Tuesday 3/17/20 horse racing handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Fonner Park & Will Rogers Downs
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 My Little Charlie MSW dropper really improved in her local bow, and first for Gonzalez, which is no surprise, and now, at this reduced level, she looks poised to break through; imposing.
#3 Nola's Sugarplum Price player is another who woke up last time, on the drop to the level, and while she'll have trouble reaching the pick, there's no one else here to fear; can spice it up.
#2 Charming Diva The more fancied EX partner is another who exits an MSW, but she was a distant 2nd, as she was at the level two-back, and she may get pressed too; comes unglued late.
Race Summary That 5-2 ML would be a gift on the 6, as she looks more like 7-5 in here, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you can get some built-in value by singling her to kick off the early Pk5, since that's not a move the betting public likes to use in the opening leg of a horizontal sequence, which means you can use the chalk to your advantage, as it looks like name the score time today.
Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Fearless Kitty Price player didn't fire on the trainer change to Black last time, so there's a good chance he's simply off-form, but note top local jock Olesiak sticks, which is intriguing, there's some back form here, and he should be sitting off two dueling leaders; upset special.
#6 Where's Rufus ML favorite was a fine 3rd at the level last time and did well to draw outside his main rival and the other speed, but he's going to have to work hard every step of the way, while likely dueling throughout, which might leave him vulnerable in the lane; second-best.
#5 Friend of Dubai Class riser and the inside speed looked good walloping N2L foes last time but the waters get a lot deeper here, and he'll have to do all the dirty work with the chalk pressing him the entire way, so lasting to the line seems like a big ask; making him prove it.
Race Summary The price, pace, and connections all make the 1 worth the risk-reward here, as there's no doubt he's looking way up at the two favorites, but there are reasons to think he could make a dent in the gap today, so give him a look in all the slots, and the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would go a long way in completely blowing both sequences up.
Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Luckynsuccesssful Layoff runner hasn't been out since September when facing better at Cby but has worked very well for this, has a stalking gear in a race loaded with speed, and may get overlooked on the toteboard as well; thinking he's live.
#7 Lovethatcause The horse to beat did well to draw outside a lot of the other speed and you know he'll be a handful off those two straight romps, but he's not going to get things as easy today, which may spell trouble late; scary, but no lock.
#9 Mallory's Benefit Stalker was well behind the chalk in 4th last time, so making up almost 8 lengths seems like a reach, but, like the pick, the race flow will be to his liking too, so he figures to come along late for a share; eligible to pass some in the lane.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the pick, especially since he could be the one to take advantage of a race that might fall apart late, so play him in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's getting all the best of it here, yet could fall through the wagering cracks in his return.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Sassy Seta Should be a handful here after a couple of really good efforts at Oaklawn in some of those recent starts. If she holds the form today, she's tough.
#3 Joy in the Journey Another one who has been in with groups that might have been a bit better than this one, and she can get a pretty good run of thing near the top.
#8 Quiet Spring Has some tactical ability that might lead to a decent tracking trip today, but I mostly prefer her underneath in this spot.
Race Summary Sassy Seta has enough pace to be in the mix early on with these, and something like a repeat of her last quite likely leaves the rest running for second.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Sigicricket No idea if this one will fire out of the box today, but there are a couple of forward-looking works on the tab, and on paper there's really only a couple of horses to worry about it seems.
#11 Okie Logic Most likely winner ran a big one in the local debut last out, and she'll be able to flash her speed again from this draw.
#8 Ragan's Jet Decent debut run can have her set up for something better this time around, but the price will shorten significantly after the 17/1 debut effort.
Race Summary Sigicricket might be ready to roll in a race where Okie Logic probably hits hard, but will also take plenty of cash.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Love to Learn Her tactical pace should allow her to find a great spot early on here, and though the waters are deeper on the hike, I'll happily take an in-form horse stepping up like this at a price any day.
#12 Always Inthe Munny Has been in with better groups in those last two starts, but she'll need to work out a trip at this 5.5f run from the wide draw.
#6 Sweet Carolina Looks like the one to beat on the move into the Hartman barn, and if her Sunland races transfer over locally, she's going to hit hard here.
Race Summary Love to Learn is worth a look in a spot where there are logical alternatives who will take cash. She has dropped nine lengths total on two softer fields in a pair of easy wins, and the hope is she'll hold that form with better. Would be happy with something near the 8/1 ML price.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#4 Mingo Born Was 3rd in a similar spot in his 1st of the year; comes off his best lifetime start and can get to the winner's circle.
#6 Eastside Boy Rallied for 4th in his 2nd one at Fonner after campaigning at Fair Grounds; fits with these.
#7 Banana Pepper Was an easy maiden winner in his 1st here and a similar effort will make him tough in this spot.
