UFC 249 Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 5/9/20

UFC 249 will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena from Jacksonville, Florida with a 12-fight card.

Listed below are the matchups, trends and wagers that bettors may lean toward or against based on those trends.

UFC 249 Main Event
Interim Lightweight Championship
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Tony Ferguson (36-years-old)
UFC Record (15-1)

Last Fight - June 8, 2019 (UFC 238)
5-0 in last five bouts, four wins as a favorite
Last two fights ended by corner or doctor stoppage, both after second round (10 minutes)
Four of last five fights have finished inside distance
Five of last 10 fights have ended via submission

Justin Gaethje (31-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2)

Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 16)
Started UFC 1-2, has won three straight fights since
All three wins came within the first round
Listed as underdog in four of six UFC fights
All six UFC bouts for Gaethje have finished inside distance and only two lasted more than two rounds
In 23 professional fights, Gaethje has never been submitted in his Mixed Martial Arts career and he only owns one submission victory
During the same span, Gaethje has had only two fights go the distance and he won both those fights via decision

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Tony Ferguson by KO/TKO (+260)
Tony Ferguson by KO/TKO or Submission (-125)
Tony Ferguson by Submission (+260)
Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO or Submission (+165)
Justin Gaethje KO/TKO & Round 1 (+500)
How fight will End - KO/TKO (-160)
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (-138)

Bets to Avoid
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450)
Justin Gaethje by Submission (+2600)
Bantamweight Championship
Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz
Henry Cejudo (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-1)

Last Fight - June 8, 2019 (UFC 238)
5-0 past five fights, including two straight via KO/TKO
In 17 career fights, he has zero losses via submission
He has never won a fight by submission
His last loss in UFC came April 23, 2016 at UFC 197

Dominick Cruz (35-years-old)
UFC Record (5-1)

Last Fight - Dec. 30, 2016 (UFC 207)
'The Dominator' last fought Dec. 30, 2016 due to injuries
His last UFC victory came June 4, 2016 vs. Urijah Faber
Seven of Cruz's past eight fights have been decisions (6-1)
Cruz hasn't won a professional fight via submission since Sept. 9, 2006
He is 4-1 in his past five UFC championship bouts

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Henry Cejudo wins by decision (+145)
Henry Cejudo wins by unanimous decision (+215)
Henry Cejudo by TKO/KO (+255)
Dominick Cruz wins by decision (+265)
Total Rounds - Over 4.5 (-200)

Bets to Avoid
Dominick Cruz wins inside distance (+800)
Dominick Cruz wins by submission (+1500)
Henry Cejudo by submission (+1370)
Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Francis Ngannou (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-2)

Last Fight - June 29, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 3)
3-0 past three fights, with all three via Round 1 KO/TKO
In 11 career UFC fights, only one has ended via submission (1-0)
Each of his past six UFC wins, and eight of the past nine, are by KO/TKO
Ngannou's past six KO/TKO wins have been in Round 1
His only two UFC losses, and three career setbacks, are via unanimous decision

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (32-years-old)
UFC Record (4-0)

Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 7)
4-0 in four career UFC fights, all via KO/TKO
Nine of his 10 professional bouts have been won by KO/TKO
Three of his four UFC fights have ended by 0:54 of Round 2
Rozenstruik recorded a KO/TKO in 0:09 of Round 1 vs. Allen Crowder on June 22, 2019

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (-115)
Francis Ngannou wins inside distance (-140)
Francis Ngannou wins by KO/TKO (-115)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins inside distance (+365)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins in Round 1 (+650)
Jairzinko Rozenstruik wins by KO/TKO (+385)

Bets to Avoid
Fight goes to decision (+250)
Francis Ngannou wins by decision (+430)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins by decision (+687)
Total Rounds - Over 1.5 (-105)
Featherweight Bout
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar
Jeremy Stephens (33-years-old)
UFC Record (15-14-1)

Last Fight - Oct. 18, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 6)
0-3-1 past four bouts, including one no contest
In past 26 professionals bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
His past two UFC wins, and four of past seven, are by KO/TKO
2-4-1 in past seven bouts as an underdog

Calvin Kattar (32-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2)

Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 21)
Past three UFC wins are via KO/TKO, including two straight in Round 1
Two career UFC losses are via unanimous decision
In past 16 professional bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
2-0 in past two UFC bouts as a favorite

