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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Dukai Closer has been facing much better and coming up empty, so this reduced level should be to his liking, and there appears to be enough speed to set him up too; mows them down late.
#4 Beta Capo Song Aforementioned chalk chased to be 3rd last time, and looks like the speed on the stretch, but note her tired badly going this trip two-back, and will face some pressure today; second-best.
#1 Witt's Gold Stalker wasn't far behind the chalk in 4th last time, catches a field with some speed, should like the 2 extra furlongs, and should offer a hint of value as well; can make his presence felt.
Race Summary We end the early Pk5/Pk4 and kick off the mandatory payoff late Pk5 with a potentially vulnerable favorite in the 4, and the 6 looks primed to take advantage on the stiff class drop, so play him in all the slots, and especially all horizontal sequences as well, since he'll be a decent price, and looks to have a lot in his favor here.

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Lingering Sally Stretch runner has been 2nd in her last two, while running out of ground late, but today she catches a group with a ton of speed, and note she finally draws better too; look out.
#5 Emerald Point The gal to beat will be tough on the drop, and, like the pick, her running style fits the race profile as well, though value won't be part of her package; still, looms plenty scary.
#4 Intoxicating Kiss Fellow late runner didn't like the extra half-furlong last time, but her prior two were solid enough, and with an energetic pace she figures to run along for a share; exotics appeal.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's three or four here that want to be involved early, which means things might tilt to the stalker/closers, and the top pair certainly apply, with the 1 offering a bit more appeal on the value side, so play her in all the slots, box them both in the EX, and make sure to use them both in the mandatory payoff late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since they figure to be rolling late when all the pace begins to take its toll on the front runners.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 John Arnold Slight class dropper hasn't made a dent in his last two but has also been in two very fast races for the level, so this modest group could wake him up, at a nice price too; upset special.
#6 Rulethenight ML favorite has run well in his last two, including a 2nd at the level last time, and his versatile running style should play well with these, albeit at underlaid odds; would be no surprise.
#8 Money Broker Tampa invader has been facing much better and that alone makes him dangerous, but he was awful last time, is now with an 0-for-6 barn, and drew wide too; tread lightly if landing here.
Race Summary That 8-1 ML looks a bit too inviting on the pick, but even 5-1 or so would be fair, so play him in all the slots should the tote allow, while getting some added value by using him in the mandatory payoff late Pk5, and Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Jollyville Pedigree says yes to the added ground after the very modest debut run, and the two ML favorites in here have combined to lose 26 races, so you're allowed to look for alternatives.
#8 Wild Prospect Should be right there with another good tracking trip looming, but this is career start number 18, so she can beat me on principle.
#2 Bewitchy Hit or miss form, but her local route try last year was good enough to make her a threat here. That said, she's short on excuses in her 10th career start and probably doesn't offer a fair price.
Race Summary Jollyville would be interesting enough with a pedigree that should allow her to handle this two-turn trip, and she has since turned in a solid work ahead of this route debut.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Rozafa Another maiden spot with plenty who are out of excuses at this point in their respective careers, but this filly tries two turns with a route pedigree from Cairo Prince o/o Divine Park mare. Worth a small shot to see if the route coupled with her Oaklawn form can get her home.
#3 Magically Honored Think she's the one to beat off the good effort last out, and she'll be able to use her early pace to find a spot in a race where the splits may not be too hot.
#4 Sheza Rockstar Finished just in front of 'Honored last out, but she figures to offer a shorter price than that one in here, and they're likely to get similar trips near the top.
Race Summary Rozafa may be able to find a decent spot while in touch on the move around two turns, and the pedigree says yes. Nothing wrong with the 28% Cabrera signing on.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 Spirit of Caledon Made a nice middle move before flattening out a bit in that last one, and the price figures to be right on a guy with a ceiling that's high enough to win this.
#9 Iza Daddy Should get another really good trip near the top with these, and he has a right to be tough on the drop.
#2 Logan's Leopard Has some tactical ability to put to use in this spot, but I'd want a fair price to find out whether he can fire off a bit of a break following a really dull run.
Race Summary Spirit of Caledon is the 'other' Diodoro runner in here, and he gets the same class relief that his stablemate Iza Daddy gets.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Ryrysweetie On the board in 2 of 3 this season, drops out of stronger races and can score under these conditions.
#5 Innocent Storm Was runner-up in a similar spot last time in her 1st since August; has run well vs. good company and fits very well here.
#2 Remarkable Charm Was outrun in a fast 4-furlong race and can improved today stretching out in distance; can be close-up and should be able to stay for a piece of it.
Race Summary Ryrysweetie has run well in starter allowance and allowance races and can be expected to improve on this class drop.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Sleepy Eyes Todd Faltered from earlier efforts in the G3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds and normally is a solid frontrunner; was 2nd in the G3 Oklahoma Derby in September and had won three of four going into that one. The one to catch.
#6 Fight On Doug O'Neill ships a starter and this one faltered in the Oaklawn Mile last out. Was 3rd in the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal in Dubai two back and has the class to be a strong player here. Gets top local jockey in Armando Martinez.
#3 Mr. Tickle Was an amazingly good claim for $5,000 in August and six wins and two seconds for owner-trainer Marissa Black since that point; made a strong run against mediocre fractions and was 2nd in the Dowd Mile last time. Can be a huge threat if the shippers falter.
Race Summary Sleepy Eyes Todd does well on the front end and should be able to hung the turns here; might be allowed to set moderate fractions, which would make him very difficult to catch.