Race Summary Mingo Born's 1st effort of the year was much better than anything he had last year and continued improvement can get him the victory.
Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Vagary Was in outstanding form at Delta Downs and trainer Gonzalez is hitting at 22 percent locally; gets jockey Olesiak, who has had 10-percent success.
#4 Saygoodnightgracie Held 2nd in the Pepsi Stakes last out and was an easy allwoance winner two back; drops in class and will be a player on the front end.
#8 Ranbir Just missed after setting the pace last out; makes her 7th start of the season and seeks her 1st win since August.
Race Summary Vagary has performed well vs. better company and can wear down the frontrunner here.
Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Ameripoint Rallied well for 3rd two back and gets rider Martinez, who has done well at 23 percent; Lemburg barn hitting at 16 percent and the jockey-trainer combo is two of their last three.
#3 Masterpiece Day Was a clear winner last out and make a closing move vs. these; serious threat to repeat.
#8 Songster Faltered in his 1st of the year and likely will show some improvement here; late threat.
Race Summary Ameripoint fizzled last time but was 3rd vs. similar two back; expect a return to good form.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Fonner Park - Race #7 - Post: 6:42pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,700 Class Rating: 73
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#3 MASTERPIECE DAY (ML=4/1)
#2 AMERIPOINT (ML=6/1)
MASTERPIECE DAY - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Bethke and Coughlin partnered with one another are a railbird's friend. This thoroughbred coming off a solid contest in the last month is a win candidate in my opinion. This gelding's last speed rating is high enough to score here, I'll wager on him right back today. AMERIPOINT - It looks like the race should set up for a late runner. This gelding's running style fits the bill nicely. This rider and trainer have a favorable return on investment when they join forces.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STARLING (ML=5/2), #5 NATTYTYME (ML=3/1), #8 SONGSTER (ML=8/1),
STARLING - This steed just hasn't been winning as the public's top choice. Recorded a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on April 20th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. NATTYTYME - In the last race this horse finished eighth. Doesn't show much potential for his chances this time out. SONGSTER - Just cannot wager on any racer right back after he doesn't finish in the money after any long layoff.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 MASTERPIECE DAY is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Fonner Park - Race #7 - Post: 6:42pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,700 Class Rating: 73
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#3 MASTERPIECE DAY (ML=4/1)
#2 AMERIPOINT (ML=6/1)
MASTERPIECE DAY - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Bethke and Coughlin partnered with one another are a railbird's friend. This thoroughbred coming off a solid contest in the last month is a win candidate in my opinion. This gelding's last speed rating is high enough to score here, I'll wager on him right back today. AMERIPOINT - It looks like the race should set up for a late runner. This gelding's running style fits the bill nicely. This rider and trainer have a favorable return on investment when they join forces.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STARLING (ML=5/2), #5 NATTYTYME (ML=3/1), #8 SONGSTER (ML=8/1),
STARLING - This steed just hasn't been winning as the public's top choice. Recorded a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on April 20th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. NATTYTYME - In the last race this horse finished eighth. Doesn't show much potential for his chances this time out. SONGSTER - Just cannot wager on any racer right back after he doesn't finish in the money after any long layoff.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 MASTERPIECE DAY is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4700 Class Rating: 73
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR NEBRASKA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 MASTERPIECE DAY 4/1
# 9 STARLING 5/2
# 2 AMERIPOINT 6/1
I give my vote to MASTERPIECE DAY here. Looks very good to be up near the front end at the first call. With a formidable 70 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this outing. Win percentage with this jock and handler combo - 18 percent - solid. STARLING - Has very good early lick and will most likely fare very well versus this field. Recorded a sound Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. AMERIPOINT - Has recorded strong Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races in the past. Some formidable figs have been posted by this trainer's horses racing at this distance and surface.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Will Rogers Downs - Race #1 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,580 Class Rating: 59
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#4 GOLD NOTE (ML=3/1)
GOLD NOTE - Last out, this one was in a race at Will Rogers Downs in a race with an Equibase class figure of 64. Dropping considerably in class figure today puts him in a solid position today. Believe in this horse. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a terrific spot to bury them in the stretch. This gelding's last speed fig garnered on Apr 28th is utmost in last race speed figures.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 JOHNNY LONGBOAT (ML=7/2), #8 I'M A STAR (ML=4/1), #6 CROWNED LEADER (ML=9/2),
JOHNNY LONGBOAT - Hard to invest in any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot. I'M A STAR - Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time around the track at Will Rogers Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this steed will improve too much in today's race. CROWNED LEADER - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two outings. The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GOLD NOTE - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This beautiful animal looks good to me so I'm making a wager on him.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 GOLD NOTE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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