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Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 5/2/20

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/2/20

 
Posted : May 2, 2020 8:52 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57396
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Horse Races Today: Saturday's Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park Analysis & Odds
May 1, 2020
By Mike Dempsey

Derby Day is here!

Okay, well not that Derby. However, we do have a blockbuster card at Oaklawn Park which features not one, but two Derbies. The Arkansas Derby (G1) has been split into two divisions and will go off as the 11th and 13th races on today’s 14-race card.

Each race drew 11 but after scratches we have nine in each division. There is $500,000 up for grabs along with 170 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1), which is now going to be held on the first Saturday of September.

Yesterday was supposed to be Kentucky Oaks Day, but instead we had the Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park which drew a field of 14 three-year-old fillies and is a qualifying race for the Oaks.

Venetian Harbor was hammered down to the favorite as my fourth choice, and we got our second choice Swiss Skydiver home paying $34.20. If you played the exacta you were awarded with a hefty $96.80, not bad with the chalk landing second.

Yes, I will not be wearing a fedora or drinking Mint Juleps this afternoon, but there is a ton of great betting races to sink our teeth into. My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 12 strongest plays from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.

Fox Sports 1 will cover the card from Oaklawn Park from 1:00 to 8:00 ET. In addition, the NBC Sports Network picks up the action today from 6:00 to 8:00 ET, simulcasting the TVG Network. NBC will have three hours of coverage featuring classic Kentucky Derbies and televising a “Virtual Kentucky Derby” with the lineup consisting of the 13 Triple Crown winners.

Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 5/2
GP Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:45 ET)
#10 Hero d'Oro 9-2
#7 East Lex 6-1
#5 Turn of Events 5-2
#8 Lascari 12-1

Analysis: Hero d'Oro gets another look here after a disappointing 10th place finish in his debut at 7-1 in a field of 12 here on the main track. The colt was a $1.2 million purchase, by Medaglia d'Oro out of a FuPeg mare that has dropped four winners and three have won on turf and two are stakes winners, top earner Annulment ($299,903). Brown hits at a 35% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens. The colt sports a strong of works on turf at Payson since his debut. The barn is 26% winners with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf.

East Lex returns off a 2 1/2-month break after a third last out at Fair Grounds in his second career start and first on turf. Five have come out of that race to run back with one next out winner. The Maker trainee is out of a Stormy Atlantic mare that has dropped two other foals to race, no winners to date. She draws a better post here after having to break from the 14 post last out. He figures to move forward off his last effort and will be a fair price in this spot.
Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day - 5/2
GP Race 9 The Honey Ryder (4:53 ET)
#2 Highland Glory 9-2
#4 Micheline 15-1
#1 Envoutante 8-5
#10 Ivyetsu 12-1

Analysis: Highland Glory had a tough spot last out in the Sanibel Island and came with a good late rally while drifting out late to get up and win by a neck in her first start against winners and second trip on turf. She graduated on grass here two back going a mile in her third career start. Her first two starts came on dirt. In her debut she was second behind Wicked Whisper at Saratoga, that filly winning the Frizette (G1) in her next start. Second out our top pick was fourth behind repeat winner Maedean, who won the Tempted in her next start and the runner up Water White won the Busher in her most recent outing. The Tagg trainee makes her second start off a 2 1/2-month break and draws a better spot. She has faced some quality competition and still looks as if she has some upside. She is a half to turf stakes winner Highland Sky ($725,494).

Micheline drew the 12 post last out in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, stalked the early pace, came with a four wide bid and weakened to finish seventh. She was a good second two back in the Sweet Chant (G3) here going a mile over good ground. The winner of that race was Cheermeister, who returned to win the Herecomesthebride (G3) and then miss in the Sanibel Island by a neck. She is capable of better than her last outing and her 15-1 morning line looks generous.
Oaklawn Park Featured Race of the Day - 5/2
OP Race 13 The Arkansas Derby G1 (6:43 CT)
#7 Silver Prospector 10-1
#5 Nadal 5-2
#10 Farmington Road 12-1
#11 Wells Bayou 7-2

Analysis: Silver Prospector caught a sloppy track last out in the Rebel (G2) where is was caught in a bit tight going into the first turn, saved some ground but then found some traffic and then was bothered slightly in the stretch in a sixth place finish. He won the Southwest (G3) two back and I thought he was going to give Nadal a run for his money last out. This guy won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in the slop four back and is capable of much better than his last effort. he has a shot of turning the tables here on the stretch out to nine furlongs and the 10-1 morning line looks generous.