Fonner Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Ted W Won the Tondi two races back and then weakened in the Dowd Mile; takes a big drop to starter allowance and should be able to improve on his already solid 3 of 4 local record.
#6 Classy Cove Was too late in his bid last time but should get rolling earlier under jockey B. McNeil, who was aboard when he lost by a head two races back.
#7 Hesabully Seeks a 3rd straight win and scored by two at this level last time out; loves the oval and can be a force throughout this one.
Race Summary Ted W sprinted to a Tondi Stakes win two races back and drops back to starter allowance company; solid pick in this one.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Will Rogers Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,540 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 FRUGAL BETTY (ML=2/1)

FRUGAL BETTY - Broberg drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to think this animal has a shot at this level. Filly's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. This thoroughbred likes to win at multiple tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CHECKERBOARD (ML=3/1), #7 DIAMOND LEGACY (ML=5/1), #1 HAVINGAFIT (ML=6/1),

CHECKERBOARD - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't play in the top spot. Don't think this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. DIAMOND LEGACY - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed frequently. This mare finished out of the money on Mar 30th and wasn't close last time around the track either. HAVINGAFIT - Recorded a mediocre speed fig last race out in a $5,000 Claiming race on March 23rd. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FRUGAL BETTY - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 69 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 FRUGAL BETTY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

04/29/20, TAM, Race 4, 2.30 ET
04/29/20,TAM,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:03 CLAIMING. Purse $10,300. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since March 29 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races where entered for $6,250 or less not considered in allowances) (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 8 Mister Storm 8-1 Mena R Delgado Jose H. TSL 51.28 1.91/$1
099.88 2 Gilded Drama 5/2 Camacho S Bennett Gerald S. 32.82 1.05/$1
097.91 4 Actspectation 12-1 Santos A Woodard Walter H. F 32.82 1.05/$1
097.80 1 Kalu 7/2 Martinez W Harty Eoin G. E 32.82 1.05/$1
097.18 3 I'll Make U Famous 8-1 Almeida M Heinen Miles H. 32.82 1.05/$1
096.91 6 Nicole Munnings 10-1 Gallardo A A Machado Antonio J 40.00 1.55/$1
096.44 9 Shakem N Breakem 4-1 Allen. Jr. R D Dominguez Luis R. C 32.82 1.05/$1
095.11 5 Mikado 15-1 Allen M Allen Lisa 32.82 1.05/$1
094.39 7 Striking Heir 12-1 Mejia T B Hinsley David H. W 40.00 1.55/$1
094.00 10 Unflappable Max 20-1 Alencar W Ferraro M. Anthony 40.00 1.55/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 32.08, ROI 0.90/$1
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15180 Class Rating: 73

