Free Premium Service Plays For Monday 5/11/20

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10450 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2019-2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 MULBERRY 5/2

# 4 KARATE HOTTIE 2/1

# 6 MISS PERFECTA 6/1

MULBERRY looks very good to best this field. Has raced well in dirt route races. Looks very strong to be on or close to the lead at the first call. With a formidable 93 speed rating last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. KARATE HOTTIE - She has been running strongly lately while recording very solid speed figures. Difficult to pass on this filly with Cabrera in the saddle. MISS PERFECTA - Should finish in the money without any problem.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6400 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 WITTS DATA LINK 2/1

# 5 TICKER 6/1

# 4 GOODNESS CAT 7/2

I give the nod to WITTS DATA LINK here. Has to be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. TICKER - Looks solid to be close to the lead at the first call. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a contender. GOODNESS CAT - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. With one of the strongest jockeys in terms of gains at the window, don't count this filly out.
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/11

Mon May 11, 2020 8:15 am
Nice one yesterday as Fortune Cookie wins and pays $8.60, $4.40 and $3.40 across the board and we hit the 6-7 exacta and it paid $36.80. Today I have two races from Will Rogers. Stay Safe.

Will Rogers Race 3
#4 Valiant Appeal $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-7-2

Will Rogers Race 6
#2 He's No Saint $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-6-10
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,150 Class Rating: 56

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 WINNING BELLS (ML=4/1)
#5 FOOLISH PRINCESS (ML=9/2)
#9 EXPANSIONIST (ML=7/2)

WINNING BELLS - Bermudez is up for another affair today after sitting atop this horse for the first ride on May 4th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. I like this filly. Has the highest (EPS) earnings per start in here. FOOLISH PRINCESS - Really think this race horse is going to be on the money at the wire. EXPANSIONIST - Moquett drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to figure that this animal has a shot at this level. A wise man taught me to invest in the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. This filly should improve after adding Lasix in the last race and getting it again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ELSIE'S FIRST (ML=3/1), #8 NANABANANA (ML=8/1), #6 KARMA REIGNS (ML=8/1),

ELSIE'S FIRST - Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this entrant. Hasn't been close to winning at all recently. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list. NANABANANA - Will probably be stranded with much too much to do in the lane. Quite unimpressive speed fig last time out at Will Rogers Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much today. KARMA REIGNS - Can't bet on this steed in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint contest of late. Showed very little in the last event. Really don't expect a reversal of fortune today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #7 WINNING BELLS on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Dixie Cat OP invader has been facing better in the big leagues and now takes a big drop in class (even though she was facing Arkansas breds), lures local ace Olesniak, goes into a sharp Anderson barn (29% with newcomers), and, as important as anything, sure doesn't meet much; too good for these.
#1 Behold de Dancer Class dropper hasn't been seen since facing winners at ArP in August, so the layoff is a concern, but Mitchell is 13% off this elongated break, the rail won't hurt, and the price will be fair too, so if she can get back to her maiden form over the summer, she'll have a big chance; hardly impossible.
#4 Mz Jackie Fellow layoff runner was against state breds at Canterbury in Minnesota and came out of a few fast races for the level, though new trainer Gawarecki is 0-for-8 on the season, which tempers the enthusiasm quite a bit, though that 4/20 bullet helps ease the concern; figures in the mix for a share.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 5, but that 5-2 ML seems like a steal when viewed in light of the alternatives, and with the top jock on the grounds here there's clearly intent too, so make an aggressive win and place bet, though you can get some added value by singling him to kick off the early Pk5, as that's a move the betting public doesn't like to endorse, even when their is an imposing favorite to kick off a sequence.

