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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 5/3/20

 
Posted : May 3, 2020 9:21 am
(@shazman)
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 5/3/20

May 3, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Sunday, May 3, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Etana

Forecast: Etana is even money on the morning line and really should handle this modest $12,500 maiden claiming field after dropping drastically into a seller for the first time from straight maiden company. She actually finished first in a race last November at Laurel but was disqualified. Removing blinkers, turning back to a one turn mile and switching to I. Ortiz, Jr, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained sophomore filly should be along in time as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:14 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Candy Crushem

Forecast: Here’s another unplayable race, a one-turn mile bottom-rung $6,250 claimer featuring another even money morning line favorite, Candy Crushem. The Twirling Candy gelding, third in a pair of tougher $12,500 recent races while earning solid speed figures, is reunited with I. Ortiz, Jr. but this class drop is more than suspicious, especially from a low profile outfit, and at a short price there’s no value to be found. You can use him a short price rolling exotic single or better yet, simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Joe Benjamin; 7-Budget Buster

Forecast: Joe Benjamin, in the frame in his last three with rising speed figures in each of his four career starts, appears ready to earn his diploma despite being raised from the maiden $20,000 ranks to the $32,000 level. The Hard Spun colt, a sharp runner-up while well clear of the rest last time out, is assured a good ground-saving, second flight trip from his rail post position, switches to E. Jaramillo, and offers a bit of value at 9/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Budget Buster already has had eight chances without breaking through though he’s hit the board six times and just finished a solid second vs. similar last month with a career top speed figure. He’s still slower on figures than our top pick, so we’ll include him on our ticket as a back-up or a saver but the main push goes to Joe Benjamin.
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RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Competitive Saint; 6-Getthe Muny Bernie; 8-Thrill Ride

Forecast: Older maidens sprint six furlongs in the fourth race with several first-timers appearing to have the credentials to make some serious noise. Getthe Muny Bernie finally makes it to the races at age four for trainer S. Joseph Jr and draws the barn’s main guy T. Gaffalione. The son of Munnings has winning connections and a work tab at Gulfstream Park West that includes a bullet five furlong drill in 1:00 flat, the fastest of nine, and a bullet half mile gate work in :48 flat, best of 41 for the distance. You’d have to think he’s well-meant at 7/2 on the morning line. Competitive Spirit breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the 2019, OBS March sale while carrying his head a bit high but displaying good speed and power. The son of Competitive Edge hails from a barn that has superior stats with first-time starters and shows a healthy if unspectacular series of workouts at Palm Meadows that should have him fit enough first crack out of the box. The G. Weaver-trained colt is interesting at 8-1 on the morning line. Thrill Ride has done some good work in the a.m. for I. Wilkes and is worth a close look as well. The son of Candy Ride worked a half in 47 1/5 at Palm Meadows last month, the fastest of 16 for the distance after shipping in from Lambholm South Training Center. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 5: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Conquer; 10-Wild One Forever; 121-Poppy’s Destiny

Forecast: The fifth race is a messy five furlong turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers. We’ll go three-deep in a wide open affair and hope to get by. Conquer has the route-to-sprint angle that we like plus a logical class drop from $25,000 while retaining L. Saez. The son of Congrats has plenty of speed and at 6-1 on the morning line and at an abbreviated sprint distance that he should like the L. Pilotti-trained colt seems as good as any. Wild One Forever, fourth in his last pair vs. stronger, is a fit on numbers and should be a late threat in a race in which the speed types may be suspect under pressure. Poppy’s Destiny gets the worst of the draw but in his second off a layoff, his first on grass, and with the switch to E. Zayas, the son of Orb may offer some good value at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Tournesol; 7-Joyous Times

Forecast: Tournesol lost all chance when clipping heels at the head of the lane in a similar starter’s optional claimer over this course and distance last time out but with the switch to T. Gaffalione and good racing luck the daughter of Karakontie should be capable of regaining her winning form. Two runs back she finished a solid third in an overnight stakes race and blew out recently in a sharp :47 1/5 seconds, the seventh fastest of 112 for the distance. Days of Spring looked pretty good winning a $20,000 claimer over this course last month while earning a good figure, and today goes for new connections while being protected on the raise. She’s a fit on figures and will be running on strongly late. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Tournesol.
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RACE 7: Post 3:22 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Token

Forecast: Token finished second in a fast, highly-rated two-turn main track maiden affair last month, backs up to a one-turn mile today, switches to T. Gaffalione, and looks well-placed to earn her diploma. The daughter of Curlin shows rising speed figures with every outing and has the perfect stalking style for this distance. At 8/5 on the morning line, the the W. Mott-trained filly is a logical short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: B
Single: 6-Moon Eyes

