Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 4/5/20
Sunday's Best Bet: Italian Justice ready to rule at Oaklawn Park
By Jarrod Horak
April 4, 2020
Sunday's 5th race from Oaklawn Park is a $16,000 claiming event for fillies and mares which have never won three races. They will be dashing six furlongs on the main track (Post Time 4:06 p.m. EDT).
#10 ITALIAN JUSTICE (4-1) fired trifecta shots in her last six starts (2 wins). She exits a wide show finish from the outside post in a similar local spot and William Martin has excellent stats with his second after a claim starters.
#7 Sweet Carli (5-2) exits an easy flat mile turf score at Fair Grounds vs. $15k claimers. She fired in all three starts since Brad Cox claimed her for $30k, and she finished in the top three in all four starts at this distance. Joe Talamo wins races with this barn and she should be forwardly placed.
#9 True Castle (7-2) dropped into a $16k/2L spot March 27 and pulled clear after dueling for the first half-mile or so. She likes this distance and owns running style versatility.
#4 M and M Girl (8-1) added blinkers and showed improved early speed in a runner-up finish in a local $8k claimer March 6. That was her first start after the Robertino Diodoro claim and barn money rider David Cohen strings along.
Wagers:
#10 to win
Exacta 10/4-7-9
Exacta 4-7-9/10
Recent Best Bet Winners
March 26 - SEVEN NATION ARMY ($5.60)
March 29 - DAPHNE MOON ($5.40), Exacta ($13.80)
March 30 - Okie Queen/Bright Bling/Keena Trifecta ($35.90)
April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)
Sunday's Horse Racing Picks for US based tracks
April 5, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
We will stay busy at Gulfstream Park on Saturday as they offer up a 12-race card that gets underway at 12:45 ET.
By the time the seventh race at Gulfstream Park went official on Saturday I was ready to jump out the office window. Things were not going well at all.
I considered making a few calls looking for a ventilator, as my bankroll was barely breathing and in desperate need of a stimulus plan that I did not think was coming.
There was a sequence of races from the fifth to the seventh where the winners paid $71.20, $36.00 and $42.80 and I did not give any of the trio even a slight chance of winning.
The Pick 3 for those races returned $10,952.50 for a .50 cent ticket.
Things did not get any better in the eighth race where I whiffed again. Then things finally turned around with my top pick Silvery Enough paying $14.40 and we hit the recommended exacta that returned $133.80.
The very next race the recommended exacta paid $74.40.
I also thankfully played the Late Pick 4, in which my top pick along with three of my second choices returned $637.60 for $1.
It was a good finish to a really mediocre day overall, and the good thing about racing is we are right back at it today with a solid 11 race card at Gulfstream Park.
FS2 picks up the action from 1:30 to 3:00 ET and then FS1 will televise three hours of horse racing at 3:00 ET. The NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 7:00 ET.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (1:00 ET)
#10 Queen Letizia 6-1
#11 Tumbadora 8-5
#5 Water Wizard 9-2
#1 Silver Nina 10-1
Analysis: Queen Letizia was badly outrun in her debut at 12-1 in a field of 12 going a mile on turf against $25,000 foes. She drops in for $12,500 and looks more suited to the main track. She is by Khozan out of a Silver Buck mare. Junior takes the call for the capable Barboza barn and this gal should be a fair price in this spot off her ugly looking debut effort.
Tumbadora tracked the early pace and tired to finish sixth in her debut. She was claimed out of the race for $25,000 by the Joseph barn hat is 40% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She gets jammed in here for a $12,500 tag and the barn puts them in where they can win. She has four works on the morning tab since landing in this high % barn and she figures to be tough here as the likely short priced favorite.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 1,5,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 1,5,10,11 / 1,5,7,10,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 8 Md Sp Wt (4:41 ET)
#10 Reliability 12-1
#6 Voodoo Zip 5-2
#11 Shamrocket 6-1
#3 Scanno 9-2
Analysis: Reliability adds blinkers here for his second career start her for the Jerkens barn. The colt made his debut over good ground going a mile here where he was last early and raced wide throughout in a fifth-place finish at 11-1. The colt has a solid turf pedigree, by Tapit out of the turf stakes winner Announce ($446,750) who has dropped three other foals to race, all winners including a pair of turf winners. Looking for this guy to move forward and he should be a decent price in this spot.
