Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 5/21/20

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Windfall Profit Price player ran well while wide the entire way in a return she needed at Tampa off the layoff, should only be tighter here, meets a solid, though unspectacular crew, and seems poised to take a big move forward, in what is a confident circuit switch as well; upset special.
#5 Acts Like Artie Improving Maker charge really stepped up her game last time, when 2nd, beaten just a head, with a big figure (for these), so if she moves forward again, which is entirely possible after just three starts, the rest will have a hard time handling that kind of race; huge chance.
#1 Setting the Mood ML favorite will be bet hard for Pletcher off the close 2nd on debut, and she's another who should build off that encouraging run, from the perfect draw too, but she's also going to be overbet, and is no faster than about a half dozen or so entered here; not sold on her chances.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 4, and it needs to be, as this is a much tougher group than the one she just faced, but there's upside galore here, and the risk-reward will be there, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she may fall through the wagering cracks, which would knock a good percentage of the tickets out right off the bat.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Cassey's Girl MSW dropper was a modest 7th on the dirt in her debut in what was a solid race for the level, as the second-place finisher came back to win, and now she takes the biggest drop in racing for Lynch, who is a stiff 26% with this angle, and note Saez jumps aboard as well; look out.
#7 Fractorzation Expected heavy favorite with Irad is another MSW dropper, and she wins this for fun if she runs back to her lone turf start two-back, but that was in November, and yikes, that dirt run when last seen in December was ugly, and now she returns for a tag too; scary, but no lock.
#1 Twilight Intriguing newcomer ran well in a pair of turf MSW's at Lone Star last year for Asmussen, and while the July layoff is a worry, not to mention she goes to Olivares, who hasn't started a runner all year, he does name a top local jock in Zayas, so there could be some intent; worth a look.
Race Summary You should get a hint of value on the 5, since they will bet the 7 hard, but there seems to be reason to think she's waking up in a big way here, and that this might in fact have been the spot Lynch had in mind all along, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since there's no guarantee the heavy favorite is still in one piece, and the rest of these are no great shakes to begin with, so it's not like the pick will need to freak to make a dent.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Valdocco Stalker just missed when he settled last time and made a run to be 2nd, beaten just a head, and while this group is tougher, it's also loaded with speed, and a potential dicey favorite too, and value abounds here; expecting a huge run.
#3 Star Juancho Aforementioned favorite may indeed be dicey, as he changes trainers and subsequently drops from 50k to 6.25k, but Irad is here, and D'Angelo is 3-for-7 at the meet, so you'll have to take the short price if interested; tread very lightly here.
#5 Making a Mark Longshot invades from FG for Roussel, who won with his firster starter here the other day, and if you're not familiar with him, he's a sharp Midwest trainer that knows the score, and brought a crew here that can compete; do not ignore.
Race Summary That 5-1 ML on the pick makes him very appealing, as not only does he enter off two straight big performances, but the race flow will really suit his running style too, and if the chalk is in fact off-form, then the 1 becomes that much tougher, so play him aggressively to win and place, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he really looks like he's getting all the best of it here, yet won't have to run a whole heck of a lot faster to beat these.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2
Picks Notes
#9 No More Martinis Showed a bit of life when last seen at Penn in December, and he'll need every bit of that sort of effort to score with this softer bunch.
#8 U. S. Millenium Proved that he stacked up well with the local company last time out, and he should get another good go of things near the top.
#1 Burren Rocks Doesn't meet a field of world beaters, even for this level so he won't have to be a star to make an impact at first asking in this soft spot. Rail draw is no bargain.
Race Summary No More Martinis can score here if he's able to run back to something like that last one at Penn, and this easier spot might make the difference.

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Cayenne Creek Might get a decent go behind the splits, as the chalk probably has a little bit of company near the top, so this guy might be able to settle and spy before trying to outkick that one.
#3 Rush to the Castle No doubt he's the one to beat off a couple of pretty easy wins in those last two trips to post, but he's now running off a bit of a break when he was in really good form prior to that. Underlaid number to find out if he holds that form?
#9 Potential Grizzly Tactical type should be able to find a good spot near the top with these, and he brings a bullet work with him to this return run.
Race Summary Cayenne Creek should trip out behind a couple of horses who might be able to hassle the likely favorite, Rush to the Castle. That guy is the most likely winner here, but he seems a bit more vulnerable this time around.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Fiber and Emily Really found some of his best form before the break, and he should be quick enough to keep in touch with the chalk drawn inside of him.
#2 Dr. Feelgood The one to beat with some dangerous early pace, and he's likely to take them as far as he can as fast as he can in hopes of running them off their feet.
#8 Irish Roar Honest type tends to run his race and turned in a really nice score in his first trip over the local footing. Not impossible if the speed comes back.
Race Summary Fiber and Emily is worth a small look to try to beat Dr. Feelgood, as 'Emily can track the speed in the early going and will be a significantly better price than 'Feelgood.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#10 Chasing Cars Sunland invader was 2nd but but disqualified last out, which came against winners; faces maiden claimers for the 1st time and can be strong on the outside.
#7 The Corona Cowboy Stretches out to 550 and distance doesn't seem to be a probably; has been competitive and looks that way again.
#6 Joe Bangles Woke up with a solid 3rd last out going 440; gets a little more distance, which shouldn't hurt.
Race Summary Chasing Cars has been out only twice, stretches out to 550 and a break should put him out front.

