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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/03/20

April 3, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Friday, April 3, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Missandei; 2-Capeline; 3-Princess Crystal

Forecast: Let’s be kind and describe this as a “modest” race for the level. We’ll use three in our rolling exotics but the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Missandei rates top billing because she hasn’t shown she can’t run. A first-time starter from a sharp barn with a healthy work tab and a good inside draw, the daughter of Fed Biz sports a 1:00 2/5 drill last month around dogs on grass at Palm Meadows in a move that indicates she has at least some ability. Capeline was beaten less than five lengths with a wide trip in her sprint debut in February and has every right to improve with that bit of experience behind her. L. Panici rides her back, so there’s that. Princess Crystal is an 11-race maiden from a low profile outfit, but she missed by a neck over this course and distance two runs back and not much more will be needed for her to earn a diploma. She’s the 2-1 morning line favorite.
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RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Flaming Hot

Forecast: Flaming Hot seems fairly solid in this $16,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds and we’d have to think he’ll go considerably lower than his morning line of 3-1. The Khozan gelding has steadily rising speed figures (and a huge edge in this department over his rivals) and most recently ran a winning race when beaten a nose while two lengths clear of the rest against a similar group over this track and distance last month. A repeat of either one of his last three races would be more than good enough to handle this task, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 2:05 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Captain Yenner; 3-Not Now Rated; 8-Newyork Giant

Forecast: Here’s another soft maiden claimer, this one a six furlong sprint fort older horses entered for $12,500. Newyork Giant flopped badly at 3/5 in a similar affair in late January but before that ran a winning race when a troubled runner-up (beaten a head) while earning a speed figured that would be good enough to beat this group. Freshened since late January and getting a considerable upgrade in jockey with the switch to E. Jaramillo, the S. Joseph, Jr.,-trained gelding should be capable of producing the last run. Not Now Rand, a solid runner-up two races back in a tougher maiden $25,000 sprint but a well-beaten fourth at 6/5 last time out, drops to his lowest level ever and is a major contender with this group with a repeat of his best effort. L. Saez stays aboard, a positive sign. Captain Yenner is a class-dropping first-time gelding adding blinkers, so there are reasons to be optimistic that the lightly-raced sophomore has room to improve. The connections don’t win very often but in a soft race at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including as a back-up on a ticket or two.
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RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Threshold; 8-Abdaa; 12-Plan of Attack

Forecast: Anything goes in this messy maiden claiming turf miler for 3-year-olds. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. The known element certainly doesn’t inspire, so let’s take a stab with a newcomer from a good barn. Abdaa, a homebred first-timer by Animal Kingdom and therefore bred to run long on the lawn, shows a steady series of recent workouts at Palm Meadows that should have him plenty fit for trainer M. Pino, who has an excellent recent record (33% with a strong flat-bet profit) with newcomers. At 8-1 on the morning line, he won’t have to be a world beater to pull off a surprise against a modest bunch. Threshold has the benefit of the rail draw and should draft into a good ground-saving spot and have every chance from there. The son of Karakontie didn’t really show that much when facing maiden $50,000 foes over this course and distance in mid-February but the M. Casse-trained colt switches to T. Gaffalione and earned a “buried” number that makes him a major player at this level. At 5-1 on the morning line, he’s a “must use.” Plan of Attack is stuck in the 12-hole, hardly an ideal post at a mile on this turf course. Claimed for $16,000 by K. O’Connell in mid-February out of a better-than-looked fourth place finish from off the pace, the son of War Front switches to E. Zayas and could be dangerous if given the patient ride he apparently prefers.
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RACE 5: Post 3:08 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Dalarna; 7-Power Walker; 8-My Point Exactly

Forecast: In his present form, Dalarna should be hard to beat in his quest to extend his winning streak to four. Capable of winning on the front end or from a comfortable stalking position, the veteran gelding can choose his spot from his ideal inside draw, but at 7/5 on the morning line there’s probably not much value to be found. There are two others worth considering in rolling exotic play, at least as backups. Power Walker, a razor sharp Tampa Bay Downs invader with speed figures that fit, can be very effective on the front end but equally dangerous as a stalker. A winner of two of three career outings over the local lawn, the son of Stroll is reunited with favorite pilot E. Jaramillo and is fresh from earning a career top speed figure when beating a straight $16,000 claiming field. These are tougher, but you have to use him somewhere. My Point Exactly, first or second in his last four starts, was no match when chasing home Dalarma two races back but he’s a nine time winner over the Gulfstream Park grass course and has the kind of tactical speed that ensures a trouble-free trip.
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RACE 6: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Candy Machine

