Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 4/8/20
By Joe Williams
Ferguson installed as betting favorite vs. Gaethje
UFC 249 is still scheduled to take place on Saturday April 18, 2020 even though the location and venue is yet to be announced.
On Monday April 6, 2020, the UFC announced the entire card via social media.
Tony Ferguson will meet Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title as the main event.
Oddsmakers at FanDuel opened Ferguson as a minus-152 betting favorite (Bet $100 to win $65) while Justin Gaethje was a plus-130 underdog (Bet $100 to win $130).
As of Tuesday April 7, the betting money moved Ferguson to -200 while Gaethje is +170.
Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+
Let's take a closer look at all the odds and provide a quick snapshot of every fight.
UFC 249 Betting Odds
Main Card Outlook
Fights to be shown on ESPN+ PPV
Lightweight Bout: Tony Ferguson (-200) vs. Justin Gaethje (+170)
Ferguson (26-3-0) was expected to face Khabib Nurmagomedov in a much anticipated bout, but that's now off due to the COVID-19 situation. Khabib returned to Russia after training in the United States, and he won't be able to get back to the States. In steps Gaethje (21-2-0) for the main event. Gaethje is certainly no slouch, especially since he lands 8.57 significant strikes per minute with a 55.59 percent significant strike accuracy percentage. However, Ferguson holds an impressive 6 1/2-inch reach advantage, and if he can get the bout down to the mat it's over. Gaethje's game is not on the canvas, while Ferguson has a 42.86 takedown accuracy percentage and 1.40 submission average.
Women's Strawweight Bout: Jessica Andrade (+156) vs. Rose Namajunas (-184)
Andrade (20-7-0) finds herself in a strange position as a rather moderate underdog. 'Bate Estaca' enters the bout after losing the Women's Strawweight title belt against Zhang Weili last time out on Aug. 31, 2019 at UFC Fight Fight, getting dropped in 42 seconds. This will be a rematch of their bout for the strap on May 11, 2019 at UFC 237, a fight which Andrade won via KO/TKO in Round 2 at 2:58. Namajunas (9-4-0) holds a four-inch height advantage, and three-inch reach advantage, and 'The Thug' looks for redemption after losing the strap to Andrade in her most recent bout on May 11, 2019 at UFC 237.
Heavyweight Bout: Greg Hardy (-178) vs. Yorgan de Castro (+150)
The former NFL linebacker turned heavyweight MMA fighter Hardy (5-2-0) holds a five-inch height advantage and a 6 1/2-inch reach against De Castro (6-0-0), who enters with a perfect professional record. 'The Mad Titan', who hails from the Cape Verde Islands, made his UFC debut with a knockout of Justin Tafa at UFC 243 on Oct. 5, 2019. This will easily be the biggest test of his mixed martial arts career, and YDC could find himself a bit overmatched early on.
Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque (-194) vs. Niko Price (+164)
The Brazilian Luque (17-7-1) heads in this one looking to let the fists fly early and often. He holds a distinct advantage in the significant strikes landed per minute (5.18 to 3.06) and significant strike accuracy percentage (53.69 to 34.69) categories. He is also tremendous on the mat, with a big advantage in the takedown accuracy category, as well. Price (14-3-0) has alternated wins and losses in each of his past four bouts, and he lost via submission at UFC Fight Night on Oct. 28, 2017 against Luque, falling in Round 2 at 4:08.
Featherweight Bout: Jeremy Stephens (+196) vs. Calvin Kattar (-235)
The featherweight veteran Stephens (28-17-0) hasn't tasted victory in four bouts, losing three times with one no contest. He suffered a unanimous decision setback to Yair Rodriguez on Oct. 18, 2019 last time out. Kattar is looking to rebound after a unanimous decision loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov at UFC Fight Night on Nov. 9, and he is fallen in two of his past four bouts. Despite the 2-2-0 record across the past four, 'The Boston Finisher' is heavily favored due to his huge advantage in the significant strikes landed per minute (5.12 to 3.09) category.
