Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 5/13/20
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira
Anthony Smith (31-years-old)
UFC Record (7-2)
Last Fight - submission win over Alexander Gustafsson (June 1, 2019)
Only one of his past nine professional fights have gone the distance
Five of his past seven professional victories have come via KO/TKO
He hasn't won by unanimous decision in 10 fights dating back to Feb. 21, 2016
Owns a 47.77 significant strike accuracy percentage with 3.06 significant strikes landed per minute
Glover Teixeira (40-years-old)
UFC Record (13-5)
Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019, a split-decision win vs. Nikita Krylov (UFC on ESPN+ 16)
Enters 3-0 across past three bouts with two submission victories
Hasn't won four straight fights at the UFC level since opening 5-0 from May 26, 2012 to Sept. 4, 2013
Has eight career wins via submission, and he has never lost in that fashion
Heavyweight Bout
Ben Rothwell vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Ben Rothwell (38-years-old)
UFC Record (7-5)
Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019, a KO/TKO over Stefan Struve (Round 2, 4:57 - Dec. 7, 2019)
1-3 across past four bouts, including three straight unanimous decisions losses from April 10, 2016 to July 20, 2019
Each of his past six wins at the UFC level have come via submission (two) or KO/TKO (four)
Rothwell is 0-4 in each of the past four instances the fight has been decided on points
Ovince Saint Preux (37-years-old)
UFC Record (12-8)
Last Fight - Sept. 28, 2019, a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk (Round 2, 2:46)
Four of his past five fights have been decided via submission (2-2)
Only one of his previous eight UFC bouts have ended up going the distance
5-6 across his past 11 UFC fights
Owns a 1.34 takedown average and 40.35 takedown accuracy percentage
Lightweight Bout
Alexander Hernandez vs. Drew Dober
Alexander Hernandez (27-years-old)
UFC Record (3-1)
Last Fight - July 20, 2019, a unanimous decision win over Francisco Trinaldo
Each of his past two victories have come via unanimous decision
In 13 career professional fights he has never lost via submission
Seven of his 13 career professional bouts have finished inside the distance
Only two of his 13 fights have ended in submission (2-0), with none at UFC level
Drew Dober (31-years-old)
UFC Record (8-4-1)
Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020, a KO/TKO win (Round 1, 1:10) vs. Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 246
5-1 across past six UFC bouts with three wins via KO/TKO
Only two of his past eight UFC fights have gone the distance (2-0)
Hasn't lost a decision in 12 consecutive contests since his UFC debut May 31, 2014 vs. Nick Hein
Has been submitted three times across his past 10 UFC bouts
Bantamweight Bout
Ricky Simon vs. Ray Borg
Ricky Simon (27-years-old)
UFC Record (3-2)
Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019, a unanimous decision loss vs. Rob Font
0-2 across past two bouts after opening 3-0 at the UFC level
Has never been submitted in 18 career professional fights
Three of his past four fights have went the distance
None of his previous eight bouts have been won or lost by submission
Ray Borg (26-years-old)
UFC Record (7-4)
Last Fight - Feb. 15, 2020, a unanimous decision win vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Each of his past three bouts, and seven of the past eight, have went the distance
None of his 11 fights at the UFC level have been decided, win or lose, by KO/TKO
He hasn't won by submission in eight straight UFC bouts dating back to Feb. 14, 2015
Middleweight Bout
Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori
Karl Roberson (29-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2)
Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 21), a submission win vs. Roman Kopylov
Four of his six UFC bouts have finished inside the distance, each via submission (2-2)
2-0 in two UFC bouts going the distance, and 3-0 in his professional career in decisions
Only two of his 11 professional bouts have resulted in a KO/TKO (2-0)
Marvin Vettori (26-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2-1)
Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019, a unanimous decision win vs. Andrew Sanchez
3-1-1 past five bouts with three UD victories
Each of his past six fights have gone the distance (3-2-1)
Only two of his 19 professional fights have been decided by KO/TKO (2-0)
His last fight to finish inside the distance was his UFC debut on Aug. 20, 2016, a submission win vs. Alberto Uda
UFC on ESPN+: Smith vs. Teixeira Prelims
Heavyweight Bout
Andrei Arlovski vs. Philipe Lins
Andrei Arlovski (41-years-old)
UFC Record (7-9-1)
Last Fight - Nov. 2, 2019 (KO/TKO loss vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, UFC 246)
1-4-1 across past six bouts, with only win coming vs. Ben Rothwell July 20, 2019
3-9-1 across his past 13 UFC fights, with no wins inside distance since May 23, 2015
Four of his past 13 bouts have ended in KO/TKO, all losses
Hasn't recorded a submission victory in 38 straight professional bouts
Philipe Lins (34-years-old)
UFC Record (0-0)
