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Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 5/9/20

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/9/20

 
Posted : May 9, 2020 9:21 am
(@shazman)
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Horse Races Today: Saturday's Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs Analysis & Odds
May 8, 2020
By Mike Dempsey

We capped off Friday with my top pick Noble Alma getting the job done in the nightcap, and she went off at a nice overlay, returning $36.00 to win off her 6-1 morning line, and we don’t see that happen very often.

The Jackpot 6 went unsolved for the 12th consecutive day, leaving a carryover going into Saturday of $1,481,488.75. There is a mandatory payout and with only two thoroughbred tracks running, all eyes will be on Hallandale, Florida from races 7 through 12.

The pool could easily rise over $7 million and some think it could approach $9 or $10 million.

The feature on Saturday is the $75,000 Sunshine Forever, which is the ninth race on the 12-race card. The race lost a marquee name as War of Will, last year’s Preakness Stakes (G1) winner will scratch according to his trainer Mark Casse.

It looks as if the colt will head to Santa Anita for the Shoemaker Mile (G1) which is scheduled for May 25. Racing is expected to return at Santa Anita next week.

I had War of Will as my fourth choice in the race, so the scratch won’t affect me much. I think El Tormenta could pull off the upset as the gelding is better than his 12th place finish in the Appleton (G3) last out, his first start off a 4 ½ month break.

The Jackpot 6 has no free squares, but with the .20 increment it makes it easy to go deep in at least a few races. A couple of horse I may lean toward heavily on my tickets will include Fast Scene in the seventh, I’ll Fight Dempsey in the 11th and Peppi the Hunter in the nightcap.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.

Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 5/9
GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (12:45 ET)
#5 Jack Beanstalk 6-1
#2 Mayito 9-5
#9 Traffic Trouble 7-2
#10 Sweet Giant 9-2

Analysis: Jack Beanstalk is back on turf here after a game third last out in the slop in a race taken off the turf. The gelding was beaten just a head and a neck and has now been the beaten favorite in each of his last three starts. Two back on turf he set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth going a mile. The Casse trainee drops another notch here in for a $12,500. Saez sticks for another go on this gelding, who is by Jack Milton out of a Roman Ruler mare that has dropped one dirt winner. Looks as if his price may be a bit better here.

Mayito tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $16,000 foes, unable to catch the winner in the stretch. The winner came back to run fourth against $12,500 claimers in his next outing. The gelding has landed the runner up spot three times now in five starts and looks headed in the right direction since landing with the Joseph barn, who is back on track after going cold for a couple of weeks. The gelding drops into a softer spot and does not need to move forward much off his last effort to pick up his diploma in this spot.
Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day Analysis - 5/9
GP Race 9 The Sunshine Forever (4:59 ET)
#3 El Tormenta 12-1
#9 Social Paranoia 3-1
#11 Admission Office 5-2
#6 Halladay 4-1

Analysis: El Tormenta pulled off a shocker in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last September at 44-1. He followed that up with a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) where he prompted the early pace and weakening to finish 4 ½ lengths back of the winner. Last out in his return race off the bench here in the Appleton (G3) he drew a tough spot and was away last. He rushed up to grab the lead as they headed into the back stretch and he was done by the far turn. It was his first start off a 4 ½ month break. The blinkers come off and he figures to be more settled here as he was in his big win at Woodbine. Looks capable of moving forward second off the bench and is going to be a generous price in this spot.

Social Paranoia came from last to first to win the Appleton in his first start off a 6 ½ month layoff. He graduated here last year, and he won just one of his next five starts but ran well in all, his win coming in the Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs. He earned a career top speed fig in his win last out and the extra half furlong here suits him. The colt will get some pace to run at as well. As good as Pletcher is off the bench his numbers do drop quite a bit with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff, hitting at just a 12% clip.

Admission Office earned a career top speed fig in his runner up finish in the Mac Diarmida (G2). The Lunch trainee was reserved near the back of the pack early, came with a good move and took over the lead but could not go with the talented Zulu Alpha late, beaten a length for the top spot while nearly four lengths clear of the third place finisher Sadler’s Joy. He is now 0 for 7 in takes races, landing in the money in six of those outings. He is cutting back in distance here while drawing a tough post. His best puts him in the mix, but his price may end up on the light side.
Tampa Bay Downs Featured Race of the Day Analysis - 5/9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:

TAM Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:35 ET)
#9 Impressive Speed 8-1
#3 Expensive Style 5-2
#4 Dark Web 8-5
#2 Evidence 9-2

Analysis: Impressive Speed looks eligible to move forward after a good effort in his debut. The gelding was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early place, came up toward the inside splitting rivals to get into the hunt and then weakened to finish third in a nine horse field, sent off at 13-1. That effort came against $40,000 maiden claimers and he steps up in class, but he is going to be a decent price in this spot. The gelding is out of a Broad Brush mare that has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of winners. He should get a god trip from mid pack and if he moved forward, he can be in the hunt here at a decent price.