UFC 249 Betting Odds
Preliminary Card
Fights to be shown on ESPN
Heavyweight Bout: Francis Ngannou (-350) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+280)
Ngannou (14-3-0) heads into this bout with Rozenstruik (10-0-0) with a huge weight and reach advantage. While Rozenstruik tends to throw a lot more punches, he could rain himself out against the more physically fit Ngannou, who also has a tremendous experience advantage. In fact, that category isn't even close. The Cameroon native Ngannou is fighting his way back up the chain after losing his strap at UFC 220 against Stipe Miocic, then falling to Derrick Lewis in the follow-up at UFC 226. Ngannou has rattled off three wins in a row against Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos, all via first-round KO/TKO results, and he'll hand Rozenstruik his first-career setback, too.
Middleweight Bout: Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza (-130) vs. Uriah Hall (+112)
Hall (16-9-0) is a slight underdog against Jacare (26-8-0), but he does have a 7 1/2-inch reach advantage going for him. Souza will be hungry after being beaten in four of his past six outings, including a split-decision loss to Jan Blachowicz on Nov. 16, 2019 in a bout which easily could have gone in his favor. Hall has bounced back with consecutive wins over Antonio Carlos Junior and Bevon Lewis after losing four of five bouts between Nov. 14, 2015 and July 7, 2018.
Lightweight Bout: Alexander Hernandez (-150) vs. Omar Morales (+128)
Hernandez (11-2-0) will take on Morales (9-0-0), who has yet to taste defeat as a professional. While the latter's record is impressive, this will be just his second fight in the UFC, and easily his biggest test to date. Hernandez sacked Francisco Trinaldo last time out on July 20, 2019, bouncing back from a loss to Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone. He has banged with the best of his class, also bouncing Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Beneil Dariush across the past four outings.
Bantamweight Bout: Marlon Vera (+116) vs. Ray Borg (-136)
Borg (13-4-0) will take on Vera (15-5-1) in the bout which might be the most even match of the card. What is in Vera's favor is his distinct advantage in the reach department at 70.5 inches to 63. Borg will be looking to get this fight to the canvas quickly, as he holds a 4.26 to 0.76 takedown average advantage, and a 51.14 to 38.89 advantage in takedown accuracy percentage.
UFC 249 Betting Odds
Preliminary Card
Fights to be shown on ESPN+
Lightweight Bout: Michael Johnson (-184) vs. Khama Worthy (+156)
Johnson (20-15-0) takes on Worthy (15-6-0) early on the card, and the southpaw is looking to rebound after dropping each of his past two bouts, and seven of the past 10. However, losses to Gaethje, Khabib, Nate Diaz and Dariush during that span is certainly nothing to be ashamed about. While Johnson is the highly experience fighter in this match, Worthy will be making just his second-ever appearance in the UFC. He'll be looking to overpower Johnson in a brawl, but look for Johnson's experience to help him win out.
Women's Bantamweight Bout: Sijara Eubanks (-310) vs. Sarah Moras (+250)
Eubanks (5-4-0) and Moras (6-6-0) do not have impressive records overall. However, the American Eubanks is heavily favored over the Canadian Moras due to his tremendous advantage in the sigifnicant strikes landed per minute category (4.77 to 2.04), as well as her dominance in the takedown categories. She holds a 44.44 to 23.81 advantage in takedown accuracy percentage.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ryan Spann (-350) vs. Sam Alvey (+280)
Spann (17-5-0) heads into this one as of the biggest favorites on the card over the veteran Alvey (33-13-0). He has a huge advantage with a 79 1/2 to 75-inch reach advantage over the southpaw Alvey. Spann is also much more effective getting to the mat and working the ground and pound game. Spann enters on a seven-bout win streak, including each of his two UFC matches, although Alvey certainly represents his biggest challenge. Alvey is on a three-bout skid, including a pair of KO/TKO losses.