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Al Cimaglia: May 26-Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 26, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park will be back in action tonight with a 15-race card starting at 6:00 PM EST. My focus will be on the Late Pick 4 which has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and that sequence begins in Race 11.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Magic Shark (4-1)-Should like the company and would be best on a dry surface. Qualifier and 3 of 4 previous starts were on a wet track versus better. Doesn't have a win in 11 tries on an-off track.
8-Seattle Hanover (7/2)-Burke trainee comes off a measured win in last week's qualifier and should be in the mix with this group.
9-He Can Fly N (4-1)-Wasn't used hard in qualifier and post makes for a better price. Likes the track, winning 9 of 35 Nfld starts and has fared well against better.

Race 12

1-Final Breath (2-1)-10-year-old Ohio bred has won 33% of lifetime starts and should make the most of leaving from the rail.
2-Wind Of The North (5/2)-Here's another 10-year-old who knows his way to the winner's circle. Bercury barn is winning at a 39% clip in 2020 and this veteran has won 10 of 20 at Nfld. Drew off by 14 in qualifier, best to respect.
8-Perlucky (7/2)-5 year-old is in his prime winning 11 of 31 starts in 2019. Burke pupil can leave to get a good early seat and should be rolling late looking for the fifth picture of this year.

Race 13

2-Major Nemesis (9/5)-Bercury-Merriman combo is back again, made short work of the qualifier and looks ready to roll here. Fits well with this group and should be well backed.
3-Stride Of Pride (4-1)-Another Burke trainee who has come out ready off the bench. It will be an interesting start and if Page can get the pocket behind #2 it could lead to an upset.

Race 14

2-Just Bookem (9/5)-Didn't work up much of a sweat in qualifier but there wasn't a need to be aggressive in the slop. This is a good spot to pick-up first victory of 2020. Winner of 10 in 51 tries at Nfld should be a major player.

$1 Pick 4

1,8,9/1,2,8/2,3/2
Total Bet=$18
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 Three Footer Lightly raced runner rises in class of a solid N2L win, and while this group is tougher, neither favorite is all that imposing, and there's still plenty of upside here too; call right back.
#4 Where's Rufus The chalk hits hard after just missing twice at the level, but note his figures are sliding badly, he's burned a lot of money lately, and has no margin for error; trying to beat on top.
#6 Songster Heavy hitter is another who will be bet hard after a wakeup 2nd last time, but the 10-1 is long gone, and blowing that big late lead doesn't sit too well at false odds; undernath only.
Race Summary That 4-1 ML would be plenty of value on the pick, as he looks as good as anyone, and seems like he's improving, while the 4 and 6 can't say the same, so play him aggressively to win and place at 3-1 or better, while getting some added value by using him in the late Pk5 and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since a win over two who are heavier on the ML would knock out plenty of tickets.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Hot Blooded Song Stalker was a decent 5th last time in a very fast race for the level, catches a group with plenty of pace to aid his run, and will be a very square price too; upset special.
#6 Como Se Llamo ML favorite has run well in two straight at the level, has Olesiak, and is best on paper, but at a short price while facing other speed, a win might be a big ask; second-best.
#5 Peacock Cowboy Logical contender fired a big shot when 3rd last time, and a repeat makes him a big threat here, but you wonder if regression is coming off such a big run; mixed signals.
Race Summary The price and the race flow will be right on the 10, as he's going to get the right setup to make a late dent, which is something he didn't get last time, so play him in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.

