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Friday, May 8: Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Picks

May 7, 2020

From Hong Kong Jockey Club Racing Analyst, Declan Schuster

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
Friday, May 8, 2020
First Post: 1:00AM ET on Saturday, May 9, 2020

Race 1: #1 Xponential, #2 Hard Promise, #12 Shining On, #3 Breeze Of Spring
Race 2: #4 Clear Choice, #8 Touch Of Luck, #1 Ping Hai Treasure, #6 California Argent
Race 3: #10 General Trump, #2 Decisive Twelve, #1 Flying Bonus, #8 Universal Crown
Race 4: #9 Red Brick Fighter, #2 Joy Master, #10 Golden General, #4 Humble Steed
Race 5: #8 Gorgeous Inheritor, #11 Invaluable, #3 Leading Fortune, #14 Shinealot
Race 6: #9 Ka Fortune, #2 Jade Fortune, #11 Party Everyday, #4 This One’s For You
Race 7: #4 Relentless Me, #1 Fantasy, #8 Glenealy Generals, #5 Wind N Grass
Race 8: #7 Multimillion, #9 Loving A Boom, #5 Hong Kong Win, #11 Massive Pocket
Race 9: #2 Time To Celebrate, #1 Beauty Legacy, #12 Ballistic King, #4 Decrypt
Race 10: #10 Farhh Above, #11 Star Of Yuen Long, #4 Right Choice, #6 Assimilate

Race 1: Peridot Handicap (2nd Section) (1:00AM ET)

#1 Xponential has recaptured his form after wavering a touch following his debut win and if he can continue on an upward trajectory, then he is the one to beat. He’s drawn to get the right run for Chad Schofield who from gate four can ensure minimal energy is expensed in the run. #2 Hard Promise hasn’t won for over a year but his return to Class 4 has seen sharp improvement. He draws a much better gate here than his last two runs and with conditions to suit he can figure. #12 Shining On gets in light with only 117lb on his back, as well as the services of Joao Moreira. He’s consistent and off this mark it wouldn’t surprise to see him go on with it. #3 Breeze Of Spring is racing honestly and should be around the mark again.

Race 2: Jasper Handicap (1:30AM ET)

#4 Clear Choice loves the course and distance as a two-time winner already this term and he looks capable of adding a third here. The wide alley isn’t a concern in the small field and if he gets a clean run throughout, he should every chance to be hanging around at the finish. #8 Touch of Luck is looking to recapture his best. He’s raced consistently over this course and distance and with the inside draw, he should be able to contest the finish. #1 Ping Hai Treasure is proven over this course and distance as a winner last campaign. He returned admirably first-up and with that run under his belt, further improvement can be expected. #6 California Argent is next best.

Race 3: Peridot Handicap (1st Section) (2:00AM ET)

#10 General Trump was blocked in the straight for a run last start and although he was too far back, it did clearly cost him in the finish which could have easily seen him cross the line better than 10th. He can atone for that performance here as he appears to have held his consistency and as a course and distance winner, he is a proven customer. #2 Decisive Twelve has hit the ground running in Hong Kong with two competitive placings next to his name from just two outings. He has the wide gate to contend with but he appears to be on an upward spiral. #1 Flying Bonus receives a welcome drop to Class 4. This could be what he needs to be competitive and the booking of Zac Purton who is, fresh off a five-timer warrants plenty of respect. #8 Universal Crown can turn his form around with that run under his belt as his trials prior were sound.

Race 4: Topaz Handicap (2:30AM ET)

#9 Red Brick Fighter has taken his time to acclimatise but then penny does appear now to finally be dropping. He’s be consistent this term and he now looks ready to go on with the job, especially with Zac Purton taking the reins for the first time. #2 Joy Master has gate 13 to contend with but if he gets an ounce of luck at the start he can finish around the mark again. #10 Golden General has raced fairly over 1800m his last two starts. Key step to the mile here which should suit and gate seven is also favourable. #4 Humble Steed is looking for back-to-back wins. He can finish thereabouts, though, this is tougher than last time.