Expensive Style stalked the early pace, came with a five-wide move, and then weakened to finish fifth last out. He finished in the money in each of his first five starts including a tough nose loss three back here. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks like a good fit here. He was a cheap buy at $5,500, the first foal to race out of a Da Stoops mare.
Live Longshots - 5/9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R3: #9 Temperance 12-1
R3: #3 By His Grace 12-1
R5: #6 Nenita 12-1
R8: #8 Reservenotattained 8-1
R8: #4 War Act 10-1
R9: #3 El Tormenta 12-1
R10: #11 Shootin the Breeze 8-1
R10: #3 Sublime Appeal 12-1
R12: #10 Starship Apollo 8-1
R12: #9 Dexter Road 8-1

 
Posted : May 9, 2020 9:25 am
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Saturday's Best Bet: Trappezoid can rally for the win at Gulfstream
By Jarrod Horak
May 9, 2020

Saturday’s 12th race from Gulfstream Park is a starter optional claiming event for 3-year-olds and up traveling one mile on the main track (Post Time - 6:32 p.m. ET).

#2 TRAPPEZOID (5-1) exits a wide show finish as the beaten favorite April 19, and that snapped his local 2-race win streak. He can threaten these if the pace heats up, and there is a good chance that it will.

#1 The Robert (12-1) is a late running Parx shipper with Joel Rosario in the saddle. He easily broke his maiden in his lone local dirt try at one mile last year.

#6 The Queens Jules (4-1) is back on the main track, and both of his local flat mile dirt starts were solid. He was 2nd in a $16,000 claimer late last year, and easily captured an $8,000 affair March 22.

#3 Peppi the Hunter (9-5) might not be able to duplicate his sharp April 4 win for Saffie Joseph Jr. He was claimed that day for $8,000 by a low profile barn, and his new rider is winless at Gulfstream.

#9 Dexter Road (8-1) hit the board in his last four starts and can be used underneath.

Wagers:

#2 to win

Quinella 2/1-6

Trifecta 1-2-6/1-2-3-6/9

Recent Best Bet Winners

April 20 - SHE'S ALL WOLFE ($2.80), Trifecta ($89.00)

April 21 - CANEY'S GHOST ($5.80), Quinella ($9.00), Trifecta ($14.10)

April 23 - LUNA FORTIS ($25.40)

April 24 - Artemus Eagle/River Finn Exacta ($77.20)

April 25 - Sneaking Out/Bye Bye J/Ready to Runaway Trifecta ($20.05)

April 29 - Eaton's Memory/Matapan Exacta ($8.60)

May 6 - LAWTON ($8.80), Exacta ($29.00), Trifecta ($50.60)

May 7 - KOKO STAR ($7.80), Trifecta ($171.70)

 
Posted : May 9, 2020 9:29 am
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) (.50 cent Minimum)

Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:27P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KOOL MAN SUCCESS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JESS A CANDY ROGUE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. PEVES BIG HOSS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
KOOL MAN SUCCESS
8/1

9/2
1
JESS A CANDY ROGUE
5/2

9/2
9
PEVES BIG HOSS
5/1

6/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
JESS A CANDY ROGUE
1

5/2
Average
82

61

0.0

0.0

0.0
2
TRULIE SATISFEYEN
2

15/1
Slow
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
3
KOOL MAN SUCCESS
3

8/1
Average/Trouble-prone
71

67

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
CONSPICUOUSLY SWEET
4

6/1
Fast/Trouble-prone
0

0

3.0

0.0

0.0
7
JESS THE LADY
7

12/1
Average
0

0

5.9

0.0

0.0
8
EYESA TIMBER
8

8/1
Fast
61

56

0.0

0.0

0.0
9
PEVES BIG HOSS
9

5/1
Fast
71

62

0.0

0.0

0.0

 
Posted : May 9, 2020 9:46 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57403
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)

Handicap Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 93 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 9:44P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, LA PACIFICA H. - FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SOUTHERN WAGON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. TERRA FIRE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. ONE SWEET CHANGE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUITE EXPECTATIONS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL PRETTIED UP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6
SOUTHERN WAGON
2/1

5/1
2
TERRA FIRE
6/1

7/1
5
ONE SWEET CHANGE
10/1

7/1
4
SUITE EXPECTATIONS
3/1

8/1
1
ALL PRETTIED UP
10/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
ALL PRETTIED UP
1

10/1
Average/Trouble-prone
88

92

5.0

0.0

0.0
2
TERRA FIRE
2

6/1
Fast
91

85

2.7

0.0

0.0
3
JAVELINA CANTINA
3

6/1
Average
89

82

4.4

0.0

0.0
4
SUITE EXPECTATIONS
4

3/1
Average/Trouble-prone
92

87

3.7

0.0

0.0
5
ONE SWEET CHANGE
5

10/1
Average
89

86

4.1

0.0

0.0
6
SOUTHERN WAGON
6

2/1
Average
94

94

4.7

0.0

0.0
7
FASHIN ICON
7

4/1
Average/Trouble-prone
88

85

5.3

0.0

0.0
__________________

 
Posted : May 9, 2020 9:47 am
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