Forecast: Candy Machine flashed plenty of ability when a strong runner-up to the highly-regarded I’ll Fight Dempsey in his racing debut in late February and the son of Candy Ride seems sure to improve a bunch with that race behind him and this stretch out in trip. Drawn comfortably in post three with the short run to the clubhouse turn, the 3-year-old colt should secure an ideal pace-stalking position and then have every chance to verify his strong backing on the tote. Worth noting is trainer C. Brown’s sensational record with second-time starters (35%) and with the sprint-to-route angle (37%). At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post 4:10 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Interest

Forecast: Interest, from a barn that can be very aggressive with its claiming stock, drops sharply in class for the money run and rates top billing as a straight play and rolling exotic single in this moderate claiming turf miler. The S. Joseph, Jr.-trained sophomore filly lost in her first outing for these connections when stumbling badly at the start in a much tougher starter’s optional claimer last month but against this group, especially with the popular blinkers-off angle, she appears more than capable of bouncing back. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez, lands an ideal draw, and should be along in time from a good second flight, stalking position. She’s 3-1 on the morning line and we’ll take it if we can get it.
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RACE 8: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-So Cunning; 4-Off Topic

Forecast: Off Topic projects as a very short price favorite in her first start since winning a good allowance race at Belmont last summer, and if she returns as well as she left the daughter of Street Sense will be tough to beat in this second-level allowance one-turn miler for fillies and mares. T. Pletcher hits at a remarkable 30 percent with layoff runners, so you have to suspect that this multiple-graded stakes place filly is fit and ready. However, at even money on the morning line, there’s not much value to be found, so while we’ll certainly include her in rolling exotic play, the main punch both in the rolling exotics and in the win pool will go to the undefeated but unproven (and much better priced) So Cunning. A winner last May in her debut at Delaware Park and then most recently thoroughly dominant in an allowance sprint victory at Tampa Bay Downs, she’ll certainly need to step things up in this much stronger affair but could easily be up to the task. In that Tampa Bay win the daughter of Blame was bottled up from the 5/8ths pole to the top of the stretch while full of run, then got clear and accelerated quickly to win going away without taking as much as a deep breath. How good is she? We’ll find out today but at 10-1 on the morning line for the always-powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team she’s certainly worth the gamble.
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RACE 9: Post 5:12 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tapit to Ride; 5-Laska; 11-Polished Copper