Race 5: Sapphire Handicap (3:00AM ET)

#8 Gorgeous Inheritor closed strongly at Happy Valley last start at only his third Hong Kong start. He can improve further here and should be suited by the spacious straight that Sha Tin has to offer. #11 Invaluable has been consistent all term without winning. He should find a nice spot throughout to see him in the finish. #3 Leading Fortune has the awkward gate to contend with but is racing well. This suits remaining in Class 4 and he’s in with a decent shout as a last start victor. #14 Shinealot is next best.

Race 6: Ruby Handicap (3:35AM ET)

#9 Ka Fortune turned in a solid performance last start for fourth and if he’s continued to improve off that performance he’s going to prove difficult to beat. Though, the wide ally on the dirt will make things difficult, but he still rates as a leading player. #2 Jade Fortune is the veteran of the field with 51 starts and four wins to his name. He warrants respect in this grade, especially with Zac Purton up. The Australian jockey is fresh off a five-timer last Wednesday at Happy Valley. #11 Party Everyday can be his own worst enemy at times, settling far too back in the field with too much work to do. Still, he is racing well and he’s likely to be trying to finish over the top of them again. #4 This One’s For You won’t be too far away.

Race 7: Crystal Handicap (4:05AM ET)

#4 Relentless Me is a very straightforward ride and if he finds the front here, he could take plenty of reeling in. He’s led and won previously and from the inside gate, with Jerry Chau taking 10 pounds off his back, he gets an excellent chance to go back-to-back. #1 Fantasy is looking for a hat-trick of wins. He has the big weight to lug this time against a number of key chances who get in light but still, he knows how to win and with race-experience on his side he’s set to be fighting out the finish. #10 Glenealy Generals is much better than his last start tenth suggests. He can figure in the small field. #5 Wind N Grass is next best.

Race 8: Amethyst Handicap (4:35AM ET)

#7 Multimillion is a five-time course and distance winner including first-up this season. He should relish racing over his favourite distance at Sha Tin and with conditions to suit, he’s a leading player for Karis Teetan who knows him well having won aboard him three times. #9 Loving A Boom flashed home to grab second in a strong Class 2 at the Valley last time out. He’s yet to race down the Sha Tin straight but, he has put together some high quality runs against strong company and if he can find his best here, he just might be able to threaten these. #5 Hong Kong Win has hit a purple patch of form having won two out of his last four starts. This suits and he bears close watching once again as the in-form on-the-up galloper. #11 Massive Pocket is not without a chance if he reproduce his course and distance score earlier this season.

Race 9: Amber Handicap (5:10AM ET)

#2 Time To Celebrate ran a blinder last start to grab second, beaten only by a short-head. If he can recapture that run again here from gate two for Chad Schofield then he’s in with a shout to grab his first win since early 2019. #1 Beauty Legacy has a fiery temperament which he struggles to control but when he is free-rolling in a race, he does manage to find a nice rhythm which can be favourable for him. If he can find that here and not pull his head off in the run, then on raw ability he’s going to test this bunch. #12 Ballistic King won well last start after missing twice by a neck previously. He steps up to Class 1 here which is always tough but still, does appear to have a number of ratings points still in hand. 2019 Irish 2000 Guineas third #4 Decrypt is next best.

Race 10: Emerald Handicap (5:45AM ET)