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Magnanimus Man Versatile sort was up in time last month, and showed he can settle and pounce, which will come in handy with a pair of outside speedsters here, and the price figures to be solid too, so with a lot of positives, especially his running style, he may handle the rise; call to post the mild surprise.
#1 Buster Brown Boy Stretch runner has been doing the Tapeta thing of late but was also facing much better when last on the dirt at CD, now starts for Martinez, the best barn here, and will be a handful, but a short price, and the fact he'll spot first run to the pick, make him second-best; trying to beat on top.
#3 American League Stalker cut back and found his form again, while just missing against a good group of 7.5k claimers, so this group isn't a lot tougher, and now, off that tightener sprinting, he should be that much tougher, and is another who will get the jump on the favorite too; figures firmly for a big share.
Race Summary The price should be fair on the pick, and while that 6-1 ML seems a bit ambitious, 7-2 or so still seems fair on a runner who is in form and brings figures that will play with these, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since the favorites are no locks here, and taking class risers in situations like this can often be a positive angle.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Renvyle Class dropper was in too tough against starter-allowance foes last time, so the drop makes sense, and he won at the level two-back, plus his closing style won't be hurt by the wide draw; mows them all down in the lane.
#2 Witt'sdollarnight Major player has a big tactical edge on the pick, drew perfectly too, and just-missed at the level last time, but the waters are deeper here, and he'll be overbet, so while he can win, he'll have to run better today; still, plenty scary.
#1 Medieval Medicine The best of the rest was 3rd, some 6 lengths behind 2 last time, so not only is he looking way up at him, but he has the pick to deal with as well, which isn't an ideal set of circumstance to post a win; using underneath, if at all.
Race Summary That 9-2 ML might well be 2-1 at post time, but with the 2 entered he'll take some of the tote pressure off, so if you see 5-2 or better make an aggressive win and place bet, though you can really guarantee some value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's back with friends here, should get some pace to rally into, and needs only to reproduce the effort two-back to run past them all once again.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Valiant Appeal Probably won't be a really great price, but he has some tactical ability and has been in the mix at this level in recent starts.
#1 Ray's Angel Bit of intrigue here with his ability to sit just a bit off the speed and finish. He might get a decent run of things inside behind the speed.
#5 Young Hendrick Speed player steps up for Broberg, but he probably needs a bit better than he has been showing in recent starts to handle this tougher bunch
Race Summary Valiant Appeal should be tough here as he brings in reliable form from the level. He should get a good run near the top and looks like the one to beat. I'll try to get Ray's Angel in the frame to make this race pay.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Silver Moon Rising Price player has a much tougher test waiting for her today, but she might be the quickest out of the gate from the inside, and that gives at least some hope that she can catch a flyer and get brave on the engine.
#7 Ten Count Out Should get a really good go of things from close range, but her form has always been sort of all over the place, so I'm not 100% confident that she runs back to the big win last out.
#2 Veronica's Dream Was favored against Ten Count Out last time when third, and she has some ability to spy the speed which might work in her favor here. Not out of the question.
Race Summary Silver Moon Rising owns some pace from the inside, and though she meets a tougher group here, there is a small chance she gets the kind of trip where she can try to run them off their feet.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Sorryaboutnothing Capable of something better than he showed last time out, he should get a really good run of the race behind several forward players who may not allow one another to settle too much in the early going.
#2 Hunka Burning Love Oaklawn form stacks up nicely enough with these, and the move into the Broberg barn gives him a real chance to produce a big one today.
#7 Stephen's Answer Speed rarely passes horses, so he might have only one serious path to victory in this spot right up top, but he's going to have some company up there today.
Race Summary Sorryaboutnothing has some finishing ability that might come into play if the speed players burn one another out in the early going here.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Miss Elise Closed three lengths in the final furlong and settled for 2nd last out; has been solid in two of her last three and has the edge over these.
#6 P R Gold Money Broke her maiden on her 15th try last out and has been steadily improving; can be a factor in her 1st vs. winners.
#7 Question Markie Improved to 4th last start and looks to be headed in the right direction; can be a late threat vs. this group.
Race Summary Miss Elise has been in good form for a year; finished well in two of her last three and can get up late.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 Reversaloffortune Rallied for 3rd last time and gets a good pace setup here; does his best from off the pace and should be rolling here.
#1 Taylor's Prince Has good speed and should be troublesome along the rail; can be tough to catch.
#8 Ohtani Beat N3L company last time out, most up a notch in conditions and can stick around for a piece of the trifecta.
Race Summary Reversaloffortune should benefit from following a lively pace and can show the best late energy of this crew.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Kat Dude Comes off a front-running score in the Baxter Stakes; trainer Black's stable has perform very well recently and this one looms as the one to beat.
#3 Djinn of Djibouti Made a powerful run in the final quarter-mile and won going away; strong in her last two and can be a big player.
##6 Ye Be Judged Stablemate of top choice here routed Nebraska-bred rivals in the Fonner Park Speed Stakes last out; faces open company but is in good form and can get a piece of it.
Race Summary Kat Dude went to the lead and it all worked out in the Baxter; improving and looms as the one to collar in the stretch.
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