Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 5/6/20

ESL Road to Rio: ORDER +1.5 v Renegades @ 2.176/+118 (3 Units)
ESL Road to Rio: ORDER ML v Renegades @ 5.60/+460 (0.5 Unit)
-Don't understand this line one bit. Sure Renegades is the second best Aussie team behind 100 Thieves but how much weight does that really hold? ORDER still has the likes of Rickeh, USTILO, and aliStair on their roster all of who are top AU talent. Throw in a couple young hungry players like Valiance and J1rah and I don't understand one bit why this line is set this way. I think this should be WAY down in the realm of ORDER +200 ML

ESL Road to Rio: Vitality -1.5 v ENCE @ 2.70/+170 (3 Units)
-Playing bigger than usual for odds like this but I LOVE the upside this play has. Yes, Vitality have looked shaky at times but the way the map pool plays out for these two teams sets up such a good opportunity for Vitality to 2-0 this series. The absolute crutch for ENCE since losing Aleksib has been one map: Train. Conveniently, that's the one map that Vitality ban no matter the opponent. Factor in ENCE permabanning a weaker-ish map for Vitality in Vertigo and we have 5 remaining maps with Mirage/Inferno/Nuke/Overpass/Dust2. All of which I favor Vitality on pretty heavily. Also a very favorable matchup in the AWPing department with ZywOo facing up against allu. Shox has been playing very well and misutaaa is starting to fit into this lineup... Vitality 2-0 this FAR more often than the odds imply (37%)

LootLeague: Nordavind ML v GODSENT @ 2.27/+127 (2.5 Units)
-Another mismatch in terms of motivation to me. You have one team who is starting to find a groove and gel together with Nordavind going up against another team that can't seem to close out any match and has a clear lack of cohesion in the late round calls with GODSENT. Couple that with the fact that GODSENT are now falling in the Road to Rio standings and have a HUGE match on Friday against mousesports, I doubt their heads will be fully in this one. No respectable team at this level blatantly throws but there's no disputing they're going to have a lack of motivation for this match compared to their do or die game on Friday versus a far more intimidating opponent. Wouldn't be surprised if they penetrate off this game and go start to prep for Mouz right after it.