Forecast: Tapit to Ride, a $250,000 yearling purchase by Tapit from the dam of multiple graded stakes winner Winning Cause, has been reasonably competitive in maiden special weight races in a four career but today is being tossed away for $25,000, surely not a healthy sign for a filly that must have at least some residual value as a broodmare prospect. On pure form she really should handle this very soft assignment, but at even money on the morning there’s really not much we can do with her. Those interested in trying to beat the chalk should consider Lashka, dropping in class and with numbers that make her fairly competitive, and Polished Copper, poorly drawn outside and average at best according to her speed figures but switching to J. Rosario in her second off the claim for D. Fawkes. A solid runner-up effort at this level over this course and distance last time out provides some encouragement.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Indian Gulch Class dropper wasn't involved early last time and didn't do much running off the Galis claim, but gets a more aggressive gate rider in Lopez, so he should be closer early, will like this reduced level, and should offer a hint of value as well; upset special.
#7 Fiery Opal The obvious horse to beat was a good and fast 2nd at the level last time and now goes off the claim for Bennett (15%), who is one of the sharpest trainers on the grounds, and he won't have to improve much, if at all, to get the job done; looms very large.
#8 English Laughter Tricky read has been a turf runner, which is no surprise since he's by English Channel, and while the dirt run at Parx two-back was a solid 4th against much better, it was also in the slop, and the lone fast track dirt win showing was much slower; mixed signals.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 5, and the class drop will help too, so give him a look in all the slots, and to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win over the 7 is going to add a lot of value to the sequence right off the bat, and the pick is offering enough risk-reward to see if he can pull it off.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Harv Won't Tap Class dropper didn't fire from a bad draw two-back in his first for O'Connell but got a much better draw last time and was an underrated 8th in what was a fast race for the level, Gallardo sticks, and only slight improvement makes him a big player here; can surprise.
#9 Wicked Boy Expected chalk has the best turf races showing and any of his last several would likely win this, but the wide draw did him no favors, he'll be overbet, and at 1-for-10 over the local sod it's not exactly like he's in love with winning either; plenty scary, but no lock either.
#8 Tiz Samurai Dicey ML favorite has been doing the dirt and synthetic thing of late, and his turf races here, albeit against better, when with Boyce, were solid, but hardly spectacular, and ihs last was a complete no-show, so taking this price would be tough to swallow; tread lightly.
Race Summary You'll get plenty of value on the 2, and it's likely his last start was more indicative of what he's going to do today, and he can still improve too as O'Connell is just getting to know him, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since a win would really spice up all three sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Count Again Lightly raced runner got to the turf at Kee, settled, and then blew away MSW foes when last seen for Howard in October, and while the layoff and facing winners are concerns, new trainer Sweezey is sharp, there's plenty of speed to close into, and that initial turf run says this guy is going places; look out.
#3 Where's Oliver Fellow MSW winner was all-out to get it done here last month, but he's run just four times, so he's got plenty of upside, and he sure liked getting back to the turf last time, so with an expected hot pace aiding his late run too, there's no reason he can't make a dent on the class rise; price players will land here.
#9 Centerfoldprospect Longshot isn't likely good enough to win this, as he's light on figures, steps up in class, and didn't draw well either, but the win last time was solid, and the race flow will suit is closing style, which says he may outrun his odds and really spice up your exotics underneath; eligible to pass a bunch late for a share.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 4 but that turf debut was heady stuff, and no one here can run that kind of race, so 5-2 or so seems fair, provided he's ready to roll, and he sure looks it, so make an aggressive win and place bet, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since there doesn't appear to be anyone here who can reach his level if he's ready to roll.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Ice or Fire Has had his share of chances, but he's a reliable type who is quick enough to work out a trip from the fence. Baseline effort may do.
#7 Silver Claim Finished with a head of steam in the turf sprint debut against better, but that came last May and he now returns for $16,000. He can probably dust these, but on principle I'll stand against at a short price.
#3 I'll Dash for Gold That March comeback was probably pretty useful when finishing just behind the top choice, and she had been away nearly two years prior to that, so there's some potential upside today.
Race Summary Ice or Fire gets the edge in a spot where the likely chalk can win this with a big fig from his debut, but he's also plunging in class off the bench. I'll take the reliable lines from Ice or Fire.

Golden Gate - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Northern Quest Showed some late interest at 13/1 in the debut run, and he'd be attractive if offering anything near the 8/1 ML price with that race under his belt.
#6 Dark Proof Won't have to be a star to make a dent with these at first asking, and he seems realistically placed for this first trip to post.
#2 Speedy Trip Tactical type went sort of evenly in the debut run before going a bit flat late, but that can prove useful for him in advance of this second start.
Race Summary Northern Quest won't have to come forward much to play with this group at a price, and he'd probably be appealing enough at something like 5/1 for me to take a shot

Golden Gate - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Illapawnie Nearly scored when going long and finding the lead in May of last year, and he's quick enough to have the front end if they want it -- and in a spot with mostly pressing pace, there's little reason not to go for it.
#6 Star of Africa Finished too late on the turf in the debut, but the pedigree is there to have success on any footing, and she may like the move to the synthetic where sire Animal Kingdom prepped prior to his Derby win.
#2 Soothing Faced stakes company last time out, and her baseline effort is right in line with what it would take to land this one, and maybe the blinks coming back off will help.
Race Summary Illapawnie draws wide and will probably have to break for it in the early going, but that may work in her favor with a race shape that might be crying out for a speedy leader.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Ain't Wasting Time Has a good turn of early speed, has been in with much strong company and should welcome a return to the dirt. Will have an attractive price.
#4 Flaming Hot Ran on well and just missed in an optional claiming race vs. state-breds; makes 2nd off the claim for Becker and can press from the outset.
#5 Beyond Gone Has been in tougher spots and could be the one to benefit from stalking a fast pace; expect improvement here.
Race Summary Ain't Wasting Time has speed and the rail and can set the pace vs. these; the class drop should aid in him finding late courage.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 Newyork Giant Looked much the best but had trouble two back and then tired last time; gets Jaramillo, who can guide him some in good order today.
#9 Bulkcarrier Has been in the mix in all starts and it will likely be a chore to catch him; chance for a big slice of it.
#11 Embustero First-time Carpe Diem colt has a long list of works and the Delgado barn is hitting at 25 percent this year.
Race Summary Newyork Giant is well-spotted and it looks like Graduation Day; can take dead aim late and should be able to score.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Truly Closed to 2nd for this price two back and then was a non-threatening 3rd in a race that came off the turf; has a consistent closing move on grass and can make a run vs. these.
#3 Tapit to Ride This $250K yearling drops to the $25,000 maiden-claiming ranks and really wasn't far off. The drop makes you take a look, especially since this one will be a short price.
#6 Laska Rallied in her last two and has a good chance to make a strong bid toward the leaders here; another with a good price, mainly due to the short price of the favorite.
Race Summary Truly has been a good late runner on turf and may not be that far back today; big chance for improvement.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 89

