Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 4/12/20

Mike Money McClure

The NBA is providing some action that begins at 7 p.m. ET Sunday, April 12, with a HORSE Challenge that will be nationally televised.

Trae Young vs. Chauncey Billups - Trae Young - Young is the favorite for a reason!

Tamika Catchings vs. Mike Conley Jr. - Mike Conley Jr.

- I'm torn here because I think they want a WNBA contestant to advance, but because this is a remote event I'll stick with Conley who should win this matchup.

Zach LaVine vs. Paul Pierce - Paul Pierce

- Pierce was extremely vocal about wanting to be in this event from the second it was suggested. Remove the dunking ability of LaVine and this is a relatively even matchup in a game of HORSE. Give me Paul Pierce.

Chris Paul vs. Allie Quigley - Chris Paul

Overall Winner - Chris Paul - Trae Young is the betting market favorite, but this event has Chris Paul written all over it. CP3 is one of the sharpest players in the league who will greatly benefit from a skills contest that doesn't involve dunking. Perhaps the biggest piece of news here is State Farm connection. Chris Paul's number one marketing partner, State Farm, will donate more than $200,000 to coronavirus relief efforts on behalf of contest participants. CP3 wants to win this event.

Odds:

Event winner:

Trae Young +225
Chris Paul +300
Zach LaVine +400
Mike Conley Jr. +450
Paul Pierce +500
Chauncey Billups +700
Allie Quigley +900
Tamika Catchings +1200

Quarterfinal matchups:

Trae Young -250
Chauncy Billups +200

Mike Conley Jr. -450
Tamika Catchings +350

Zach LaVine -140
Paul Pierce +110

Chris Paul -350
Allie Quigley +250
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Gjelstad and Norheim

Founders of the Trademate Sports model

Belarusian Premier League

Moneyline Plays

Minsk v. BATE Borisov (8 a.m. ET)

Money line: BATE Borisov -107

Against the spread: At -0.5, back BATE Borisov.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: BATE Borisov 1, Minsk 0

Smolevichi v. Shakhtyor Soligorsk (10 a.m. ET)

Money line: Shakhtyor Soligorsk -180

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Shakhtyor Soligorsk.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Shakhtyor Soligorsk 2, Smolevichi 1

Dinamo Brest v. Isloch (12 p.m. ET)

Money line: Dinamo Brest -145

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Dinamo Brest.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Dinamo Brest 1, Isloch 1
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/12/20

April 12, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Sunday, April 12, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Grimpante; 8-Toffen

Forecast: Grimpante was sent to Tampa Bay Downs for her debut in straight maiden company and wound up a moderate fifth, so today she’s being culled from the barn in this maiden $25,000 seller for 3-year-old fillies. She’s clearly no world beater but against this group the daughter of Empire Maker should be in her element. Drawn comfortably inside, switching to T. Gaffalione and a strong fit on speed figures, she offers wagering value at or near her morning line of 4-1. Toffen is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and also is worth including considering that price. The daughter of Cairo Prince had an unsuccessful try sprinting on dirt in her debut in December and returns for a tag, stretches out, and switches to grass for new trainer B. Lynch. A bullet 47 seconds workout around dogs on grass (fastest of 34) certainly catches the eye.
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RACE 2: Post 12:29 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Followhisfootsteps; 9-Lucktobeinamerica; 12-London Werewolf

Forecast: Class-dropper Luckytobeinamerica has been sprinting on turf and finding five furlongs a bit too sharp, especially against the tougher competition he’s been seeing. If he handles the dirt, he can beat this field. The D. Schettino-trained gelding has hit the board just once in four previous main track starts, all against tougher than he's facing today. Followhisfootsteps wound up a distant second as the favorite in a similar spot last month behind a runaway winner and clearly ran below his best form. It was his first start in more than two months, so maybe he needed it. Back in 17 days, the Field Commission gelding retains L. Saez, goes from outside to inside, and both of his career victories were accomplished over the local main track. London Werewolf looked good blowing away a bottom-rung field over this track and distance last month, earning a career-top equaling speed figure, and if he can duplicate that type of effort today he at least should outrun his morning line of 10-1.
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RACE 3: Post 12:58 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Victory Tower; 6-Whiskey Sunrise

