Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 4/5/20

Gjelstad and Norheim, founders of the Trademate Sports model

The model has revealed strong money line picks.

Nicaragua Primera Division

Sunday, April 5

ART Jalapa v. Chinandega (6 p.m. ET)

Money line: ART Jalapa -200

Against the spread: At -0.5, back ART Jalapa.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: ART Jalapa 2, Chinandega 0

Walter Ferretti v. Real Esteli (7 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +210

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Walter Ferretti.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Walter Ferretti 1, Real Esteli 1
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TERRY TURRELL LOS ALAMITOS QUARTERS HANDICAP, SUNDAY, APRIL 5, 2020

FIRST POST IS 5 PM

FIRST RACE

#3 HAVASU HUNNI runner up in her last three starts while well backed in all was claimed back by trainer Sergio Morfin with jockey Juan Sanchez retaining the assignment. #5 CLEAN LIVING took clear lead into deep stretch tiring late to be second as the odds-on choice facing similar, win would not surprise. #6 ROCK ALL DAY on the shelf since November 2018 has steady work tab Los Alamitos indicating fitness for comebacker, outside post in field of six a plus. Longshot - #2 FORESWT WILDFLOWER

SECOND RACE

#2 NIETZSCHE ran well three back finishing third facing much tougher during the LRC meet, steady work tab in March and trainer Vann Belvoir will enlist the services of jockey Ramon Guce tonight. #4 GOV FROM ABOVE broke poorly losing all chance over a good Santa Anita surface, drops notch and trainer Art Sherman has a positive ROI with maidens making their second start. #3 GEOCAS STREET broke poorly failing to fire in his career debut for trainer Lorenzo Ruiz, homebased Los Alamitos. Longshot - #1 CAUSE AND EFFECT

THIRD RACE

#5 CAPTAIN N. BARRON tumbles in class from three tries facing tougher 870-yard competition and worked 35 flat Mar 29 proving best of seventeen for the morning. #6 HOSS CARTWRIGHT bumped at the start then checked hard in traffic losing all chance, moved from fifth to fourth through disqualification, chance to make amends. #4 LEEDSLIMIT hits hard at this level and seldom misses a check figures for nice check with his best. Longshot - #1 WHATAHANDSOMECAT

FOURTH RACE

#6 RAUL ROSAS making first start in over a year this seven-year-old gelding won impressively testing the turf for the first time, trainer Dean Pederson will give a leg up to jockey Vinnie Bednar, draws the outside post in field of six with speed to control this field. #1 PHARR quick gelding won impressively in flag to wire fashion as the odds on choice for the Lopez/Guce team, will be out winging early to gain position. #2 MR. ESKEN will get perfect stalk and pounce trip with a guaranteed quick pace. Longshot - #3 ENCOUNTRESS

FIFTH RACE

#2 YOUR ADORABLE shipped down from Northern California and recorded her first career victory Los Alamitos under the lights, facing winners for the first time and spotted at a competitive level. #5 DF BANISTER SISTER her two starts Remington Park in 2019, third start and first 2020 start Turf Paradise, fourth start and first over the Los Alamitos surface she finished fourth in better then looked effort, reunited with winning jockey Christian Aragon. #4 DAIRY KID home based Los Alamitos she returns to the Robert Lucas barn after a runner up effort Turf Paradise. Longshot - #1 GODDESS APHRODITE

SIXTH RACE

#7 EL KATIE CARTEL two-year-old in the Jorge Farias barn recorded a 12.2 bullet work Mar 19 proving best of eighteen, jockey Armano Cervantes aboard and the outside post earns him top billing over the other Flores trainer runner, Strange Fellow, who draws the rail. #4 SC DIVAS CARTEL MAN worked 12.3 Feb 25 proving second best of thirty six for the morning, trainer Mike Robbins and jockey Oscar Peinado have a profitable winning percentage. #1 STRANGE FELLOW the other runner in the Jose Flores barn also turned in a bullet work Mar 19, jockey Cruz Mendez aboard, rail draw concern. Longshot - #6 FLY THE COUP

SEVENTH RACE

#3 JESS A COWBOY two wins and two times second from his last four starts, thirteen wins from forty lifetime starts and favored five times from his last six starts, class merits top billing. #1 BF FARMHAND exits same heat as the top choice finishing third beat three-quarters for the money, he has improved in each of his three 2020 starts and primed for big effort. #2 FOR SWEET JESS has recorded fifteen wins from thirty-nine career starts and has won his last two for trainer Lindolfo Diaz and jockey Jesus Ayala. Longshot - #5 JESS ZOOMIN SENATOR