Fonner Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Smarty Party Papa Stalker takes a stiff class drop after running well against much better in his last two, will be sitting just off the pace, which will allow first run on his two biggest rivals, and wins this with ease if he runs back to either of his last two; imposing.
#4 Runarounddancing Stretch runner is another dropper, though he wasn't facing the kind the pick was, but still, this group will help wake him up, though his lack of early speed means he's going to be spotting 'Papa a few lengths off the far turn; rallies too late.
#2 Dukati Deep closer was 2nd, beaten just a nose, at the level last time, so he's in form, but he was also well beaten by the pick two-back, and will be the furthest back of them all early, which won't help his chances late; using underneath, if at all.
Race Summary That 5-2 ML likely will be about 7-5 by post, as the 7 is simply a better, classier animal than the rest of these, so make an aggressive win bet at 8-5 or higher, though his real value comes in ending the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since you cans single him, which will allow for deeper coverage in the preceding races, since this one looks all about the favorite.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 Californiasummer Worth a bit of a price look in the opener after making that nice middle move last out before tiring. That came against better, and something similar keeps her in the frame at a price.
#8 Mongol Call Drops off a good effort last time out, and this is a softer spot than she saw that day. Tactical type should be there.
#5 Dixie Delta Finisher is a good fit here, but the price gets quite a bit shorter this afternoon than it was in those last two starts.
Race Summary Californiasummer ran a pretty good race last time out when making a good move into the pace and then going flat with a better group. This conditioned spot should suit her better.

Fonner Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Warrior's Lullaby Forward player is in excellent form right now and should be able to handle these if he holds that form. The price isn't going to be much, but he always shows up, and that counts for something in a spot like this.
#6 Astonishing Tweet Romped in those last two at this trip, but they came with easier groups that contained nothing like the top choice that he'll have to face today. Not impossible, but thinking he winds up an underlay on the hike after a three-race form cycle that makes it look unlikely that he's going to repeat that last one.
#5 Out of Patience Reliable type looks like more of an underneath player with this bunch. He always runs his race, but his ceiling isn't quite as high as a few in here, and he's likely to find one or two of these a bit too tough today.
Race Summary Warrior's Lullaby has a right to be tough, and the hope is that Astonishing Tweet will take some cash when it looks to me like he's sitting on a step back.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Name the Price Worth a small look at a decent number off a trio of pretty nice races to open his career. The waters get deeper here, but he may not yet have shown his best stuff.
#9 Super Charlie Has a right to be pretty tough with these, but the price is going to get pretty short off a race that he's no sure thing to repeat.
#7 Be My Shadow His form is a bit spotty, but his best stuff keeps him in the mix with this group. Wouldn't want anything shorter than the 7/2 ML offering to even think about it.
Race Summary Name the Price has tactical pace and has done little wrong through three starts. He may still have a forward move in him that would allow him to play with this group at a square price.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 POWER OF LUCK Drops, draws favorably, won 7 of 24 since 2019.
#3 STARDUST MEMORIES Won qualifier with Wrenn, adds value to gimmicks.
#4 SPLURGE ON ME Second to fave at Miami Valley, sheds hopples.
Race Summary Power of Luck gets class relief, moves outside-in and gets driver upgrade as racing returns to Northfield for first time since coronavirus outbreak. Play 2-3 and 2-4 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 MCLUCKY Ran well after sick absence, could fire fresh again.
#3 THINK BIGGER Led long way in qualifier, figures tough on drop.
#1 STOP THE TRAFFIC Lots of thirds on resume, draws the rail.
Race Summary Mclucky earned his top recent speed figure after three weeks away, had useful qualifier and offers fair value at 5-1 on the morning line. Play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#6 CAROLINA BEACH Take cue off earlier races, tries to conquer familiar foe.
#7 SOUTHWIND AMAZON Always an underlay, almost always wins.
#1 REAL PEACH Second to 2-to-5 fave at Meadows, romped in qualifier.
Race Summary Carolina Beach has been competitive against winning machine Southwind Amazon and romped in his qualifier against two rivals entered earlier on tonight’s card and offers some betting value. Play 6-1 and 6-7 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Man Camp Won at this 4F distance two back and then tired going longer last time; gets a rider change to Manrrique, who is 24 percent this season.
#1 Retrofit Has taken 3 of 4 here this year, all wins being at this 4F distance; ran just under :46 in one of those win and a repeat of that will make him a powerful foe.
#5 Knight Disruptor Won an optional claiming race at 6F last out and has a couple of wins to his credit here; Martinez-Martinez combo always tough.
Race Summary Man Camp is accustomed to the shorter sprints and is somewhat of a specialist; can run with any of these early and can wear them down.