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 FAR WEST 3/1

# 4 HOT'N NOTTY 7/2

# 3 POWER TIMES TWO 9/2

My pick in this race is FAR WEST. Recorded a strong Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Tamayo has this gelding racing well and is a very good selection based on the solid speed figs posted in sprint races recently. Tamayo and Hernandez have won 40 percent of their races giving this equine a solid chance. HOT'N NOTTY - He has to be carefully examined given the competitive speed figs. POWER TIMES TWO - Should be carefully examined based on the decent Equibase speed fig garnered in the last contest. He has been racing quite well recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA BREDS THAT WHERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 HE IS THE BOSS 12/1

# 2 NONSENSE ON CORONA 10/1

# 3 WILLIE WANNA RUSH 4/1

I've got to go with HE IS THE BOSS especially at a such a nice price. Bohner has been terrific with two year olds, winning at a 36 percent rate. This gelding could improve on Lasix. NONSENSE ON CORONA - This trainer is formidable with starters in juvenile races. Should definitely be carefully examined versus this group of horses in this race based solely on pedigree figures. This pony must be bet upon at the expected high odds. WILLIE WANNA RUSH - This horse enters today's affair on Lasix. Can't overlook as handler has been terrific recently with 2 year olds. Valdivia has a strong win percentage with horses racing in short races.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Oaklawn Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,500 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 JUNIOR GILLIAM (ML=8/1)
#2 QUALIFLY (ML=20/1)
#13 SHANGHAI POINT (ML=6/1)
#6 MARK OF THE Z (ML=5/2)

JUNIOR GILLIAM - Last race was at Oaklawn Park in a race with a class figure of 99. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time puts him in a solid position right here. After a nice race two starts ago, this horse bounced. Now today, I expect another good performance. May have to bet on this race horse in this contest. He has been claimed in each of his last two starts. QUALIFLY - This horse hasn't won in his last three starts, but he did win on November 30th against better at 6 furlongs. Have to like the way Contreras has raced this horse back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. SHANGHAI POINT - The rider/trainer duet of Rocco and Vanden Berg has a strong ROI together. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this gelding is ready to run today. That 88 fig this gelding earned in his last race tells me he's a main player this time around. MARK OF THE Z - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +217. The addition of blinkers usually means that a trainer wants a pony to show more speed or to keep his attention focused.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 FAYETTE WARRIOR (ML=4/1), #8 ST. LOUIE GUY (ML=5/1), #4 RAVENS REFLECTION (ML=8/1),

FAYETTE WARRIOR - That was simply not a very good display in the last race. ST. LOUIE GUY - Looked like he was in good form on Mar 12th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. RAVENS REFLECTION - Last performed on March 22nd at Oaklawn Park, finishing eighth. Unlikely to advance off of that effort in today's race. The speed figs are going downward. I'm not playing this racer off of that trend.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - QUALIFLY - This horse is meeting a much easier field than in the last event on Mar 7th. Worth a bet today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 JUNIOR GILLIAM on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,6,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,6,13] with [2,6,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,6,13] with [2,6,13] with [2,6,13] Total Cost: $6
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#13 TRACEABILITY (ML=8/1)
#2 INDIRECTLY (ML=15/1)

