Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 4/11/20

Horse Races Today: Saturday's Gulfstream and Oaklawn Odds
April 11, 2020
By Mike Dempsey

While we are mostly stuck in our homes, we have plenty of horse racing action on Saturday including a 13-race marathon card at Gulfstream Park and a 12-race card at Oaklawn Park.

It was supposed to be Arkansas Derby Day, but the marquee race of the Oaklawn Park meet was rescheduled for May 2. That was supposed to be Kentucky Derby Day, which has been shifted to September 5.

Today’s $200,000 Oaklawn Stakes drew a field of 13 three-year-olds and is a prep for the Arkansas Derby. The top three finishers earn automatic berths into the race while the winner stamps a ticket to the Preakness Stakes (G1). Don’t ask me when the second jewel of the Triple Crown is. Your guess is as good as mine.

The co-feature at Oaklawn Park today is the $150,000 Oaklawn Mile which drew a wide open field of 14. Tom’s d’Etat is the 3-1 morning line favorite. The seven-year-old makes his first start since winning the Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs last November.

There are no stakes at Gulfstream Park today, but we have big field and competitive races throughout the card.

my nine strongest plays from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.

There is no shortage of horse racing on national television this afternoon. Fox Sports 1 will be televising the action on Saturday from 1:30 to 7:00 ET and the NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 8:00 ET.

Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
Gulfstream Park Odds and Picks: Opening Race of Today, April 11
GP Race 1 Clm $12,500N2L (12:30 ET)
#6 Put It On Detti 9-2
#7 Primo Posto 4-1
#11 Venerate 10-1
#1 Bolt 12-1

Analysis: Put It On Detti gets the slight nod in the opener. The gelding makes his third career start and appears to have more upside than most of this group. He broke his maiden last out in his second career start and first on turf beating $25,000 foes. He now being reported as a gelding here for the Collazo and gets a jock upgrade to Paco.

Primo Posto trialed throughout last out in a sixth place finish on the main track against $35,000 non-winners of two. He as a decent third behind a repeat winner two back against $25,000 non-winners of two. He broke his maiden on turf going 5 1/2 at Colonial Downs last September. He drops into an easier spot while adding blinkers and will appreciate the switch back to turf.
Oaklawn Park Odds and Picks: Featured Race of Today, April 11
OP Race 9 The Oaklawn Mile (4:43 CT)
#2 Mr. Money 4-1
#3 Tom's d'Etat 3-1
#4 Pioneer Spirit 6-1
#14 Improbable 7-2

Analysis: Mr. Money won four of his eight starts last year including three straight Grade 3 wins coming in the Matt Winn at Churchill Downs, the Indiana Derby at Indiana Grand and the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park. He tossed in a dud in his last start of the year in a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Four runners have come out of that race to run back, two winners and one runner up finish in stakes company. The barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. His win at a mile came at one turn in the Pat Day Mile (G3) at Churchill Downs last May. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and should be able to work out a trip sitting not far off the pace.

Tom’s d’Etat is making his first start since winning the Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs last November. He won three of his last four starts last year and has earned triple digit Beyers in his last six starts. Stall was pointing this guy toward the Ben Ali at Keeneland which would have been run today but the pandemic wiped out the spring meeting at the Lexington track. His win at a mile came going one turn and he is best at nine furlongs. He looks as if he is tactical enough that Rosario should be able to have him in a good tracking spot, but his price may end up lighter than his 3-1 morning line.

Pioneer Spirit is sent out by the Diodoro barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting here and this guy is coming off a third in the slop in the Essex Handicap. The barn claimed him for $150,000 last fall at Churchill Downs and he won his first two starts for the barn including the Fifth Season here three back at a mile. The seven-year-old rarely runs a bad one, landing in the money in 24 of his 31 career starts and five of seven over the main track here. He has some early zip and should be forwardly placed which is where you want to be at a mile here with the short stretch.
Gulfstream Park Odds and Picks: Featured Race of Today, April 11
GP Race 10 OClm $75,000N1X (4:54 ET)
#6 Chart 4-1
#7 Lastchanceforlove 3-1
#1 Boerne 7-2
#8 Bachelor's Bait 15-1

Analysis: Chart cuts back to a sprint here after pressing the early pace and fading to finish eighth last out in the Davona Dale (G2) at a mile. This gal broke her maiden in her debut at 5-2 for Contessa who rarely wins with firsters. She drops in class as she makes her first start for the Casse barn that is 14% winners with newcomers to the barn. She showed some promise in her debut and was just in too tough last out, she fits well in this spot.