Will be making his UFC debut
Last Fight - Dec. 31, 2018, a TKO win over Josh Copeland at PFL 11: The Championship
4-0 across his past four professional bouts with three wins via TKO
Each of his past 11 professional fights have finished inside the distance
Lightweight Bout
Michael Johnson vs. Thiago Moises
Michael Johnson (33-years-old)
UFC Record (11-9)
Last Fight - Oct. 26, 2019, a majority decision loss vs. Stevie Ray
2-5 across past seven professional bouts
Past two victories have each went the distance
Three of his past four bouts, and seven of his past 12, have ended up being decided by the judges
Has never won by submission at the UFC level, going 0-4
Thiago Moises (25-years-old)
UFC Record (1-2)
Last Fight - Aug. 31, 2019, a unanimous decision loss vs. Damir Ismagulov
1-2 across past three UFC bouts since his debut Nov. 10, 2018
Five of his past seven professional fights have gone the distance (2-3)
Has never lost via submission in 16 professional fights (5-0)
Women’s Bantamweight
Sijara Eubanks vs. Sarah Moras
Sijara Eubanks (35-years-old)
UFC Record (2-2)
Last Fight - Sept. 21, 2019, a unanimous decision loss vs. Bethe Correia (UFC on ESPN+ 17)
Each of her past six professional bouts have gone the distance (3-3)
None of her nine career fights have ended in submission
Has never been knocked out in nine career fights, winning two bouts by KO/TKO
Sarah Moras (32-years-old)
UFC Record (3-3)
Last Fight - Sept. 7, 2019 (KO/TKO win vs. Liana Jojua, UFC 242)
1-3 across past four bouts, with two of four fights going the distance (0-2)
Has just one career loss via submission in 12 career bouts (2-1)
Each of her past three fights going the distance have resulted in unanimous decision losses
Lightweight Bout
Gabriel Benitez vs. Omar Morales
Gabriel Benitez (31-years-old)
UFC Record (5-3)
Last Fight - Aug. 17, 2019, a KO/TKO loss to Sodiq Yusuff (Round 1, 4:14 at UFC 241)
Hasn't lost by submission in 11 consecutive professional bouts (2-0)
Four of his previous six fights have finished inside the distance
Three of his past six bouts have ended in KO/TKO (1-2)
Hasn't lost two straight fights as a professional since March 2-Aug. 10, 2013
Omar Morales (34-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Dec. 21, 2019, his UFC debut in a unanimous decision win over Dong Hyun Ma
Only two of his nine professional fights have ended up going the distance
He has recorded five submission wins in his nine career fights
Six of his nine career appearances have ended in Round 1
Featherweight Bout
Hunter Azure vs. Brian Kelleher
Hunter Azure (28-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)
Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019, his UFC debut in a unanimous decision win over Brad Katona
8-0 in eight career professional fights, with three wins by KO/TKO, one by submission and four by unanimous decision
Each of his past three fights have went the distance
Brian Kelleher (33-years-old)
UFC Record (3-3)
Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020, a submission win over Ode' Osbourne at UFC 246
Each of his past three bouts, and eight of his past nine professional fights have finished inside the distance
Hasn't lost by decision in 16 consecutive professional fights dating back to Sept. 21, 2013 at CFFC 27 vs. Scott Heckman
Heavyweight Bout
Chase Sherman vs. Isaac Villanueva
Chase Sherman (30-years-old)
UFC Record (2-5)
Last Fight - Sept. 22, 2018, a KO/TKO loss to Augusto Sakai
0-3 across past three fights, including pair of KO/TKO losses
None of his 17 career professional bouts have ended via submission win or loss
Only three of his 17 career fights have ended up going the distance
Isaac Villanueva (36-years-old)
UFC Record (0-0)
Will be making his UFC debut
Last fight on Dec. 13, 2019, a KO/TKO win over Rashad Coulter (Round 1, 3:17 - Fury FC 40: Fury Fighting Championship)
Each of his past four fights have resulted in Round 1 KO/TKO victories
Has never won by submission in 25 career bouts (0-5)
Three of his past eight professional fights have gone the distance, but 21 of his 25 fights have finished inside the distance
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Betting Odds, Analysis & Predictions
May 12, 2020
By Brian Edwards
Betting Odds & Best Bets
Date: Wednesday, May 13 2020
Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 6:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night Trends | UFC Expert Picks
UFC Fight Night Betting Odds
Anthony Smith -180 Glover Teixeira +150
Ovince Saint Preux -140 Ben Rothwell +120
Drew Dober -115 Alexander Hernandez -105
Ricky Simon -165 Ray Borg +145
Marvin Vettori -180 Karl Roberson +160
Philipe Lins -160 Andrei Arlovski +140
Thiago Moises -110 Michael Johnson -110
Sijara Eubanks-380 Sarah Moras +320
Omar Morales -160 Gabriel Benitez +140
Hunter Azure -170 Brian Kelleher +150
Chase Sherman -150 Ike Villanueva +130
Subject to Change - Updates With the global pandemic sidelining live sports for nearly two months, UFC 249 took center stage on ESPN this past Saturday night. From the lid-lifter between light heavyweight Ryan Spann and Smilin’ Sam Alvey to the main event pitting Justin Gaethje against Tony Ferguson, the 11-fight card delivered and then some.