Forecast: Whiskey Sunrise flashed plenty of speed and promise when second in his debut last April but then disappeared. The son of Cajun Breeze returns protected as a first-time gelding and shows a bullet three furlong blowout (:35 flat, fastest of 29) last month, so we’ll assume he’s returning as well as he left. Victory Town has an improving pattern for M. Casse, and with another forward move certainly will be the one to fear most. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Whiskey Sunrise.
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RACE 4: Post 1:27 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-The Girl Herself; 4-Saratoga Affair; 8-Pilot Episode

Forecast: Two very promising first-time starting fillies surface in this six furlong sprint and both appear capable of winning first crack out of the box. The Girl Herself is a daughter of American Pharoah from the T. Pletcher and has shown plenty of speed in the a.m., though the workout times don’t really tip her off her true ability. Assuming a clean break from the rail, she will take some catching, and at 5-1 on the morning line she offers plenty of wagering value. Saratoga Affair brought $400,000 at the 2019 OBS April Sale, where she was impressive breezing a furlong in 10 seconds. She missed her entire juvenile season and finally makes it to the races a year later. Although bred more for distance (Paynter from a Street Sense mare), the C. Brown-trained filly appears to have plenty of speed and with P. Lopez taking the call she won’t be waiting around for anybody. Pilot Episode has the benefit of a couple of prior runs, and with improving speed figures and adding Lasix for the first time the daughter of Speightstown is a “must use.” This appears to be a very good race on paper and it should take a pretty good filly to win it.
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RACE 5: Post 1:56 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Blue Magic; 7-Heir Ball; 9-Fiber Optic

Forecast: Blue Magic is logical on form but is dropping drastically from $35,000 to $16,000 in just her second start off the claim, so clearly trainer M. Maker isn’t particularly happy with the merchandise. Her lack of gate speed is always a concern in these abbreviated dashes but she has won twice over the course, so with decent fractions and a clear path she’ll be more than capable of producing a winning late kick. Heir Ball, first or second in 10 of 21 career starts, employs a nice pace-stalking style and won at this level three races back over this course and distance. Her numbers are solid and regular jockey V. Lebron always gets plenty of run out of her. Fiber Optic seeks her third straight score and is solid in the speed figure department. Undefeated in three prior outings over the Gulfstream Park lawn, the lightly-raced five-year-old mare isn’t being raised in class by new trainer R. Dibona, so there may be an issue, but if she has at least one good one left she certainly can win. At 8-1 on the morning line you have to include her somewhere.
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RACE 6: Post 2:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Risk Model; 5-Primacy

Forecast: Risk Model and Primacy, stable mates in C. Brown’s barn, make their second career starts in this one-turn mile maiden affair for fillies and mares and both seems certain to move forward considerably. The barn has a remarkable record with second-times starters, hitting at 35% with a flat-bred profit from a huge sample. Primacy, a daughter of Union Rags and therefore bred to improve with distance and experience, stretches out from six and one-half furlongs after finishing with a flourish but running out of room when second to Finding Fame, who came back to frank the form when winning on the raise earlier this week. She very likely will go lower than her morning line of 5/2. ‘Model was a respectable third over this track and distance after a bit of a slow start and a wide trip in a race that didn’t rate as highly in the speed figure department as the one Primacy exits, However, the runner-up in Risk Model’s event came back to win, so it was at least a fairly decent affair. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Primacy.
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RACE 7: Post 2:57 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Combination; 7-Ray’swarrior

