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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Shooters Alley Streaking runner has aired in three straight, while showing a hint of a rating gear last time, though he looks like a Lone F here, and, while this is a class rise, he fits like a glove on paper and may not even be favored; chalk up another.
#5 Ship Stalker ML favorite just beat AOC foes while predictably improving off the Gonzalez claim, so sure, he hits hard here, but his lack of speed is a worry, as he'll be spotting the pick several lengths when they come off the far turn; second-best.
#6 Smarty Party Papa Tricky read just-missed when 2nd at the level two-back then regressed mightily when dipped to 7.5k last time, so his form is questionable, but the rise is a confident one, and he's another who will benefit from a lack of pace; mixed signals.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML seems a gift on the 7, as he probably should go favored, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, but his real value comes in the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since you can get some guaranteed value by singling him, which will allow for more coverage elsewhere, as he looks to be in a great spot here, and yet a win over the 5 will still knock out a ton of tickets.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 May Flowers Class riser came from nowhere, literally and figuratively to win last time, and while a bounce is entirely possible, note Hall is 6-for-28 on the year, so he knows the score, and at 4-1 or so, the risk-reward to string along will be worth it; call right back.
#3 Extreem Caution The horse to beat stepped up and was a fine 3rd in a local stakes last time, so clearly he's going to hit hard here on the drop into the claiming ranks, and any of his last several runs would make him the winner if the pick regresses; huge chance.
#2 Honey Hearts ML favorite lost to 'Caution last time when 4th, though he did have a terrible start and didn't make the lead, more noteworthy sine he wired his previous three, but he's still slow on figures, which won't scare the top-2; willing to make him prove it.
Race Summary The price should be right on the 5, which helps alleviate the worry about the rise in class, and it's not like either the 2 or 3 are any great shakes, so play him in all the slots, and especially the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since a win by the presumed third-choice will certainly add some value to both sequences.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Harmony Grove Big longshot has been speeding off early and tiring late, so he'll be ignored here, but he's a Lone F on paper, and surely won't have to duel like he did last time, and in a race where the majority of the major contenders have no speed, he might get brave off the far turn; bombs away on the engine.
#4 Gone Preachin Expected favorite is 4-1 on the ML, which is comical since he not only drops in class but is clearly best on figures too, but he also doesn't have any early speed, and therefore if the pick feels like running, this one will be left with a lot to do in the lane, at an underlaid price as well; may run out of room late.
#9 Born Force ML favorite rates as the main danger to the expected chalk off his last two local runs at the level, which netted a win and a 2nd, but note he too is lacking any early speed, which essentially makes him look like a poor man's version of 'Preachin, who himself might not even get there; tread very lightly here.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's not a lot here to keep the 2 from making the point without have to work too hard, and that's how 20-1 upsets have been known to happen, so don't overlook him in all the slots, and especially to end the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since he's going to be completely ignored, which means a win would absolutely blow up both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Ye Be Judged Has done little wrong in two starts so far, and he's got enough speed to find a forward spot on the move around two turns today.
#7 Backchatter Solid score last out when stretching around two turns locally, and a repeat of that might be enough to get the job done with these.
#2 Kat Dude Never picked up in the local debut, but he's probably capable of something better than that in this spot. Still, not sure I'd be too excited about him at something like the 5/2 ML when he was no threat at 14/1 last out.
Race Summary Ye Be Judged should get a good run of things from close range as he moves around two turns, and that seems to be the biggest question with two really sharp one-turn races to his credit.