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Calvin Kattar wins inside distance (+225)
Calvin Kattar wins by KO/TKO (+280)
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+158)
Jeremy Stephens wins inside distance (+500)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Over 2.5 (-180)
Fight goes to decision (-155)

UFC 249 Expert Picks
Heavyweight Bout
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro
Greg Hardy (31-years-old)
UFC Record (2-2-1)

Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 21)
In eight professional bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
All five of his career victories have come by KO/TKO
He is 1-1-1 in three UFC bouts as the favorite

Yorgan De Castro (33-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)

Last Fight - Oct. 5, 2019 (UFC 243)
Won his UFC debut Oct. 5, 2019 vs. Justin Tafa as a slight underdog
Five of his six wins as a professional are by KO/TKO
Four of his wins as a professional have come in Round 1

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+130)
Greg Hardy wins by KO/TKO (+160)
Greg Hardy wins inside distance (+158)
Yorgan De Castro wins by KO/TKO (+245)
Yorgan De Castro wins inside distance (+235)

Bets to Avoid
Greg Hardy wins by decision (+230)
Yorgan De Castro wins by decision (+900)
Fight goes to decision (+165)
UFC 249 Prelims
Welterweight Bout
Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone
Anthony Pettis (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-9)

Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020 (UFC 246)
1-3 across past four bouts, and 4-8 over past 12 fights
Has been knocked out in three of past eight outings
Beat Donald Cerrone in their first-ever meeting on Jan. 26, 2013, winning by KO/TKO (Round 1, 2:35)
Four of his previous six victories have come via submission

Donald Cerrone (37-years-old)
UFC Record (23-10)

Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020 (UFC 246)
0-3 across past three fights (C. McGregor, J. Gaethje, T. Ferguson), losing all three by KO/TKO
Last win came May 4, 2019 vs. Al Iaquinta by unanimous decision
Has recorded just one win via KO/TKO across past 11 fights dating back to Dec. 10, 2016
Only three of his past 17 fights overall have went the distance

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Over 2.5 (+106)
Fight goes to decision (+114)
Fight ends by decision (+105)

Bets to Avoid
Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO (+600)
Anthony Pettis by KO/TKO (+250)
Heavyweight Bout
Fabricio Werdum vs. Aleksei Oleinik
Fabricio Werdum (42-years-old)
UFC Record (11-5)

Last Fight - Mar. 17, 2018 (UFC Fight Night 127)
3-3 across past six bouts, including two losses by KO/TKO (A. Volkov, S. Miocic)
Three of his past five fights have gone the distance, and seven of his past 15 have been decisions
7-0 across past seven fights as a favorite of -200 or greater
7-2 over past nine bouts overall as a favorite

Aleksei Oleinik (42-years-old)
UFC Record (7-4)

Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020 (UFC 246)
2-3 across his past five bouts, all as an underdog
Each of his past three losses have come via KO/TKO
His past five victories in UFC, and 10 of his past 11 professional wins, have been by submission
Each of his past eight UFC fights have finished inside the distance

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Fabricio Werdum by KO/TKO or Submission (-135)
Aleksei Oleinik by KO/TKO or Submission (+320)
Fabricio Werdum KO/TKO & Round 1 (+340)
Aleksei Oleinik KO/TKO & Round 1 (+1900)

Bets to Avoid
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+235) Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+110)
Women’s Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson
Carla Esparza (32-years-old)
UFC Record (6-4)

Last Fight - Sept. 21, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 17)
Topped Alexa Grasso by majority decision last time out on Sept. 21, 2019
All five of her victories at the UFC level have come via decision (four unanimous)
Hasn't lost via submission since Aug. 12, 2010 at BFC: Bellator Fighting Championships 24
4-1 across past five bouts as a favorite

Michelle Waterson (34-years-old)
UFC Record (5-3)

Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
3-3 across past six bouts overall
3-1 over the past four fights as an underdog, 4-0 in past four as an underdog of +350 or less
Has never had a KO/TKO win or loss in seven fights at the UFC level
Each of her past five fights have gone the distance

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Carla Esparza by Decision (-115)
Michelle Waterson by Decision (+210)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-450)
How will fight end - Decision (-440)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+410)
Middleweight Bout
Ronaldo Souza vs. Uriah Hall
Ronaldo Souza (40-years-old)
UFC Record (9-5)