Forecast: This $8,000 claiming sprint appears to have two main players in a race that we’re not really planning on getting too involved in. We’ll try to survive using just two. Ray’swarrior, claimed in each of his last five starts, finds himself in the K. Breen barn (good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle) and we suspect the hard-hitting gelding will display considerable improvement after tossing in a clunker as the favorite when competing in a starter optional $12,500 affair last time out. He’s an eight-time winner with two victories over the local main track and should be part of the pace throughout. Combination won the race Ray’swarrior exits and could easily extend his current winning streak to four after earning a career top number in that race. The son of Alternation does his best work from off the pace and gets an extra half furlong to work with today.
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RACE 8: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Dyn

Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of a price in this maiden claiming turf mile. Dyn tries two-turns, grass, and maiden claiming company for the first time and from the rail seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Bred for the lawn on the dam’s side (Candy Ride) and switching to T. Gaffalione, the B. Lynch-trained gelding sports a pair of sharp grass drills, most recently a bullet :47 flat breezing move that was the fastest of 27 for the distance. Exiting a hot one-turn dirt mile, the grey sophomore should be able slow down the pace during the early stages as the controlling speed and then be fresh for the drive. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Merseyside; 4-Prospective Diva; 5-Cory Gal; 8-Shes All Woman

Forecast: We’ll sit out this very difficult first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares and go four-deep in our rolling exotics while hoping to get home a decent price. Merseyside was blown away in the final furlong by Up in Smoke, but that talented filly came back to do the same thing on the raise, and Merseyside did hang on to finish almost four lengths clear of the others, so it was actually a pretty good effort. The main issue is that she’s drawn inside all of the other speed – and there’s plenty of it – so there’s a possibility of becoming a pace casualty. Cory Gal has only one way to go – on the front end – and won’t be waiting around to see what Merseyside is up to. The daughter of Corfu crushed a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 band by five lengths last month and did so with a speed figure that is better than par for this tougher spot. It was his first outing since being claimed by G. Delgado and her Beyer figure improved 17 points, so who knows where she’s level off? Prospective Diva and Shes All Woman will doing their best work from off the pace and will benefit if a pace duel develops. Both usually settle for minor awards but are capable of tagging the speed if things go their way.
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RACE 10: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Sir Seamus; 10-Machiavelli; 11-Devoted Kitten

Forecast: Here’s another spread race, a one mile grass grab bag for restricted (nw-3) $20,000 older claimers. Devoted Kitten is solid on numbers, lightly raced, and capable of improving. Beaten a neck in a fairly strong race for the level, the son of Kitten’s Joy moves up a notch and will be dangerous if he can get over and secure a decent trip from outside post 11. His 5-1 morning line seems about right. Sir Seamus does his best work as the controlling speed, so from where he’s drawn the Handsome Mike gelding seems sure to employ gate-to-wire tactics, just as he did when winning a lesser race over this course and distance last month. The number was quite strong but was accomplished under pristine (lone speed) conditions. He may have to deal with more pace today, courtesy of need-the-lead Brasstown. Machiavelli won a $40,000 non-winners of two in good style in early February but then was away for more than two months and shows up for half that amount today. If he’s okay for at least one more. The M. Casse-trained gelding certainly can win again.
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RACE 11: Post 5:01 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Ms Meshak; 7-Naked Avenger; 8-Guacamole

Forecast: Naked Avenger has been doing some very good work over the Gulfstream Park West main track in preparation for her first start since October, and the T. Hills-trained filly, a stakes-winner in New York bred company as a 2-year-old, figures to be very live in this second-level allowance field if she returns as well as she left. She’s not a quick type but can turn it on late, and because she won her debut she clearly can fire fresh. L. Saez knows her well and will have her rolling late. Ms Meshak, in the money at this level in her last pair and solid in the speed figure department, is another that likes to settle and produce a good late run. Five times successful over the Gulfstream Park main track and a Florida-bred stakes winner, the daughter of Shackleford will need strong handling from the 7-pound bug to have her best chance. Guacamole backs up from a mile, lands the cozy outside post, and should be comfortably placed pressing or stalking the pace. Include her in your rolling exotics, at least as a back-up.
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RACE 12: Post 5:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Drama in Dixie; 10-Blazing Desire