EIGHTH RACE

#2 UP AND COMING five wins from nine career starts for high percent conditioner Chris O’Dell and jockey Eduardo Nicasio and will improve off needed race earning top billing in The James S Smith Memorial Handicap. #1 PAY ME IN FRONT better than last indicates and he will use a Flipping Halter tonight. #7 MAXIMO II served notice with sharp flag to wire victory at 300-yards, assured a clean trip drawing the outside post in field of seven. Longshot - #3 SOUNDS GOOD

Best Chance Bet – NIETZSCHE (2)
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

04/05/20, GP, Race 6, 3.37 ET
04/05/20,GP,6,5F [Turf] 00:53:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $45,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five Furlongs) (Rail at 60 feet).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Avuncular 9/2 Rosario J Clement Christophe JF 34.96 1.37/$1
099.01 1 Gotta Go Mo 7/2 Saez L Kimmel John C. S 75.00 1.70/$1
098.22 3 No No Nina 4-1 Gaffalione T Clement Christophe C 25.00 0.59/$1
095.71 2 Backside Beauty 6-1 Lebron V Rivelli Larry 25.00 0.59/$1
094.85 6 Sunnymede Dream 8-1 Panici L Schuh Tim EL 25.00 0.59/$1
094.47 9 Meadow Beauty 15-1 Davis D Casse Mark E. 25.00 0.59/$1
094.30 8 Mane Attraction 10-1 Fuentes M Levy Tamara L. 25.00 0.59/$1
094.18 10 Leftatthealtar 10-1 Zayas E J Wilkes Ian R. 60.00 1.88/$1
093.95 4 I'm Prayingforthat 10-1 Vasquez M A Abreu Fernando 25.00 0.59/$1
092.92 7 Empire Moon 15-1 Gonzalez S Delgado Gustavo W 25.00 0.59/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.98, ROI 0.99/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Avuncular 9/2 Rosario J Clement Christophe JFE 26.52 0.71/$1
097.59 1 Gotta Go Mo 7/2 Saez L Kimmel John C. S 36.51 1.15/$1
097.25 3 No No Nina 4-1 Gaffalione T Clement Christophe C 26.52 0.71/$1
096.86 6 Sunnymede Dream 8-1 Panici L Schuh Tim L 26.52 0.71/$1
095.30 10 Leftatthealtar 10-1 Zayas E J Wilkes Ian R. 26.52 0.71/$1
095.14 7 Empire Moon 15-1 Gonzalez S Delgado Gustavo TW 26.52 0.71/$1
095.02 2 Backside Beauty 6-1 Lebron V Rivelli Larry 26.52 0.71/$1
094.94 9 Meadow Beauty 15-1 Davis D Casse Mark E. 26.52 0.71/$1
094.54 8 Mane Attraction 10-1 Fuentes M Levy Tamara L. 26.52 0.71/$1
093.92 4 I'm Prayingforthat 10-1 Vasquez M A Abreu Fernando 26.52 0.71/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 24.32, ROI 0.52/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE

04/05/20, OP, Race 1, 1.05 CT
04/05/20,OP,1,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:40:01 CLAIMING. Purse $18,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 5, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 5, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, if for $8,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Bella Alicita 4-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. SF 33.33 1.26/$1
097.65 7 Conformation 6-1 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino T 33.33 1.26/$1
097.14 3 Lady Cleopatra 8-1 Talamo J Amoss Thomas M. L 33.33 1.26/$1
097.04 5 Operatic 5/2 Mojica O Deville Carl J. W 33.33 1.26/$1
096.52 6 She Might Tell 7/2 Hill C McKnight Norman EC 39.84 1.27/$1
095.55 1 Check Six 5-1 Garcia M Hollendorfer Jerry J 34.65 1.15/$1
095.23 8 Moonlight Train 12-1 Quinonez L S Shorter Aaron 33.33 1.26/$1
092.25 2 Grats Road 15-1 Elliott S Vance David R. 34.65 1.15/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.63, ROI 1.23/$1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,250 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SHE'S GOT MOVES (ML=7/2)
#7 WORLDS APART (ML=9/2)

