5-0
Lightweight Bout
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver
Roosevelt Roberts (26-years-old)
UFC Record (2-1)
Last Fight - Nov. 19, 2019, a unanimous decision win vs. Alexander Yakovlev
All three of his fights at the UFC level have gone the distance after his first seven pro bouts finished inside the distance
Has never been submitted in 10 career professional fights, winning four via submission
Roberts has won three professional bouts by KO/TKO (3-0), but none at the UFC level
Brok Weaver (28-years-old)
UFC Record (14-8)
Last Fight - Feb. 15, 2020, a win by disqualification (Round 1, 4:02) vs. Kazula Vargas in Rio Rancho, N.M. in his UFC debut
Three of his past four professional fights have finished inside the distance, although five of his past eight pro bouts have been decided by the judges
Hasn't been knocked out in eight professional fights dating back to Titan FC 41, a Round 2 loss to Martin Brown on Sept. 9, 2016
Women's Strawweight Bout
Mackenzie Dern vs. Hannah Cifers
Mackenzie Dern (27-years-old)
UFC Record (2-1)
Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019, a unanimous-decision loss to Amanda Ribas at UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Four of her eight professional bouts have finished inside the distance, including one of three at the UFC level
In eight career professional bouts, four have ended with submission victories (4-0)
None of here eight career fights have ended via KO/TKO
Hannah Cifers (27-years-old)
UFC Record (2-2)
Last Fight - Jan. 25, 2020, a KO/TKO loss (Round 2, 4:26) vs. Angela Hill at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Two of her four fights at the UFC level have finished inside the distance, both KO/TKO losses
No submission victories in 14 career professional fights, losing once via rear-naked choke
UFC on ESPN+: Woodley Burns Prelims
Women's Flyweight Bout
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Katlyn Chookagian (31-years-old)
UFC Record (6-3)
Last Fight - Feb. 8, 2020, a KO/TKO title fight loss (Round 3, 1:03) at UFC 247 vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Eight of her nine fights at the UFC level have gone the distance, including three split decisions (2-1), and five unanimous decisions (5-0)
Only one of her 16 career professional fights have ended via submission (1-0)
All nine of her fights at the UFC level have made it into the third round
Antonina Shevchenko (35-years-old)
UFC Record (1-1)
Last Fight - Aug. 3, 2019, a submission win (Round 2, 1:20) vs. Lucie Pudilova at UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Six of her nine professional fights have ended up going the distance (5-1)
Has never been submitted or knocked out in nine career bouts
Welterweight Bout
Gabriel Green vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Gabriel Green (27-years-old)
UFC Record (0-0)
Last fight - Jan. 20, 2018, a Round 1 submission win over Chris Padilla at Bellator 192
Will be making his UFC debut, taking fight on short notice for the injured Kevin Holland (shoulder)
All three of Green's professional fights have finished inside the distance
Two of his pro bouts have ended via KO/TKO (1-1), with one submission victory
Daniel Rodriguez (33-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Feb. 15, 2020, a submission win (Round 2, 3:37) vs. Tim Means in his UFC debut in Rio Rancho, N.M.
Has never been knocked out in 12 career professional bouts, winning six by KO/TKO
Only two of his 12 career pro fights have ended up going the distance (1-1)
Light Heavyweight Bout
Jamahal Hill vs. Klidson Abreu
Jamahal Hill (29-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Jan. 25, 2020, a unanimous decision win vs. Darko Stosic in his UFC debut
Four of his seven career professional fights have gone the distance, all unanimous decisions victories
Has won three career pro fights via KO/TKO
None of his seven pro fights have ended via submission
Owns a five-inch reach advantage over Abreu
Klidson Abreu (27-years-old)
UFC Record (1-2)
Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019, a split-decision loss vs. Shamil Gamzatov at UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar
Each of his three fights at the UFC level have gone the distance
Has never lost via submission in 19 career professional fights (10-0)
Last fight for Abreu ending in KO/TKO was a win by doctor stoppage Sept. 3, 2016 vs. Leonard Silva De Oliveira at JF: Jungle Fight 90
Flyweight Bout
Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval
Tim Elliott (33-years-old)
UFC Record (2-3)
Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020, a unanimous-decision loss vs. Askar Askarov at UFC 246
Three of his five fights at the UFC level have finished inside the distance (1-2)
None of his past 17 professional bouts have ended via KO/TKO
His last win via KO/TKO came Dec. 16, 2011 at RFA 1: Resurrection Fighting Alliance vs. Jens Pulver
Brandon Royval (27-years-old)
UFC Record (0-0)
Last Fight - Nov. 22, 2019, a submission victory (Round 1, 0:23) for the title at LFA 79: Royval vs. Williams
Making his UFC level debut vs. Elliott
Three of his past five professional bouts have finished inside the division
In 14 career pro fights he has never lost via submission (6-0)
Has never lost by KO/TKO in his 14 career bouts, going 3-0
Bantamweight Bout
Louis Smolka vs. Casey Kenney
Louis Smolka (28-years-old)
UFC Record (7-6)
Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019, a KO/TKO win (Round 1, 4:43) vs. Ryan MacDonald at UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Each of his past three UFC fights have finished inside the distance
Hasn't won via decision at the UFC level since July 11, 2015, a span of 12 total fights (all competitions)
Has never been knocked out in 22 career professional fights (7-0), including 3-0 at UFC level
Casey Kenney (29-years-old)
UFC Record (2-1)
Last Fight - Feb. 15, 2020, a unanimous decision loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili at UFC Fight Night, Rio Rancho, N.M.