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 VICTORY STRIPE 4/1

# 3 DONT TELL NOOBODY 3/1

# 4 OUT ON SATURDAY 5/1

I've got to go with VICTORY STRIPE. This gelding has to be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt route events alone. Looks like a formidable contender for the exotics. Recorded a strong speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. DONT TELL NOOBODY - The speed fig of 73 from his last race looks quite good in here. Has run solidly when racing a dirt route race. OUT ON SATURDAY - If you look closely, this one has some longshot potential. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt route races make this animal a solid choice.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7040 Class Rating: 35

FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TRIP CODE 4/1

# 1 PICKLES N ME 8/1

# 7 P R STREAKIN 5/2

I think TRIP CODE is a very good choice. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turn around for this gelding. With Olesiak getting the mount, watch out for this animal. Will make a good outing versus this group. PICKLES N ME - He should have a good outing versus this easier field of horses. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a key contender. P R STREAKIN - Has respectable early speed and will probably fare soundly against this group of horses in this race. Conditioner has solid win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface.
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 4/29

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:24 am
We hit every race yesterday but did not get great payouts. Fresh One won and we hit the 7-2 exacta in Race 1. Gato Guapo came in third in race 8 and we hit the race 9 exacta 2-7. Today we make the move to Tampa Bay with three races.

Race 3
#2 Wish Upon $10 w/p/s

Race 4
#1 Kalu $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 1-3-9

Race 6
#8 Premier Justice $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-3-4
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Jeff Siegel's Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies - 4/29/20

April 29, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Young American; 10-The Great Houdini

Forecast: Young American is an old vet with 53 starts and may be feeling the effects of a long career. He’s been one-paced with no real late punch in his recent races, but the son of Congrats rates top billing in this restricted $5,000 sprint under the realization that somebody has to finish first. Winless in six starts over the local main track, the A. Rini-trained gelding nevertheless is a fit on numbers and should be within range to the head of the lane and then have his chance. The Great Houdini has four wins and 15 places in his 50 race career and has no tactical speed, but on paper looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types and should make his presence felt late. In race that is best left alone (we’ve rated it a “C”), both should be included in rolling exotic play, and if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Accessible

Forecast: Accessible is even money on the morning line and looks it in this below average maiden special weight main track affair. Second in three of his four career outings and with numbers that are better than par for this level, the son of Tapit returns to dirt, which appears to be his preferred surface, and with the switch to S. Camacho should have little difficulty handling this soft assignment. We can make him a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Wish Upon; 4-Bramble Queen; 8-Passing Out

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Wish Upon was 54-1 when overmatched in the Hillsborough S.-G2 in early March but seems well-placed to regain her winning form over a course she’s been known to like. The J. Terranova-trained mare earned a strong speed figure two runs back (better than par for this level) when winning a good starter’s allowance affair and with the switch to S. Comacho from a comfortable inside draw the daughter of El Corredor has plenty in her favor. Passing Out, away since November, vans up from Payson Park for Shug and similar shippers from this barn have done very well this meeting (first or second in seven of 12 starts). The lightly-raced daughter of Orb has speed figures from last year that fit and shows a recent work tab that should have her ready. And since she won her debut, we know she can fire fresh. Bramble Queen, on vacation since the fall, shows a light recent series of drills and may be a race away, but her Midwest speed figures from last year are solid and her record over the local lawn fairly impressive (never off the board in five starts, with three wins). The rider doesn’t win many but we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two as a back-up.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kalu; 2-Gilded Drama; 8-Mister Storm

Forecast: Gilded Drama drops to his lowest level ever for a high-percentage barn that runs its stock where it belongs. A winner in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 off-the-turf dash two runs back, the son of Big Drama wasn’t quite up to competing at the $16,000 level in his most recent outing so he drops again for the money run and will beat this field if he has one good one left. Kalu had a rough trip when unplaced vs. tougher earlier this month and is another dropping to his cheapest level yet. His win two races back charts well here, so if he can negotiate a good trip from the rail the E. Harty-trained son of Ghostzapper should be right there. Mister Storm makes his second start since joining a high percentage outfit and has a few back numbers that make him dangerous, though he’s winless in eight career outings on dirt. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth a look as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Tabled; 8-Cadet Connelly; 10-Mr. Kringle

