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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/2/20

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/2/20

 
Posted : April 2, 2020 8:00 am
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Pajama Queen Lightly raced miss ran well when an even 4th in a comeback off a May layoff that you know she needed, has a ton of upside off just two starts in a race without any, and could offer a hint of value as well; looks primed
#1 Enchanting Eva Money burner made it 0-for-5 with Trujillo and has made a lot of chalk eaters very angry, so while she's the one to beat and handled the pick last time, there's no reason to take another underlaid price; second-best.
#6 Bank of Many Lifetime times has lost to a pair or repeat winners in her last two, so if nothing else she's coming out of live races, but at 0-for-14 with five underneath finishes, there's no reason to think today is the day; exotics appeal only.
Race Summary There's no way you're seeing the 6-1 ML on the pick, but even 4-1 or so seems fair on a gal who has nowhere to go but up off a very encouraging return, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she has every right to move forward in a big way, against a pair who seem stuck in neutral and yet will still be overbet.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Eldritch Class dropper has been middling of late against comfortably better foes than what he meets here, with solid figures, and meets a group with plenty of pace; imposing.
#6 Robs Lucky Spirit Stretch runner has lost to a few of these of late but is another who will like all the pace, and very likely will get overlooked on the board too; can spice up the exotics.
#5 Studly Perfection Speedster did well to draw outside the other gas, and Wong is 36% off the claim, but he gave up an easy lead last time, so dueling and surviving seems dicey; tread lightly.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 2 but that 2-1 ML seems like an overlay in light of his form against better, and all the pace he gets to track here, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you can get some built-in value by singling him in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since there are others who will take some play here, even though this dude looks like he's getting all the best of it.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Tink's Twirl Dangerous returnee hasn't been out since June but Thomas is calling all the right shots at the meet and is 2-for-11 off this extended break, and her form before she went missing was plenty good enough to play here; returns running.
#5 Crazy Sexy Munny The chalk just won at odds-on at the level for a Navarre barn that is 7-for-13 at the meet, so clearly she's the one to beat here, but this group looks a bit tougher, and she won't be anywhere near this 2-1 ML; trying to beat at false odds.
#6 Gratzie Slight class riser has a solid closing gear and she's been in good form of late, and there is some speed here, but this is a tough group for the level, so the rise in class seems a bit steeper than just going from 16k to 20k; mixed signals here.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 7, as you'd like to see her live and taking money off the bench, and if that's the case you can play her to win and place, though her real value comes in the late Pk5/Pk4, since budget players will be singling the 5, even though the gut says she's going to have a problem with the pick, if 'Twirl is ready with her A-game off the bench.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#10 Mr. Nappy Cutback should help the cause, and the class drop should also give him some room to wake up, as he ran a decent second at this level back in December.
#3 Living Vicariously Pace player has proven a good fit at this level and had to settle for second last out. Price likely gets shorter this time around, but he looks like the one to beat.
#6 Violent Fight Debuts in a reasonable spot for Casse, and he may offer a playable price in a race where it appears there are several logical directions in which to go.
Race Summary Mr. Nappy looks competitive with this kind, and the hope is that a couple of bigger barns will draw some action and leave this guy floating at a playable number.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#11 Slip Sliding Away Finisher will have a wide draw to overcome, but the price figures to be right, and she may be able to tuck down near the inside to avoid losing too much ground into the first turn.
#5 La Babia Pace player tends to hang around for a piece of things late, but she's a bit tough to trust on top after giving up the lead in the lane in her recent races. Underneath?
#3 Cat Lady Tactical speed will give her every chance from close range, but that has also been true in her first two career start, including the runner-up finish at 9/5 last out.
Race Summary Slip Sliding Away has a tough draw to overcome, but she finished up really well last time out and is bred to only get better with some more experience.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#8 Lascari Taking a shot in here after not finding a whole lot to love from those with prior experience. This guy is bred for this kind of trip, and the De la Cerda barn is 3-for-14, or 21%, debuting horses long on the turf in the last three years. Why not?
#11 This Ill Defend Has looked like a logical player in most of his recent starts and came up short, and he hasn't been finishing his races with a ton of energy in recent tries.
#5 Pricing Exercise Tactical player went the wrong way late in the debut, but he's surely capable of something better than that in this second trip to post.
Race Summary Lascari may be a sneaky player at a nice price for a barn that does really good work under these specific circumstances -- better than they do with firsters overall.
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Posted : April 2, 2020 9:22 am
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 One Sweet Candy Lost a three-photo photo in his 1st since October, draws the rail and can get an unimpeded run to victory.
#7 Popcorn Dinner Lost a photo last time and has a big chance in her 2nd one back; has been in some good spots and can be a strong player.
#2 The Corona Cowboy Ran on toward the end last time and finished 5th, less than a length behind; chance to improve here.
Race Summary One Sweet Candy lost a heartbreaker last time and just a little improvement gets him to the winner's circle.

