Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/28/20
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Horse Races Today: Thursday's Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds
May 27, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
While there has been some movement toward possibly seeing major sports return soon, horse racing continues to offer plenty of betting action for players and we got more good news this week.
It looks as is if Laurel Park in Maryland will reopen on Saturday. Gov. Larry Hogan still needs to give the Maryland Jockey Club the green light, but it appears it is coming.
Keeneland, which had its spring meeting wiped out due to the pandemic will race after all although a much shorter meeting. The Lexington, Kentucky track will run from July 8-12.
In those five days of racing there will be 10 stakes races including the $600,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
Other Grade 1 races include the $400,000 Ashland, $300,000 Maker’s Mark, $350,000 Jenny Wiley, and the $250,000 Madison.
There was big news coming out of the three-year-old division as word was leaked that Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Charlatan may have failed a post race drug test. The Bob Baffert trainee is undefeated and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
Multiple sources reported that the colt tested positive and the split sample results would be back shortly. The word is the drug is a regulated therapeutic medication. Although the drug is legal to administer, it must be below a certain threshold for racing.
It is likely the colt would be disqualified from the win if the test comes back positive, which would cost him the Derby points he earned. It would still be possible the colt could still earn enough points to make it to Louisville on the first Saturday of September.
We start the week off be heading out to Churchill Downs for a solid 10-race card. We need to put Monday in the rearview mirror as my bankroll took a serious hit. It was not a good day.
Fox Sports 2 will cover the action from Churchill Downs from 1:00 to 6:00 ET today. In addition, horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Churchill Downs or Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opening race from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:
Churchill Downs Race 1 Analysis - 5/28 (1:00 ET)
#3 Comedian 3-1
#4 Cigar Box 10-1
#8 Samaronti 5-2
#6 And Seek 3-1
Analysis: Comedian drops in for a tag her after checking in fifth last out against Alw-2L foes at Oaklawn Park going a mile. He was fifth two back off a three month break against Alw-1 company. He has come up short in his first allowance condition a few too many times but looks like a good fit here and he is bred to handle a wet track if the rains come. His last pair of speed figs fit well here and he owns a solid pace profile throughout.
Cigar Box was not a threat in a sixth-place finish last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes in his first start against winners. The top pair exited that race to win next out, the winner Silvery Enough came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs in his next outing on May 20. He was a smart looking maiden winner two back against $50,000 maiden claimers, his fifth career start and first for a tag. His two routes were not good and one of those was in the slop, but he does have the pedigree to handle more ground. He gets a jock upgrade from the seven-pound bug to Cohen. Willing to give him another look here and he should be a generous price.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 8 Analysis - 5/28 (4:21 ET)
#11 Silver Ratio 9-2
#10 Unshaken 8-1
#1 Portos 4-1
#5 Dukes Up 7-2
Analysis: Silver Ratio is one of two Pletcher trainees in here. The colt was third last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at Gulfstream Park at a mile after a tough trip. The colt was pushed outward and bothered at the break and forced to steady, stalked the early pace, came with a four wide bid and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish as the beaten favorite. The colt caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. The colt has worked quickly at Palm Beach Downs since his last outing and looks capable of handling his first trip around two turns.
Unshaken faces winners for the first time here after a sharp maiden score last out at Gulfstream Park going 6 1/2 furlongs in his second career start. The effort t was flattered when three he beat in that outing came back to graduate in their next starts. That effort was his fourth since a decent fourth in his debut at Keeneland last spring. He now goes from McLaughlin, who is now a jockey agent to Stidham, who is 21% winners with newcomers to the barn. This guy should have no problem handling the stretch out, by Tapit out of the Grade 1 winner Composure ($731,300). She is bred to handle a wet track.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #4 Cigar Box 10-1
R2: #7 Tiz a Bit Lucky 10-1
R3: #10 Girl From Berlin 10-1
R3: #6 Longleggedlaverne 12-1
R5: #7 Kimberly Dream 8-1
R6: #2 Ezmosh 12-1
R7: #4 Delachaise 8-1
R8: #10 Unshaken 8-1
R10: #7 Jacks Fire Balls 10-1
R10: #3 Draw the Line 8-1
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