Voodoo Zip has run second in back to back races for the Gargan barn that has been on fire in '20, hitting at a 39% clip overall. Last out the colt prompted the early pace, opened up heading for home but could not hold off the winner. Two back he was beaten just a nose in a race that has produced four next out winners including the winner Gufo, who beat Alw-1 optional claimers in his next outing here on March 27. The obvious one to beat here.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 3,6,10,11
TRI: 6,10 / 3,6,10,11 / 3,4,6,10,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:06 CT)
#4 Bank 6-1
#2 Golden Notion 5-2
#7 Major Attraction 7-2
#6 Derby Date 3-1
Analysis: Bank makes his first start since last October at the fall Keeneland meeting where he was not off cleanly and was a non-factor in a seventh-place finish. He showed some promise in his debut at Churchill Downs two back with a third-place finish behind a pair of next out winners. The winner South Bend won his next two starts including the Street Sense. The runner up Answer In ran second in the Springboard Mile and third in the Southwest (G3). The Asmussen barn takes over and is 18% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. This guy is out of a Gone West mare that has dropped four winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Brilliant Speed ($1.2 million).
Golden Notion chased the early pace and finishes evenly in a third-place finish last out as the beaten favorite. This colt has now been the beaten chalk in three of his four starts, landing in the money in all four outings. Cox now tries addling blinkers on this guy. The colt makes his second start off the bench here for a barn that is 28% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making his second start off a +180-day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Silver Nina 10-1
R7: #2 Mystic Nile 12-1
R8: #10 Reliability 12-1
R9: #7 Unlockthepotential 15-1
R11: #8 Aguas Coloradas 8-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 6
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager $1 Pick Three
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $7,650 • Post: 7:10P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SC DIVAS CARTEL MAN: A first time starter with a trainer that has a win percentage with first time starters of at least 25 (minimum 10 starts). Horse is a first time starter and its sire' s win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). STRANGE FELLOW: Horse is a first time starter and its mare's win percentage with first timers is at least 50.
4
SC DIVAS CARTEL MAN
7/2
4/1
1
STRANGE FELLOW
2/1
8/1
6
FLY THE COUP
6/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
Unknown Running Style: STRANGE FELLOW (2/1) [Jockey: Mendez Cruz - Trainer: Flores Jose Antonio], IVANS STREAKIN BYE (10/1) [Jockey: Andrade Jr Oscar - Trainer: Andrade Elena], SUITE ENCOUNTER (20/1) [Jockey: Suarez Guillermo - Trainer: Mendoza Jesus
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 6
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 6-11)
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 3:37P
(RAIL AT 60 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GOTTA GO MO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOTTA GO MO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. I'M PRAYINGFORTHAT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MANE ATTRACTION: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the la st ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
GOTTA GO MO
7/2
3/1
4
I'M PRAYINGFORTHAT
10/1
5/1
8
MANE ATTRACTION
10/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
GOTTA GO MO
1
7/2
Front-runner
80
76
106.2
70.2
64.7
4
I'M PRAYINGFORTHAT
4
10/1
Front-runner
70
72
82.6
66.3
59.8
6
SUNNYMEDE DREAM
6
8/1
Front-runner
76
76
73.9
59.7
50.7
8
MANE ATTRACTION
8
10/1
Alternator/Stalker
84
72
67.6
69.4
61.4
5
AVUNCULAR
5
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
80
77
62.0
60.5
51.0
3
NO NO NINA
3
4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
43.6
41.7
32.2
7
EMPIRE MOON
7
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
30.3
48.3
39.3
9
MEADOW BEAUTY
9
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Unknown Running Style: BACKSIDE BEAUTY (6/1) [Jockey: Lebron Victor - Trainer: Rivelli Larry], LEFTATTHEALTAR (10/1) [Jockey: Zayas Edgard J - Trainer: Wilkes Ian R].
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