SHE'S GOT MOVES - When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Garcia and Sweezey have been fantastic together. Sophisticated handicappers will tell you that this animal has strong pace. I'm focusing on the class of this mount, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. In this race here, this magnificent animal has registered the highest Equibase speed fig at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. WORLDS APART - Jock hops back aboard after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding last out. That's always a green light. Coming off a sixth place finish at Tampa Bay Downs, some may pass this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning odds today. Another way to evaluate class is earnings per start. This racer has the top in the group. I think she'll be close at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BACI (ML=5/2), #5 TIZ HER WAY (ML=4/1), #9 FORTUNATE CAT (ML=5/1),

BACI - Hard to bet on at 5/2 odds after the last two efforts. TIZ HER WAY - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but she falls short frequently. FORTUNATE CAT - This runner didn't go to the front and didn't close ground down the stretch last time she ran.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 SHE'S GOT MOVES on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
1 with 7 with [3,9,11] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[1,7] with [1,7] with [3,9,11,13] with [3,9,11,13] with [3,9,11,13] Total Cost: $48
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 JAMES'S MOONSHINE (ML=4/1)
#11 J'S LITTLE MAN (ML=8/1)

JAMES'S MOONSHINE - Elliott rode this thoroughbred for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time around. Hartman will try adding the 'hood' today in hopes of an improved performance. J'S LITTLE MAN - I just may give this one a shot. Should improve off last race where he did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the end. Ran a less than stellar race at Oaklawn Park last time out. Racing with the benefit of a fast track puts this colt at the top of my list of contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 PRIVATE LAKE (ML=3/1), #14 BRAVURA CREEK (ML=7/2), #4 RADICATOR (ML=9/2),

PRIVATE LAKE - Trying to beat this participant this time around at the reward of 3/1. BRAVURA CREEK - Not a perfect 'spot' in this event. RADICATOR - Hard to play any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance. Difficult to invest in any horse in a short distance affair at 9/2 when he hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last couple of months. Pace is so critical, and this speed merchant is going to have a speed battle on his hands. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a questionable contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 JAMES'S MOONSHINE is going to be the play if we are getting 6/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $11250 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 TIZAPRINCESSA 2/1

# 4 ALYDARIUS 8/1

# 1 CLASSY OF COURSE 4/1

TIZAPRINCESSA is the strongest wager in this race. Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. This racer has a excellent win percentage in turf routes. Posted a decent Equibase speed fig last time out. ALYDARIUS - With a formidable 75 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Gaffney has well above average gains at this distance/surface. CLASSY OF COURSE - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 80 - of her last affair. Looks like a formidable contender for the exotics.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $11900 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DM SHEZ POPPIN OFF 3/1

# 4 BROOKSTONE K 10/1

# 10 GLITTER AND GOLD 4/1

I give my vote to DM SHEZ POPPIN OFF here. Has very good speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Has been racing admirably in races of this distance, going 4 out of 13 under similar conditions. BROOKSTONE K - He should definitely be given consideration given the solid speed figures. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Seaton running at this distance are the best in this field. GLITTER AND GOLD - Could beat this field given the 74 speed figure recorded in her last outing. I can't pass on this filly given one of the best rider and handler combos on the grounds.
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/05/20

April 5, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Sunday, April 5, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Awesome Evil; 5-Water Wizard; 11-Tumbadora

Forecast: The Sunday program begins with another one of those first-off-the-claim class droppers from the S. Joseph, Jr., barn that looks tough to beat. Tumbadora, taken out of her debut in February for $25,000 in a race in which she flashed early speed for a half before packing it in, returns in a very soft spot for stable that hits a remarkable 40% (with massive flat-bet profit) with this angle, and from her outside post against this modest group she should have every chance to show her true abilities. The daughter of Awesome Again removes blinkers (love the angle), but at 8/5 on the morning line there won’t be much value to be found. Those trying to beat the favorite should consider Awesome Evil and Water Wizard in rolling exotic play. ‘Evil has shown nothing in two starts since joining the P. Walder barn but picks up a stronger rider (V. Lebron) could improve enough with patient tactics to make some noise at 15-1 on the morning line. ‘Wizard (9/2) is gradually improving with experience and will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. A little certain will go a long way in this bottom-rung affair.
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RACE 2: Post 1:31 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-La Cara Bonita; 9-Swirling Candy

Forecast: La Cara Bonita and Swirling Candy couldn’t be separated when dead-heating for third in a starter optional $25,000 claiming turf sprint last month and they are tough to differentiate right back in this restricted (nw-2) $20,00 seller over the same course and distance. For whatever it’s worth (probably not much), there’s a two pound weight shift in favor of Swirling Candy, but perhaps more significant is that she’s the quicker of the two and has the option of popping and going from her outside draw or stalking and pouncing. The speed figure that she earned when graduating two runs back is considerably better than par for this level; however in that race she was able to smoothly establish the pace while in her last outing (and today as well) that kind of easy front-running trip might not be so readily available. La Cara Bonita is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez and projects to be prominent throughout – perhaps right behind the leaders – and then have her chance to kick home through the lane. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Swirling Candy.
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RACE 3: Post 2:05 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Kiffle; 3-Nothings Free; 6-Baby Ice