Each of his three fights at the UFC level have gone the distance
In 16 career professional bouts he has never lost via submission (4-0)
Kenney has never been knocked out in 16 career fights, winning twice via KO/TKO
Featherweight Bout
Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales
Chris Gutierrez (29-years-old)
UFC Record (2-0)
Last Fight - Aug. 10, 2019, a split-decision win vs. Geraldo de Freitas at UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Each of his fights at the UFC level have gone the distance
Has never been knocked out in 18 career professional fights, going 6-0 via KO/TKO
In 18 career fights he has just one victory (1-1), a rear-naked choke of Ray Rodriguez at LFA 52
Vince Morales (29-years-old)
UFC Record (1-2)
Last Fight - July 13, 2019, a unanimous-decision loss vs. Benito Lopez at UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
Each of his three fights at the UFC level have gone the distance, all unanimous decisions (1-2)
Nine of his 13 career professional fights have finished inside the distance
Has never been knocked out in 13 career bouts, winning five via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns Betting Odds, Analysis & Predictions
May 29, 2020
By Brian Edwards
Betting Odds & Best Bets
Date: Saturday, May 30, 2020
Venue: UFC APEX
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 6:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night Trends | UFC Expert Picks
UFC Fight Night Betting Odds
Tyron Woodley -189 Gilbert Burns +150
Blagoy Ivanov -110 Augusto Sakai -110
Daniel Rodriguez -290 Gabriel Green +230
Spike Carlyle +110 Billy Quarantillo -137
Roosevelt Roberts -333 Brok Weaver +250
Mackenzie Dern -455 Hannah Cifers +320
Kaitlyn Chookagian +110 Antonina Shevchenko -137
Jamahal Hill -125 Klidson Abreu +100
Brandon Royval +150 Tim Elliott -189
Louis Smolka +210 Casey Kenney -278
Vince Morales -110 Chris Gutierrez -110
UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns Main Card
Welterweight Bout
Tyronn Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas on Saturday for UFC on ESPN 9, an 11-fight card that’ll be held on the UFC’s campus at the Apex Facility, the same venue the promotion uses for The Ultimate Fighter and Dana White’s Tuesday’s Night Contender Series.
ESPN will have full coverage of the show starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
In the main event, former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley (19-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) will return to the Octagon for the first time since he lost his belt by blowout unanimous decision to Kamaru Usman. Woodley has been off for nearly 15 months since getting dominated by Usman at UFC 235 on March 2 of 2019.
The 38-year-old Woodley will take on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Gilbert Burns. As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Woodley installed as a -184 favorite, with Burns as a +156 underdog. The total was 4.5 rounds (‘under’ -170, ‘over’ +138).
For bettors who are bullish on Woodley, they can avoid the expensive straight price and back him to win by KO/TKO for a +195 return. Woodley can also be had to win by submission (15/1 or +1500) or decision (+220).
Woodley has fought only twice since July 29 of 2017. He won the 170-pound strap by knocking at Robbie Lawler in only 132 seconds in the UFC 201 headliner at Philips Arena in Atlanta. ‘The Chosen One’ retained his belt in a majority draw vs. Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson at UFC 205.
