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Weekly Bankroll Builder: May 29 Gulfstream Park Late Pk4 Play

May 27, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: May 29 Gulfstream Park Late Pk4 Play

Wednesday, May 27, 2020 by Host Brian Nadeau

We’re likely a week away from the return of the extremely popular Stronach 5, so let’s attack Friday’s late Pk4 at Gulfstream Park one more time, which has a few legs that could be ripe for big upsets. Here’s hoping the rains steer clear and we have a fair go of it.

Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter.

Race 7 (3:49 ET): 3up 30k claimer at 5 furlongs (turf)

Tossing the speed going this short over this turf course is always a worry, but there’s so much of it here that (barring a mass of scratches) I have to think this falls apart in the lane, and that’s how I’ll play it. And considering three of my four A’s are big prices, I like my strategy even more. The list starts with #5 OAK BLUFFS (10-1), who was last seen running a good 5th to better behind the raging Tiger Blood, so the drop, and a closing style that will be flattered by the race flow, just might get him there today. I’m very interested in #6 FUEL THE BERN (8-1), another dropper, and this one should be stalking the pace, and while he’s been on the dirt 11 straight, the turf run at the bottom of his PPs was solid, and he hinted he’s showing signs of life off that 5th last time. An outside attack post says you have to use #8 R BOY EVENS (5-2), but it’s worrisome Maker didn’t get any improvement from him off the claim, and one start later he’s willing to lose him for the same 30k, not to mention pressing/dueling early and holding on late—at an underlaid price—isn’t ideal for this spot. Lastly, I’ll toss in a real bomber in #10 HONOLULU EXPRESS (15-1), another closer who will run on late, likes the course (3-for-8), and really isn’t that far off these on paper anyway.

Pk4 A horses: 5,6,8,10 (listed in order of preference)

The two speeds inside are good—and very fast—which is why you read above how I’m playing this race, but I have a lot of respect for the form of #1 GOOD BYE GREG (9-2), and #2 APACHE BRAVE (3-1), and the former is off an October layoff for Rivelli, who is an insane 62% from a 39-horse sample off this elongated break, while the latter, with Lopez up and blinkers-on, could speed pop this group, so I’ll use them both, though ultimately I still think this falls apart.

Pk4 B horses: 2,1

Potential B add ins: NONE

Race 8: 3upfm Florida-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 6 furlongs

It’s going to be extremely tough to beat #7 FLORA FANTASY (7-5), who just won at the level last time, gets an even better pace setup today, keeps Irad, and goes off the claim for Delgado (34%) and Drawing Away, which means she could improve that much more off the win last time. And all of that is why I won’t try to beat her, and take the free square that she looks like.

Pk4 A horses: 7 (listed in order of preference)

I know #3 Sayonara Baby (9-2) was only a half-length behind ‘Fantasy last time, but she got loose that day and still couldn’t hold on, and there seems to be more speed here, so she looks like a very likely candidate to regress today, and so there will be no backups, since the rest just don’t stack up.

Pk4 B horses: NONE

Potential B add ins: #3 Sayonara Baby (9-2), #4 Assume Control (12-1)

Race 9: 3f 25k SAL at 5 furlongs (turf)

There’s plenty of speed in this turf dash too, but it’s looks best, so I’m definitely using #11 SWIRLING CANDY (5-2), who will be attacking under Irad off the Delgado claim (34%), and #6 TWEET AWAY ROBIN (7-2), who is off the Maker claim (15%) after an MCL dirt win by the length of the stretch. With that being said, the class-dropping #9 HAPPY LOUDON (15-1), who will be a big price, will also be closing late, has a lot of upside, and isn’t far off the top pair on paper either, so if it collapses, just maybe she blows this up from out of the clouds.

Pk4 A horses: 11,9,6 (listed in order of preference)

Working out a trip from down inside, and not getting fried by the pace, won’t be easy for #2 POSEIDON’S PASSION (3-1), but she did rate and win two-back, so maybe she can pull that trip again here, which would give her a chance, though easier said than done, hence her supporting role.