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in the third race, a main track $10,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares. Kiffle drops to her lowest level ever after flashing speed and then fading in a $25,000 seller two-turning on grass in late December. First or second in nine of 12 career starts, retaining T. Gafflione, and returning to her preferred distance and surface, the daughter of Take Charge Indy makes her first start since being transferred to the the R. Hess, Jr. barn and has only one way to go from her 2-hole draw. Her best chance for a gate-to-wire performance most likely depends on how much early pressure Nothins Free, drawn just to her right, can apply. Listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and freshened since mid-January, the veteran Flat Out mare shortens from a couple of one-turn mile efforts and always has been most effective on the front end. Can she stalk and win if the situation dictates? Baby Ice, certain to be the beneficiary of an early pace duel should one materialize, projects into an ideal second flight position and then have every chance to wear down the leaders when it counts. She’s moving up in class while seeking her third straight score but is a genuine and consistent race mare with the perfect style this six and one-half furlong trip.
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RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Cryogenic

Forecast: Crogenic is in good form for M. Maker, switches to the barn’s go-to rider L. Saez, and has an ideal second flight, stalking style for this five furlong turf trip. First or second in 11 of 23 career starts, the son of Soldat remains protected in this Florida-bred first-level allowance optional claimer and is logically the one to beat at 8/5 on the morning line. He may wind up being a bit too short to play in the win pool but we can use him as a short-price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post 3:08 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Starship Voyager; 8-Seayouatthebreakers

Forecast: This is an intriguing Florida-bred maiden sprint for fillies and mares. Starship Voyager is a first-time starter bred to win early (Big Drama) and with a series of promising workouts on her resume. A good, athletic mover with a touch of quality, she’s listed at 10-1 on the morning line for a low jockey-trainer combo, so her price (10-1 morning line) should remain reasonable. The rail always is a concern with a debut runner but if she manages to break cleanly and work out a decent trip, she has a chance to produce an upset score. New Yorker shipper Seayouatthebreakers, away since May of last year when she displayed good speed in a couple of maiden special weight outings at Belmont Park, lands the comfortable outside box and J. Rosario following a series of decent drills that should have plenty fit. The daughter of Hard Spun is 4-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower than that. Preference on top – especially at the price – goes to Starship Voyager but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Gotta Go Mo; 2-Backside Beauty; 3-No No Nina

Forecast: This is a challenging five furlong turf sprint for open maiden fillies and mares. Backside Beauty, a first-timer by Orb, brought $150,000 in the OBS April sale last year after impressing in the preview session when she breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds. The L. Rivelli barn has excellent stats with debut runners and V. Libron is one of the stable’s go-to riders, so this half-sister to multiple New York-bred stakes winner Temper Mint Patty looks extremely live at 6-1 on the morning line. No No Nina, bred to most effective on grass (More Than Ready), missed her chance on the lawn when her debut race was transferred to the main track last month. The C. Clement-trained filly received some backing (3-1), but after flashing a bit of early speed she steadily retreated and wound up a distance fourth. With T. Gafflione riding her back, we’ll give her another chance for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters. Gotta Go Mo probably can’t beat a real good filly but it apparently it takes a decent sort to beat her. Still a maiden after five starts but in the frame in her last pair over this course and distance, the daughter of Uncle Mo must leave well from her rail post and is likely to have a big say in the matter if she does. She’s not yet achieved a speed figure equal to or better than par for this level, so improvement may be needed, but experience is in her corner.
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RACE 7: Post 4:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Subsidiary; 6-Sky Chaser

Forecast: Sky Chaser has been chasing tougher without much success lately, but this drop into the $20,000 claiming ranks could return her to winning form. Successful twice over the local main track, she’s reunited with “win rider” M. A. Vasquez after a brief freshening and can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position. Subsidiary, in her second off a layoff for M. Casse (very strong stats with this angle), missed as the favorite when fading late to wind up a distant second in a $25,000 sprint last month. She’s switches to T. Gaffalione and should produce a forward move but based on pure numbers we have to prefer Sky Chaser on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Voodoo Zip

