Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/30/20
Horse Races Today: Thursday's Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park Analysis & Odds
April 29, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
We are back in action on Thursday with an outstanding 11-race card at Gulfstream Park and I will take a look at four of the races at Oaklawn Park in my Best Plays Report
Saturday is closing day at Oaklawn Park and features the $500,000 Arkansas Derby (G1), which has been split into two divisions, with 11 three-year-olds entered in each race.
That number was reduced to 10 as Shooters Shoot will scratch out of the first division after spiking a fever and Fast Enough will miss the second division after his connections said the colt has a minor shin injury.
Each race will offer up 100-40-20-10 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1), which was supposed to be contested on Saturday. The Run for the Roses has been shifted to Sept. 5, and Oaklawn Park decided to move their marquee race to the first Saturday of May.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has a strong entry in both races. He sends out Charlatan in the first division. The colt has earned Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 106 in his two career starts and makes his stakes debut on Saturday.
In the second division Baffert will saddle the undefeated Nadal, who won the Rebel (G2) over the Oaklawn Park main track on March 14.
The races will be televised on Fox Sports 1 and the NBC Sports Network.
Sandwiched between the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby is the $600,000 Oaklawn Handicap (G2) which drew a strong field of older runners.
Baffert sends out Improbable, who was the runner up in the Oaklawn Mile in his last outing. He faces a strong group that includes New Orleans Handicap (G2) winner By My Standards, last year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers (G1) runner up Tacitus and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Combatant.
My Best Plays Report for Thursday includes my eight strongest plays from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.
Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 4/30
GP Race 1 Md $25,000 (1:00 ET)
#1 Abdaa 9-2
#11 Cardiac Kid 3-1
#8 Limetini 7-2
#10 Elvis's Joy 10-1
Analysis: Abdaa was fourth in his debut at 22-1 here for this tag going a mile on turf. The colt tracked the early pace, was caught in tight quarters nearing the 3/8's and then finished evenly in the stretch in a fourth-place finish. The Pino barn has won with 4 of his last 9 (with a +ROI) second out maidens and dating back three years has hit at a 27% clip (with a +ROI). The colt is out of a Dixieland Band mare that has dropped five winners including one turf winner. The colt came back with a good work since his debut and just needs a cleaner trip. A jock switch would have been nice, Meneses is chilly at the meeting, winning just two races from 73 mounts.
Cardiac Kid tracked the early pace and tired to finish seventh last out and drops in for a tag for the first time here for the McPeek barn. His last effort was coming back off a four-month break. His best effort came at Churchill Downs three back where he was a solid second in his third career start. He looks well spotted here dropping in for a $25,000 tag here for his second start off the layoff. He is out of a stakes placed Tale of the Cat mare that has dropped two other foals to race and they have both won on turf.
Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day - 4/30
GP Race 8 Md $50,000 (4:48 ET)
#10 Fast Magic 4-1
#9 Speedy Hans 9-2
#7 Chill Haze 3-1
#8 Bourbon Street 6-1
Analysis: Fast Magic makes his second career start here and first since November where the colt was off poorly getting bumped around coming out of the gate and making a mild late run to finish third. The colt drops in for a tag here off the bench and has been working well for his return for the McPeek barn that is 11% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. The colt is out of a Gold Case mare that has dropped four other foals to race, all winners, top earner stakes winner Syndergaard ($477,987).
Speedy Hans is back on dirt after pressing the early pace and fading to finish 10th last out going five furlongs on turf. Two back for a $32,000 tag on the main track here off a three month break he dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late in a third-place finish, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The winner of that race as Poseidon, who came back to beat $16,000 foe sin his next outing on April 18. The switch back to the main track should suit this guy. He is by Constitution and the first foal to race out of a Candy Ride mare.
Oaklawn Park Featured Race of the Day - 4/30
OP Race 6 $40,000B (3:36 CT)
#6 Gordy Florida 5-1
#2 The Red Dude 9-2
#1 Aggressivity 4-1
#7 C Z Rocket 6-1
Analysis: Gordy Florida cuts back from a mile where over a muddy track the gelding dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth against Alw-4L optional claimers. This guy has been better at six furlongs ad in three of his last six outings he has run into repeat winners including a third behind Mitole. He looks well spotted here dropping in for a $40,000 tag and facing non-winners of three or a race in a year. The Smith barn is 16% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.