Pk4 B horses: 2

Potential B add ins: NONE

Race 10: 3up 12.5k N2L at 1-mile (turf)

It’s tough to get too cute in the finally, as the two MSW droppers—#6 WIND RIDGE (7-2) AND #7 SUPERHIGHWAY (9-2)—simply look better than a very weak bunch. I’ll side with the former, who has the best dirt race showing, will get more speed the rally into on the cutback to one-turn, and has a big recency edge on his main rival, not to mention will be a better price too. ‘Highway is going to be bet off the board for Brown, Klarman, and Irad, and he may well win, but he also hasn’t run since June, was always part of the B-team anyway, and frankly, was pretty bad in both starts, so sure, he still can win, but at short odds he’s not the type to stand alone with.

Pk4 A horses: 6,7 (listed in order of preference)

I could easily have put #5 NIMBLE BEAST (5-2) on the top line, as he may be a Lone F and almost wired at the level last time, but he stretches out a furlong here, and meets two stiff class droppers from potent connections, so I’m just not sure he can reproduce that run, even if he does clear.

Pk4 B horses: 5

Potential B add ins: NONE

The suggested tickets (all can be played for more than $0.50):

Main Ticket: 5,6,8,10 with 7 with 11,9,6 with 6,7 = $12
Race 7 B Backup: 2,1 with 7 with 11,9,6 with 6,7 = $6
Race 9 B Backup: 5,6,8,10 with 7 with 2 with 6,7 = $4
Race 10 B Backup: 5,6,8,10 with 7 with 11,9,6 with 5 = $6
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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 29, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

My focus will be on the Late Pick 4 at Northfield Park which starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool but it could be considerably higher. The pool on Wednesday night was a hefty $42,000.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

3-Kehmmywood (3/2)-Even effort in qualifier but veteran drops into a soft spot and knows how to win. Looking to start the ticket with a single and will hope 10-year-old brings a top effort.

Race 12

2-One More Mission (5/2)-Far back early but kept pacing through the mile in qualifier. Tune-up was on sloppy track but paced the back half in 57.1 and should be in the mix this evening.
3-Westfiftythird (7/2)-Wrenn takes a seat and that won't hurt. Should be forwardly placed in a race without much form, so best to respect.
6-Roscoe Village (12-1)-Even effort in tune-up on a sloppy track. Camera shy but he is not alone. Seems to be worth a swing at 12-1 in the morning line.
7-Trace Of Lindy (5-1)-Sold for $20,000 in November and now makes first start for the Smith barn. Has speed and also has had breaking issues. Maybe things are changing, has stayed on stride without hopples in last two qualifiers.
9-Dontyousayit (4-1)-Qualified well at ScD and has a win and a 2nd place finish in three starts at Nfld. Post doesn't help and is only 2-17 lifetime, but could be a threat versus this crew if Sugg provides a good steer.

Race 13

2-Blue Spanx (3-1)-Drops into a nice spot and comes off a strong qualifier. 2020 record is 0-15 but seems to have a big shot for a picture tonight.
5-Given Up Terror (2-1)-Comes off a nice qualifier and should like the company. Over the last 2-years has only 3 wins in 51 starts. Will use but look to others also for some value.
7-Mr I Am (20-1)-Fits with this bunch, raced well in qualifier and should be a big price. My guess is Stahl will leave and could find a close-up seat behind one of the chalks.
8-Striking Reality (15-1)-If pace is lively this 5-year-old can roll late and had a nice tune-up. The question is whether Grismore can get him into striking range. Looks to be worth the risk at 15-1 in the morning line.

Race 14

4-Otsego (7/5)-Steps down to a more comfortable spot after a needed start. Lightly raced 4-year-old could be sitting on a big try.
7-Setit And Forgetit (8-1)-Has finished in the money in 5 of 7 starts at Nfld with 2-wins. Hall will not be driving but whoever steers needs an alert start. 4-year-old can make one big brush and does know how to win.