Forecast: Today’s eighth race is a $12,500 claiming scramble for fillies and mares over a mile on grass. Rather than spread the race, we’ll take a stand and hope to be right. Moon Eyes switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider I. Ortiz, Jr. and stretches out to two-turns for the first time. If the daughter of Kantharos is ever going to stay this trip it probably will be in her first try and based on the projected race flow she seems very likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed for a barn that has good stats with stretch-out plays. At 7/2 on the morning line, the M. Maker-trained filly is a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: B
Single: 6-Boerne

Forecast: Boerne seeks her third straight score and this time has the luxury of a comfortable outside draw. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and we suspect she’ll go lower based on her proven ability at this extended sprint trip and the option that E. Zayas will have to either pop and go or stalk and pounce, though we suspect he won’t be waiting around for anybody. The daughter of Fed Biz is facing tougher foes today but should be up to the task as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 5:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Souper Courage; 3-Devoted Kitten; 4-Machiavelli

Forecast: The three main players in this $20,000 turf claimer exit the same race, the April 12 event over this course and distance at this level that was won by Zippy. Souper Courage finished second in that race after moving up midway (too soon?) to hit the front and take a clear lead in mid-stretch, only to be worn down late. He’s drawn nicely inside, should enjoy a ground-saving trip, and can win with patient handling. Devoted Kitten, a closing third in that race, is lightly-raced (eight starts) with room for a bit of improvement. He’s drawn much better today and with some help up front should be dangerous from off the pace. Machiavelli is solid in the speed figure department, is another that gets a better draw today, and retains E. Zayas, who knows him well. He’s a late threat at 6-1 on the morning line and at that price is worth including.
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RACE 11: Post 5:24 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Aurelia Garland

Forecast: Aurelia Garland was very impressive winning her debut when trained by W. Ward early in her two-year-old season, was subsequently entered in the Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga two months later but had to be scratched and turned out. She returns for new connections off a long layoff while facing some seasoned older sprinters in this first-level allowance dash. There may be a concern that the daughter of Constitution now is being trained by R. Brisset, whose record with comebackers is poor, but In viewing a couple of her recent workouts on xbtv.com she appears to be returning as well as she left, her modest workout times notwithstanding. A quick-action, athletic filly with an economical stride, she strikes us as one that probably doesn’t need a lot to get fit, so at 4-1 on the morning line with L. Saez taking the call, we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single while keeping our fingers crossed that she leaves cleanly from her inside draw.
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RACE 12: Post 6:29 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Till the End; 5-Keep Quiet; 10-Bourbon in May