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Where's Rufus Likely chalk wasn't embarrassed with better in the local debut, and he can put that early pace to use again while facing a softer bunch today.
#9 Ohtani Finished about five lengths behind the top choice in that same common race, but it still might be the kind of effort that keeps him in line for a piece of this on the drop.
#6 Cliff's Place Has proven capable of big thing at similar trips based on the two-back run, but he was overmatched last out with better. Would want him on the tickets.
Race Summary First leg of the MANDATORY Pick-5 payout that should have a huge pool in this current climate with no other serious racing happening today. The top trio all seem capable, and this has the look of the kind of race where you can single the top choice or go three-deep. I'll opt for the latter.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Spotitude Can't imagine anything close to the 8/1 ML offering, even after this guy was a distant third with similar at 6/5. Either of his last two tries would probably be good enough to handle this group.
#2 El Diablo Grande Figures in line for another good trip near the top, but he has been in great spots in each of his last five races and failed to seal the deal. Can he win? Yes, but he seems more likely to stick around underneath while fading a bit late.
#4 Getaway Driver Showed nothing last out when trying better, but he has run well enough over the local footing in the past to think there might be a bounce-back effort in store today.
Race Summary Another race where I wouldn't argue with anyone trying to take a stand with Spotitude or El Diablo Grande, but I think a couple others have claims here, too, including Getaway Driver and maybe #9 Panic Button on deeper tickets in today's mandatory Pick-5 payout.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Seattle Thunder Won going two turns last time and can get a fast pace set-up here; he's faced with many sprinters and should be able to pick them off in the stretch.
#1 Miltontown Gutted out a nice allowance win the slop here last time and has the class to be a power player this time around as well.
#4 Taruca Just missed last out and can be a forward player for every jump of this; has won going two turns.
Race Summary Seattle Thunder gets an ideal pace in front of him today, faces many that are suspect going long, and can bring the late heat.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #0
Picks Notes
#4 Nym Closed with a rush and won going away at Sam Houston; has the best closing move and can be up in time vs. these.
#3 Sand Harbor Turns back from longer races and should be able to benefit from others setting a rapid pace; should enjoy his return to the dirt.
#1 Hollywood Square Battled most of his latest at Turf Paradise before tired from sharing in fast fractions; likely to be in the mix from the start.
Race Summary Nym has the best closing move and has been in good form since November; can take dead aim at a fast pace and likely will have drive to the wire.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes
#2 Cataroux Tired in a good spot last time out, which was his 1st since May; had won three of four local starts going into that one and should be able to show a lot of improvement in his return.
#9 Royal Creed Comes in off a gate-to-wire score at Turf Paradise and can press from the start; has done a lot of traveling and can be a factor in his 1st one at WRD.
#8 Rocky Boy Indian Won a N3L ran two back at Turf Paradise and then ran a decent 4th vs. much better there; can stalk them today and should be tough late.
Race Summary Cataroux badly needed his last start and he tired in a tough heat; well placed in his return.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Fonner Park - Race #1 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,100 Class Rating: 54

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 GO CHIVA GO (ML=6/1)
#7 ALPINE EMPIRE (ML=5/2)

GO CHIVA GO - Based on the information I have, he's a strong closer. May be worth a few bucks. The morning line odds on this horse are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Gourneau. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Last race was at Belterra Park in a race with a class number of 62. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position right here. ALPINE EMPIRE -

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SLEEPY TURTLE (ML=3/1), #2 DOCTOR HOT (ML=4/1), #3 PIT FIRE (ML=8/1),

SLEEPY TURTLE - Mediocre speed figure last time out at Fonner Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race. DOCTOR HOT - 4/1 is too low of a price to take on this participant. PIT FIRE - I foresee disappointment for this animal in this event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ALPINE EMPIRE - This gelding takes a big tumble in the Equibase class rating department from a rating of 67 down to 54. Strong contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 GO CHIVA GO on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,550 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE (ML=5/2)

CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE - Diodoro brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Rider hops back aloft after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a good indicator. A winning percent like 32 is outstanding for any rider/trainer pair. A pony coming back this promptly after a solid race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GO FOR JIM (ML=2/1), #4 SPICY LEGACY (ML=5/1), #1 WOODS OF CONGAREE (ML=6/1),

GO FOR JIM - Difficult to bet on this mount in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint affair before you bet on him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. SPICY LEGACY - In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs lately. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced equine. WOODS OF CONGAREE - Disappointing speed figure last time out at Will Rogers Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE - After a layoff, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this animal to perform well right here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with 8

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23760 Class Rating: 67

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MR MISLEADING 10/1

# 3 NOVEMBER MIKE 2/1

# 4 WHAT THINKING 3/1

MR MISLEADING looks like the wager in here especially at a such a nice price. Could provide positive dividends based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 59. I like Sanchez on this colt to give him a solid chance to hit the wire first. Is a definite contender - given the 59 speed rating from his most recent race. NOVEMBER MIKE - Recent figures for the jock - 23 win percent - make this colt stand out in this group. Luzzi will almost certainly be able to get this colt to break out early for this event. WHAT THINKING - With a sound 53 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. This animal is at the top in this group of horses in this race in earnings per start at the distance/surface.
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