Last Fight - Nov. 16, 2019
Lost by split decision to Jan Blachowicz at UFC on ESPN+ 22
1-3 across past four fights overall, with all three losses by decision
Enters 0-2 across past two fights, and has never lost three fights in a row in career
Has never been submitted in 34 career professional fights

Uriah Hall (35-years-old)
UFC Record (8-7)

Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019
Defeated Antonio Carlos Junior by split decision last time out on UFC on ESPN+ 16
'Prime Time' enters just 3-4 across his past seven outings, although he is 2-0 in past two
Five of his past six outings have resulted in either win or loss by KO/TKO
In 25 professional fights, only one has resulted in submission, a win at ROC 39 on Feb. 10, 2012

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
How will fight End - KO/TKO (+155)
Ronaldo Souza by KO/TKO or Submission (+160)
Uriah Hall by Submission or Decision (+300)

Bets to Avoid
Uriah Hall by KO/TKO (+260)
UFC 249 Early Prelims
Welterweight Bout
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price
Vicente Luque (28-years-old)
UFC Record (10-3)

Last Fight - Nov. 2, 2019 (UFC 244)
All three UFC losses came by unanimous decision
Only one of 10 wins came by decision
Eight of 10 wins finished in second round or earlier
Four of last five wins finished by KO or TKO

Niko Price (30-years-old)
UFC Record (7-3)

Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
Has alternated wins and losses off last four fights
In 10 UFC fights, all have finished inside distance
Price has never seen the third round in any of his bouts
Seven outcomes by KO, three by Submission

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Vicente Luque by KO/TKO or Submission (-170)
Vicente Luque KO/TKO & Round 1 (+350)
Vicente Luque KO/TKO & Round 2 (+1000)
How will fight end? KO/TKO (-115)

Bets to Avoid
Vicente Luque by Submission or Decision (+135)
Niko Price by Submission or Decision (+550)
Featherweight Bout
Bryce Mitchell vs. Charles Rosa
Bryce Mitchell (25-years-old)
UFC Record (3-0)

Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 7)
3-0 record in UFC
First two wins by decision, most recent by submission (Twister)
Earned 2019 Submission of the Year with the Dec. 7 win

Charles Rosa (33-years-old)
UFC Record (3-3)

Last fight on Oct. 18, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 6) - submission win
Has never won back-to-back fights in UFC
Two of three UFC wins came via submission
Five of six fights have gone into the third round

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
How fight will end - Points/Decision (-160)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-146)
Bryce Mitchell by Submission or Decision (-165)
Charles Rosa by Submission or Decision (+180)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+172)
Light Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey
Ryan Spann (28-years-old)
UFC Record (4-0)

Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
Listed as favorite in all four UFC fights
Four straight wins in UFC, including Dana White's Contender Series 10
Three of four wins finished inside distance
Two of the victories by Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Sam Alvey (33-years-old)
UFC Record (10-8)

Last Fight - July 20, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 4)
Largest underdog on the UFC 249 card
0-3 record in last three fights
Two of three losses were finished in second round or earlier
Four of last five wins came by decision, two of them split

Based on Fighter Trends
Bets to Make
Ryan Spann by KO/TKO or Submission (-145)
Will the fight go the distance? No (-240)
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+130)

Bets to Avoid
How fight will end - Points/Decision (+170)

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje Odds, Predictions, Preview
May 9, 2020

UFC 249 - Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Vegas Betting Preview & Predictions
Date: Saturday, May 9 2020
Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 6:30 p.m. ET
UFC 249 Betting Odds

Tony Ferguson -175 Justin Gaethje +155
Henry Cejudo -250 Dominick Cruz +210
Francis Ngannou -265 Jairzinho Rozenstruik +225
Calvin Kattar -260 Jeremy Stephens +220
Greg Hardy -190 Yorgan De Castro +160
Anthony Pettis -145 Donald Cerrone +125
Fabricio Werdum -330 Aleksei Oleinik +270
Carla Esparza -145 Michelle Waterson +125
Ronaldo Jacare Souza (OFF) Uriah Hall (OFF)
Vicente Luque -280 Niko Price +240
Bryce Mitchell -160 Charles Rosa +140
Ryan Spann -450 Sam Alvey +375

**OFF - Ronaldo Souza out of UFC 249 after testing positive for the coronavirus

Subject to Change - Updates
UFC Interim Lightweight Championship
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
The long-awaited showdown for lightweight supremacy between undefeated and undisputed champ Khabib ‘The Eagle’ Nurmagomedov and Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson at UFC 249 was cancelled for the fifth time. This time around, it took a global pandemic to get the cursed bout scrapped.

