Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/30/20
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Horse Races Today: Saturday's Churchill Downs and Santa Anita Analysis & Odds
May 29, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
It happened sooner than I thought, as Belmont Park drew the fields for the opening day card which is next Wednesday. There is a 10-race card with plenty of full fields as racing returns to the Big Apple.
Amazingly the Belmont Stakes (G1) is now just three weeks away on June 20. There is no telling when spectators will be allowed to return, and all eyes will be on Saratoga, which opens in July but of now will race without fans, which will be a major hit to the racetrack and local economy.
We have a solid 11-race card on tap at Churchill Downs this afternoon with a couple of stakes on the menu and the feature at Santa Anita this afternoon is the $100,000 Honeymoon (G3) for three-year-old fillies.
The stakes action starts at Churchill Downs with the $100,000 Winning Colors (G3) for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track.
It is tough to separate Mia Mischief and Break Even, the two short priced favorites, but I went with the latter and hoping that longshot Bell’s the One might be able to split up a chalky exacta.
The nightcap is the $100,000 Mint Julep which drew a competitive field of 14 fillies and mares that will go 1 1/16 miles on turf. Juliet Foxtrot is the 5-2 morning line favorite but without a race since December may be worth taking a stab against.
Secret Message is also coming back off the bench but is going to be a more generous price and Beau Recall is coming back off a break and kept good company last year in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races.
You can catch the action from Churchill Downs from 1:00 to 2:30 ET on FS2 and then from 2:30 to 6:30 ET on FS1.
In addition, the NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 8:00 ET. Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Santa Anita.
Here is the opening race from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:
Churchill Downs Race 1 Analysis - 5/30 (1:00 ET)
#5 Brittle and Yoo 5-2
#7 Our Secret Agent 2-1
#3 Trapped N My Mind 7-2
#1 Extra Effort 7-2
Analysis: Brittle and Yoo drops in for a tag for her second career start here for the Cox barn. Shew was sent off at 7-1 in her debut. She raced near the back of the pack early, came with a four wide bid and caught in some traffic and finished up with some interest for third. Cox is 25% winners with second out maidens. She is out of a stakes placed Tale of the Cat mare that has dropped one winner. Castellano picks up the calla and she figures to move forward with a race under her belt.
Our Secret Agent was third in her debut here last June and was a good second last out at Aqueduct off the bench. She returns here off nearly a three month break for the Casse barn. She does not need to move forward much off her last effort to beat this group. She is out of a stakes placed Holy Bull mare that has dropped seven winners including stakes winner Hotshot Anna ($975,010).
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 7 Analysis - 5/30 (4:08 ET)
#2 Break Even 9-5
#4 Bell's the One 15-1
#8 Mia Mischief 8-5
#7 Spiced Perfection 7-2
Analysis: Break Even makes her third start off the bench her and is coming off a sharp gate to wire score against allowance optional claimers last out at Oaklawn Park. It was her seventh win in nine career starts. She won six of seven last year including the Eight Belles (G2) over a sloppy track here on Oaks Day. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and looks quick enough to get clear early. The surface at this distance so far at the meet fits her running style and she looks capable of moving forward off her last outing.
Bell’s the One returns off a three month break here and returns to the main track after a seventh on turf in the Mardi Gras at Fair Grounds. Last fall she put in her two best career efforts, a runner up finish here in the Dogwood and then winning the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland in an upset at 13-1. She then was fifth in the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita where he faced a really tough group which included Hard Not to Like and Bellafina. She has worked well for her return there is enough early speed in here things could set up for her to come running late at a generous price.
Mia Mischief has done some of her best running under the Twin Spires, winning 5 of 8 with a pair of seconds. She is coming off matching her career top speed fig winning the Carousel at Oaklawn Park by 4 ½ lengths. Among her wins last year was the Humana Distaff (G1) here on Derby Day. The Asmussen trainee makes her third start of her current form cycle and fits well here but may end up a light price.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
Santa Anita Race 7 Analysis - 5/30 (3:37 PT)
#5 Laura's Light 5-2
#8 Parkour 7-2
#7 Red Lark 12-1
#4 Croughhavouke 8-1
Analysis: Laura's Light pressed the early pace, took over the lead and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth last out on poly at Turfway Park in the Bourbonette Oaks. She is back on turf and she won the Sweet Life (G3) two back and the Blue Norther three back on the weeds here. She stretches out to nine furlongs and she looks capable of stretching out her speed another furlong on turf. She is out of a Muqtarib mare that has dropped two other turf winners.
Parkour took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-1 optional claimers last out here off nearly a three-month break. She finished behind our top pick two back when fourth in the Blue Norther, a race that has now produced three next out winners. That was her first start against winners, and she looks as if she still has some upside for the Mandella barn. Smith sticks and she should be able to handle nine furlongs.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #1 Bastet 10-1
R4: #7 Hidden Promise 8-1
R5: #1 Chili Nelson 12-1
R5: #7 Jerry’s Got Aces 10-1
R7: #4 Bell’s the One 15-1
R8: #10 Mud Pie 12-1
R8: #1 Aztec Empire 8-1
R9: #8 Cardamon 8-1
R10: #1 Kaziranga 15-1
R11: #7 Secret Message 8-1
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