The rematch was a majority-decision win for Woodley at UFC 209. He defended his belt again with a UD victory over Demian Maia in one of the most boring title fights in the promotion’s history. Woodley then missed more than 13 months before submitting Darren Till with a D’Arce choke at UFC 228.
The 33-year-old Burns (18-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC) is on a five-fight winning streak after scoring a first-round knockout win over Maia at UFC Brasilia on March 14. Burns has gone 3-0 since returning to welterweight after a 10-fight stretch in the 155-pound loop.
The Brazilian is 11-0 in his career in welterweight fights and 4-0 in fights at 170 pounds in the UFC. Regardless of the weight class, Burns is 7-1 in last eight Octagon appearances since Sept. 16 of 2017. The only loss in that stretch came to fifth-ranked lightweight Dan Hooker.
Woodley will own a three-inch reach advantage, but Burns has a one-inch edge in height. Woodley owns seven wins by KO, seven by decision and five by submission. He’s only been finished once by Nate Marquardt via KO nearly eight years ago.
Burns has eight wins by submission, six by KO and four via decision. He’s only been finished once in a KO loss to Hooker. This is the first time Burns has been scheduled for a five-round bout.
Both fighters made weight Friday morning by tipping the scales at 170.5 pounds.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
Woodley’s age and lack of activity must concern his backers. On the flip side, this is a big step up in class for Burns, who hasn’t faced the top-tier welterweights that Woodley has been going up against for the last decade. Woodley has said all the right things and appears to be more focused than he was going into his bout with Usman. At that time, Woodley was making rap videos, participating in movies and wasn’t focused on MMA the way he needed to be to stay at the top. All the momentum is with Burns, who I like for two units as a +156 underdog.
Men's Heavyweight Bout
Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai
In the co-main event, 12th-ranked Blagoy Ivanov and 13th-ranked Augusto Sakai will throw down in a heavyweight contest. As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Sakai listed as a -112 favorite vs. Ivanov (-104). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -182, ‘under’ +148).
The 33-year-old Ivanov (18-3-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is the former World Series of Fight heavyweight champ who successfully defended that strap four times before signing with the UFC. He has demonstrated an outstanding chin in his four-fight UFC run, with all four of those scraps going the distance.
In his promotional debut, Ivanov went the five-round distance in a UD loss to former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in the UFC Boise headliner. He responded with back-to-back decision wins over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa, although VegasInsider had his second UFC appearance scored in favor of Rothwell.
Ivanov is off a split-decision loss to Derrick ‘The Black Beast’ Lewis at UFC 244 this past November. He owns other notable scalps over former UFC veterans Shawn Jordan and Lavar Johnson.
Sakai (14-1-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC) took his only career loss in Bellator against former UFC veteran Cheick Kongo via split decision in 2017. He owns 11 of his 14 career wins by KO, including three of those in his four-fight UFC run.
Sakai is off a 59-second KO win over Marcin Tybura. He beat Andrei Arlovski by split decision in a controversial judging decision in April of 2019. Sakai also has a third-round KO win over Chase Sherman to his credit.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
Although all four of Ivanov’s UFC fights have gone the distance, I can’t turn down plus money in a heavyweight scrap that has a total of 2.5 rounds. Let’s go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 for the +148 payout.
UFC Fight Night Bonus Predictions
-- Let’s go with one unit on Spike Carlyle as a +118 underdog (FanDuel) in a 150.5-pound catchweight contest vs. Billy Quarantillo.
-- Look for additional picks in Brian’s UFC on ESPN 9 pick pack.
B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets
-- Dana White shot down speculation that Conor McGregor might fight Usman next for the welterweight belt. White says Usman’s second title defense will be against Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal or Leon Edwards.
-- Speaking of Covington, he’s no longer with American Top Team in South Florida. He told multiple media members this week that he’s still on good terms with ATT co-owner Dan Lambert. Covington pointed blame at Masvidal and Dustin Poirier for his “mutual exit” from ATT.
-- Petr Yan and Jose Aldo will fight for the vacated bantamweight title at a to-be-determined date and venue. FanDuel has Yan installed as a -260 ‘chalk’ vs. Aldo (+210).
-- Robert Whittaker and Darren Till will fight in the main event of the July 25 show on Fight Island. FanDuel has Whittaker listed as a -120 favorite vs. Till (+102).