Lastchanceforlove took the field gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut at Fair Grounds going six furlongs. She only had to beat four foes, two of which came back to run well in their next starts in runner up finishes. The $190,000 Keeneland purchase was sent off at 3-1 in her unveiling. She earned solid early and mid pace numbers but does have a couple of foes in here that can stick with her early. She picks up Saez and is good hands with the Walsh barn.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #11 Venerate 10-1
R2: #1 Nenita 8-1
R2: #8 Bev’s Strength 8-1
R4: #6 Starship Taxi 15-1
R6: #5 Baker’s Bay 8-1
R7: #2 Robintakincharge 10-1
R8: #9 Mr Jaggers 12-1
R8: #2 Cornbread Kingdom 8-1
R10: #8 Bachelor’s Bait 15-1
R11: #3 Go Away 12-1
R13: #2 Farley 10-1

Oaklawn Stakes Horse Racing Picks and Betting Strategies
April 10, 2020
By Anthony Stabile

Oaklawn Park - Featured Race
Bet the Oaklawn Stakes at TVG!
THE OAKLAWN
Date: Saturday, April 11, 2020
Post Time: 6:48 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: FS1/TVG
Race #: 11
Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 miles
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $200,000
Track: Oaklawn Park
Location: Hot Springs, Arkansas
Oaklawn Stakes
Handicapping Analysis
(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Basin (7-2) Stayed on to finish third after a less than stellar trip in the Rebel most recently, his first start since taking the Hopeful at Saratoga over six months ago and first around two turns. Gets Geroux and saddle and should be more forwardly placed from inside draw.

2 – Coach Bahe (20-1) Has raced over three wet tracks and the turf in his career and should get fast track for first time in here. Finished fifth in Rebel when first time Lasix. Could use a fast pace.

3 – Mr. Big News (30-1) Made up minimal ground when fifth in second, “slower” division of Risen Star nearly two months ago. Has won just once in five starts.

4 – Thousand Words (5-2) Tasted defeat for first time when no match for barn mate Authentic in San Felipe at Santa Anita last out. Won a pair of graded stakes, the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert Lewis, with gutsy efforts against lesser. Starting to think added distances may not be in his best interest.

5 – Sir Rick (15-1) Has won four of his six starts, including a minor-stakes at Sunland Park while making his first start out of the Diodoro barn. Should be part of the early pace and has handled the longer distances up to this point.

6 – Shoplifted (10-1) Finished third in the Smarty Jones and fourth in Southwest in his two tries over the course. Trainer Steve Asmussen has given him a steady diet of route races despite a win and runner-up effort to Basin in the Hopeful while sprinting. Keep waiting for a breakthrough effort.

7 – Flap Jack (20-1) Lone win came over all-weather surface in a minor-stakes at Arlington last summer. Finished off-the-board in Gotham off a six-month layoff last out

8 – Taishan (8-1) Dropped in from a pair of off-the-board finishes in graded stakes to romp in the slop against allowance/optional claiming company last out. Not a fan on fast ground but one to watch if track comes up wet.

9 – Digital (8-1) Worked out a good trip in first division of Risen Star but failed to fire in the latter stages at this distance. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s more of a one-turn type. Let the tote board be your guide.

10 – Something Natural (20-1) He’s won two of his seven starts, the only two he’s made on a fast track, including an allowance/optional claimer over this course, two starts back. Third most recently in a stakes over the all-weather at Turfway, he hails from top barn and will be a juicy price. . If you’re looking for a horse that’ll be 25-1 or so, he might be your guy.

11 – Background (12-1) Broke his maiden two back in his lone try over fast ground. Finished third to Taishan most recently. Pedigree suggests he may have some distance limitations.

12 – Farmington Road (6-1) Has improved in every one of his four starts, made up ground over a speed-biased course in the first division of Risen Star and gets blinkers for the first time. Post isn’t great but he’ll be coming from out of it so it shouldn’t matter. Will be motoring at the end.

