Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 5/13/20
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Game Day Drama Stretch out sprinter has solid dirt form, faces a weak crew where the two favorites are turf runners, and should be the controlling speed too; come and catch the pick.
#1 Happy Wanderer ML favorite has some solid turf form but now, after 21 starts, tries the dirt for the first time, which is odd, and say you have to view him with a grain of salt; second-best.
#5 Completely Bonkers The other sharp hoss will get bet hard for potent connections, and would be no surprise, but his two fast dirt runs weren't much, and he'll be an underlay tool tread lightly.
Race Summary There's little doubt the 1 and 5 are the best horses here, but there's also little doubt their form on the dirt is a complete unknown, which is not the case with the pick, who also owns a race flow edge too, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since he'll offer fair value, and may get brave on the stretch.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Stack Shack Stalker tried to get to the turf but it was washed off, yet she ran a fine 3rd in what was her first start at two turns, and now she's on the grass, for a sharp Granitz barn, will be a price, and should trip out too; upset special.
#6 Imaginary Friend Class dropper did well to draw outside of her main speed rival, and the reduced level today will certainly help too, but she's lot ground late in all four starts, which isn't a ringing endorsement, at underlaid odds too; second-best.
#1 Little Miss Broadway The inside speed got to the turf last time and was a much-improved 2nd, missing by just a head, but she did give up a 2-length late lead, and the 12-1 is long gone too, plus the 6 won't give her a free pass; underneath, if at all.
Race Summary The price, race flow, and maybe even surface change could all work for the 5, who looked like a new horse with the added ground and turn last time, and with just three starts she has plenty of upside too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since the two favorites will dominate the betting, which means a win will add plenty of value to both sequences.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Sundrenched Class dropper didn't run an inch on the dirt last time, which was no shock based on her other run earlier in here career, but her turf runs-against much better-are comfortably ahead of these, and she'll get a potential pace tussle that may zap her main rival too; too tough for these.
#9 Classy Lion ML favorite is another who didn't fire on dirt last time, so she'll like getting back to the grass, and she freaked when beating the pick three-back, but that runs seems more the exception than the rule, as the one two-back was weak, and she'll be overbet too; not sold on her chances.
#5 Classy of Course Logical contender has a big chance on paper and can clearly win in this off her recent turf form, should the pick not bring it, but there is speed to both sides of her, which means she may not be at her best in deep stretch if she gets nagged early and often; using underneath, if at all.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 4 but maybe they do send it in on the 9 and you get a better price than you should on the more consistent of the two, and the one that drew a lot better as well, so play her aggressively to win and place if the tote allows, while getting some guarantee value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since the ML favorite will take plenty of play in both sequences too, which means a win by the pick might play a bit larger than her mutuel price might suggest.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#12 Polarcents The two-back run wasn't all bad, and if she's able to get back to something like that, she's probably in the mix at a square price.
#9 Lady Fatma Looks ready to roll at first asking with some solid Keeneland works to her credit. Doesn't meet a whole lot here in the debut.
#1 Hallies Dream Would probably be the top choice if she hadn't drawn the fence, as her early speed coupled with the rail draw might lead to a tricky trip. Not out of it.
Race Summary Polarcents gets the call off a dull run with better last time out, and this group might be a bit more to her liking.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#9 Lawton Loved his last when motoring past late at nearly 7/2, and he should draft into another really nice spot from this high draw.
#7 Minister of Soul Forward player will just need to hold form in order to be a player with these after a really good effort last out. That said, the guy who beat him that day was no match for Lawton last out.
#6 Town Champ Can he hold his form off the claim away from Asmussen? That's the only real question for this guy who brings a series of really sharp efforts into this.
Race Summary Lawton just handled a pretty good group with ease, and if he's able to repeat that kind of effort, he can get the best of Minister of Soul.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Lil Footnotes Slight edge in a very tough race, but she can bounce back off the flat run last time out and should get a good tracking trip.
#2 Shesomajestic Faded badly when last seen, and she has been away a couple months since then, so I wouldn't want too short a number to see if she's getting back to some of her best work from 2019.
#5 Girls a Bullet Finisher has been a bit short when failing to seriously threaten a winner in recent tries, but she chased a tough customer last out and seems in the mix with something similar.
Race Summary Lil Footnotes looks the part if she's able to get past a dull run last out. The price should be right, and her two-back run keeps her in the mix here.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Picadilly Roadster Improved to 3rd last out, draws the rails again and can make a late run vs. these.
#2 Como Se Llama Prompted fast fractions and held 3rd last out; has a good chance to set the pace and looks like a gate-to-wire threat.
#6 Williston Dude Took the lead and was caught in the final strides last out; a similar effort will make him troublesome here.
Race Summary Picadilly Roadster can get a ground-saving trip just off the pace and can finish the best in this group.
Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 Ryrysweetie Was 3rd in her last two and gets a decent pace to target; has been with good company and can make a late run.
#1 Chance of Frost Won her last two of 2019 and the Martinez-Martinez combo is 6 of their last 12.