The Red Dude tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out against $40,000 starter allowance foes. The runner up Awesome Anything came back to beat $30,000 starter allowance company in his next outing on March 1. He returns here as a reported gelding off a 2 1/2-month break for the Diodoro barn that is 25% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. He is 0 for 10 over the main track here but ran two solid races here last year.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #10 Elvis’s Joy 10-1
R3: #4 Crupi’s Pizza Dom 10-1
R6: #7 Senora Roma 10-1
R6: #2 Avuncular 8-1
R7: #7 Omnia 8-1
R10: #3 Crown and Sugar 10-1
R11: #11 A I Initiative 20-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 4
Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $6,250 • 550 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 45 • Purse: $8,300 • Post: 7:18P
QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FAT WAGON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SPYDASHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaste r Power Rating. THREE EYED BARBRA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
FAT WAGON
3/1
3/1
6
SPYDASHING
8/1
3/1
4
THREE EYED BARBRA
20/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
GO PAINT NOW
1
6/1
Slow
0
0
7.2
0.0
0.0
2
TAMS DANCER
2
20/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
FAT WAGON
3
3/1
Slow
62
44
6.9
0.0
0.0
4
THREE EYED BARBRA
4
20/1
Slow
59
31
6.8
0.0
0.0
5
DASHIN PYC
5
10/1
Slow
0
0
8.5
0.0
0.0
6
SPYDASHING
6
8/1
Average
58
53
4.8
0.0
0.0
8
VF DONT TALE ON ME
8
5/1
Slow
0
0
6.8
0.0
0.0
9
JOSEPH DREAMER
9
20/1
Slow
0
0
7.4
0.0
0.0
10
LOTA EXCESS
10
4/1
Average
0
0
4.9
0.0
0.0
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race 7
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 4:06P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THE GREAT DANSKY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (di rt or turf) is at least 50. SACRED OATH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SECRET BISCUIT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. REELFOOT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). RULING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
12
THE GREAT DANSKY
6/1
5/1
8
SACRED OATH
4/1
5/1
5
SECRET BISCUIT
10/1
8/1
4
REELFOOT
9/2
9/1
9
RULING
15/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
9
RULING
9
15/1
Front-runner
83
77
94.8
73.0
63.5
11
POLLY'S BROTHER
11
15/1
Front-runner
68
58
68.3
55.0
29.5
3
FLIGHT BOSS
3
15/1
Front-runner
69
48
50.9
36.0
8.5
12
THE GREAT DANSKY
12
6/1
Stalker
83
93
81.7
79.8
74.8
5
SECRET BISCUIT
5
10/1
Stalker
80
82
80.2
82.4
74.9
4
REELFOOT
4
9/2
Stalker
84
87
77.2
79.2
65.7
1
FLASH OF SILVER
1
5/1
Stalker
80
76
70.1
77.2
63.7
2
KNIGHT COMMANDER
2
10/1
Stalker
84
77
68.8
74.6
55.6
7
THE BIG BLUFF
7
8/1
Trailer
77
76
49.0
65.0
50.0
14
WOOPIGSOOIE
14
8/1
Trailer
74
71
48.3
67.3
47.8
8
SACRED OATH
8
4/1
Trailer
83
96
46.1
85.5
81.0
13
NASHVEGAS
13
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
66
72
84.1
57.5
37.5
6
SHACKLEFORD'S JOY
6
12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
91
89
53.3
51.4
35.9
10
GUM TREE LANE
10
12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
91
85
0.0
0.0
0.0
__________________
Thursday's Best Bet: Union Ride can get there this time at Oaklawn
By Jarrod Horak
Thursday’s 9th race from Oaklawn Park is a $61,000 entry level allowance event for 3-year-olds and up dashing six furlongs on the main track (Post Time - 6:09 p.m. ET).
#4 UNION RIDE (4-1) did not have the best trip as my top choice April 9, and was best of the rest in 3rd that day. He can move forward in his second start after a layoff for Orlando Mojica and Robertino Diodoro.
#11 Marvin (7-2) ran well in all six starts but only scored once. He is versatile and figures to be in the mix at the wire.
#8 Creme de Cerise (10-1) earned improved numbers in his final two sophomore starts last year. Martin Garcia takes the call and he should be heard from late if he is ready to go in his first start in 5+ months.
#9 Breaking News (12-1) is a fairly reliable late runner at this course and distance. He might hit the board.
#6 American Mandate (8-1) projects a stalking trip for Ricardo Santana Jr. and Steve Asmussen. He is 1-for-13 with eight minor awards.
Also-eligible #13 Benintendi (7-2) finished 1st or 2nd in all four starts in Maryland. He owns early-pressing versatility and always takes action at the windows.
Wagers:
#4 to win
Exacta Box 4-11
Trifecta Key 4/6-8-9-11-13
Recent Best Bet Winners
April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)
April 6 - WHOLEHEARTED ($6.40)
April 11 - PROVERB ($7.60), Exacta ($33.60), Trifecta ($48.70)
April 15 - Blue Harbor/Mr. Tickle/Yo Y Me Trifecta ($127.50)
April 17 - Sekani/The Mary Rose/Choctaw Charlie Trifecta ($48.30)
April 20 - SHE'S ALL WOLFE ($2.80), Trifecta ($89.00)
April 21 - CANEY'S GHOST ($5.80), Quinella ($9.00), Trifecta ($14.10)
April 23 - LUNA FORTIS ($25.40)
April 24 - Artemus Eagle/River Finn Exacta ($77.20)
April 25 - Sneaking Out/Bye Bye J/Ready to Runaway Trifecta ($20.05)
April 29 - Eaton's Memory/Matapan Exacta ($8.60)