13 – Gold Street (20-1) Winless in four tries over fast ground, including a complete dud in the Southwest when he was last after some early traffic trouble. He won his three prior over wet tracks, including a minor-stakes at Fair Grounds and the local Smarty Jones.
THE OAKLAWN
Predictions - If I had $100
$1 tri part-wheel 1,12 with 1,6,9,10,12 with All

Race of the Week: Oaklawn Mile

April 9, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

$150,000 OAKLAWN MILE
Saturday, April 11, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
It may not be Arkansas Derby Day -- that's been rescheduled for the first Saturday in May -- but this Saturday's 12-race Oaklawn card won't leave many disappointed. The Oaklawn Mile and Oaklawn Stakes share the marquee with full fields that are the hallmark on the day's program. And just like last week's Purple Martin Stakes locally, the lack of national stakes competition has resulted in both of these listed stakes looking a lot more like graded events. The Oaklawn Mile goes as Race 9 and will be our focus, while the Oaklawn Stakes takes place in Race 11.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners TOM'S d'ETAT and IMPROBABLE own the field's best resumes. LONG RANGE TODDY is a Grade 2 winner, while MR. MONEY is a Grade 3 winner and placed at the Grade 1 level.

Pace:
There's some cheap speed on the class rise in SLICK SILVER and HOME RUN TRICK, along with the Grade 2-placed PIONEER SPIRIT and listed stakes-winning sprinter BOLDOR. Add in wide-drawn KERSHAW. The pace should be solid and give those from the back a chance, but note that Oaklawn's 1-mile races end at the sixteenth pole finish line and deep closers have to get into gear sooner than usual.

Our Eyes:
Away since winning November's Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs, the 7-year-old TOM'S d'ETAT has had his issues staying healthy. But when he's right, he's been lights-out. He's won 9 of 16 starts for $1.2 million and his last 4 wins have come over 4 different tracks. Don't expect his Oaklawn debut to be an issue about the footing. He takes his track with him when he's on his game. The son of Smart Strike has a good work over the track for this and should be sitting mid-pack -- or a bit more forward -- early with a beneficial post-3 draw.

IMPROBABLE is the field's other Grade 1 winner, but was far less fortunate in his post draw. The 14-hole provides a challenge for any runner in a 2-turn mile like this. But for a horse who has a midpack style, it's particularly difficult. He's not likely fast enough to be gunned to overcome, and not a deep closer to take back. Drayden Van Dyke almost certainly will wind up with a wide trip and IMPROBABLE will have to be best by a good margin to win. This is a horse who has not been particularly professional behind and inside the gate, so watch what happens as he loads last. He was second in last year's Rebel and Arkansas Derby locally, so we know he'll handle the surface here (wet or dry).

MR. MONEY, like IMPROBABLE, has been off since November's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Neither factored in that one to end their sophomore seasons, but MR. MONEY rattled off 4 consecutive graded victories on the 2019 campaign. He should be at home at this distance and get a good trip inside from just off the first flight of runners. I prefer his chances in this spot to IMPROBABLE and you're likely to get a better price in this corner to boot.

PIONEER SPIRIT, SNAPPER SINCLAIR and BANKIT all make their fourth stakes appearances of the Oaklawn meet, re-matched from the Fifth Season, Razorback and Essex. They've traded punches in all 3 with each having the better of their rivals at least once. But with the 0-46 local drought trainer Steve Asmussen has been on of late at Oaklawn (coming into this racing week), you're not out of line for leaning toward Robertino Diodoro's PIONEER SPIRIT. But given the pace scenario and coldness of Asmussen, I'll play against these local stakes veterans. The talented sprinter BOLDOR also fits into that category as part of the pace, and also trained by Asmussen.

FIGHT ON returns from Dubai for a Doug O'Neill barn that's really heated up during the latter part of the Oaklawn meet. He was fourth in this race last year as the 5-2 favorite and has a pair of wins over the track, including a stakes in 2019. He'll be a much bigger price this year than last, but post 13 for his pressing/midpack style will be a tall task for jockey Ramon Vasquez.