#10 Farhh Above has all the ability in the world but just needs a few things to go his way. Say he gets this, and a clean run in the straight then he’s capable of going on with it here, as long as he doesn’t find himself trapped far too back with too much work to do. #11 Star Of Yuen Long has ability but appears to have tapered off his last three runs. Still, conditions suit here from the good gate and he should get every chance to showcase his best. #4 Right Choice was a close-up second last start. He rates highly, though, once again draws poorly which is a concern against this bunch. #6 Assimilate has quite the temper but on his day he is rather slick. He rates strongly if he can keep it all together here.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 A Beautiful Day Lightly raced runner was just a good 3rd against slightly better, has the tactical speed to be on or just off the lead, and meets a very weak crew; imposing.
#5 Syllabus Price player got to the turf last time and woke way up, and while she won't be able to get to the pick, she can offer value underneath; may spice up your EX.
#2 All American Jewel Logical sort has been 3rd in two straight and certainly figures, but he lack of speed is a worry, now to mention her 9-0-5 lifetime mark; comes up short again.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 4, and that 5-2 ML is just another miss at GP, but even 8-5 or so seems fair on a miss who looks like she lays over these on paper, so play her aggressively to win and place if the tote allows, though you can get some added value by singling her to kick off the early Pk5, as that's not a move the betting public likes to employ in the opening leg of a horizontal sequence, even though in this case this miss just looks way too good over this meek crew.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Montana Man Class dropper was pressured early against better and predictably tired late, but yet wasn't beaten much, and today, against weaker, he should last longer, especially since he seems the controlling speed on paper; here's hoping he forgets to stop.
#5 Rhythm Section The second of a pair of Pletcher recent maiden winners flew home and was up in time to beat MSW foes, with a very big figure (for this group too), so if the pace gets a bit hotter than expected, he's going to be rolling late again; the one to beat.
#1 Mandate The first of the Pletcher maiden winners stalked then rolled home to an easy win last time, but he didn't beat anything near the quality of his 'mate, so the waters get a lot deeper here, and the price, with Irad up, will be an underlaid one; trad lightly.
Race Summary The price, pace, and competition should all work for the 3, as he won't have to work as hard early on here, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he may get brave here, and a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 R Happy Ending Local lover (8-3-3-1) headed to Tampa for a stakes and was a huge 3rd to a nice filly from a bad draw, is back in with friends here, has the tactical speed to lay just off the pace, and should be a very square price too; look out.
#6 Hidden Facts The gal to beat will be bet hard with Irad getting aboard, and she too has some proven stakes form, but she's lost four straight, including at odds-on against similar three-back, and this is a tougher crew today; trying to beat.
#5 Lady Grace Class riser for Casse looked good beating N1X foes last time to make it 2-for-2 since returning from the long break, and that win makes her a three-peat threat, but the top pair won't be all that impressed today; underneath only.
Race Summary That 9-2 ML seems fair on the 1, as she's got the proven form to play with this group, will like getting out of the stakes ranks, and has an affinity for the course too, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is a deep field, and she won't be favored, which means a win will knock out a lot of tickets that are siding with the sexier connections of the 5 and 6.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Two Last Words Might fall into a really good trip from the off the pace, as there are a couple of quick heavy hitters drawn further outside of him, and he might get a great run if he gets sprinted back early before making a run inside.
#4 The Goddess Lyssa Has done nothing wrong while airing by over 20 lengths in three wins combined, but there are a couple of speedy types who can probably keep her honest. She's trying the boys and deserves all the credit in the world for her first three starts, but I don't think she has to win this today at a short price.
#6 He's Smokin Now Would benefit from a serious speed battle up top with his finishing style, and while his ceiling isn't as high as some of the others in here, the race shape may flatter him.
Race Summary Two Last Words has a little bit of class to him and cuts back off the layoff. He can get a good run behind what figures to be a hot pace if this field stays intact.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 No Mercy Percy Should get honest splits to spy from the outside draw, and her only career turf try produced a local win at this trip last year.
#2 O'Keeffe Can't toss anything from this barn, especially at short dash trips, but I think there's a chance this filly gets overbet in a pretty tough race.
#6 Puntsville Faded off the scene last out in stakes company, but she's got plenty of room to bounce back and should be right up on the splits early.
Race Summary No Mercy Percy might get the run of the race, and her only lifetime turf sprint was pretty solid over the local footing. Settle and pounce?