Forecast: The Sunday nightcap is a $16,000 turf claimer over nine furlongs. Bourbon in May is the 9/5 morning line favorite while dropping drastically in class from a first-level allowance event in yet another “cleaning house” maneuver by T. Pletcher. The son of More Than Ready makes a major switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., has good consistent speed figures that are better than par for the level, and has been first or second in eight of 11 career starts. If he has at least one good one left, he’ll beat this field. Fair Grounds invader Keep Quiet, freshened for a couple of months and now in the R. B. Hess, Jr. barn, is another taking a significant class drop and should make his presence felt from a second flight, stalking position. With three career wins and 11 seconds and thirds, he may not be one to count on, but at this level he could get a confidence boost. Till the End returns to his claim level, should be forwardly placed from his favorable inside draw, and has three prior wins over the local lawn. He’ got a chance to at least hit the board at 6-1 on the morning line.
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Posted : May 3, 2020 9:22 am
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Competitive Spirit Weaver firster goes for a 21% debut barn that is having a banner year, shows a slew of works, meets a modest crew of proven runners, and should offer some value; thinking he's live.
#6 Getthe Muny Bernie Fellow firster starts for Joseph (14% on debut), is another with several works showing, many of them very snappy, and lure main man Gaffalione (33% with Joseph) as well; huge chance.
#2 Sir Kahn Tricky read was a distant 3rd to a next-out stakes winner last time, while earning a huge figure too, so if he doesn't bounce he wins, but that's a big if off that career-best run; mixed signals.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 3, as you'd like to see him live and taking money, and if that's the case he can be played in all the slots, though you'll get some guaranteed value by using him in the early Pk5/Pk4, since he looks primed and ready to roll for a barn having a huge year.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 For Kicks Price player has been running in fast races at the level while coming up a bit short, but drew well, and should be laying closer early in what looks like a relatively paceless race; upset special.
#6 Moon Eyes Stretch out sprinter has been laying midpack going shorter, and with Irad up he may put this one on the engine, though at 1-for-13 she's tough to trust and will be overbet; second-best.
#5 Henny's Treasure Stretch runner drops slightly in class and has the best figures here, but has no early speed, so the pace won't flatter her, and she's another at 1-for-15 who will be an underlay; tread lightly.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 3, who should also like this crew a bit better than the ones she's been facing, and the post will help her too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since she could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would knock a lot of tickets out right off the bat.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#6 Fukairah Stalker catches a field loaded with speed, will like getting back to the main track, and also out of the stakes ranks, so on the drop, with a very positive race flow, and a nice price in the offing, she looks like she's got a lot going for her; mows them down in the lane.
#10 Flashing Diamond Dangerous sort has been given enough time to seemingly recover from a fast 4th when last seen, did well to draw outside the other speed, and has a hint of a rating gear as well, though chasing early and holding on late won't be easy; underlaid contender.
#1 Aurelia Garland Speedster was bet like a good thing on debut and won off impressively, but that was some 366 days ago, so what you get here, while facing older and winners, is a guess, and the fact Brisset is 0-for-17 off this elongated break doesn't ease the concerns; tabbing today.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should help the chances of the 6 while hurting those of a lot of the others here, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she should be a solid price, and this is a tough race to begin with, which means a win in the 6-1 range would knock a lot of tickets out of both sequences.
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Posted : May 3, 2020 9:23 am
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#10 Trap Girl Taking a total swing in a bad race, but the two potential pace players both tend to quit hard late, and this one might be just quick enough to get towed along behind them and accidentally wind up in the right place at the right time. Price should be massive, so the investment doesn't have to be big.
#2 America's Queen Perhaps she can stay on better while cutting back to this 6f trip, but it's tough to have a ton of confidence that she'll suddenly finish a race. Wouldn't be a shock on the front end, but she's a pass for me.
#5 Foot Rub Love Might get a similar trip to the top choice here but at a much shorter price. She looks like the one to beat, but she'll be a short price and has still only hit the board once in 11 career tries, so she's not overflowing with good excuses at this point.
Race Summary Trap Girl should be a gigantic number on the tote, and she showed just a touch of early interest on the cutback last time out. If the speed that typically quits does so again here, she might luck into a good run.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 All Others Follow Debuter brings a massive European pedigree to this for Chad Brown, and this doesn't feel like a particularly deep cast she's meeting at first asking.
#12 Windfall Profit Was a bit more tactical off soft splits last out, but she's going to have to work out a trip from the high draw in this one behind what figure to be more honest splits this time around.
#1 Pure Rhythm Showed some really solid pace in the debut run before tiring, and she should be able to find the lead today from the inside.
Race Summary All Others Follow is bred to love the grass, and she lands in a very winnable spot for this debut run out of the always tough Brown barn.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 Large Gets Lasix today after running fourth with blinkers in a pretty decent race last time out. Something like his last would probably do the trick.
#5 Tithed Gets into the softest spot he has seen in his career, but he's very one-paced. Sure, he can win this on the drop, but I wouldn't want anything to do with him at something like the 5/2 ML price.
#9 The Equinest Stopped late last out and returns with Lasix, so there's a chance he'll be able to flash that tactical pace and sustain it better this time around.
Race Summary Large should be tough here with a pretty good set of races to his credit so far, and the addition of Lasix might make him the right one today.
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Posted : May 3, 2020 9:23 am
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#10 Freaky Flash Drops out of tougher maiden races drops into a soft spot; ready to win.
#9 Flaming Title Was 4th two back and has had excuses; has trained well and fits with these.
#5 Corona Chrome Lost a photo last out and takes a step up in class; on the board in four of his last five.
Race Summary Freaky Flash tired last time but was 2nd two back and looks solid in this spot.

Remington Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Lethal Moon Drops to his lowest level and can wake up in this spot; troubled trips in his last two and can make a solid run along the rail.
#5 Ask Me Now I Know Tied last time in his 1st of the Remington season after picking up a win at Louisiana Downs; drops in class.
#2 A Kool Injun Lost a photo last out and a similar perfect can earn him a piece of this.
Race Summary Lethal Moon was eliminated early vs. better company and can score with a clean run inside.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Juanells Fireball Has kept good company and broke her maiden over this strip last year; drops to his lowest level and can improve.
#7 Hr Desirable Improved to 4th in his 1st of the year and is like to improve; graded stakes placed last year and will get his share of support.
#5 Eye Am A Fancy Pyc Was unplaced in a Grade 3 to end 2019 at Will Rogers Downs and won two straight at Remington earlier in the year; can be a factor in his 1st of the year.
Race Summary Juanells Fireball has been in good races was sharp here last year and can run well with a clean trip in this one.
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Posted : May 3, 2020 9:24 am
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