Nevertheless, we’ve still got a great main event set to headline Saturday’s stacked 12-fight card at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. In fact, I’m more stoked for this matchup of Ferguson vs. Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje for the interim UFC lightweight title.

Ferguson (25-3 MMA, 15-1 UFC) will put his 12-fight winning streak on the line. It is the longest such streak in UFC lightweight history.

As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Ferguson installed as a -190 ‘chalk,’ with Gaethje as the +160 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -138, ‘over’ +114).

Ferguson has not lost since May 5 of 2012 when he dropped a unanimous decision to Michael ‘The Menace’ Johnson. Since then, his victim list has included the likes of Danny Castillo, Abel Trujillo, Gleison Tibau, Josh Thomson, Edson Barboza, Lando Vannata, Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone.

Dos Anjos and Pettis are former UFC champions, Thomson is the former Strikeforce lightweight champ and Cerrone and Lee have both fought for the UFC’s 155-pound strap.

Both fighters made weight Friday morning. In fact, 23 of the 24 competitors hit their marks.

Both men stand 5-foot-11, but Ferguson has a 6.5-inch reach advantage (76.5-70). Gaethje, 31, is the younger man by five years.

Gaethje (21-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) has been must-see television since the former World Series of Fighting lightweight champ signed with the promotion in 2017. His first two appearances in the Octagon resulted in Fights of the Year.

In the first, he took out Johnson by KO with 12 seconds left in Round 2 of a non-stop battle for the ages. Next, Gaethje lost for the first time in his career by third-round KO against former UFC lightweight kingpin Eddie Alvarez.

When Gaethje fought Dustin Poirier in another epic contest, he went into the fourth round for the only time in his career. Poirier finished Gaethje by KO only 33 seconds into the fourth frame.

Ferguson has been into the fourth round twice, going the five-round distance in his won over Dos Anjos.

Since the loss to Poirier, Gaethje has ripped off three consecutive wins. He’s starched James Vick, Barboza and Cerrone with first-round KOs.
UFC 249 Prediction
You aren’t going to make a good living by fading Ferguson. Nevertheless, I like Gaethje’s chances here because of his superior power, and the underdog odds don’t hurt, either. Let’s go with one unit on Gaethje for a +160 return.
UFC Bantamweight Championship
Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz
After struggling with no luck at all in terms of injuries galore for nearly a decade, perhaps the luck of 35-year-old former two-time UFC bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz has taken a turn in his favor. After being sidelined for more than three years with multiple injuries, Cruz was in no position to get a title shot upon his return.

However, with Jose Aldo stuck in Brazil due to the travel ban, bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo (15-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC) was left without an opponent. Therefore, Cruz lucked into a title shot and has a chance to become the 135-pound king for the third time.

As of Friday, FanDuel had Cejudo listed as a -215 favorite for the co-main event vs. Cruz, a +180 underdog. The total was 3.5 rounds (‘over’ -270, ‘under’ +205).

Cejudo brings a five-fight winning streak into his first bantamweight title defense. Cejudo’s run started at UFC 215 where he scored a knockout win over Wilson Reis in a flyweight contest. Next, he topped Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision, setting up a second shot at Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson for the UFC’s flyweight championship.

Cejudo lost to Johnson by first-round KO in their first meeting at UFC 197, but he won a split decision in the rematch at UFC 227 to unseat the only champion the flyweight division had ever had. The win also ended Johnson’s winning streak that had lasted nearly seven years.

For his first flyweight title defense, Cejudo had to face T.J. Dillashaw, who was attempting to earn double-champ status by dropping down to 125 pounds. However, Dillashaw’s grand plans were smashed in more ways than one.

First, he got smashed by Cejudo in merely 32 seconds for his first loss in almost three years. Second, Dillashaw tested positive for a banned substance that earned him a two-year USADA suspension and resulted in him being stripped of his 135-pound strap.