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Idle Time Went sort of evenly in the debut run, but that should play well at this nine-furlong trip. He's got plenty of room to improve in this second start, making him a potentially scary proposition here.
#1 Beachwalker Owns a couple of races that would keep him in the mix with these, and he can tuck back and save some ground from a cozy draw.
#2 U S Delta Force Didn't miss by much in that comeback run, and any step forward off that try would make him pretty tough.
Race Summary Idle Time should hit hard with these off a useful debut run, and even #4 Felix the Fox has a claim on this, though he's short on excuses as he heads into this 12th career start with over $100,000 in maiden earnings.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 Just Like An Eagle Improved to 3rd in a futurity trial last out and can improve with distance; drew favorably here.
#6 Inseperable Blood Broke from the inside post, took a right and impeded several others; finished 4th, but was moved to 10th via DQ. Can only get a better trip.
#7 Fallout Well-connected, well-bred and has a couple of moderate works; top jock in Flores can help.
Race Summary Just Like An Eagle has been fairly close in both career starts and slight improvement could be good enough in this one.

Remington Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Cartels Dynasty Won a trial and qualified for the final of the Oklahoma Futurity and finished 7th; likely to improve with this longer distance.
#3 Bobos Ride Was very sharp in a gate to wire maiden score and is a threat to win right back; solid player.
#4 Contender Won at 1st asking and just missed in a trial for the Remington Park Futurity; capable of mixing it up for every jump of this.
Race Summary Cartels Dynasty was sharp 1st time out and just could not keep up last out; capable of getting back to winning.

Remington Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Best of You Has won 2 of 3 races, including a stakes event vs. Oklahoma-reds last out and has an excellent chance to make it three in a row; has shown gameness in her last two and is the one to outrun.
#8 Charlenas Relentless Ran 4th in a very good maiden race, gets more distance and can make some serious improvement.
#10 One Eagle Express Well-bred and gets top jock Flores for his 1st one, which is a good sign; expect a good effort at 1st asking.
Race Summary Best of You clearly has impressive early foot and has had the experience fight back when challenge as she has in her last two.
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InkBets Esports

ESL Road to Rio: Mousesports -1.5 v GODSENT @ 1.87/-115 (3 Units)
-These -1.5's on the big on paper mismatch games haven't been profitable online but this one has a fair bit of edge to me. I'd price this much closer to 1.66/-150 so I'm willing to lay this every day of the week. Mouz have absolutely no weakness for GODSENT to exploit. None. When you have players like ropz & frozen who are a stable set of hands no matter the match, map, or opponent there's little you can to do try to counter these players. GODSENT relies heavily on protocols and they just don't work very well versus Mouz. Mouz has strong set pieces and also the ability to call on the fly and every individual across the board to make a play. Which leads me to the next part of this: GODSENT's inability to close out rounds. They have had countless 2v2 or 3v2 situations in the past week and I'd ballpark figure them losing ~70% of those at minimum. Their chemistry isn't very strong recently and I, personally, wouldn't be overly surprised to see them tank out of this qualifier and resort to making a roster change. For a team that once had so much promise they have fallen off HARD. And oh yeah.. their one brightspot is normally their map pool in a BO3 -- good luck here. Mouz ban out Overpass and after that they don't have a single worry in the world regardless of what GODSENT pick into. Dust2/Inferno/Nuke/Train/Vertigo all favor Mousesports and heavily at that. Mouz NEED a 2-0 here to knock GODSENT into the bottom half of their group and take over their spot if they want to have a chance at making the major.

ESL Road to Rio: Copenhagen Flames +1.5 v FaZe @ 1.95/-105 (2.5 Units)
ESL Road to Rio: Copenhagen Flames ML v FaZe @ 4.55/+355 (0.5 Unit)
-First and foremost, this match is entirely meaningless to FaZe. They've already secured the #1 spot in their group and losing this could only HELP them. CPH Flames is right behind G2 for the #2 spot and you'd have to imagine FaZe would prefer Flames get in over G2. Again, they of course would never directly throw this game but there's no disputing they won't put the same effort of game planning into this match as they would for one that actually holds weight in their future. Entirely meaningless match for FaZe, while it's a gigantic match for CPH Flames.

