Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 5/29/20
Horse Races Today: Friday's Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds
May 28, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
Yet another racetrack is going to be back in action this weekend, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan giving Laurel Park the green light to race without spectators starting on Saturday.
Coming up tomorrow there will be seven thoroughbred tracks in action and three quarterhorse tracks, the most action we have seen in months.
The feature at Churchill Downs on Saturday is the $100,000 Winning Colors (G3), a six-furlong sprint on the main track for fillies and mares that drew a field of eight.
The Steve Asmussen trained Mia Mischief is the 8-5 morning line. The mare won the Carousel at Oaklawn Park in her most recent outing.
Her main rivals include Break Even (9-5) who has won seven of her nine career starts and Spiced Perfection (7-2) who won the Go for Wand Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct last December.
The co-feature is the nightcap, the $100,000 Mint Julep (G3) which drew a field of field of 14 fillies and mares that will go 1 1/16 miles on turf.
The Brad Cox trained Juliet Foxtrot is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The mare makes her first start since a third-place finish in the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar last December.
In addition, we will head out to Santa Anita tomorrow where the feature is the $100,000 Honeymoon (G3) for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Nine go to the post led by the 2-1 morning line favorite Stella Star, who ran second in the China Doll in March. The filly was making her U.S. debut after four starts in Ireland highlighted by a victory in the Killavullan Stakes (G3) at Leopardstown last October.
To purchase my Churchill Downs Report for Friday click here.
Fox Sports 2 will cover the action from Churchill Downs today from 12:30 to 2:30 and 4:30 to 5:30 ET today. The NBC Sports Network will cover horse racing action from 4:00 to 7:00 ET. In addition, horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:
Churchill Downs Race 1 Analysis - 5/29 (1:00 ET)
#7 Heavy Roller 3-1
#3 Curlin Rules 7-2
#1 Jungle Warfare / 1a Shivermetimbers 5-2
#5 Super Dude 8-1
Analysis: Heavy Roller invades from New York for the Atras barn that has hit at a 38% clip on the year. The gelding was not much of a threat last out in a sixth-place finish in the Bernardini last out going 1 5/16 miles. He was second two back over a wet track against $25,000 starter allowance foes, a race that produced a couple of next out winners. He beat $50,000 claimers three back in his first go off the claim and that outing came in the slop. He has won 4 of 10 on wet tracks and may catch another one today. Slow works on the morning tab in New York but that is not unusual for this high % barn.
Curlin Rules dueled for the early lead and finished gamely to prevail by a neck over $50,000 claimers last out at Oaklawn Park. It was his first win since beating Alw-1 foes at Santa Anita last October. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and while he was fourth in his lone trip over a wet track, he is bred to love one. He looks capable of winning right back in this spot.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 8 Analysis - 5/28 (4:21 ET)
#9 Leinster 4-1
#3 Real News 8-1
#4 Totally Boss 3-1
#10 Extravagant Kid 7-2
Analysis: Leinster returns off a 6 1/2-month layoff here for the Arnold barn. The five-year-old checked in seventh in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) in his last outing. He went into that race off three solid efforts including a win in the Troy (G3) and a game runner up finish two back in the Woodford (G2) at Keeneland. His won trip here was last June where he beat Alw-2 foes. The barn is just 2 for 22 with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff dating back two years. This guy was working quickly at Palm Meadows and has a capable of drills at Keeneland. He looks ready and this is a good spot here.
Real News won the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint at Sam Houston in his last outing back in January. He has landed in the exacta in 5 of his 6 trips on turf. This colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and has worked quickly at Fair Grounds. The colt looks as if he has matured over his three-year-old campaign for the Stall barn. The barn is 13% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Churchill Downs
R1: #5 Super Dude 8-1
R3: #3 Proven Warrior 8-1
R4: #12 Lemon Blitz 12-1
R5: #3 Automate 8-1
R7: #10 Early Mischief 12-1
R8: #3 Real News 8-1
R9: #9 Alex’s Strike 8-1
Friday's Best Bet: Munnings' Pilot can lead the way at Santa Anita
By Jarrod Horak
Friday’s 5th race from Santa Anita Park is a $62,500 maiden claiming event for three-year-olds and up traveling one mile on the turf course (Post Time - 5:37 p.m. ET).