Remington Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#9 Lajollas Dirty Harry Drops out of trials and maiden special races into maiden claiming and that should move him up; keeps Flores, which is a good sign.
#10 Phondler Has been close in all three starts and can show good speed from the outside; big player.
#2 Isthechickendun Comes off her best effort, a 3rd vs. maidens; the class drop could make her tough here.
Race Summary Lajollas Dirty Harry has been in some strong races and should find this class drop to his liking.

Remington Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Assured to Be Capo Was in a very tough maiden races in her debut and should score on the class drop.
#2 Peves Iba Dream Girl Another class dropper and can be much closer today; 3rd start can produce good results tonight.
#3 Chicks Tale All Was well played but offered up a 7th-place finish in her debut; likely to improve for this price.
Race Summary Assured to Be Capo ran 5th behind speedy Expressum in her only start and is likely to show a great deal of improvement.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 58

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 U. S. MILLENNIUM 2/1

# 9 NO MORE MARTINIS 6/1

# 7 UNBELIEVABLE STORY 10/1

U. S. MILLENNIUM looks like the bet in here. Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest. Looks decent for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. NO MORE MARTINIS - Last time out, this gelding faced a much tougher field.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 60

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 DYAUB 10/1

# 9 ASSURED TO BE CAPO 3/1

# 2 PEVES IBA DREAM GIRL 5/1

DYAUB has a very good shot to take this race especially at 10/1. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Appears to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept. She should have a strong outing versus this less demanding group. ASSURED TO BE CAPO - She has earned solid figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this group of horses in this race. She has been racing very well lately while recording strong Speed Figures. PEVES IBA DREAM GIRL - Could beat this group given the 56 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in her last outing. Is tough not to look at given the company run in as of late.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:21pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#10 I AM MAGICAL (GB) (ML=7/2)
#1 I'LL DO IT MY WAY (ML=5/1)

I AM MAGICAL (GB) - I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This mount has the highest average class in the entire group. In the last race, finished fifth in the slop at Gulfstream Park. Expect better right here. I'LL DO IT MY WAY - The recent speed rating of 85 is the highest last race rating in the bunch. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on April 2nd at Gulfstream Park. Anything close in this event should get the job done. 57-81-85 are last 3 speed figs. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 LADY FIORELLA (ML=5/2), #15 BEAST OF WILDWOOD (ML=4/1), #5 TRIESTE (BRZ) (ML=9/2),

LADY FIORELLA - Hard to recommend any animal with lessening speed ratings of 76/66/54. Could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. BEAST OF WILDWOOD - This youngster isn't going to beat the veterans today, maybe another time. Finished third in her most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. TRIESTE (BRZ) - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned regularly.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - I AM MAGICAL (GB) - Recording a speed figure of 92, two races back, which is better than today's class rating, this mount is ready to claim her spot in the winner's circle.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#10 I AM MAGICAL (GB) is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
10 with 1 with [2,12,13] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #5 - Post: 2:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 ICE OR FIRE (ML=9/2)
#1 DARKHAWK (ML=5/1)
#5 BILLTOWN BANNER (ML=8/1)

ICE OR FIRE - Bautista has this colt placed in the right event. DARKHAWK - I like to see fast drills. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Is ranked number one in (EPS) earnings per start. A dominant effort right here in this race will add to the lifetime bankroll. The addition of blinks usually means that a trainer wants a pony to show more speed or to keep his attention focused. BILLTOWN BANNER - The way this race sets up this gelding will be in perfect striking position when they turn for home.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 MUSKOKA (ML=3/1), #10 SILVER FURY (ML=7/2), #6 CYBER (ML=8/1),

MUSKOKA - 3/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint event of late. SILVER FURY - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint contest in the last couple of months. Not the best of omens. Difficult to put your dough on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as often as this entrant does. CYBER - He showed not much at all in the last clash. Can't wager on this runner in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint affair lately. This steed ran a mediocre speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 ICE OR FIRE to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