Forecast: Voodoo Zip, in the frame in all three of his career starts with rising speed figures in each outing, appears ready to graduate in this maiden special weight turf miler for 3-year-olds. Drawing a better post today after leaving from the far outside when nosed out in his most recent start, the D. Gargan-trained colt has a good stalking style and should have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. T. Gaffalione stays aboard and knows him well, so let’s make the son of City Zip a win play and rolling exotic at or near his morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 9: Post 5:12 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Rhythmia; 6-Proven Strategies; 9-Roman Empire

Forecast: This first-level state-bred allowance middle distance turf affair came up stronger than par, with at least three legitimate contenders. Proven Strategies just broke his maiden in sharp fashion with a good pace-stalking trip, and with continued improvement the son of Sky Mesa may be capable of taking this class hike in stride. His speed figures are rising with each outing and another forward move is likely to today. Rhythmia remains protected by S. Joseph, Jr., who took this gelding for $20,000 two runs back and clearly still likes this hard-hitting son of Majestic Warrior, who will be making his first start since mid-January. Very competitive at this level based on speed figures, he lands the good rail and can be expected to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Roman Empire, the most dangerous true closer in the field, will have his chances promoted if he gets legitimate fractions to chase. The son of Empire Maker crushed a soft Florida-bred maiden field on dirt last time out after flashing ability routing on grass when third in his debut, so if he continues to progress, the T. Pletcher-trained colt could be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 10: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Up in Smoke; 7-Midtown Rose

Forecast: Up in Smoke is a perfect two-for-two in her young career, both wins accomplished with complete authority against state-bred competition. In her most recent start, she broke well and was close up in the opening furlong, drifted back to last while appearing to be completely beaten at the quarter pole, then suddenly took hold wide and roared by her rivals to win as tons best. We’ll find out what she’s made of today in open company but one thing’s for sure, she can’t pull that same stunt against this group and get away with. On pure speed figures she’s a fit, but certainly not a standout. Midtown Rose lands the cozy outside post and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip in a field without an abundance of early zip. Second while well-clear of the rest in a similar spot last month, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained filly earned a monster speed figure three runs back when graduating over this track and distance but then didn’t come close to that number in her two subsequent outings. She’s the 9/5 morning line favorite and based on the projected pace flow probably deserves to be.
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RACE 11: Post 4:49 ET. Grade:
Use: 5-Catnip Kitten; 7-Got the Gist; 8-Aguas Coloradas; 10-Chiclet’s Dream

Forecast: The finale is a grass gab bag for low-level claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as your budget allows. Catnip Kitten is winless in eight starts over the local lawn but she ran very well at this level when second last time out and switches to J. Rosario. With good racing luck she seems capable of getting up in time. Got the Gist, away since the summer when she was racing at Suffolk Downs, returns for the high percentage G. Baxter barn (solid with comebackers) and lands L. Saez. She’s won fresh in the past, seems to be training well, and is dangerous off the bench. Aguas Coloradas is a Tampa Bay shipper with rising numbers and a previous win over this course. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is lightly raced with further improvement possible and certainly worth including at 8-1 on the morning line. Chiclet’s Dream is a first-off-the-claim play leaving the C. Brown barn for a low percentage outfit and must leave from the 10-hole going a mile. She’s coming off a win but didn’t beat much and won’t offer any value at 3-1 on the morning line, so you can use as a back-up or a saver but nothing more than that.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 Agripino Speedster has been tiring in his races but gets Suarez back and he held him almost to the line last time, and is a definite Lone F here; finally forgets to stop.
#1 Lord Byron Class dropper didn't fire off the Allen claim but is back with friends here, drew perfectly, and adds blinkers for a bit more early focus; seems the one to beat.
#6 City Guy Dangerous sort makes his first turf start for Bennett, and the Sar run makes him a big threat, but the dirt return was awful, so there are issues here; tread lightly.
Race Summary We've got a wide open race and the pick is a loose leader, and that's never a bad thing, and while he's been tiring lately the jock switch is key, and the risk-reward will be there, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win is going to knock out a lot of tickets, as there are several other viable candidates.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 She's Got Moves MSW dropper was facing eons better on the turf at FG for Howard, and new trainer Sweezey won with a newcomer from this barn Friday, and has been very hot here lately; look out.
#9 Fortunate Cat GP invader didn't fire against Fl-bred MSW gals sprinting on the dirt in her bow, and behind a filly who will win stakes, and the turf and stretchout may wake her up here; major player.
#3 Baci The best of the proven fillies at the level was a solid 4th from a bad draw last time, so she gets some post relief here, though the top-2 won't be impressed by that run; underneath only.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML seems very robust on a gal who should be favored here off her turf races, especially for her new trainer who has been winning in droves of late, so play her aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, though you can get some built-in value by singling her in the early Pk5/Pk4, since she looks spotted to score, and won't have to improve much, if at all, off her prior turf runs to beat a group like this.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#10 Speeding Starlet Expected favorite has the best recent form here and now goes off the claim for Caruso, which is a 20% move, so if she improves, the rest are in deep water; love her chances here.
#4 Lady Love Logical sort drops slightly in class and ran a solid 3rd last time in her dirt return, should have plenty of foundation on the cutback, and will offer a hint of value too; the main danger.
#8 Cocktail Skirt Tricky read looks like loose speed here but her return was awful, and you know Carrasco didn't claim her on the turf in July to wait until March to run her on the dirt; mixed signals.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML seems like a huge overlay on the 10, who looks more like 2-1 or 5-2 against this group, with the expected improvement for her sharp new trainer, so play her aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, though you can maximize her value by singling her in the late Pk5/Pk4, which will allow for more coverage in the surrounding legs, as she looks primed in this one.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Astrologer Forward player doesn't meet a ton of other pace in this spot, and he can find a good position from the inside. Price will be right to give him a look back.
#7 Parade Field Late runner will always be at least a little vulnerable to the splits, but he closed well last out into solid fractions. Not sure he's getting all of the pace he needs.
#2 Candy Store Reliable type has running lines that stack up well with these, and it isn't a huge concern as he goes from one top claiming barn to another.
Race Summary Astrologer should offer a fair price with a good, forward trip looming here, and the addition of blinkers made a huge difference for him last time out.