TRACEABILITY - Running 1 mile on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This animal has the tops in the bunch. INDIRECTLY - Finished ahead of today's favorite last time around the track at Gulfstream Park. Can do the same again in today's race. Should do well right here in this race. Weight shift of -5 from February 14th race at Gulfstream Park.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 STRONG ENDING (ML=7/2), #10 VOICESINTHEDARKNEZ (ML=4/1), #1 THRESHOLD (ML=5/1),

STRONG ENDING - Awfully tough to bet on this horse when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness lately. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this turf route. THRESHOLD - This runner didn't go to the lead and didn't make up any ground in the homestretch last time he ran. Registered a substandard speed rating last time out in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race on February 20th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #13 TRACEABILITY to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
13 with 2 with [3,10,12] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
13 with 2 with [3,10,12,15,16] with [3,10,12,15,16] Total Cost: $20

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[2,13] with [2,13] with [3,10,12,15] with [3,10,12,15] with [3,10,12,15] Total Cost: $48
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE

04/03/20, OP, Race 5, 3.06 CT
04/03/20,OP,5,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000. FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Chicken Hawk 4-1 Eramia R E Jackson Richard D. FEC 39.84 1.27/$1
098.45 1 Thornish 6-1 Santana. Jr. R Moquett Ron TS 39.84 1.27/$1
098.31 2 Tempt Fate(b+) 3-1 Talamo J Deville Carl J. 39.84 1.27/$1
098.06 11 Pay Dirt 8-1 De La Cruz F Martin Timothy E. 39.84 1.27/$1
097.29 14 Jimmie T 6-1 Garcia M Stewart Dallas J 41.54 1.42/$1
097.13 9 Rockthepulpit 5-1 Vazquez R A Villafranco Federico 39.84 1.27/$1
096.69 3 Ms Sassy Atitude(b+) 12-1 Elliott S Robertson McLean W 37.76 1.31/$1
095.04 13 I Stan for Love 15-1 De La Cruz W Martin Joseph R. 39.84 1.27/$1
094.89 6 Traffic Control 10-1 Mojica O Cangemi Leah 42.25 1.36/$1
094.42 12 More Than Blessed 30-1 Lara E Cascio Andrew J. 31.93 1.07/$1
094.13 8 Crow Mountain 10-1 Quinonez L S Pish Danny 35.17 1.10/$1
093.49 10 Macho Rocco 12-1 Roberts C Mason Ingrid L 42.25 1.36/$1
093.36 5 Hamazing Song 30-1 Birzer A Gonzalez Jaime N. 39.84 1.27/$1
092.46 7 Mr. Cougar 20-1 Wales T Westermann Ronald L. 41.54 1.42/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.63, ROI 1.23/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

04/03/20, TAM, Race 8, 3.55 ET
04/03/20,TAM,8,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $18,900. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $32,000. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 3 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race Since February 3 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000 (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Distinctive Flower 4-1 Gallardo A A Bennett Dale JL 31.58 1.18/$1
098.01 5 Konza Kandy 15-1 Quinonez A Silva Carlos H. TC 33.78 1.38/$1
097.52 10 Summering(b-) 3-1 Castanon J L Proctor Thomas F. W 31.58 1.18/$1
096.64 11 Flor de La Mar 9/2 Centeno D Harty Eoin G. SE 31.58 1.18/$1
095.88 8 Red Curls 10-1 Camacho S Lerman Roy S. 33.78 1.38/$1
094.61 3 Classy Woman 8-1 Hernandez H Yanez Moises R. 31.58 1.18/$1
094.42 6 Magic Hatter 12-1 Suarez A Pimental John I. 31.58 1.18/$1
093.12 7 Barrel of Destiny 12-1 Spieth S Granitz Anthony J. 33.78 1.38/$1
092.28 1 Surprise Again 20-1 Garcia W A Sweezey J. Kent 31.58 1.18/$1
092.17 9 Drinks On Me 5-1 Mena R Winebaugh Cheryl 31.58 1.18/$1
091.50 2 Glam 15-1 Wales G Sweezey J. Kent F 31.58 1.18/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 40.00, ROI 1.08/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Distinctive Flower 4-1 Gallardo A A Bennett Dale JTWL 32.52 1.09/$1
099.79 11 Flor de La Mar 9/2 Centeno D Harty Eoin G. SE 42.86 1.12/$1
098.34 10 Summering(b-) 3-1 Castanon J L Proctor Thomas F. 32.52 1.09/$1
098.31 5 Konza Kandy 15-1 Quinonez A Silva Carlos H. C 32.52 1.09/$1
096.39 8 Red Curls 10-1 Camacho S Lerman Roy S. 32.52 1.09/$1
093.61 7 Barrel of Destiny 12-1 Spieth S Granitz Anthony J. 32.52 1.09/$1
093.28 3 Classy Woman 8-1 Hernandez H Yanez Moises R. 32.52 1.09/$1
093.02 2 Glam 15-1 Wales G Sweezey J. Kent F 32.52 1.09/$1
092.74 1 Surprise Again 20-1 Garcia W A Sweezey J. Kent 32.52 1.09/$1
092.69 9 Drinks On Me 5-1 Mena R Winebaugh Cheryl 32.52 1.09/$1
092.20 6 Magic Hatter 12-1 Suarez A Pimental John I. 32.52 1.09/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 41.38, ROI 1.34/$1
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Bob Weir