ESL Road to Rio: Pro100 ML v Espada @ 2.02/+102 (2 Units)
-Pro100 are the better team in every regard. Not quite sure why they aren't the odds on favorite, but they certainly should be. They have by far the best player in the server in YEKINDAR, a future star, and a supporting cast that play off of eachother very well and have a ton of experience. Espada are no scrubs by any means, but they simply shouldn't be favored here. Pro100 Just 2-0'd VP and that's starting to have more merit as VP is picking up steam. Sure, pro100 lost to NaVi 0-2 but that was a NaVi team with their backs against the wall in desparate need of a clean 2-0 as the far & away best CIS team. Nothing overly surprising there. Pro100 have the better star player, better supporting cast, and deeper map pool. Should be favorites and even potential for 2-0 here.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8250 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 HITTERS LAST SWING 2/1

# 8 DASHING IS EASY 8/1

# 10 VANESSUKY 5/1

My selection in here is HITTERS LAST SWING. Looks very good versus this field and ought to be one of the front-runners. His 58 average has this gelding with among the most competitive Equibase Speed Figures here. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in lately. DASHING IS EASY - Has a strong shot in here if you like back class. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Magallanes have shown solid results lately. VANESSUKY - With a sound 57 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 JESS IS THE BOSS 5/2

# 3 CORONADOS LADY 3/1

# 9 DF FABULOUS JET 6/1

My selection for this event is JESS IS THE BOSS. Has performed solidly recently in short races, posting a nifty 80 avg speed figure. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look decent in this contest. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Ponce running at this distance are the best in this group. CORONADOS LADY - Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been quite good - 76 avg - of late. Put up a decent speed fig last time out. DF FABULOUS JET - A solid 74 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group of horses. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Black running at this distance are the most respectable in this field.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 DONNAMEUP (ML=7/2)

DONNAMEUP - I really like that last outing on Apr 10th at Tampa Bay Downs where she finished third. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should perform well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HIFALUTIN (ML=9/5), #8 MIGHTY ELECTRICA (ML=4/1), #5 ACTION ABSOLUTE DS (ML=5/1),

HIFALUTIN - Doesn't seem to have enough positive aspects to warrant the value. MIGHTY ELECTRICA - In any contest of 7 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in short distance races of late. Don't believe this mount will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was common when compared with today's class figure. ACTION ABSOLUTE DS - Can't wager on this mount in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently. More than enough tries at Tampa Bay Downs with no trips to the victory podium.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 DONNAMEUP on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:17pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 NIGHT WATCH (ML=4/1)
#6 AMALUNA (ML=15/1)

NIGHT WATCH - Just missed hitting the board on April 4th at Gulfstream Park. With pretty good M/L odds today, she has my interest. Came home in quick time in the last race. A positive sign. AMALUNA - You'll be making money left and right by turning your racing money onto this jock/conditioner combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ENLISTING (ML=2/1), #2 TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR (ML=3/1), #7 NOTHINS FREE (ML=6/1),

ENLISTING - I don't normally play a favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR - This mare ran her best Equibase speed fig in some time on the dirt in a route affair. There may be a performance bounce today. NOTHINS FREE - On a downward moving sequence. Equibase speed figures keep decreasing. If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 NIGHT WATCH to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

05/08/20, TAM, Race 4, 2.25 ET
05/08/20,TAM,4,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $12,500. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Bellarific 5-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. J 41.67 1.41/$1
098.64 10 Flaming Indy 5/2 Allen. Jr. R D Bowersock Maria FW 38.10 1.68/$1
098.29 4 Billysbirthdaygirl 4-1 Wales G McCarthy Brenda SEL 37.84 1.09/$1
097.80 1 Shanghai Kimmy 6-1 Suarez A Minshall Barbara J. 41.67 1.41/$1
097.00 8 Lincoln Center 6-1 Quinonez A Tomlinson Michael A. C 42.05 1.15/$1
096.34 7 Dramatone(b-) 12-1 Santos A Bennett Gerald S. T 40.86 1.03/$1
095.28 12 Blazing Diva 15-1 Mendez K Dye Steven 38.10 1.68/$1
095.03 3 Ridgelysredhot 12-1 Villa-Gomez H Potts Ron G. 37.84 1.09/$1
094.45 9 Stephanie's Melody 20-1 Almeida M Lanum Crystal 41.67 1.41/$1
094.18 6 Runfastbaby 20-1 Garcia W A Ralph Richard 41.67 1.41/$1
094.17 2 Sena the Duchess 20-1 Leon J A Wetherington Margaret 41.67 1.41/$1
094.09 11 Katie's Last Dance 15-1 Cotto. Jr. P L Ralph Richard 38.10 1.68/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

