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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/7/20

 
Posted : May 7, 2020 8:23 am
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Miss Mac Price player drops off the claim for Landaeta, a low-profile barn but one that does have a win from three claims, and this miss has decent form against better, and a stalking gear in a race that could have a got pace; upset special.
#1 Take Charge Again Dicey ML favorite didn't break last time, was last-of-10 early, then rallied mildly to be a distant 3rd, and obviously with an alert beginning she's going to be a lot closer today, but she also has no margin for error either; trying to beat.
#3 Chic and Sexy Speedy filly really improved off the trainer change last time, when she dueled hard then held 2nd, while beating the chalk, but that gal should be pressing her today if she breaks, which won't help late for either; tread very lightly here.
Race Summary The price and the race flow should be right with the 6, not to mention the solid drop in class too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's likely to get overlooked, even though she has every right to make a big late dent against a group like this.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Heir Ball Deserving favorite was a close 2nd at the level on the drop last, just soundly beat her main rival, and doesn't meet any tough new shooters either; imposing.
#9 Majestic Maiara Stretch runner was 73-1 but 4th, but just 2 1/4 lengths behind the pick last time, and the race flow will flatter her style once again; could blow up your exotics.
#6 Fiber Optic The more logical EX partner was 3rd, 1 3/4 lengths behind the pick, the outside attack post helps, and he's now off the Maker claim (15%) too; clearly playable.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 5 but he just simply looks too good for this modest group, so an aggressive win and place bet at 2-1 or better makes sense, though you can get some built-in value by singling him to kick off the late Pk5, as that's not a move the betting public likes to make in the opening leg of a horizontal sequence, as there's a lot of mental strain about possibly being out after the first race, so you can maximize her there, and that will also allow for more coverage in the deeper ensuing races, since she looks to have this group in a bad spot.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Gilda F. Intriguing miss chased then held well to be 2nd last time, should get run off her feet early by all the speed signed on, which will help her settle and potentially trip out, and will offer plenty of value as well; can surprise in a race there for the taking.
#8 Worth Avenue The one to beat is much like the pick, in that she has a rating gear that will help her off the far turn, and she did improve off the Barboza claim last time when 2nd, but it's not like she's got a big margin for error, at a short price too; scary, but no lock.
#6 Nowitna River Closer is another who can pass horses in the lane, and while she was behind a few of these last time, the race flow here will be more to her liking, and the price will be a lot better than the 2-1 she just was; eligible to make a late dent through the lane.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a bunch of it here, and that should allow the 1 to sit and pounce, while getting first run on the chalk too, so give her a look in all the slots, box her in the EX with the 8, and use them both in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since they seem to be getting all the best of it in a race that looks destined to fall apart in deep stretch.
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Posted : May 7, 2020 8:26 am
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Shell Beach Party Owns a couple of pretty decent back turf sprints that might be competitive with these, and the presence of a couple of tough droppers might leave her at an overlaid number despite being 9/5 the last time she tried this trip with better.
#2 No No Nina Chased the pace and stopped when trying this trip last out with maiden special weight company, but this is a huge drop that figures to make her tough.
#6 Myfirstexwife Might be the right one after finishing second with better in those recent runs, but not sure what kind of price she's going to offer after being 9/5 with better the last time she sprinted on the turf.
Race Summary Shell Beach Party has back turf sprint runs that make her interesting with these, and after a couple of dull dirt tries, it'd be no surprise to see her wake up in a hurry on the grass.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Celtic Brotherhood Price won't be much today, but he owns good pace from the fence in a spot without a ton of other speed. If Saez gets him out of the gate, he may be gone.
#5 Victory Town May complete a chalky exacta today after running a couple of pretty good races on the dirt in recent starts. The top choice has more upside, but this guy has a real chance, too.
#7 Sandys Blaze Ran on with late interest locally back in September, but he doesn't get a really great race shape today and may be along too late for any serious award.
Race Summary Celtic Brotherhood can show speed from the rail, and that might be enough to handle these in a spot where there isn't a ton of chasing pace lined up and only one firster to potentially prompt the splits.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#6 Kitten's Clown Debuter gets Tyler up for this one and meets a pretty suspect field, even for this level. There isn't much to worry about on paper here, so he wont' have to be a star to score at first asking.
#12 Metcalf Wide draw is an issue, but he woke up in a hurry on the turf last out at 62/1, but the price probably will be a tenth of that today, so I'll let him beat me in a bad race.
#10 Champers Owns a couple of California races that would surely handle this group, but the form is awfully unreliable, so I would demand a fair number to dive in on this guy.
Race Summary Kitten's Clown gets one of those calls where he's the fresh face and none of those with experience really excite.
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Posted : May 7, 2020 8:27 am
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#4 Through The Fence Was close in all four races and was 3rd in his latest, which came after a year layoff; can improve in his 2nd back.
#6 WL Shezacrowdpleaser Ran a good 2nd, although no threat to the winner; can improve with the distance if he runs back to her last one.
#2 Ourblastfromthepast Has been off nearly a year and was 4th in a maiden race at Los Al in his last start; was probably in races that were too short and could appreciate the 440 yards.
Race Summary Through The Fence came off a long layoff with a good effort and should be difficult to run down at the end of his distance.

