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Free Premium Service Plays For Monday 5/18/20

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 5/18/20

 
Posted : May 18, 2020 9:59 am
(@shazman)
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Southgate Was just favored with better last time out, and this group shouldn't pose a ton of problems for him if he can produce his typical race here.
#1 Centergee Tactical type should get another good trip, but the waters get much deeper this time around on the step up to face winners. Not impossible, but I'd want better than the 6/1 ML price to find out.
#9 Big Game Hunter Does really reliable work on the main track, and that should keep him in the mix with this bunch. His ceiling is high enough to win this if he brings his very best stuff.
Race Summary Southgate should be tough if he's able to bring something similar to his last one with stakes company, and the prices on the other logical players may not be really fair given their realistic chances to win.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Momma's Baby Boy Reliable finisher steps up off a good effort last time out, and he figures to get a pretty good run of things while spying the splits.
#4 Drifting West Makes sense on class and form, but I had a tough time getting beyond how infrequently he passes horses. He should be in the mix early, but things really have to fall his way for him to win this, and the price likely won't reflect that.
#2 Got Mojo Probably needs more pace than he's going to get here, but he occasionally finishes with some energy, and that might be enough to land him a small piece underneath at a big number.
Race Summary Momma's Baby Boy will need his best stuff as he climbs up the class ladder, but he's a reliable type who can settle nicely off the splits and rally when asked. Lots to like.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#9 She's Shiney She doesn't always show up, but she's a real danger to this bunch if she brings her best stuff here. The price figures to be right to find out if she can bring her A-game in a spot where the race shape flatters her.
#2 Seeing Double Price player doesn't seem impossible if an honest pace develops, as she has done some of her best work when a bit outrun early and launching one big rally late.
#6 Keena Versatile type can adapt to however this race unfolds, and she ran a really good one when returning to this barn last time out.
Race Summary She's Shiney might be able to get a good run of things from just off the splits while stretching out, and her best game stacks up really well with these.
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Posted : May 18, 2020 10:00 am
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Temple City Darlin Stalker was a good 2nd to the chalk last time, when the latter got loose and wired, which seems like a tough ask with all the speed today; call to post the mild surprise.
#3 Holiday Clover Aforementioned favorite made it two in a row on the lead last time, and is the best of the speed here, but there's plenty of it on both sides; may come up wanting late.
#5 Quick Sense Impressive last-out winner faces tougher here and is another who may get caught up in the pace, though she did well to draw outside a lot of it; dangerous if she can settle.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should really help the chances of the 4, who didn't get a fair go of it last time, as the 3 walked on the lead, but the circumstances seem a lot different here, so play her to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she looks primed to reverse the decision, especially since 'Clover likely won't get a free pass on the engine today.

Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Zibby Too Expected heavy favorite has been knocking at the door of late, meets a very weak crew, and still has plenty of upside off just five lifetime starts; imposing.
#8 Wildfire Sis Price player really woke up last time when a distant 3rd to the pick, when she showed a lot more speed, which would help her chances here; second-best.
#4 Miss Justice Lifetime maiden was 4th behind the top pair last time, so why she's the ML second-choice is a real guess, and a real reason to play against; underneath only.
Race Summary Swing hard with an aggressive win and place bet on the 2 if you sniff that 2-1 ML, as she looks more like even-money, but the real value comes in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since you can single her, which will allow for more coverage in the deeper surrounding legs, as she looks long gone in this one.

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Banker Nita Rousing MCL winner settled then rolled home to break through in what was her first start here after running at OP, and sure, she steps up today, but the expected aggressive pace really suits her style, as she'll be winding up off the turn; looks good right back.
#7 Gypsy Wind Jeanne Pace presser drew off for a romping MCL win last time, in also what was her local bow after running at OP, so she's a lot like the pick, but she still may get softened up by the inside speed, which will hurt her chances in the lane; scary, but second-best.
#2 Dixie Cat Stiff ML favorite looked good wiring at short odds last time to also break her maiden in her local bow, but the waters are a lot deeper here while facing winners, and the 7 will be pressing her from the outside the entire way; taking a strong stand against on top.
Race Summary We have three recent maiden breakers stepping up, and while there's no doubt the winner should come from among them, it's the pick who is by far the most appealing, since the 2 and 7 seem destined to set it up for her, so make an aggressive win and place bet at 5-2 or better, and get some built-in value as well by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's the one who seems the best situated to handle the rise, since she can sit back and let her two main rivals set it up for her late.
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Posted : May 18, 2020 10:01 am
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Lost Key Held 2nd vs. optional claimers last out and has faced some decent company; has a good late move and can get a good pace setup.
#1 Wacca Wacca Wacca Lost a three-horse photo two back and then threw a clunker last out; 3 of 5 local starts this year have been good.
#5 Alexandrias Throne Lost a heartbreak she came from off the pace and missed by a head; can be rolling late.
Race Summary Lost Key woke up with a solid 2nd last out after facing some stout company on occasion; gets a good pace setup.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Smokin B Ran on well for 3rd and looks ready to stretch for the 1st time since January; high-percentage jockey Manrrique should hep.
#5 Spunky Kitten Buried N2L foes by 10 last time out and has won 2 of 5 here this season; capable of a strong close.
#8 Big Egypt Closed with a rush and won going away last out; can be tough on this step up in conditions.
Race Summary Smokin B has come up empty in sprints and was 2nd the last time he went a mile; can be in the mix from the outset.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Country Club Diner Responded to hot-riding Arrieta with a close 3rd going 4F last out; stretch back out to 6F and can get his 1st win in two years.
#10 Banjo Bill Turns back in distance after weakened in his last two; can finish well vs. these.
#9 Brett's Boy Closed well for 2nd going 6.5F last out and has enough speed to gain a good position early; a player in the exotics.
Race Summary Country Club Diner woke up with a good effort last time and continued improvement can make him a strong player.
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Posted : May 18, 2020 10:01 am
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