$1 Pick 4

3/2,3,6,7,9/2,5,7,8/4,7
Total Bet=$40
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Veer Tactical sort takes a slight drop in class and enters with some decent enough form off her last two, and with just four starts there's still upside here, and with a strong favorite next door, she'll offer a hint of value as well; love her chances in here.
#6 Cactus Kitten Ramsey homebred daughter of Kitten's Joy debuts for Maker (13%) and has Irad, so she'll be bet hard, but yikes, she's being given away for 12.5k without even a run, which isn't a good sign for a gal with such a big pedigree; tread very lightly.
#7 Bettin Onna Kitten Stretch runner made a big late dent last time at a mile, when she rallied from last-of-11 to be 3rd, and it was on the drop to this level too, and you have to think she'll like the extra furlong she gets to deal with today as well; clearly the one to fear late.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the 5, most notably her tactical speed and her price, not to mention she faces a potentially vulnerable favorite and the rest of these gals aren't much, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since there are ore than a few here who will take play, and getting home a $10 or so winner will knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Fancified McPeek charge has turned into a new gal since getting to the turf, winning two straight, and while this group is tougher, she fits on paper, and her stretch running style might appreciate a taxing course with some give to it from all the recent rain; hat trick time.
#1 Toffen Heavy hitter is lightly raced and has a ton of upside, drew perfectly, and will be on or just off the pace, which means she's going to be in the right spot off the far turn, and she won't have to improve much, if not at all, off that recent 2nd to win this; the gal to beat.
#2 Hurricane Breeze ML favorite will be bet hard for Maker off the claim (15%), especially since it was for Dubb and Irad rides, but she exits just an MCL win, so this is a stiff rise in class, and with little margin for error, and underlaid odds, you're allowed to look elsewhere; trying to beat.
Race Summary You should get fair value on the pick, as both the 1 and 2 will be played more, even though the 7 is right there with them, and has yet to taste defeat on turf, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win in the $10 range, over two who will anchor a lot of tickers, will add plenty of value to both sequences.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Alpha Babe Magner firster (12%) is by the white-hot sire Malibu Moon, is out of a dam who is a half-sister to GI winner Funny Moon, and goes for a trainer who is from the tree of Pletcher and Brown, so he knows what to do with a young and talented horse; look out.
#1 Deemed Essential The chalk for Pletcher has Irad too, so don't expect any value here for a barn that is potent in these early season 2yos dashes, and they paid 125k for a daughter of 10k young sire Upstart, so she clearly looked the part, though the rail is no bargain; second-best.
#6 Go Jo Jo Go Tricky read was bet off the board on debut for a Yates barn that is firing, though she didn't have a fair go of it and was basically eased, so how she responds is a big guess, though the price will be a lot better if you're stringing along; far too early to give up on.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 3, as you want to see her live and taking money into the teeth of the 1, and if that's the case you can play her to win and place, though you'll get some built-in value by using her to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling 'Essential, even though there are a few hurdles, and the pick looks like a runner.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 Love You Goodbye Is starting to get short on excuses with four runner-up finishes from six starts, but she's pretty reliable and can get another good run from close range.
#9 Rumourist Debuter doesn't meet a whole lot at first asking, and the barn has been off to a hot start since racing resumed recently.
#4 Carpe Amorina Hit or miss form is still a concern, and even though the local debut was decent, that was still a huge lead she coughed up late in the lane. The one to beat.
Race Summary Love You Goodbye might get a bit overlooked with this bunch, and she's got the speed to be in the mix from the break. Carpe Amorina can win this, but I wouldn't be excited about taking another short price.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Lady Storm Will need to fire off the December break, but she has been razor-sharp in her last three, and she figures capable of controlling the tempo from the rail.
#6 Brushing Made a winning impression in the local debut when never headed at 3/2, and while that nine-length romp fits here if she's able to repeat it, that's a big 'if' on a pretty steep hike.
#9 Sniff Should get a decent run of things from close range, and she has a really solid ability to rate that will give her rider some options for placing her after the break.
Race Summary Lady Storm has enough pace to find the front in here, but she also won her last from well off the splits. She's dangerous and the one to beat in this spot.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Anna's Bandit Won't offer any price, but it's really tough to get past her. She has been a bear with the local company and won two stakes here last year by nearly nine lengths combined. She was recently a good third with Grade III company and should handle these.
#1 Parisian Diva Looks like the main danger, but any pace pressure is going to hurt her the most from the fence. Her local record of 13/9-2-1 is tough to argue with, but the top choice might just be too good.
#3 Cameron Street Is totally overmatched with these on paper, but she occasionally sucks up for a piece late, and that may be her best chance -- sit back and let everything unfold in hopes that enough horses come back to them late to land a piece.
Race Summary Anna's Bandit looks very tough, and she owns five wins from seven local tries. Her recent form towers over these on the drop.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 McARTER Best value play against bad bunch of rivals.
#6 EATAAMSALLFIREDUP Looks best on paper but he’s 0-for-16.
#9 LOTSAPEPPERONI Meadows invader draws post 9 for 33 percent trainer.
Race Summary McArter chased short-priced runaways in his last two starts and paced evenly in a race dominated by deep closers at Lexington. He can run past this field at a decent price. Play a 3-6-9 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 RAIN MISS Has ability, will try to show it for new barn in seasonal debut.
#1 BE A BELIEVER Solid freshman season in sire stakes, starts from rail.
#2 B ANKING Mare got caught by pocket-sitter after race fave broke stride early.
Race Summary Rain Miss attracted a lot of betting attention at the fairs, put it all together in an 11-length romp, now gets Lasix for his new connections. Play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 CAPTAIN’S REIGN Tries to upstage runner-up finishes and reward loyal backers.
#6 ROBUSTO BLUE CHIP Gets plenty of pace to rally into at a price, use in gimmicks.
#4 COUSIN LOUIE Good first gear, won nine races last year, mostly at fairs.
Race Summary Captain’s Reign was the beaten favorite in 3 of 4 starts out of town, but he did manage to finish second three times. He’s the one to beat for top connections. Play 2 with 4, 6 with ALL trifecta.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 Fast Flash Gordon Closed for 3rd vs. stronger field and should appreciate the 400 yards; one to hold off.
#3 Im Fearless Held 3rd in a derby trial last out and has been in good form this year; clearly capable of running a big one.
#6 Haggard Was 2nd in his last three, once against track-record breaker Df Lord Garvan; fits well here.
Race Summary Fast Flash Gordon has run out of real estate in his last two and can put to good use the additional 50 yards of this one.