#5 Innocent Storm Was 2nd in her last four and has two wins and eight seconds in her last 10; fits with these.
Race Summary Ryrysweetie will track a good pace and Arrieta should have her move well in the final quarter.
Fonner Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 Moonfield Goes after her 3rd straight win and can adjust to the pace; Olesiak is perfect in two tries aboard this one.
#6 Charmin Dixie Makes her 1st local start after winning two of her last three at Delta; does well at the mile distance.
#7 Fianna Hills Does well when she gets on the front end and has a good chance to set the pace; won three of the last four times she tried the mile distance, once at Fonner and twice at Prairie Meadows.
Race Summary Moonfield is in top form and go with the flow, whether she's on the front end or from just off the pace.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10300 Class Rating: 80
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 8 CREDIT CYCLE 9/2
# 1 WILL RUNAWAY 6/1
# 4 WELD 8/1
I have to consider CREDIT CYCLE here. Raymond has shown excellent profits (+32 ROI ) at this distance/surface. He must be carefully examined given the strong speed numbers. Has been constatntly running well recently. WILL RUNAWAY - Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. WELD - Has competitive early lick and should fare quite well versus this field.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Fonner Park - Race #8 - Post: 7:09pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,500 Class Rating: 57
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#8 KURIOUS KENNEDY (ML=6/1)
#4 S C ANGEL (ML=5/2)
#3 SCOTIA QUEEN (ML=5/1)
KURIOUS KENNEDY - When Wood and Mitchell unite on horses the return on investment has been wonderful at +132. This mare notched a strong speed fig of 57 in her last clash. That rating should be strong enough to win this time. S C ANGEL - This thoroughbred coming off a nice race in the last month or so is a contender in my opinion. Starting from the inside, this mount should have a distinct edge. Her early-pace setting style should serve her well in this short race of 6 furlongs. The 57 last race speed rating looks sound in black and white. SCOTIA QUEEN - Like the way this filly's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. This filly is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on Apr 28th, finishing first. That was a strong win last time out. In my opinion has a good chance to repeat today. You have to always check out this type of speedball with an inside post in a sprint on a bullring.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 EBONY NIGHTS (ML=4/1), #2 ALICIA'SVALENTINE (ML=8/1), #7 ONE LITTLE INDY (ML=8/1),
EBONY NIGHTS - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falters most every time. Don't feel this steed will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure. ALICIA'SVALENTINE - No favorable outcomes for this pony in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a tough circumstance This filly won last time, but probably won't flaunt it today versus tougher competition. Finished first in her most recent effort with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. ONE LITTLE INDY - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KURIOUS KENNEDY - The odds should be right to wager on this magnificent animal. There are some 'hidden' pluses in the last race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 KURIOUS KENNEDY is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8] Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,4,8] with [3,4,8] with [1,3,4,8,10] with [1,3,4,8,10] Total Cost: $36
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23760 Class Rating: 70
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 12 JUSTINS OMEN 10/1
# 8 NOVEMBER MIKE 7/2
# 6 DRAMACIDE 3/1
JUSTINS OMEN looks to be a formidable contender and could score at a price in here. Ran a solid last race. NOVEMBER MIKE - Has garnered solid Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. The Equibase Speed Figure of 68 from his most recent affair looks competitive in here. DRAMACIDE - Could beat this group of animals given the 79 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 54 speed rating which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE
05/13/20, TAM, Race 8, 4.30 ET
05/13/20,TAM,8,7F [Dirt] 1:20:04 CLAIMING. Purse $10,300. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 13 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races where entered for $6,250 or less not considered in allowances) (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 9 Bueno Bueno Bueno 7/2 Allen. Jr. R D Wilkes Ian R. SE 59.46 1.77/$1
098.76 11 Zechariah 10-1 Wales G Sweezey J. Kent 59.46 1.77/$1
098.64 7 Fortlite 8-1 Suarez A Stidham Michael JT 59.46 1.77/$1
098.53 1 Will Runaway 6-1 Villa-Gomez H Raines Lindsey Marie 36.93 1.06/$1
098.30 4 Weld 8-1 Hernandez H Wilson Tony L 59.46 1.77/$1
097.81 10 Rosas Way 5-1 Spieth S Minieri Joseph 59.46 1.77/$1
097.70 12 Big Yes 8-1 Santos A Woodard Walter H. 59.46 1.77/$1
097.12 14 I'll Make U Famous 15-1 Almeida M Heinen Miles H. 59.46 1.77/$1
096.74 8 Credit Cycle 9/2 Marin A A Raymond Robert A. F 59.46 1.77/$1
096.37 2 Striking Heir 10-1 Mejia T B Hinsley David H. 59.46 1.77/$1
095.39 13 Water Patrol 6-1 Garcia W A Padilla Tim P. C 59.46 1.77/$1
095.15 3 Debdurite 30-1 Herrera J R Machado Antonio 59.46 1.77/$1
092.53 6 Forecaster 30-1 Alencar W Ferraro M. Anthony W 59.46 1.77/$1
091.77 5 Attack Zone 20-1 Allen M Fennessy John 59.46 1.77/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1
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