Friday 5/22/20 handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Bundesliga Soccer
By Joe Williams
There is tremendous excitement after a successful return to action last weekend in the Bundesliga, Germany's top-flight soccer league, after a two-month pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation.
Matchday 26 kicked off seamlessly and all 18 teams were in action.
The nine games were played in front of no fans and a lack of homefield advantage was evident as only one home team was able to capture three points on its own turf.
That decision was expected as Borussia Dortmund blanked Schalke 04 by a 4-0 score as a heavy home favorite from Signal-Iduna Park.
For bettors keeping track, road teams went 5-1 overall to go with three draws while total players saw the ‘over’ go 5-3-1 perhaps 6-3 depending on your legal US Sportsbook of choice.
Matchday 27 begins on Friday and with just the second-ever Berlin derby in the German capital and we're attacking the books with our top Bundesliga Picks for the lone matchup.
Bundesliga - Matchday 27
Friday's Best Bets
Hertha Berlin vs. FC Union Berlin
Date: Friday, May 22
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1, DraftKings Stream
Bundesliga Betting Odds
Hertha Berlin (+135)
FC Union Berlin (+210)
Draw (+230)
Hertha Berlin returned from the hiatus with a 3-0 whitewashing against Hoffenheim on the road. Manager Bruno Labbadia pushed all of the right buttons, getting Hertha off on the right foot. The only thing that didn't go right was Hertha was singled out for their goal celebrations, which didn't adhere to the social distancing rules. They couldn't help but forget, as they were scoring early and often.
For Union, they were dropped 2-0 by table leader Bayern Munich in their return to action, but truth be told, it wasn't that shabby of a showing. Of course, that was on their home pitch. Now they hit the road (albeit just across town) to meet Hertha. Union has posted just three wins away from home, and they have posted just one shutout or clean sheet in their 13 road matches in 2019-20. So they will have their work cut out for them against the team just ahead of them in the Bundesliga table.
Hertha BSC sits at 8-11-7 with a minus-13 goal differential across 26 matches, good for 11th. FC Union Berlin is 9-14-3 with a minus-11 goal differential across 26 matches this season, so the difference in results for each club so far has been rather negligible.
Bundesliga - Friday's Money-Line Pick
Hertha BSC (+135)
For my top Bundesliga pick on Friday, Hertha is a solid money-line wager on their home pitch, especially after they annihilated TSG 1899 Hoffenheim on the road.
Bundesliga - Friday's Over-Under Pick
Over 2.5 goals (-114)
Taking the over is looks very solid for bettors making Bundesliga picks on Friday. Hertha certainly had their goal-scoring boots on in their return to action, showing they have the offensive firepower to take care of the over all by their lonesome. Over 2.5 goals has been hit in six consecutive Bundesliga matches for Hertha, albeit five of those were before the long layoff.
Over 2.5 goals has also hit in five of the past six road matches for Union, so there is a trend here that points to many goals in the backs of the respective nets. Hertha has also scored at least two goals in each of their past three matches, while conceding at least two goals in each of the past three matches at home. Union has also allowed two goals in three straight matches, too.
Bundesliga Betting Preview: Best Bets, Odds for Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund
May 21, 2020
By Marco Stein
Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund Preview & Betting Tips
Germany’s Bundesliga was the first of the big 5 European soccer leagues to return to action from the Covid-19 lockdown.
Five of the top six wasted no time in getting back into their stride last weekend by winning their respective matches.
Among those winners were Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg and the pair will now meet for a big clash on Saturday.
Bundesliga - Matchday 27
Saturday's Best Bets
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Date: Saturday, May 23
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
TV: FS1, DraftKings Stream
Bundesliga Betting Odds
Dortmund (-143)
Wolfsburg (+350)
Draw (+300)
Wolfsburg still on the march
Wolfsburg are sitting sixth in the Bundesliga, but they are a long way off the points-pace in terms of the title race. Heading into the weekend’s action they are trailing second-placed Dortmund by a massive fifteen points.
On their return, Wolfsburg dug out a 2-1 away win over the struggling FC Augsburg thanks to a stoppage-time winner from Daniel Ginczek. That was their seventh game unbeaten in the top flight.
Those three points earned did see them continue their climb up the table. Wolfsburg had suffered 7 defeats in a run of 10 games before their current seven-match undefeated streak. But they still look too big of a risk to support to pull off an upset for a big reason.
Wolfsburg aren’t carrying much home form with them this season.
It is just a W4 D6 L3 record that Die Wölfe holds at the Volkswagen Arena this term. Home and away combined, they have returned just one win from eight games played against others in the current top-eight positions (D3 L4).
Just 38% of Wolfsburg’s home games in this season’s Bundesliga have made it over the 2.5 goal line. However, going over the 2.5 goal line for +150 may be the way to swing in Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund betting.
That’s because seven of Wolfsburg’s last nine league games have made it over 2.5 goals, four of the last seven have ended over 3.5 goals. So with the prolific Dortmund coming to town, the goals may well flow in this game.
Head to head
Dortmund claimed a 3-0 win over Wolfsburg earlier this season
Borussia Dortmund are an unbeaten W8 D1 in their last nine against Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg have failed to score in any of their last six games against Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund average three goals per game across their last three trips to Wolfsburg
Borussia Dortmund back in business
Dortmund roared back into form with a resounding 4-0 home success over Schalke last weekend. Young striking sensation Erling Haaland opened the scoring for them.
The Norwegian, who has scored 10 goals in just 9 league appearances for Dortmund, makes +130 for a Haaland/Dortmund Score/Win Double a viable selection.
The away record of Borussia Dortmund this season is W6 D3 L4. Going into the enforced break they had won three of their last four on the road. Lucien Favre’s men are second only in the Bundelisga goalscoring charts to leaders Bayern Munich, who they have a four-point gap to make up on.
But their success over Schalke (who started last weekend above Wolfsburg) fired BVB to their fifth straight league success. Dortmund average over 2 goals per away game in this campaign and 85% of their road games have seen at least three goals in them.
Granted, they are facing a tidy Wolfsburg defence, but it’s hard not to back Dortmund for more goals. Over 2.5 goals have happened in 15 of Dortmund's last 17 league games.
Dortmund can’t take their foot off the gas in the title race, certainly not ahead of their huge meeting with Bayern next weekend. There’s massive pressure on them to deliver at Wolfsburg.
Prediction Snapshot
Borussia Dortmund should have enough about them to produce the away win. They have scored exactly double the number of league goals that Wolfsburg have managed this season.
Wolfsburg have done a tremendous job of climbing the table, but seeing them struggle to beat a below-par Augusburg last weekend, doesn’t bode well for them taking on the chasing Dortmund.
Pick: Borussia Dortmund & Over 2.5 Goals +125
Last week in review
The thing that was perhaps least expected about last week's Bundelisga return was the mount of goals flying around. A lack of match sharpness because of the lockdown and playing behind closed doors was predicted to dampen scoring.
Not so. Six of the nine matches played produced at least three goals in them. Just one was goalless, a fixture between bottom-three sides Dusseldorf and Paderborn.
The other notable thing was that there was only one home win last weekend (Dortmund), with five of the nine away teams picking up wins. Those are trends which throw more weight behind Dortmund’s chances at Wolfsburg.