05/21/20, GP, Race 8, 4.21 ET
05/21/20,GP,8,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since April 21 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For$16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 48 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 2 Centsless Drama 8-1 Ortiz. Jr. I David Carlos A. TL 32.45 1.05/$1
097.82 12 My Candy Girl 15-1 Torres C A Abreu Fernando FEC 26.09 1.35/$1
096.95 1 I'll Do It My Way 5-1 Vasquez M A Spatz Ronald B. 24.72 0.87/$1
096.86 15 Beast of Wildwood 4-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Downing William 24.72 0.87/$1
096.07 7 Tide Storm 8-1 Saez L Matz Michael R. 32.45 1.05/$1
095.07 14 Lady Fiorella 5/2 Zayas E J Sano Antonio 32.45 1.05/$1
095.05 6 Just a Bit Sassy 12-1 Jaramillo E Eppler Mary E. 24.72 0.87/$1
095.03 4 Channeled's Angel 20-1 Trejos J Fisher David 26.09 1.35/$1
094.92 5 Trieste (BRZ) 9/2 Berrios H I Sanchez Amador Merei 31.65 1.22/$1
093.89 10 I Am Magical (GB) 7/2 Bravo J Biancone Patrick L. 32.45 1.05/$1
093.60 8 Shikaka 10-1 Prado E S Nagle Sarah 32.45 1.05/$1
092.90 3 Rosa Star 6-1 Reyes L Negrete Javier 32.45 1.05/$1
092.57 13 Lilo's Call 30-1 Vasquez M A Collins Johnny W 31.65 1.22/$1
091.01 9 Toleration 15-1 Juarez N Hunt Donald F. 31.65 1.22/$1
088.69 11 Miss Chloe G 50-1 Arroyo M Ralph Richard 32.45 1.05/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.66, ROI 0.95/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 2 Centsless Drama 8-1 Ortiz. Jr. I David Carlos A. TL 30.49 1.25/$1
098.80 15 Beast of Wildwood 4-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Downing William W 30.49 1.25/$1
096.69 7 Tide Storm 8-1 Saez L Matz Michael R. S 26.28 1.16/$1
096.64 12 My Candy Girl 15-1 Torres C A Abreu Fernando FEC 38.00 1.31/$1
096.60 1 I'll Do It My Way 5-1 Vasquez M A Spatz Ronald B. 38.00 1.31/$1
095.49 4 Channeled's Angel 20-1 Trejos J Fisher David 30.49 1.25/$1
094.78 13 Lilo's Call 30-1 Vasquez M A Collins Johnny 26.28 1.16/$1
094.55 6 Just a Bit Sassy 12-1 Jaramillo E Eppler Mary E. 30.49 1.25/$1
093.41 14 Lady Fiorella 5/2 Zayas E J Sano Antonio 30.49 1.25/$1
093.06 9 Toleration 15-1 Juarez N Hunt Donald F. 26.28 1.16/$1
092.93 10 I Am Magical (GB) 7/2 Bravo J Biancone Patrick L. 30.49 1.25/$1
092.48 8 Shikaka 10-1 Prado E S Nagle Sarah 30.49 1.25/$1
091.94 5 Trieste (BRZ) 9/2 Berrios H I Sanchez Amador Merei 26.28 1.16/$1
091.38 3 Rosa Star 6-1 Reyes L Negrete Javier 30.49 1.25/$1
089.70 11 Miss Chloe G 50-1 Arroyo M Ralph Richard 30.49 1.25/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.75, ROI 1.06/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

05/21/20, CD, Race 1, 1.00 ET
05/21/20,CD,1,4 1/2F [Dirt] 00:50:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $79,000 (includes up to $29,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs. (For Two Year Olds Under International Medication Protocol. Horses Nominated Or Entered To Compete Shall Not Be Eligible To Receive Furosemide Less Than Twenty-four (24) Hours Prior To Post Time For The Race.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 7 Cool Enough 6-1 Gonzalez E Schoenthal Phil JT 36.36 1.43/$1
097.42 4 Tequila Queen 2-1 Gaffalione T Ward Wesley A. 36.36 1.43/$1
096.92 3 Hopeful Princess 6-1 Lanerie C J Hancock John A. W 36.36 1.43/$1
093.81 2 Mad Maddy 3-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 36.36 1.43/$1
093.57 10 Seguro 12-1 Jimenez A Chapman James K. 45.45 2.25/$1
093.42 5 Prettyhappy 15-1 Beschizza A Wohlers Laura 45.45 2.25/$1
092.03 6 Shake It Out West 15-1 Kellenberger K McEntee Paul 45.45 2.25/$1
091.89 12 Double Whopper 30-1 Garcia D G Rangel Arnulfo 45.45 2.25/$1
091.44 8 Longdrinkofwater 15-1 Talamo J Sanner Daniel E. 45.45 2.25/$1
090.41 9 Youawakemysoul 20-1 Cannon D Chapman James K. 45.45 2.25/$1
089.87 1 Summer War 20-1 Gomez A Gorostieta Cirilo 45.45 2.25/$1
089.65 1A Tiz a Bit Lucky 20-1 Kellenberger K Gorostieta Cirilo 45.45 2.25/$1
088.75 11 My Margaret Anne 30-1 Parker D L Campbell Donald H. 45.45 2.25/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.89, ROI 1.01/$1
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/21

Thu May 21, 2020 6:40 am
Good one yesterday as Karma King comes in second and pays $12.20 and $5 to show. We also hit the 8th in Tampa as Zaino Boyz comes in second and 1-6 exacta paid $52.40. Today I have two from Churchill Downs. Goodluck.

Churchill Downs Race 1
#2 Mad Maddy $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-4-3

Churchill Downs Race 8
#1 Addison $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 1-5-6
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