Remington Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Copper Wire Drops to a maiden spot after running against top paints in futurity trials and a final; his best can make him a strong player.
#3 Bv Snow Chrome Lost by a length last time and should be able to secure a better trip; two of his three starts were good.
#5 Tunrpikers Candy Didn't fire in his only start, which came in a futurity trial; bred to be a runner.
Race Summary Copper Wire has taken on some strong opposition and should find this level of competition to his liking.

Remington Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Glitter and Gold Ran on well for 2nd last out and takes a slight drop; has been on an extended run of good form.
#5 Prohibitive Flopped as the favorite last time but his best races would make him a s solid contender.
#8 El Malkerido Tired as the favorite last time and was a good 2nd two back; can make a run at these.
Race Summary Glitter and Gold rarely runs a bad one and has a good chance to outfinish this group; can secure his 1st win of the year.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 13 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, TWO YEAR OLD NEW MEXICO BREDS THAT ARE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE 2020 MOUNTAIN TOP QUARTER HORSE FUTURITY TRIALS: WEIGHT 124 LBS. ALL HORSES MUST ENTER FOR THE TRIALS ON FRIDAY MAY 22, 2020 BY 10:00 A M AND PAY THE $800 ENTRY FEE, IF THEY ARE TO RUN IN THE TRIALS. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $15,000 WILL BE ACCEPTED AT TIME OF ENTRY