Remington Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 BP Fancy Lady Closed well for 3rd, beaten a half-length in her only start; won't need a lot of improvement to graduate from the maiden ranks.
#8 Cuz Heres Ur Sign Imprved to 3rd after a bad debut at a higher level; continued career trajectory would make her tough.
#5 Teton Improved in her 2nd career start and the connections have been warm lately; fits well here.
Race Summary BP Fancy Lady ran a good race on debut and a good break and straight course should get her to the winner's circle.

Remington Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Hes Reckless Had an awful trip in a futurity trial and can only improve from that debut debacle; looks ready to recover and can be very tough in this one.
#3 Bv Thisgirlsonfire Ran on well for 3rd in a futurity trial in her only start and can make a good run; strong contender.
#1 Top Dollar Had a good recent workout and lands in a good spot for his debut; can be dangerous along the rail.
Race Summary Hes Reckless's 1st one is a throw up, since he lost all chance at the start; well-bred colt and be a strong player here.
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Posted : May 7, 2020 8:27 am
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $10300 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 CATCHIN TRAIN B 5/2

# 3 CANDY SIGN 10/1

# 7 BETTER CHECK MY FIRE 4/1

I've got to go with CATCHIN TRAIN B. This gelding looks good for this race since Willis has a sharp win percent with horses going this distance. Earned a solid speed figure last time out. Strong average speed figures in short races make this racer a definite contender. CANDY SIGN - Valdivia has this filly moving well and is a respectable selection based on the very strong speed figures put up in short races recently. Some very strong figures have been posted by this trainer's entrants travelling at this distance and surface. BETTER CHECK MY FIRE - Should definitely be carefully examined in this event if only for the quite good Equibase speed fig garnered in the last contest.
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Posted : May 7, 2020 11:58 am
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

05/07/20, GP, Race 9, 5.19 ET
05/07/20,GP,9,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $31,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since April 7 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $35,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 10 Mike's Girl 9/2 Zayas E J Gargan Danny TFE 40.96 1.52/$1
098.20 3 Bean Counter 2-1 Rosario J Pletcher Todd A. L 31.38 1.05/$1
098.17 7 Sassy Justice 8-1 Gaffalione T Maker Michael J. SW 36.84 1.49/$1
098.14 2 Lido Key 6-1 Ortiz. Jr. I McPeek Kenneth G. J 31.38 1.05/$1
097.09 4 Champagne Horizon 6-1 Vasquez M A Cibelli Jane C 32.32 1.10/$1
097.02 6 Augusta Moon 6-1 Saez L Crichton Rohan 31.38 1.05/$1
095.16 5 Avenida Manana 8-1 Bravo J Hess. Jr. Robert B. 31.38 1.05/$1
093.80 8 Big Tina 12-1 Jaramillo E De La Cerda Armando 31.38 1.05/$1
093.48 1 Sammie Sunshine 6-1 Zayas E J Lerman Michael 31.38 1.05/$1
089.51 9 Champagne Bliss 20-1 Reyes L Nihei Michelle 31.38 1.05/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.78/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 10 Mike's Girl 9/2 Zayas E J Gargan Danny TFE 33.33 1.10/$1
099.19 3 Bean Counter 2-1 Rosario J Pletcher Todd A. L 33.33 1.10/$1
098.33 7 Sassy Justice 8-1 Gaffalione T Maker Michael J. SW 33.33 1.10/$1
098.19 4 Champagne Horizon 6-1 Vasquez M A Cibelli Jane C 33.33 1.10/$1
098.15 2 Lido Key 6-1 Ortiz. Jr. I McPeek Kenneth G. J 35.10 1.31/$1
096.86 6 Augusta Moon 6-1 Saez L Crichton Rohan 33.33 1.10/$1
094.47 1 Sammie Sunshine 6-1 Zayas E J Lerman Michael 35.10 1.31/$1
094.20 5 Avenida Manana 8-1 Bravo J Hess. Jr. Robert B. 33.33 1.10/$1
091.12 8 Big Tina 12-1 Jaramillo E De La Cerda Armando 33.33 1.10/$1
089.55 9 Champagne Bliss 20-1 Reyes L Nihei Michelle 33.33 1.10/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.84, ROI 1.08/$1
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Posted : May 7, 2020 11:58 am
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/7

Thu May 07, 2020 7:54 am
Dynaform comes in second and we nail the 9-6 exacta and it paid $48.40. Donnie Brasco came in 3rd in the first but Stormy D did nothing in race 5. Today I have three from Gulfstream. Good luck.

Race 1
#9 Party Dress $5 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-6-2

Race 2
#7 Briella $10 w/p/s

Race 7
#5 Heir Ball $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-6-4
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Posted : May 7, 2020 11:59 am
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