With the bantamweight belt up for grabs, Cejudo went up in weight to take on Marlon Moraes for the title. Even with a badly sprained ankle that was still purple on the night of the fight, Cejudo rallied from a rough start to finish Moraes with ground-and-pound punishment late in the third frame.

Cruz (22-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) hasn’t been in the Octagon since Dec. 30 of 2016, the same night that Ronda Rousey was sent into retirement by Amanda Nunes in the UFC 207 main event. In the co-main event, Cruz lost his 135-pound title to Cody Garbrandt by UD.

The setback ended a 13-fight winning streak for Cruz, who has spent most of his time off recovering from injuries by serving as an analyst for UFC broadcasts. But Cruz claims he’s healthy now and, at the age of 35, thinks he has plenty of gas left in his tank. We shall see Saturday night.
UFC 249 Prediction
Cruz was out nearly three years when he went right through Takeya Mizugaki with a first-round KO in only 51 seconds. Then injuries struck again but after another layoff of more than one year, ‘The Dominator’ came back to win the bantamweight championship with a split-decision win over Dillashaw. He defended the belt once with a second win over Urijah Faber, but then he lost to Garbrandt. Cruz’s two losses have come to Faber and Garbrandt when both were champions and in their prime. There’s no shame in that. Cruz has proven in multiple instances that Octagon rust doesn’t apply to him. I like Cruz for one unit at +180 odds.
UFC Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
One of three heavyweight contests on the card is Francis ‘The Predator’ Ngannou vs. undefeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik. As of Friday, FanDuel had Ngannou as a -310 favorite against Rozenstruik, the +250 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (-110 either way). There’s no telling when Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier III is going to take place, but the Ngannou-Rozenstruik winner will be first in line for a title shot once that situation plays out. Ngannou (14-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) has three straight wins by first-round KOs, with two former champions among his victims. First, Ngannou dusted Curtis Blaydes (for the second time) in only 45 seconds. Next, it was two-time former heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez who was finished in merely 26 seconds. Then in Ngannou last Octagon appearance, he needed only 61 seconds to sleep Junior dos Santos.

Rozenstruik (10-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) remained unbeaten this past December when he mounted a furious rally to beat Alistair Overeem by KO with only four seconds left in the fifth and final round. Overeem had dominated his opponent for the most part in that main event in Washington D.C., and ‘The Reem’ was undoubtedly going to win a decision comfortably. But ‘Bigi Boy’ wouldn’t be denied in the closing moments, flooring Overeem and leaving his lip disfigured and destined for plastic surgery. It was the latest KO in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division.

Rozenstruik has nine career wins by KO with seven of those coming in the opening round. He also has the second-fastest KO in UFC heavyweight history, a nine-second win over Allen Crowder, in addition to a first-round KO win over Andrei Arlovski in merely 29 seconds.
UFC 249 Prediction
My favorite play on the card is Ngannou-Rozenstruik ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at a -110 price. Let’s go with three units on that ‘under.’ Furthermore, I’ll risk one-half unit on Rozenstruik to pull the upset for a generous +250 return.
UFC Heavyweight Bout
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar
Seventh-ranked featherweight Jeremy ‘Lil’ Heathen’ Stephens was the only fighter to miss weight Friday, as he came in at 150.5 pounds, 4.5 pounds above the 146 mark allowed for featherweight non-title scraps. The fight will go on, but Stephens must forfeit 30 percent of his purse to his opponent, ninth-ranked Calvin ‘The Boston Finisher’ Kattar.

Stephens’ missing weight hasn’t impacted the odds. FanDuel hasn’t moved from its position on Thursday, with Kattar (20-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) still installed as -250 ‘chalk.’ Stephens is +205 on the comeback, while the total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -166, ‘under’ +136).

The 32-year-old Kattar is in bounce-back mode after losing a UD to Zabit Magomedsharipov (29-28 across) as a road underdog this past November in Moscow. His other loss during his UFC run came by UD against Renato Moicano at UFC 223 in Brooklyn.

Kattar’s last three wins have come by knockouts against Shane Burgos, Chris Fishgold and perennial featherweight contender, Ricardo ‘The Bully’ Lamas.