05/08/20, GP, Race 9, 5.19 ET
05/08/20,GP,9,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 8 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 7 Duellist 12-1 Juarez N O'Connor Matthew Brice TC 35.10 1.31/$1
096.81 2 Frank First 5/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Spatz Ronald B. J 39.27 1.38/$1
096.12 3 Flute Maker 4-1 Gaffalione T McPeek Kenneth G. EW 39.27 1.38/$1
096.09 6 Jesus' Team 6-1 Saez L D'Angelo Jose Francisc L 39.27 1.38/$1
094.06 8 Maturin 20-1 Reyes L Garcia Rodolfo F 26.81 1.09/$1
094.05 1 Dizzy Sight 3-1 Vasquez M A Swick Don 35.10 1.31/$1
093.94 5 Blueridge Mountain 8-1 Jaramillo E Eppler Mary E. S 26.81 1.09/$1
092.23 4 Smash 6-1 Zayas E J Alvarado Juan 39.27 1.38/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.84, ROI 1.08/$1
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 5/8/20

May 8, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Friday, May 8, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-All American Jewel; 4-A Beautiful Day; 7-Halfy

Forecast: The Friday opener is a grass grab bag for bottom-rung maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies. A Beautiful Day could find herself as the controlling speed from a comfortable draw in her first start at this level, and if she can sneak away early without undue pressure the daughter of Prospective might get very brave. On the other hand, she’s yet to show any resiliency when challenged in the final furlong, so while we’ll make her our top pick we’ll also protect in our rolling exotics using a couple of other contenders. All American Jewel is a nine-race maiden but finished third in her last pair at Tampa Bay Downs, most recently with a career top speed figure, so with another forward move today the Justin Phillip filly should be dangerous from off the pace. Halfy is a T. Pletcher dropper with room to step forward in just her third career outing. She didn’t get much of a trip when unplaced in a maiden $16,000 affair last month but retains L. Saez, and with a clean start and a ground-saving journey she has a chance to show her best stuff.
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RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Just Right Mike; 8-Chasing Artie; 12-Restored Order

Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs with three legitimate contenders based strictly on connections. Just Right Mike has the benefit of a prior run – he was third in his debut last month in what was a pretty quick race – and with that bit of experience behind him in the son of Cajun Breeze could step forward considerably for the sharp M. Yates barn. Chasing Artie has done some good work in the a.m. for W. Ward, including three successive bullet workouts, and while this Ken Ramsey homebred is bred to run long on the lawn the son of We Miss Artie appears to have pretty good speed, at the very least. Restored Order, originally on the also-eligible list, was re-entered tomorrow but as of this morning’s early scratch time remained in today’s race following three late scratches from within the body of the field. If he starts, he has to be considered a contender after breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat during the OBS March sale and then bringing $420,000 at auction. From the first crop Frosted, he’s a half-brother to the good California-based 3-year-old filly Der Lu and clearly has ability, though we’re not sure just how much early quickness he has. With L. Saez aboard and at 6-1 on the morning line for T. Pletcher, he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post 2:09 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Probably Grace; 2-Peace Control; 3-Sizzling Roma