There were three split decisions and I scored Anthony Pettis’s unanimous-decision win over Donald Cerrone in favor of ‘Cowboy.’ We had breakout performances from Bryce Mitchell and Justin Gaethje, a surprising retirement announcement (or contract negotiation ploy?) from Henry Cejudo after another stellar performance, an upset win by 42-year-old Aleksei Olynek and another less-than-30-seconds beatdown from Francis Ngannou.
UFC Fight Night: Betting Analysis
Now the promotion gets more time in the spotlight with Wednesday’s UFC Jacksonville show that’ll get cranking at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. The headliner features fourth-ranked light-heavyweight contender Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith vs. eighth-ranked Glover Teixeira.
Smith (33-14 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is coming back from surgery after he sustained a broken hand in last summer’s fourth-round submission win over Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson as a road underdog in last summer’s UFC Stockholm main event. Teixeira is looking for his fourth straight win at the age of 40 after going 3-0 in 2019.
In the co-main event, Ovince Saint Preux will make his heavyweight debut against ‘Big’ Ben Rothwell.
Twenty-one of 22 fighters made weight at Tuesday morning’s weigh-ins. Karl Roberson was the exception (187.5), as he missed weight by 1.5 pounds for his middleweight clash against Marvin Vettori.
Let’s get to some picks…
UFC Fight Night: Best Bets
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ben Rothwell
-- I like Rothwell as a +124 underdog vs. OSP for three units in my favorite play on the card. Saint Preux weighed in at 240.5 pounds, while Rothwell came in at 265. The 38-year-old Rothwell (37-12 MMA, 7-6 UFC) is off a second-round knockout win over Stefan Struve. He packs as much power as anyone on the division not named Ngannou, displaying it in KO wins over the likes of Struve, Alistair Overeem, Brandon Vera andBrendan Schaub.
The Wisconsin native also has six career submission wins, including a pair in the Octagon against Matt Mitrione and former heavyweight champ Josh Barnett. OSP has been knocked out in a pair of LHW scraps and been submitted three times. It says here that he’s never felt hands as powerful as Rothwell’s, and we’ll also go with one-half unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds at a -134 price.
Thiago Moises vs. Michael Johnson
-- I like Michael ‘The Menace’ Johnson (19-15 MMA, 11-11 UFC) in a pick ‘em showdown (-108 either way at FanDuel) vs. Thiago Moses for 1.5 units. Johnson’s resume on paper shows back-to-back losses and a 3-7 slump in his last 10 fights. However, the reality is that he’s been in good form lately. In 2018, he posted back-to-back victories over Andre Fili and Artem Lobov.
Less than a minute away from a three-fight winning streak in what had been a dominant performance for 14 minutes, Johnson got caught by powerful featherweight Josh Emmett with a one-punch KO when he was 46 seconds away from a lopsided decision win. Then he dropped a majority decision to Stevie Ray this past October. Johnson has elite wins on his resume like the ones he captured over Edson Barboza, Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. Moses is getting entirely too much respect from the oddsmakers in this spot.
Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva
-- Let’s go with two units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for a +114 return (FanDuel) in the card’s opener between Chase Sherman and Isaac Villanueva. Sherman was cut in 2018 after going 2-5 in seven Octagon appearances, but he got the call back up after posting three consecutive wins by first-round KO under the Island Fights regional promotion in the Pensacola area. Fourteen of the ‘Vanilla Gorilla’s 20 career fights have ended in the opening stanza. Villaneuva, who is making his UFC debut here, has won four consecutive bouts by first-round finish.
--The straight price (-180 at FanDuel) on Smith is too expensive for me, but I do think he gets it done and encourage bettors to put him in whatever parlay you might’ve working.