Forecast: The finale is a $20,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. We’ll use two, but if you feel the need to spread, go right ahead. Drama in Dixie is a first-time gelding exiting a tougher optional $25,000 claimer and should go better in this straight seller after a rough trip last time out. He’s most effective on or near the lead and projects to secure an ideal stalking spot from a comfortable draw. There’s a bit of value here at 8-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Blazing Desires is the 2-1 favorite and has to be included, though he’s drawn a bit farther out in the 10-hole than is ideal. The M. Maker-trained gelding takes a sharp drop in class (typical of this barn) and switches to L Saez, so if he fires his best shot, the son of Munnings will most likely verify his backing.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 Redoute's Light Tampa invader was a solid 7th in his return, fits nicely with these on paper lures Paco, and should be a square price too; upset special.
#8 Bold Paynter Class dropper has been facing better while holding his own, has the tactical speed to work out a trip, and will offer value; do not ignore.
#10 Machiavelli Tricky read was just all-out to beat N2L foes and now meets much tougher, draws terribly, and will be vastly overbet; mixed signals here.
Race Summary You won't sniff the 15-1 ML on the pick but even 10-1 would be fair on a runner who exits a good race, has a top jock, and should be tighter off the return, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would likely blow up both sequences, as this is a deep race, and anyone with a minimal budget won't be ale to cover his number.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#3 Ms Meshak Stalker was a big 2nd to a graded stakes winner in her last dirt run, should trip off beautifully just off the speed, and meets an average crew for the level; love her chances here.
#2 Flat Awesome Jenny Price player has a stretch run that should play here with all the speed signed on, and while she's not rated as high as the top pick, she'll make her presence felt late; logical EX partner.
#9 Baccarat Fashion Maker claim (15%) got caught chasing a hot pace last time and paid the price late, so if she can settle she's in with a chance, though it's tough to improve off Walder; mixed signals.
Race Summary Make an aggressive win and place bet if you sniff that 7-2 ML on the pick, as she looks more like 2-1 or 5-2 in here, though you can get some additional value by singling her in the late Pk5/Pk4, as her best dirt race is simply better than what these gals can do, plus she's going to get an ideal pace scenario to sit just off of as well.