Forecast: The main contention is this $8,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares is drawn inside, with strong preference on top to Probably Grace. The lightly-raced daughter of Congrats has been claimed three times in her five race career, most recently by trainer L. Rivelli, who had the 3-year-old filly for her first two starts. She earned a career top speed figure when easily handling a $6,250 field over this track and distance last month and should find this one-level class hike within her range, notwithstanding her late-running style coupled with her disadvantageous rail post position. V. Lebron, who just rode her to that easy score, stays aboard for a barn that he’s well-connected with. Peace Control beat a lesser field two runs back but then was overmatched vs. restricted (nw-3) $20,000 foes last time out when a distant fourth. he V. Barboza, Jr.-trained filly gets a positive jockey switch to E. Jaramillo and should find herself in a good stalking position throughout. Sizzling Roma is in good form but needs some help in the speed figure department. She’s been running in softer restricted (nw-3) claiming company and usually hits the board but needs better to beat this field. You can use as a back-up or a saver but not much more than that.
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RACE 4: Post 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Rags for Britches; 3-Mountain Breeze; 8-Jeeker Joe

Forecast: Here’s another difficult maiden claiming $12,500 turf affair, this one for older horses. Mountain Breeze was beaten by almost a sixteenth of a mile in his only outing last summer in straight maiden company when reasonably backed (6-1) and then disappeared. He returns in a soft race over a distance and surface that he’s bred to like with top jockey I. Ortiz, Jr., who rides a lot of live runners for the J. Kimmel barn, taking the call. There’s nothing fancy about the work tab but we have to think this son of First Dude is much better than his only outing shows. Jeeker Joe has the blinkers off angle that we like in his first outing since August while dropping to his lowest level ever. The son of Treasure Beach shows a short but noteworthy work pattern that includes a five furlong grass drill at Palm Meadows in :59 2/5, so the 4-year-old gelding could easily be a better type this time around for new connections. Rags for Britches is a 13-race maiden and clearly not one to trust, but this will be his first start since being gelded so the son of Union Rags has a right to display improved form. The connections don’t inspire confidence but based on speed figures he’s a fit.
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RACE 5: Post 3:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-R Boy Bode; 6-Kyle; 9-New York’s Finest

Forecast: Kyle tries grass for the first time in his 35-race career and, who knows, maybe he’ll like it. The 7-year-old gelding has plenty of speed and should appreciate this five furlong trip for the excellent trainer/jockey combo of C. David and M. A. Vasquez, and if he can transfer his dirt numbers to turf the can win this race at 4-1 on the morning line. R Boy Bode has good zip as well and has only one way to go from the rail, on or near the lead throughout. A five-furlong specialist (all three of his career victories have been accomplished at this trip), the son of Kantharos returns after a three month vacation in a logical spot for the high-percentage G. Baxter barn, which has super stats with layoff runners. The barn’s go-to” rider E. Jaramillo takes the call. New York’s Finest earned a giant number winning over this course and distance at this level three runs back. Far back in an off-the-grass sprint last time out, the son of City Zip appears capable of bouncing back with the return to his preferred surface. He retains L. Saez, and always has had a winning punch, with eight career scores from 23 stats, but he’ll need to overcome the extreme outside draw.
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RACE 6: Post 3:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Bardot; 7-Harmonic Thunder

Forecast: Bardot finished a respectable second in her debut for maiden $25,000, but instead of being protected on the raise the daughter of Candy Ride is dropped to the $16,000 in an obvious move to cull her from the stable. The T. Pletcher barn has done this a number of times in recent weeks with some success, so we suspect she’s in this race to win and be claimed. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she won’t be offering any real wagering value. Harmonic Thunder looks a bit intriguing for those trying to beat the favorite. The daughter of Honor Code is listed at 20-1 on the morning line but she’ll go way lower than that considering that this trainer/jockey combo (S. Joseph, Jr with T. Gaffalione) has connected at a 32% rate with a massive flat-bet profit at this meeting. She’s back on the main track and returning to a one-turn race, two changes that should bring out her best.
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RACE 7: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: X
Single: 8-Enlisting