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SIGNATURE WINE 15/1

# 2 ABIJAH 5/2

# 5 SALEENA 6/1

SIGNATURE WINE looks to be a solid contender especially at such a decent 15/1. Sire has produced strong gains with his offspring in their first tries. ABIJAH - Vaunts sound speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. He looks very strong in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. This gelding has a strong winning percentage in short races. SALEENA - Investors may be making a risky move ignoring this conditioner working with a maiden first time starter.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

05/29/20, TAM, Race 6, 3.11 ET
05/29/20,TAM,6,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $20,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $75,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 29 Allowed 2 lbs. Such ARace Since March 29 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $75,000 (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 10 Gravitas 6-1 Centeno D Thomas Jonathan TFWL 31.91 1.30/$1
095.87 4 Cadet Connelly 6-1 Allen. Jr. R D Connelly Teresa 36.17 1.52/$1
095.71 1 Danzing Dunhill 7/2 Gallardo A A Weaver George JSE 25.00 1.41/$1
094.02 8 Matty's Express 5-1 Spieth S Dini Michael 32.76 1.27/$1
093.86 7 Alley Oop Johnny 10-1 Mena R Rigattieri John 28.85 1.32/$1
093.25 3 Summer Assault 3-1 Suarez A Boyce Michele 36.17 1.52/$1
092.38 9 Mecha Corta 6-1 Batista J A Gutierrez Fausto 25.00 1.41/$1
091.86 6 Tapage 15-1 Mejia T B Harty Eoin G. 32.76 1.27/$1
090.30 5 Buffalo Max 30-1 Villa-Gomez H Raines Lindsey Marie C 25.00 1.41/$1
088.64 2 Battle Creek 20-1 Lopez J E Ali Alnaz 32.76 1.27/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 40.00, ROI 1.36/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 10 Gravitas 6-1 Centeno D Thomas Jonathan TFL 38.46 2.05/$1
097.09 4 Cadet Connelly 6-1 Allen. Jr. R D Connelly Teresa E 63.64 3.75/$1
095.85 1 Danzing Dunhill 7/2 Gallardo A A Weaver George J 36.90 1.17/$1
094.89 3 Summer Assault 3-1 Suarez A Boyce Michele S 63.64 3.75/$1
094.33 7 Alley Oop Johnny 10-1 Mena R Rigattieri John 63.64 3.75/$1
094.01 8 Matty's Express 5-1 Spieth S Dini Michael 28.57 1.20/$1
093.02 6 Tapage 15-1 Mejia T B Harty Eoin G. W 28.57 1.20/$1
092.90 9 Mecha Corta 6-1 Batista J A Gutierrez Fausto 36.90 1.17/$1
090.95 5 Buffalo Max 30-1 Villa-Gomez H Raines Lindsey Marie C 28.57 1.20/$1
089.72 2 Battle Creek 20-1 Lopez J E Ali Alnaz 28.57 1.20/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.30, ROI 0.70/$1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 VEER (ML=5/1)
#13 HERCULINA (ML=10/1)

VEER - After the race aboard this horse on May 7th, the jockey is going to be in touch with the filly much better. A big drop in Equibase class figure points from her May 7th race at Gulfstream Park. Based on that information, I will give this horse the advantage. HERCULINA - This animal could be tough in today's contest, especially since Rodriguez rode last race out and now should be more familiar with this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CACTUS KITTEN (ML=2/1), #11 SUBTLE JOY (ML=3/1), #7 BETTIN ONNA KITTEN (ML=9/2),

CACTUS KITTEN - Trying to beat this horse this time around at the value of 2/1. SUBTLE JOY - You believe this animal is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly. BETTIN ONNA KITTEN - Would have to get more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2 to play this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 VEER is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with 13 with [1,4,12] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[5,13] with [5,13] with [1,4,6,12] with [1,4,6,12] with [1,4,6,12] Total Cost: $48
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