BLAST Rising: Apeks ML v Japaleno @ 1.888/-113 (2 Units)
-Those who've been around for months know how shit this Japaleno team is. Decent names on the roster but have forever just ran around the map and hoped for the best it seems. Maybe that'll change, but I'll bet against it not having changed too much. Apeks have been playing match after match after match and getting a ton of reps in with one another and got dennis standing in for them with adds a ton of veteran leadership if things start to go wrong.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#7 Wowza Man Turf runner has some poor main track form showing, but he's really picked up his game in his two starts for Morrow, drops in class, and is likely a better horse than he was then; look out.
#4 Happy Guy Versatile sort got run off his feet a bit last time but ran on well to be 2nd, and aside from the wide dud two-back, his form has been very solid, if underwhelming; seems the one to beat.
#5 Alvarado Homebred goes for a sharp Caruso barn, and while it's 0-for-8 with firsters, there's a slew of works here, and, as important as anything, the rest of these aren't much; would be no surprise.
Race Summary There's little doubt the pick has been better on the grass, but he also seems to be a new horse since the barn switch too, which means he might be ready to run a lot better on dirt this time, so play him to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as he won't have to freak to handle a crew that is extremely modest on paper.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Gogo Shoes Heavy hitter went across the state to be 4th to a repeat winner at GP, but she's back with friends here, drew well to be outside the chalk, and will be a better price too; love her chances here.
#3 Hopeful Growth The chalk was a fine 2nd in her return from a long break, and first against winners too, so she could be tighter here, but the pick will be on her from the outside the entire way; second-best.
#7 Judy's Shoes Stalker will get overlooked but her last dirt race stacks up nicely with the top pair, and if they hook up early and often this miss will be there to take advantage off the far turn; worth a look.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 6 but they figure to bet the 3 hard, so that 5-2 ML may just stick, and therefore would warrant and aggressive win and place bet, though her real value comes in the early Pk4, and kicking off the Pk5 as well, as you can single her to maximize value, which would also give you more room to maneuver in the deeper surrounding legs, as she looks primed in this spot.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 California Sun Intriguing returnee hasn't been out since September and could need this, and he was eased on the dirt when last seen, but the turf romp two-back was big, his speed will play here too, and he returns as a first-time gelding as well; thinking he's live.
#6 Dynaform The obvious one to beat looked good winning at the level last time and now meets a weaker crew, so a repeat wins this, and his three runs against similar have all been solid, so there's no reason to think he regresses today; will be a real handful.
#7 Violator Stiff class dropper didn't fire last time but wasn't far back of the pick when 4th two-back, figures to get a more patient ride here too, which will have him just off the speed and ready to pounce when they exit the far turn; price players will land here.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 8, as you'd like to see him live and taking money if he's ready, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, though you'll get some guaranteed value by using him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since that turf win last year would make him a big player here, and in the 6-1 range you'd be getting the right risk-reward to find out if he's still got it.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Polly Tiz Can use her tactical speed to find a good spot in a race without a ton of early speed, and even if the stretchout players want to take a shot for the front, she can settle a bit and still finish.
#8 Keena Brings solid sprint form to this one, but she has so far been a one-turn runner, and I'd be hesitant to take a short number to find out how she handles this right now.
#2 Seeing Double Ran a good one in that minor stakes try last out, and she's just quick enough early to find a decent spot and track the pace.
Race Summary Polly Tiz can get the right kind of trip after outrunning her 14/1 price last time out. A couple of the logical players have questions to answers, I'll take a mid-range price swing here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Ransomed Worth a little look here in a spot with a decent bit of early speed, as she has some ability to settle off the splits and let the pace players run their races before pouncing.
#5 Drip Brew May honestly not mind much if she takes early heat after staying on to score through a :44.4 split last out. The main worry is that she only has that one gear -- go. If the other pace can bother her enough early, she's vulnerable late.
#1 Ima Discreet Lady Will have to work out a trip from the fence, but if she does get the right run, she's there. Her early pace keeps her close, but she can tuck in behind the battling leaders and wait for a seam turning for home.
Race Summary Ransomed should be a fair price in this one, and the hope is that she's going to get a first-over kind of trip here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Lawton Owns a high enough ceiling to get the job done with these, and he can find the right kind of spot while spying the early splits.
#6 Oil Money Repeat of that last one would probably do the trick, but remember he was 18/1 that day and doesn't often run that big. Demand a fair price to find out if he can hold that form.
#5 Drc All Inclusive Might get forced into a finishing trip in a spot where he's probably not quite quick enough to keep up in the early going, but that may not be a bad thing if the pace heats up and he's one of the few left running late.
Race Summary Lawton can finish from off the speed, and that should serve him well in this group where Oil Money figures to have some company at a much shorter price than he offered when scoring last out.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Retrofit Has put down some extremely fast times going 4 furlongs and looks to be too much for these challengers.
#6 Free Music Can get a good trip from the outside, should be able to stay in range and should be able to hold on for a piece of this.
#5 Beta Capo Song Was 3rd to the top choice two back and seems to do his best going a half-mile; rider Martinez always seems to be a big threat.
Race Summary Retrofit is outstanding at the shorter distances and is clearly the one to beat here; Mitchell stable has had an outstanding season and has a great chance to continue that.

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Bell Ringer Improved position to 2nd in his 1st over this track and is likely to improve; ran in some tough races at Houston, including race he won by 10 on the grass. Has the class to prevail.
#3 Eastside Boy Ran evenly in his 1st after shipping in from Fair Grounds; capable of a big effort in this N2L spot.
#1 Garbar Boy Tired in his 1st over the local strip and likely will improve in his return; he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last July and didn't fare well at Tampa; chance for piece of the pie today.
Race Summary Bell Ringer held on for the runner-up spot last out and probably needed that one on the bull ring; sitting on a big effort here.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Phlash Drive Was 4 for 4, including in the Ogataul Stakes two back and then tired badly going long vs open company; back to state-breds in a sprint and can get back to winning ways.
#5 Love At Night Mare tired in the Runza Stakes after winning the Bold Accent and Orphan Kist Stakes in her 1st two of the year; is extremely fast and will be trouble for the males if she gets clear on the front end.
#3 Be My Shadow Ran an even 4th in an open optional-claiming race last out and will pick up a lot of pieces; the biggest threat if pacesetters fail.
Race Summary Phlash Drive suffered defeat for the 1st time in his latest; he gets back to a sprint and can be a strong player from the start.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Handicap - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17050 Class Rating: 98

FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NO ENTRY FEE. NO NOMINATION FEE. WEIGHTS TO BE ASSIGNED AT THE DRAW. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 ARI GIA 7/2

# 5 DRIP BREW 3/1

# 6 TEE EM EYE 5/2

My selection for this event is ARI GIA. Silva has a solid 31 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Eikleberry will almost certainly be able to get this mare to break out sharply in this contest. Should keep the good string of finish positions intact this time out. DRIP BREW - Looks like a sound candidate for the exotics. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. TEE EM EYE - Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. She has posted decent numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses in this race.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

05/06/20, TAM, Race 6, 3.30 ET
05/06/20,TAM,6,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:41:04 CLAIMING. Purse $10,300. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 6 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Cpl. Dionicio 7/2 Centeno D Bennett Gerald S. TFEL 37.84 1.09/$1
097.57 10 What a Hoot 4-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. J 37.84 1.09/$1
096.39 11 Sunshines Out 6-1 Mendez K Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo 38.89 1.38/$1
096.29 9 Osvaldo 6-1 Allen. Jr. R D Munoz Carlos W 38.89 1.38/$1
095.20 6 Fledermaus 10-1 Mena R Hemingway Ian 37.84 1.09/$1
094.95 2 Circle Away 5-1 Almeida M Bordis Robert W. S 38.89 1.38/$1
094.83 1 Upper Crown 10-1 Wales G Dobber Arnoud W. 38.89 1.38/$1
094.19 5 American River (VEN) 8-1 Suarez A McGoey Monica 38.89 1.38/$1
093.94 8 Nicole Munnings 20-1 Herrera J R Machado Antonio 38.89 1.38/$1
092.80 7 Big Rig 15-1 Villa-Gomez H Potts Ron G. 38.89 1.38/$1
090.27 3 America's Simmard 20-1 Romero J Parra Hernan C 38.89 1.38/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Fonner Park - Race #6 - Post: 6:15pm - Claiming - 4.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,700 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 FAMILY CODE (ML=5/1)
#4 TOPOFTHEMOUNTAIN (ML=4/1)

FAMILY CODE - Generally, I don't play a pony off morning drills alone, but when I see a gelding work at the same distance or longer than a race he's entered in, I become interested. Trainer Lemburg moves this thoroughbred to a lower level to face a lower class field. Look for a sharp race in this race. Trainer, Lemburg, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. TOPOFTHEMOUNTAIN - Ness brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this hot gelding. This jockey and trainer's equines have been producing a beneficial return on investment. Just look at his recent speed fig, 68. That one fits well in this bunch. Have to believe this pace horse has a nice chance on this tight track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DION (ML=5/2), #6 MY LADY J (ML=6/1), #7 DRAMA COACH (ML=8/1),

DION - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better fig than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint. MY LADY J - Improbable for this participant to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint affair. DRAMA COACH - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line of 8/1. Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint race to be worth the risk at nominal odds in a sprint.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - FAMILY CODE - On today's track this gelding should do very well, given his past achievements on grass.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 FAMILY CODE on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
3 with 4 with [1,2,7] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $3700 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 DION 5/2

# 3 FAMILY CODE 5/1

# 5 DANCE EVEN 12/1

I've got to go with DION. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 71 Equibase speed fig which is one of the most respectable in this group of horses in this race. Has ran well in dirt sprint races. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last race. FAMILY CODE - His 80 average has this gelding with among the most favorable speed figs for this race. In this field, this horse is ranked high in earnings per start in dirt sprint races. DANCE EVEN - Jones is trying to score with this entrant by bringing him back so quickly. Meeting a much less demanding bunch than last time out.
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