Oaklawn Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Edgemont Road Barn has done really good work with these types this meet, and this guy woke up in a hurry when adding blinkers last out while earning a co-highest BRIS speed figure. Dangerous again.
#2 Golden Notion Tactical type adds blinkers, but he's going to be overbet here and has burned a decent bit of money while settling for very tame underneath slices. He can win this with the hood on, but I'll pass.
#5 Majestic Display Price player is probably outrun going short, but he owns a couple of races that are at least a little bit interesting when thinking about trying to get this guy in deep underneath at a big number.
Race Summary Edgemont Road woke up big time with the blinkers added last time out, and if he can flash similar speed here, he'll be a player from the start at what is likely to be another square price.

Oaklawn Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#11 Tumbling Sky May not have cared for the off going last out when trying winners, but his Saratoga maiden breaker was pretty sharp, so he's worth a bounce-back look with a good outside draw to prompt the pace.
#3 Ginobili Ran a huge one when giving Nadal all he wanted in the San Vicente, and that guy came back to roll here in the Rebel. The one to beat with his class and pace, but he's sort of one-dimensional and could potentially be vulnerable late if he takes early heat.
#8 Shashashakemeup Might have a small chance to land a piece underneath as he gets back to a dirt sprint after trying some graded stakes company and a turf dash.
Race Summary Tumbling Sky has some bounce-back potential after a chase and fade run over an off track last out when racing off the bench. That race under his belt should give him something to build on.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#9 Fully Loaded Has shown speed vs. better and can overcome his post; can dig in and put away other speed horses.
#5 Cryogenic Beat similar two back and barely lost last time; can get a stalking run and can get the jump on late runners.
#4 War Star Gets a fast pace in front of her and has shown the ability to close; can mix it up with male rivals here.
Race Summary Full Loaded has been vs. better rivals and does well when he gets on the front end early, which he should be able to do today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 R Prerogative Gets an inside run and should be able to run with any of these early; seeks 1st win of the year and is well placed in this spot.
#2 Up in Smoke Was an easy winner in both career start and takes a step up in class; has a decent late charge and will be the one to hold off.
#4 Alandra Closed to 2nd in her 1st of the year after running in Grade 1 and 2 races last year; has the class to be a factor here.
Race Summary R Prerogative has enough speed to save her inside path, can turn away other speed horses and can dig in late against the closers.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Flash Money Has the speed to get to the front and with this drop in class should be able to dig in late in the game.
#5 La Cara Bonita Ran on for 3rd at a higher level and has the tactical speed to be the hunt throughout; gets top rider.
#9 Swirling Candy Very fast and can clear much, if not all of the field at the start and can push them to the limit.
Race Summary Flash Money will get away with a decent price and has a good chance to fight it out at this level.
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