Forecast: Mr. Kringle gets the worst of the draw but after finishing second in the Columbia Stakes over this course and distance in early March the J. Terranova-trained colt shows up in a first-level allowance affair that’s within his capabilities with a decent sort of trip. He picks up S. Camacho and shows a strong series of recent local workouts including a noteworthy bullet half mile drill in :47 flat earlier this month that was the fastest of 72 for the distance. Cadet Connelly is the one to fear most, having finished second at 109-1 in the Summer S.-G1 at Woodbine last summer. A versatile type who can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace, the Grey Swallow gelding lands A. Gallardo and the work tab, while not flashy, should have him fit enough for a competent outfit. Tabled earned a career top number when missing by a head in a similar affair at 36-1 earlier this month and has done very well since in the a.m., turning in a bullet half mile drill of :48 flat that was the fastest of 28 two weeks ago. The M. Stidham-trained son of Super Saver should be a strong threat if gets some cover early and then is produced late. In what appears to be a stronger than par race for the level, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and the press with extra tickets keying Mr. Kringle on top.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Premier Justice

Forecast: Here’s a modest affair, a restricted (nw-2) $8,000 seller for fillies and mares. Let’s take a stand. After breaking her maiden here three races back in stylish fashion, Premier Justice was sent long in her next start (doesn’t want that) and wound up a hanging fourth, and then was dropped to this level 11 days ago but was impeded early and never got involved. We’ll give her a chance to bounce back today for a high percentage barn in a seven furlong affair that should present a soft and favorable pace scenario. She’s 7/2 on the morning line and at that price she may offer a bit of value, so rather that spread or buy the race (which we considered) we’ll use her in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single and simply hope to be right.
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Uhtred; 7-Last Promise; 8-Jack the Cat

Forecast: Last Promise is strong in the speed figure department and loves to win races (he’s 7-for-15), so despite being up in class from a $25,000 claimer to a first-level allowance race the lightly-raced 6-year-old gelding seems quite capable of continuing his excellent recent form. Tough on the lead or from off the pace and equally capable on dirt or turf, the son of Spring At Last can adjust to any pace flow and this jockey fits him well. We’ll put him on top at 9/2 on the morning line. The C. Clement-trained Uhtred vans back up from Payson Park for his first outing since December. Third as the favorite over this course and distance at this level, the son of English Channel shows an uneven work tab for his first start in more than four months but he’s guaranteed a good trip from his rail draw and picks up the barn’s local go-to rider, S. Camacho, so we have to think he’s live. Jack the Cat can really turn it on late and earned a career top speed figure (one that’s better than par for this level) when finishing a strong runner-up in a similar affair in mid-March. With some help up, front the Courageous Cat gelding should be heard from late.
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RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tilsa; 3-Curly Wurly; 8-Never Forget; Lipstikliesnlovers

Forecast: The finale is an intriguing maiden special weight middle distance turf event for fillies and mares. Curly Wurly, a first-timer by Curlin from the potent C. Clement/S. Camacho team. While we doubt she’s any world beater (she would have debuted at Gulfstream Park if she was), the Castleton Lyons homebred has worked well enough at Payson Park to indicate some ability, so in a field in which the known element isn’t all that impressive we’ll try the fresh face at 4-1 on the morning line. Tilsa is another newcomer worth a close look. The daughter of Flatter hails from the top shelf J. Thomas stable, lands the good rail and gets the barn’s main jockey D. Centeno. The local work tab seems fairly solid for a barn that is competent with debut runners, so we have to think this filly is well-meant at 6-1 on the morning line. Among those with prior experience, Never Forget and Lipstikliesnlovers have credentials to be competitive. The former is a War Front filly trying grass for the first time and could leave her previous form behind, while the latter, a daughter of American Pharoah, adds blinkers after finishing third in a similar affair over the local lawn and projects to be prominent throughout in a race that is likely to be slowly run early.
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