Nadal is perfect in three starts, dueling for the early lead and finishing gamely to win the Rebel last out in his local debut and first start around two turns. He broke his maiden going 6 1/2 and then won the San Vicente (G2) at seven furlongs. He has plenty of pedigree to handle nine furlongs, by Blame out of a Pulpit mare. Baffert has won this race twice including with American Pharoah in 2015. The strategy figures to be to just send him. There are several foes in here that have some early zip that could makes this tough for him. The 5-2 looks fair but this guy seems likely to go off shorter.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #8 Lascari 12-1
R3: #6 Cornbred Kingdom 15-1
R3: #3 Rag Tag 12-1
R5: #6 Jamaican 12-1
R8: #1 Just for One Day 10-1
R9: #4 Micheline 15-1
R9: #10 Ivyetsu 12-1
R10: #8 Royal Squeeze 10-1
R11: #9 Don Juan Kitten 15-1
R12: #6 Paint the Corners 8-1

 
Posted : May 2, 2020 8:57 am
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Saturday's Best Bet: Seducer an enticing contender in Honey Ryder
By Jarrod Horak May 2, 2020

Saturday’s 9th race from Gulfstream Park is the $75,000 Honey Ryder Stakes for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course (Post Time - 4:53 p.m. ET).

#12 SEDUCER (6-1) easily went all the way in her turf bow at this distance, and was wide and no threat in a local stakes race March 28. She shows back-to-back bullets for this and can go better under Irad Ortiz Jr.

#1 Envoutante (8-5) ran well in all three starts for Ken McPeek, and she looked great graduating in a dirt route April 2. She handled turf in her bow and I like her early-pressing versatility.

#2 Highland Glory (9-2) switched to turf in her last pair of won both of those races. She kicked nicely in the stretch in those two flat mile races.

#11 Bajan Girl (15-1) exits an even 4th in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and winner Swiss Skydiver just won Friday’s Fantasy Stakes. The lightly raced filly is back on her winning surface and looks live at a price under Paco Lopez.

Wagers:

#12 to win

Exacta 12/1-2-11

Exacta 1-2-11/12

Trifecta 1-2-12/ALL/11

Recent Best Bet Winners

April 20 - SHE'S ALL WOLFE ($2.80), Trifecta ($89.00)

April 21 - CANEY'S GHOST ($5.80), Quinella ($9.00), Trifecta ($14.10)

April 23 - LUNA FORTIS ($25.40)

April 24 - Artemus Eagle/River Finn Exacta ($77.20)

April 25 - Sneaking Out/Bye Bye J/Ready to Runaway Trifecta ($20.05)

April 29 - Eaton's Memory/Matapan Exacta ($8.60)

 
Posted : May 2, 2020 9:00 am
(@shazman)
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 6

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8)

SO $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 3:17P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Trailer. GLORY DIA is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FREEZER BURN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GLORY DIA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distan ce/surface. ONE HOT DRAMA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FAST FIONNUALA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LORILOUPIES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
6
FREEZER BURN
6/1

6/1
4
GLORY DIA
12/1

7/1
7
ONE HOT DRAMA
10/1

7/1
8
FAST FIONNUALA
6/1

7/1
3
LORILOUPIES
5/2

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
ONE HOT DRAMA
7

10/1
Front-runner
78

77

82.4

72.8

60.8
8
FAST FIONNUALA
8

6/1
Front-runner
64

82

70.2

77.7

70.7
3
LORILOUPIES
3

5/2
Front-runner
80

78

62.9

62.5

56.0
6
FREEZER BURN
6

6/1
Stalker
80

74

74.7

72.4

69.4
1
SMITTEN FOR SMITTY
1

12/1
Stalker
77

72

54.8

63.9

53.4
2
SWEETHEART DEAL
2

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
77

78

78.4

57.2

44.7
5
CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE
5

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
70

77

70.6

71.6

61.6
4
GLORY DIA
4

12/1
Trailer
82

76

50.0

70.6

61.1
__________________

 
Posted : May 2, 2020 12:27 pm
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three

Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 6:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * IT'S JUST BOB: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. UNCLE GOYLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUTSY STREAK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Fr ont-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LEEDSLIMIT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
IT'S JUST BOB
7/2

5/1
6
UNCLE GOYLE
4/1

6/1
2
GUTSY STREAK
6/1

7/1
4
LEEDSLIMIT
3/1

8/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
FANCY TERRACE
7

6/1
Front-runner
83

82

86.7

72.0

62.0
6
UNCLE GOYLE
6

4/1
Front-runner
89

89

80.6

83.2

76.2
4
LEEDSLIMIT
4

3/1
Front-runner
81

82

77.5

73.8

64.8
2
GUTSY STREAK
2

6/1
Alternator/Front-runner
94

86

81.8

75.4

68.4
1
STORMIN TRICK
1

10/1
Stalker
85

81

70.2

73.0

65.5
5
JOHANN'S COMMAND
5

4/1
Stalker
83

72

67.0

67.8

55.8
3
IT'S JUST BOB
3

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
93

86

66.6

82.4

79.9
__________________

 
Posted : May 2, 2020 12:27 pm
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