Gulfstream Park's late Pick 4 on Friday begins at 3:39 p.m. ET with Race 6 and ends with Race 9.

Gulfstream Park 6th
3 Candy Machine (8-5)
Makes his second career start. (Trainer Chad Brown is winning at 35 percent with maidens making their second start.) Matched Beyer par for this race (78) when finishing a good second in debut. Son of Candy Ride looks solid again. Single "A" horse.

5 Ellis Island (7-2)
One of two horses for trainer Todd Pletcher, this son of Will Take Charge stretches out from a good first start at seven furlongs but will need a step forward and probably some regression from Candy Machine to win.

4 Fried Rice King (9-2)
The "other" Pletcher. Went off at 16-1 in his debut race, something not seen too often with Pletcher horses. Showed no speed in his first start, and I assume the plan is to make one run again.

8 Wind Ridge (15-1)
Exits a key Tampa race that has produced three next-out winners and the third-place finisher in the Tampa Bay Derby. Did not do a lot of running in that race but is eligible to improve making his second start.

A: 3
B: 4,5,8

Gulfstream Park 7th
2 Interest (3-1)
Drops in class and removes blinkers. If you are willing to toss the last two races (stumbled badly in her last start and was rained off the turf and moved up in class in her race two starts back), her form looks a lot better. With a trainer-jockey combo (Saffie Joseph Jr.-Luis Saez) winning at 28 percent, I will take the positive view.

9 Lemon Scat (9-2)
Another horse dropping down the ladder for trainer Dale Romans. Bred to handle turf. The connections seemed to have liked the horse last fall, but she just has not progressed. This will be the easiest field she has faced by far. I'm giving her one more shot.

10 Teacher Drama (6-1)
Acted up in the gate in the last race and then did not perform. But prior two races showed good pressing speed and improvement. If you toss the last, she fits in here.

7 Silly Notion (6-1)
Won her debut in a maiden claimer at Tampa, but it was a very weak race and not fast. Will need to improve, but I will give her a shot. She didn't really seem to figure things out last time until the stretch. Moves to another good trainer (Larry Rivelli) and picks up one of the top Gulfstream jocks (Tyler Gaffalione). Might be better than she showed in last.

A: 2,9
B: 7,10

Gulfstream Park 8th
7 I'll Take the Cake
Scratched.

4 Off Topic (1-1)
Returning for Todd Pletcher after a 6½-month layoff. Raced in four consecutive stakes races last summer as a 3-year-old with limited success. Closed out 2019 campaign with a win in a first-level allowance. Has been training well for her return, outworking the other Pletcher returnee (Takecharge Mirella). Looks good in here, but no cinch.

2 Bella Ciao (12-1)
Comes in off three solid races but did not threaten for the win in any. In good form and has a shot.

6 W W Fitzy (6-1)
Likely pacesetter exits a Grade 3 race in which she was overmatched. If left alone, she may take these a long way.

A: 4
B: 2,6

Gulfstream Park 9th
3 Tapit to Ride
Scratched.

2 Veer (12-1)
Dropping out of maiden special weight company, but with slower figures. Maybe the second-time Lasix, second-time blinkers and reduced competition will wake her up.

4 Matcha (8-1)
Ran a good comeback race last out after a long layoff. Can improve. Rates a long look with scratch of favorite.

5 Laska (6-1)
Continues to slowly progress. Posted a good final fraction in her last race. Will need some pace help to close into.