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Diesel's Prize Stretches out to two turns in what will be his final Fonner appearance. The 12-year-old is in good form with two 3rds and two 4ths here this season can will be a forward factor throughout. He might remind older Fonner fans of the old-timers such as Wild Wink, Arian Ray and Great Pumpkin 40 years ago; each ran to the local age limit.
#8 Witt'sdollarnight Has been 2nd in his last four starts here and was claimed by the Haar stable last out; likes being on or near the front and can be a factor there.
#4 Dreamer's Point Finished 5th going 6F in his 1st local start after racing at Delta Downs, Oaklawn and Will Rogers Downs this year. Seeks his 1st win since November and drops to the bottom claiming price.
Race Summary Diesel's Prize comes out of decent sprints, can be close to the lead in this one and can dig in late as he stretches out in distance.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Rock City Roadhog Failed in his attempt to repeat in the Bosselman-Gus Fonner Stakes and has been badly beaten going long in his last two; has been with stronger company all along the way and this 10-year-old should be difficult to beat as he turns back to 6F.
#7 Dance Doctor Hasn't won in nearly a lead and was 3rd in an allowance race two back at Will Rogers Downs; started the season at Fonner, where he was 3rd in an allowance.
#2 Lovethatcause Blistered his competition by daylight in his last two and won at this level last out; can battle throughout.
Race Summary Rock City Roadhog has won 22 races for $566K and has clearly lost interest in running long distances; the mutliple stakes winner is back to a sprint, where's he done well much of the time. His last win came at this distance last August.
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InkBets esports

DH Masters EU: GODSENT +1.5 v fnatic @ 1.74/-135 (3 Units)
-Gotta wonder what's going on with fnatic. They're slumping horribly hard, having lost 6 of their last 9 BO3's, and only covering the -1.5 in ONE of those series which was versus coL and scraped by 19-16 16-14. I sat out their game versus Spirit today to get a look at them, and it's nothing better. The 13 days off after Road to Rio did nothing to better them as a team and that shouldn't change overnight.GODSENT, on the other hand, showed some real promise versus FaZe. Farlig was implemented into that lineup seamlessly and appears to be a massive upgrade in firepower over Maikelele. Exactly what that team needed, and it should pay off. I'd expect to see a bit of a honeymoon period out of them, and it very briefly started today, despite having lost the BO3 to FaZe.Last note here - MAPS. There is no punish pick for fnatic. Normally that would be Mirage versus certain teams but GODSENT permaban that leaving fnatic with no real strongarm pick. Couple that with GODSENT presumably having the Nuke or Vertigo pick and we should see GODSENT taking a map here far more often than not. I'd price this closer to 1.65/-154 being SHARP for the dog handi.

Home Sweet Home: Heroic -5.5 v Ambush @ 1.80/-125 (2.5 Units)
-Absolute mismatch in class between these two. I saw this line and had to double check Ambush was the team I was thinking of, as I'd have expected this to be closer to -7.5 -110 for Heroic. Considering lines are worth 25-30c in CSGO by default, would make my theoretical sharp line at -5.5 -160 at best. Good edge here and in a Best of 1, Heroic holds a gigantic edge in depth and should be able to narrow it down & dismiss of Ambush with ease.

DH Masters NA: 100 Thieves ML v GenG @ 2.25/+125 (1.5 Units)
-I was going to hold off on this game, but seeing as this line rose to this point I'll take a small stake. There are a lot of unknowns going into this with 100T adding ImAPet as coach several weeks back which could add a load of uniqueness to otherwise a relatively dull roster. They've always had the cohesion and teamplay, but lacked the sort of randomness in a sense to actually be convincing that they're a GOOD team.Add a lot of unknowns to the equation and I don't think you can firmly call anybody a true favorite in this match. It's as pure of a 5050 as you'll find and +125 is saying 100T has barely over a 44% chance. I'll take 6% edge in any market every day of the week.
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