Speaking of KOs, Stephens (28-17-1 MMA, 15-16-1 UFC) owns 19 of them during his up-and-down career. The product of Des Moines, Iowa, will move into third place in UFC history when he make his 33rd career walk Saturday in Jacksonville. He’ll be looking to taste victory for the first time in more than two years.

Like Kattar, Stephens lost a close decision to Magomedsharipov, who is currently ranked third in the 145-pound loop. He also lost a tight decision (29-28 across again) to fifth-ranked Yair Rodriguez. The other loss for Stephens during his three-fight losing streak came vs. Jose Aldo, who ruled the division as champ for nearly a decade.
UFC 249 Prediction
The last time Stephens missed weight he scored a third-round KO victory over Dennis Burmudez with a vicious flying knee. At the age of 33, Stephens still has a lot left and he’s in dire need of a win her in this spot. Give me Stephens for one-half unit for the +205 payout.
UFC Heavyweight Bout
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro
The opener of the main card is another heavyweight contest between Greg Hardy and Yorgan De Castro. As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Hardy (5-2-1 MMA, 4-2-1 UFC) installed as a -205 favorite, with De Castro sporting +172 underdog odds. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -156, ‘under’ +138).

Hardy is off a UD loss to Alexander Volkov, who was ranked seventh at the time and was the first ranked opponent that Hardy had faced. The former NFL player for the Carolina Panthers saw his first six MMA fights go ‘under’ 1.5 rounds, but his last two have gone ‘over.’

De Castro (6-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) has scored a pair of first-round KOs over Justin Tafa and Sanford Alton Meeks since joining the promotion. Five of his six career wins have come by KO and four of those ended in the opening round.
UFC 249 Prediction
Prediction: For my play on this heavyweight scrap, check out my UFC 249 pick pack!
UFC 249 Bonus Predictions
The depth of this card is on full display when you see that Cerrone vs. Pettis isn’t even on the main card. Instead, it’s the Prelims headliner that should start shortly after 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Cerrone and Pettis are set to tangle in a rematch of Pettis’s first-round KO win (liver kick) in Chicago more than seven years ago. Both men are in desperate need of a victory here.

As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Pettis (22-10 MMA, 9-9 UFC) listed as a -152 favorite while Cerrone was at +130. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -122, ‘over’ +100).

Pettis has dropped back-to-back fights and is mired in a 4-8 slump. After beating Cerrone in 2013, Pettis won the UFC lightweight title with a first-round submission win over Benson Henderson. However, after successfully defending his strap with a second-round submission win over Gilbert Melendez, the 4-8 slide started.

Cerrone (36-14-1 MMA, 23-11 UFC) has lost three consecutive fights by KOs to Conor McGregor, Gaethje and Ferguson. Now to be clear, those are three of the best fighters in the world, but even the 36-year-old Cerrone has recently conceded that he can “see the light at the end of the tunnel” to his storied career.

We should also mention that Cerrone had won three in a row before this recent three-fight skid. He also bagged four fight-night bonuses in those three victories over Mike Perry, Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta.

Cerrone owns the most wins in UFC history (23), the most finishes (16), the most fight-night bonuses (18), the most knockdowns (20) and will surpass Jim Miller on Saturday when he makes his 35th career walk. He also has the second-most wins in lightweight history (17) and the third-most finishes (10) in the 155-pound division.

Prediction: For my play on this lightweight clash, you can check out my UFC 249 pick pack!

In another heavyweight tilt, former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1 MMA, 11-5 UFC) is a -330 favorite vs. Alexey Oleynik (+250). Werdum is returning from a two-year USADA suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.

Werdum has finishes in 17 of his 23 career wins. He has 11 submissions and six KOs.

Oleynik (58-13-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) has six wins by submission and one by KO during his UFC tenure. He’s bested the likes of Anthony Hamilton, Jared Rosholt, Viktor Pesta, Travis Browne, Junior Albini, Mark Hunt and Maurice Green.

Oleynik owns 46 career wins by submission, eight by KO and four via decision. He also has the only two submissions by Ezekiel Choke in UFC history, executing one of them from the bottom while mounted against Albini.

Prediction:‘Under’ 1.5 rounds has an 8-3 record in Oleynik’s 11-fight UFC tenure. Seven of those 11 fights have ended in Round 1. We know Werdum has finishing ability with his striking on the feet and his submissions on the ground. Let’s go with two units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for a +110 payout.