7 Cherokee Sound (15-1)
Last race was best yet. Short layoff but seems to have been training on for Wesley Ward. Shot.

8 Singsong Bird (20-1)
Now 0-for-13 but is often in the mix. Winless in three starts on the turf with a second and a third. Hard to get excited about, but the race has opened up with scratch of the favorite.

10 Positive Power (20-1)
Finished third in last race. Winner came back to win a $50,000 claiming race yesterday, improving Beyer Speed Figure 14 points. Maybe last race is better than it looks on paper.

1 Truly
Scratched.

A: 2,4,5,7
B: 8,10

Wagers
All-A ticket
$3 Pick 4: 3 with 2,9 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 ($24)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$1.00 Pick 4: 4,5,8 with 2,9 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 ($24)
$1.00 Pick 4: 3 with 7,10 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 ($8)
$1.00 Pick 4: 3 with 2,9 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,7 ($16)
$1.00 Pick 4: 3 with 2,9 with 4 with 8,10 ($4)

Two-A, two-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,8 with 7,10 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 ($12)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,8 with 2,9 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,7 ($12)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,8 with 2,9 with 4 with 8,10 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3 with 7,10 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,7 ($8)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3 with 7,10 with 4 with 8,10 ($2)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3 with 2,9 with 2,6 with 8,10 ($4)

Total: $120
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Jonathon Kinchen

Friday's late Pick 4 at Oaklawn Park begins with Race 6 at 4:36 p.m. ET and ends with Race 9.

Oaklawn Park 6th
1 Dr. Hipp (8-1)
Runs for a tag for the first time for an extremely sharp operation in Ten Strike Racing. Gelding was originally with Norm Casse, but I imagine the disruption in the racing schedule had an impact on the decision to switch to Randy Matthews. This horse has ability and could've been the top pick had he drawn outside.

8 Hardly a Secret (7-2)
His last two races were good, but I worry this one will be a bit overbet off the win with a soft trip.

9 Moment (5-1)
Gets the outside draw for Robertino Diodoro and M and M Racing. I love the outside draw, and you have to assume Diodoro can duplicate the form Moment had when he ran for Brad Cox. The tentative pick.

3 Morse Code (6-1)
Half brother to a really good Grade 1-winning dirt horse, Honor Code. Has shown more ability on the turf, but not impossible.

A: 1,8,9
B: 3

Oaklawn Park 7th
7 Fully Aware (7-2)
A lot of her rivals have proven that they don't necessarily want to win. Fully Aware will be making her second lifetime start, and she is undefeated. Yes, it was only one race, but the outside draw, the fact that she galloped in race for $50,000 maiden claimers and the capable hands of trainer John Sadler are enough to suggest that she will handle this level without any issue. I will use the logicals as Bs, but I only need her as an A.

A: 7
B: 3,4

Oaklawn Park 8th
1 Exclamation Point (6-1)
This half brother to 2016 2-year-old champion Classic Empire ran pretty well in his first start for Steve Asmussen of the layoff. Had a tough trip in there, and I expect him to move forward. The rail draw is no bargain.

3 C Z Rocket (6-1)
Once upon a time he was a stakes horse. He is the only one in here for a tag, so he could qualify for this condition. Dangerous.

4 Gato Guapo (9-2)
Trainer Robertino Diodoro has cooled off, but he is still winning his share of races; hard to ignore his success at Oaklawn. The pace of Gato Guapo's last race was not blazing, but it was contested.

5 Pirate's Punch (3-1)
Seems like he keeps getting stuck down on the rail. Sometimes that's good and sometimes that's bad. He has talent and is more than capable. He might enjoy an outside trip this time.

6 Laughing Fox (10-1)
Ran really well closing into a slow pace on a sloppy track. I think this one should run big off that effort and with the addition of blinkers. The pick.

8 Kurilov (4-1)
I cannot argue with the back-to-back wins with good speed figures for one of the top five trainers in the country (Brad Cox). There is no reason to get cute here. He has a big shot.

9 Rated R Superstar (6-1)
Hasn't done much since winning the Essex but has some back form that makes him a must-use.

A: 1,3,4,5,6,8
B: 9

Oaklawn Park 9th
7 Gold Credit (2-1)
Phil D'Amato seems to have this one back on track and has the confidence to stretch her out. Stretching a horse out is always a question, but the fact that this is her third attempt tells me that D'Amato and her previous trainer must see something that suggests she can do it without issue. She ran her lifetime best figure last time, and you would think she would improve second time for D'Amato.