Gulfstream Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#4 Drama in Dixie Class dropper is worth a look on that alone, as the run two-back against similar was sharp, but he also drew well, and, as important as anything, runs as a first-time gelding; look out.
#10 Blazing Desire The decided chalk is best on figures and drops stiffly as well, and he has plenty of speed to help negate this bad draw, but off a bad run as short odds, he's tough to trust; trying to beat.
#9 Gran Hombre Big longshot was nowhere on the dirt, got to the turf, then blew way up, and while he tackles eons better here, if he moves forward off that win, he's not without hope; exotics appeal.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 4, and there are angles attached here too, and with the 10 being potentially vulnerable as well, the pick looks that much more attractive, so play him in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling 'Desire at the end, which means a win by the pick will play that much longer in both squences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Grimpante Never quite as worried when a homebred drops in like this off a decent enough debut, and this easier spot should give her every chance to get home.
#9 Into Fancy Debuts in a reasonable spot and won't have to be a star to get the job done at first asking, and there's nothing wrong with getting Saez aboard.
#6 Subtle Joy Has had some chances, so she's a bit tough to love on top, but she's generally pretty reliable and can land a share underneath at a price.
Race Summary Grimpante can probably handle these with something similar to her debut run at Tampa, as there isn't much in here on paper for her to worry about. Guessing she's not offering the 4/1 ML price.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Pilot Episode Really solid effort last out behind a nice winner in Boerne, and she'll add Lasix for this run. She draws well to utilize that tactical pace and looks like the one to beat from close range.
#2 Nikki and Papa Drops pretty hard after trying GIII and GII company in her first two career starts, but her running lines and figures don't stand out against a few of these, so I'd want to be sure to get a fair price, even on the class drop.
#1 The Girl Herself Debuter draws a tricky rail post, but she bring a pretty decent looking set of drills to this first trip to post for Pletcher.
Race Summary Pilot Episode figures tough from a great draw for her tactical running style, and the addition of Lasix probably gets her over the top today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#9 Fiber Optic Zero chance this one is going to offer the 8/1 ML price after rattling off a pair of wins at this trip at 2/1 and 1/5, and she now goes off the claim for a team that wins a quarter of their races.
#2 Blue Magic Looks like the one to beat, but she might need something a bit better than that last effort even while dropping here. Don't think hse has to win this, especially not with the top choice singed on here.
#7 Heir Ball Tactical type can get a decent run of things in this spot, but it seems like her ceiling is a bit lower than the top two at this point in time. Underneath or on backup/saver tickets.
Race Summary Fiber Optic will probably offer a playable price in here with the presence of Blue Magic on the drop, but she'd be interesting at something more like half her 8/1 ML price.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Primacy Impressive late run produced a 2nd-place finish in her debut; looks like hope was lost early but she looped the field and finished fastest of all. A better start and the additional distance should put her over the top.
#2 Prairie Wings Improvement position but didn't close a lot of ground in a 2nd-place performance last out; makes 1st start for Pletcher after being trained in her debut by McLaughlin. Clearly a contender.
#4 Risk Model Hung in the drive and finished 3rd in her debut; probably gets a cleaner trip this out and is eligible to improve.
Race Summary Primacy made an eye-catching run from 10th to 2nd going 6.5 furlongs and appears to be built for this mile distance; one to hold off.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Le Coste Has a 2nd to his credit, comes in off a 4th and moves over to the Orseno barn; improved position and can be a late factor if he runs back to his last one.
#7 Sole Seeker Drops out of maiden special races and makes his first turf start; has one decent start in three tries and the class drop and surface change should move him up.
#1 Dyn Comes from maiden special races, makes his first start for a tag and has the pedigree to like the grass.
Race Summary Le Coste improved in his latest and likely will get a decent pace setup; will be tough if he runs back to his last one.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 Prospective Diva This race calls out for a late runner, and this mare looks like the solution. She's been mostly on turf but also had some good efforts in her races on dirt. A rapid pace will set her up for a late run.
#8 Shes All Woman Can be fairly close to the pace and gets a rider change to Saez; won't have to rally from afar and could be dangerous with a well-timed move.
#3 How Sweep It Is Steps up to this level from lower claiming and ran a solid 2nd; fought it out and couldn't get the leader but outnodded Shes All Woman for the bottom end of the exacta last time.
Race Summary Prospective Diva has a solid late move and will get a lot of pace help from several speedsters; a clean trip can put her into the winner's circle.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 15 LAKE PARIMA 8/1

# 14 SHOW MAID 12/1

# 2 GRIMPANTE 4/1

LAKE PARIMA seems to be the wager in here and the potential return justifies the hazardous nature of the long odds. Recent numbers for the jockey - 24 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group of animals. Has to be considered - I like the figs from the last affair. Gaffalione's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this animal a strong contender. SHOW MAID - Has respectable speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. GRIMPANTE - This filly could improve with second time Lasix. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this one a solid contender.
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Paul Leiner

Happy Easter Horse Picks 4/12

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:16 am
Happy Easter everyone. Enjoy the day with your loved ones and appreciate the time you have together. Bad one yesterday, Chart came in 2nd at Gulfstream but other picks were lousy. Thousand Words stumbled out of the gate and could not recover at Oaklawn. Today I have 5 races at Gulfstream for you.

Race 1
#3 By His Grace $5 w/p/s

Race 4
#5 Sixth Street $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-8-1

Race 6
#2 Prairie Wings $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-5-6

Race 8
#8 Budget Buster $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-10-7

Race 11
#8 Guacamole $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-7-9
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