#1 MUNNINGS' PILOT (5-1) had an uncomfortable trip from the inside post in his straight maiden turf sprint bow Feb. 22. Richard Baltas gives sharp turf rider Umberto Rispoli a leg up, and he fired a bullet for this May 16.
#4 Railsplitter (7-2) dropped, set the pace, and held 2nd in a $75,000 affair at this course/distance Feb. 21. He might be the target under Abel Cedillo.
#7 Fantastic Day (8-1) is a first time gelding with Flavien Prat in the saddle. This $500,000 sales grad was fractious and outrun in his dirt route bow for Bob Baffert Feb. 22. Dan Blacker has him now and dam has produced a turf winner.
#6 Fengari (5-2) was an even 4th in a similar local spot Feb. 8. He owns competitive numbers but Flavien Prat abandons.
#3 Cool Runnings (8-1) hit the board in three of his first four starts for Keith Desormeaux. The special weight dropper might be competitive in this spot.
#9 Camps Bay (4-1) hit the board in half of his twelve turf starts. He can rally for a share again.
Wagers:
#1 to win
Trifecta 1-4/1-4/3-6-7-9
Trifecta 1-4-7/1-3-4-6-7/9
May 2020 Best Bet Winners
May 6 - LAWTON ($8.80), Exacta ($29.00), Trifecta ($50.60)
May 7 - KOKO STAR ($7.80), Trifecta ($171.70)
May 12 - Always In the Munny/Sweet Carolina Exacta ($21.60)
May 24 - Border Town/Mountain Spirit/Southern King Trifecta ($209.40)
May 25 - Restrainedvengence/Kiwi's Dream Exacta ($9.20)
May 27 - A BUNCH FOR LUNCH ($10.40), Exacta ($50.80)
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 7
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager $1 Late Double
Maiden Claiming $6,250 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $7,545 • Post: 8:48P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HAWKS MAIN INTEREST: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LA ZAINA DE NOGALES: Horse ranks in the top three in T rackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PERRY THE LEGACY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2
HAWKS MAIN INTEREST
2/1
7/2
6
LA ZAINA DE NOGALES
3/1
9/2
5
PERRY THE LEGACY
5/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
VF FIRST PRIZE MAMA
1
5/2
Average/Trouble-prone
71
56
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
HAWKS MAIN INTEREST
2
2/1
Fast/Trouble-prone
75
71
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
PERRY THE LEGACY
5
5/1
Average/Trouble-prone
71
58
5.2
0.0
0.0
6
LA ZAINA DE NOGALES
6
3/1
Average/Trouble-prone
72
66
0.0
0.0
0.0
7
JUNES LIGHT
7
15/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 1
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 69 • Purse: $9,700 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FAMOUS FIRE EAGLE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. TEMPTING MONEY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HERES A QUE STION: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. IMA DESIRIO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
FAMOUS FIRE EAGLE
3/1
5/1
9
TEMPTING MONEY
8/1
7/1
4
HERES A QUESTION
5/1
7/1
3
IMA DESIRIO
4/1
7/1
6
SOUTHERN SEPERATION
15/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
DREAM ARTIST
1
15/1
Slow
0
0
6.2
0.0
0.0
2
OKEY DOKEYS COCKTAIL
2
20/1
Slow
0
0
8.3
0.0
0.0
3
IMA DESIRIO
3
4/1
Average
75
61
4.6
0.0
0.0
4
HERES A QUESTION
4
5/1
Fast
70
63
3.1
0.0
0.0
5
CAPTURE DE STARS
5
12/1
Fast
65
52
3.4
0.0
0.0
6
SOUTHERN SEPERATION
6
15/1
Average
65
62
5.6
0.0
0.0
7
FAMOUS FIRE EAGLE
7
3/1
Average
69
69
3.6
0.0
0.0
8
OKLAHOMA BANDIT
8
6/1
Average
69
32
5.1
0.0
0.0
9
TEMPTING MONEY
9
8/1
Average
71
67
5.0
0.0
0.0
10
MY FIRST PRIZE LEENA
10
10/1
Average
57
53
3.8
0.0
0.0