9 Shocking Fast (4-1)
Broke her maiden first time for Steve Asmussen off a 224-day layoff. She will be making her first journey around two turns, but the pedigree (Distorted Humor out of a Tiznow mare) suggests that shouldn't be an issue. I like her style for the stretch-out as well. She relaxed on the lead in a moderately paced six-furlong race and finished like a good horse. The pick.

A: 7,9
B: None

Wagers
All-A ticket
$1.50 Pick 4: 1,8,9 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 7,9 ($54)

Three-A, one-B ticket
$0.50 Pick 4: 3 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 7,9 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8,9 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 7,9 ($36)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8,9 with 7 with 9 with 7,9 ($3)

Total wager: $99
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Los Alamitos

FIRST RACE

#6 LOST THE MINISTER making first start Los Alamitos and under the lights since shipping down from Golden Gate showed speed to deep stretch after a poor start tiring late to be fourth as the public choice. #2 SHARED drops from tougher 870-yard field making only second start under the lights for trainer Richard Rosales and jockey Ramon Guce. #1 DECOSTER quick gelding ships in from Arizona drawing the rail making first start for trainer Angela Aquino and jockey Barrington Harvey. Longshot - #3 LOVE AND HOLD

SECOND RACE

#2 SEVERIN runner up in his two recent starts as the public choice encountering troubled trips in both, lands good spot for capable conditioner Paula Capestro to make amends. #6 LA SABALERA making her first start since November 2018 she forced a quick pace over the Santa Anita turf taking up losing momentum, outside draw and will keep the pressure on the top choice. #5 OVERKOTER overmatched in his Santa Anita start returns to Los Alamitos adding blinkers once again for the Treece/Guce team. Longshot - #1 JEMSEK

THIRD RACE

#2 SPEEDY RIDE drops to half his last claim tag facing bottom level claimers tonight, reunited with winning jockey Juan Sanchez. #4 OUR MANEKI CAT popular runner at the claim box making third start off the claim for new connections and trainer James McElroy, Ramon Guce rides. #7 MINIMAL MISTAKE claimed in his last three starts and drops off $3200 purchase making first start for trainer Chuck Treece and jockey Edgar Payeras, outside draw a plus. Longshot - #5 VERMEER

FOURTH RACE

#2 TRUE TO THE TRUTH better then looked effort making first start Los Alamitos since arriving from Arizona racing wide throughout, high percent barn of trainer Vann Belvoir and jockey Ramon Guce rides back. #6 COPPER COWGIRL favored four of her last five starts and seldom misses a check but has only one win from twenty-four starts to her credit. #5 TIZALWAVES exits productive heats finishing third in both after recording his first career win at this distance three back. Longshot - #1 EL SENOR DE LATUNA

FIFTH RACE

#4 I B BUZZIN hard hitting mare at this level now in the Oscar Heredia and repeating last runner up effort as the odds on choice should take home the blue ribbon. #2 LAST DANCE BELLA improved to be third exiting a productive heat making first start for trainer Angela Aquino and jockey Barrington Harvey. #6 SOPRESCIOUS hits hard at this level and drawing the comfortable outside post in field of six, win would not surprise. Longshot - #3 VIRGINIA HALL

SIXTH RACE

#5 PAPPASLILEAGLE missed the break losing all chance can prove mild surprise in contentious heat for veteran conditioner John Cooper and jockey Juan Leon. #6 STEL BEST CHANCE claimed making first start for trainer Valentin Zamudio drawing the outside post in field of six. #2 GET UR MOTOR RUNNIN eliminated at the start facing $12,500 claimers drops to competitive level tonight and is the probable public choice in tough heat. Longshot - #3 WAVE A TOPPER

SEVENTH RACE

#3 SECRETARY OF DEFENSE recovered after a poor start battling to the wire losing by a nose for trainer Jose Flores and jockey Cruz Mendez. #4 WALK AROUND game tally beating softer at 7-1 odds was claimed and double jumps making first start for trainer Valentin Zamudio. #2 HOODALUM after a win two back and recent third place finish at 110-yards he returns to a good distance of 300-yards. Longshot - #1 FURYOFTHEHURACAN
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