Allowance class risers from respected barns abound in MG WARRIOR (Brad Cox), KERSHAW (Phil D'Amato) and LORD GUINESS (Tim Yakteen). KERSHAW ran a career-best last time off a long layoff and has the most talent of the trio. But he's a seemingly need-the-lead type from post 12. MG WARRIOR should be the biggest danger of this group from off the pace over his home track.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:TOM'S d'ETAT has finished in the superfecta in 14 of his last 15 starts and is a classy animal with a good draw.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: LONG RANGE TODDY beat IMPROBABLE in last year's Rebel, but has not started since September's Oklahoma Derby at Remington. He's since changed hands from trainer Steve Asmussen to Dallas Stewart. He's trained quite well for this and could bounce back from poor form late in his 3-year-old season. Trainer Stewart at a big price in big races? We've seen it.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 exacta part-wheel TOM'S d'ETAT over MR. MONEY and LONG RANGE TODDY.
__________________

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)

Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 9:09P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * WHY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MH MIGHT B LEAVIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of t he gate fast. RELENTLESS COWBOY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. TF IMA CORONA CARTEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CELEBRATORI: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
4
WHY
6/1

6/1
9
MH MIGHT B LEAVIN
4/1

7/1
3
RELENTLESS COWBOY
3/1

7/1
1
TF IMA CORONA CARTEL
15/1

8/1
5
CELEBRATORI
12/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
TF IMA CORONA CARTEL
1

15/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
70

89

6.6

0.0

0.0
2
JES WHAT WE WANT
2

10/1
Slow
80

71

8.4

0.0

0.0
3
RELENTLESS COWBOY
3

3/1
Average
90

84

4.2

0.0

0.0
4
WHY
4

6/1
Average
96

85

4.2

0.0

0.0
5
CELEBRATORI
5

12/1
Fast
82

84

2.6

0.0

0.0
6
CLEOPATRA
6

15/1
Slow
67

69

7.6

0.0

0.0
7
TAKINTHECARTELSCASH
7

6/1
Fast
71

72

3.5

0.0

0.0
8
PILOTEN POINT
8

20/1
Average
81

76

4.5

0.0

0.0
9
MH MIGHT B LEAVIN
9

4/1
Fast
83

76

3.3

0.0

0.0
10
UNDRAFTED
10

5/1
Average
90

74

5.0

0.0

0.0
__________________

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)

Claiming $20,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 85 • Purse: $9,170 • Post: 9:44P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS CURLIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHRIS S FAVORITE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KATES FIRST DOWN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAVORITE MONGOOS E: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2
JESS CURLIN
4/1

5/1
5
CHRIS S FAVORITE
2/1

6/1
4
KATES FIRST DOWN
7/2

7/1
6
FAVORITE MONGOOSE
3/1

8/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
CHANCER
1

12/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
74

68

7.4

0.0

0.0
2
JESS CURLIN
2

4/1
Slow
93

88

7.8

0.0

0.0
3
LOOKE AT ME
3

5/1
Average/Trouble-prone
84

78

4.9

0.0

0.0
4
KATES FIRST DOWN
4

7/2
Average
89

78

3.6

0.0

0.0
5
CHRIS S FAVORITE
5

2/1
Average
87

85

4.3

0.0

0.0
6
FAVORITE MONGOOSE
6

3/1
Average
85

79

6.0

0.0

0.0
__________________

Saturday's Best Bet: Proverb a wise choice at Oaklawn Park
By Jarrod Horak
April 11, 2020

Saturday’s 8th race from Oaklawn Park is a $61,000 allowance event for 4-year-olds and up traveling one mile on the main track (Post Time - 5:12 p.m. ET).

#9 PROVERB (9-2) ran well over a wet track in a similar local spot March 19. Saturday’s rider Joel Rosario guided him to a local route maiden win March 2019, and he moved forward in his second start after a layoff that day (same pattern in this spot).

#11 Pickford (7-2) hit the board in his last four starts. His recent numbers are solid and James DiVito excels with his third after a layoff starters.

#3 Mo Gotcha (4-1) removes blinkers and that might be the key to success for him over a route of ground. He has been pulling in his recent starts, and he just needs to relax a bit under his new rider Tyler Baze.

#2 All West (20-1) stretched out and really improved second time out, and Wayne Catalano shows a +ROI with his recent grads trying winners for the first time.

Wagers:

#9 to win

Exacta 9/2-3-11

Exacta 2-3-11/9

Trifecta 9-11/2-3-9-11/2-3-9-11

Recent Best Bet Winners

March 26 - SEVEN NATION ARMY ($5.60)

March 29 - DAPHNE MOON ($5.40), Exacta ($13.80)

March 30 - Okie Queen/Bright Bling/Keena Trifecta ($35.90)

April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)

April 6 - WHOLEHEARTED ($6.40)