Forecast: Enlisting has much in her favor in this $8,000 claiming one-turn miler for fillies and mares. Drawn perfectly outside for new trainer V. Barboza, Jr. (an absurdly strong 56% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle), the daughter of Candy Ride switches to the barn’s favorite rider, bug boy Torres, and projects to control the race flow while either on the lead or from a cozy stalking spot. A nearly five-length winner under these conditions in late March, she’s not being protected on the raise, which is concerning, but such a move from this stable is standard operating procedure. A very generous 2-1 on the morning line, she’ll no doubt go considerably lower on the tote. We’ll make her a short-priced, no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Mandate

Forecast: Mandate is improving with racing and is fresh from a convincing maiden $40,000 victory over this course in late March while earning a career-top speed figure. Protected today in a starters optional claimer, the son of Blame has the proper style for this seven and one-half furlong trip, and from his rail post he projects to inherit an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip. L. Suez, who was aboard him last time, opts for the “other” Pletcher in the race, Rhythm Section, so I. Ortiz, Jr. picks up the mount and, yeah, we can live with that. At 9/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Frank First; 5-Blueridge Mountain

Forecast: Blueridge Mountain look like a potentially good gamble at 8-1 on the morning line in in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming main track miler. The lightly-raced gelding tackles a considerably easier group than he’s been used to seeing in first-level allowance races and appears realistically spotted after a pair of recent dull performances going long on the lawn, conditions that really don’t suit him. He graduated in straight maiden company at this distance on dirt (actually, over a sloppy surface) last winter at Laurel Park and with the switch to the barn’s favorite jockey E. Jaramillo we’re expecting the son of Tapizar to run lights out. Frank First is reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. and is another exiting a tougher spot around two turns on grass. Like our top pick, this gelded son of Lea is most comfortable one-turning on dirt, and while not particular fast on numbers he does have the proper stalking style for the trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Blueridge Mountain.
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RACE 10: Post 5:25 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-R Happy Ending; 5-Lady Grace

Forecast: R Happy Ending, freshened since mid-February, was a solid third in a listed abbreviated turf sprint stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February and is realistically spotted in this $50,000 optional allowance claiming five furlong turf dash for fillies and mares. First or second in six of eight career starts over this course and distance, the genuine and consistent daughter of Prospective goes for high percentage connections and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip inside and then, assuming room develops, have her chance to wear down the leaders when it matters. She’s an excellent gambling price at 9/2 ln the morning line, but we suspect she’ll go lower. Lady Grace is another major player with excellent recent form and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Perfect in two starts this year following an extended vacation and never worse than second in four starts over the local lawn, the M. Casse-trained filly seems most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home. She’ll get that type of ride from T. Gaffalione.
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RACE 11: Post 6:19 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Ocean Fire; 11-Summer Shore

Forecast: The nightcap is a $40,000 maiden-claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares. Ocean Fire seems the logical top pick in her first start for a tag after finishing in the frame in five consecutive outings vs. straight maidens. The W. Mott-trained filly has a distinct edge in the speed figure department to go along with her favorable inside draw that guarantees an ideal, second flight, ground-saving trip. You could make a case that this drop into a seller is a bit suspicious and maybe it is, but the daughter of Animal Kingdom is a 4-year-old and it’s possible that her owner/breeder just wants her to finally win a race. Summer Shore is realistically spotted as a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn and may be the one to fear most at 4-1 on the morning line. The works at Palm Beach Downs look pretty good for this type of race mare, with the main jockey L. Saez aboard she has the credentials to be live and well-meant.
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FujitaPunter
Baseball : Taiwan CPBL 2020
Fubon Guardians – Uni Lions
Over 12.5

Baseball : South Korea KBO 2020
NC Dinos – LG Twins
NC Dinos
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/8

Fri May 08, 2020 8:08 am
Briella and Heir Ball came in second for us but we lost the other race. Today I have three picks from Gulfstream. Goodluck.

Race 1
#4 A Beautiful Day $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-1-2

Race 4
#9 Jeeker Joe $10 w/p/s

Race 8
#3 Montana Man $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-12-5
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