Remington Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#11 Cash For Willie Broke slowly against Uptown Babe and others and could not overcome that poor start; Wood barn running well and this one can improve on this class drop.
#12 Hes Back Broke his maiden at Ruidoso last summer and has held his own vs. some decent foes; chance from the outside.
#7 Catchin Train B Held 2nd vs. upper claimers last time and his best can get him a slice of this one.
Race Summary Cash For Willie hasn't done a lot lately but gets a sizable class drop here; with a sharp break he can be the one to beat.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Old Blue Shirt Missed by a nose in an All-American Futurity trial and has a good work for his credit; can score here.
#10 Rrelentless Tired late and was 4th in a Derby trial last month and should appreciate the shorter distance; can be troublesome going 300.
#4 Flashy Tres Lost a three-horse photo last out and could improve in his return; has been with some good allowance rivals and can run into the exotics.
Race Summary Old Blue Shirt has kept some solid company and is the one to beat in his 1st of 2020; can get going early and should be the one to lead the way.
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Posted : April 2, 2020 9:23 am
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $17300 Class Rating: 65

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 LIPS OF SABRINA 7/2

# 1 ONE SWEET CANDY 5/1

# 7 POPCORN DINNER 2/1

I think LIPS OF SABRINA is a quite good choice. She looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Looks like a reliable player for the exotics. Put up a very strong speed figure last time out. ONE SWEET CANDY - Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been quite good - 56 avg - of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Valdivia running at this distance are the most competitive in this field. POPCORN DINNER - Has to be given a chance here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. Recorded a solid Equibase speed fig last time out.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ENCHANTING EVA (ML=5/2)

ENCHANTING EVA - I like this mare a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. I like that most recent effort on March 20th at Golden Gate Fields where she ended up third. Just view her latest figure, 66. That one fits well in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BANK OF MANY (ML=7/2), #9 PLEASE ZIP IT (ML=9/2), #2 NOBLE GIRL (ML=6/1),

BANK OF MANY - This mare hasn't had any strong efforts in sprint events in the last 60 days. Golden Gate Fields has not been kind to this steed. PLEASE ZIP IT - Difficult to take this pony at this price after the result (fifth) in the last event. NOBLE GIRL - 6/1 is just not enough of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. The Brain always warns me to keep my distance from horses in short distance affairs that haven't finished in the money in short distance contests recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 ENCHANTING EVA to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
None
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Posted : April 2, 2020 9:35 am
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17200 Class Rating: 53

FOR ARKANSAS BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 KELLY BE KRUSIN 9/2

# 2 JULIE ARKANSAS 12/1

# 13 WILL B LATE 10/1

KELLY BE KRUSIN is the strongest wager in this race. Has performed soundly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 59 avg speed rating. JULIE ARKANSAS - Has a sharp shot for this event if you like back class. Looks very good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races lately.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:05pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 ENVOUTANTE (ML=3/1)
#1 TOKEN (ML=7/2)

ENVOUTANTE - Filly failed as the favorite in a Maiden Special race last time out. Was a good race even though she finished second. Finished 2nd, but easily second over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out. This filly registered a good speed rating of 91 in her last race. That rating should be high enough to score today. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a strong contest last time around the track within the last 30 days. TOKEN - This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a horse that finished in the place spot in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the third horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NEVER FORGET (ML=9/2), #5 NEW HOPE ROAD (ML=6/1), #6 ASSUME (ML=8/1),

NEVER FORGET - Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last out at Tampa Bay Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's race. NEW HOPE ROAD - Don't think this horse has what it takes to cross the finish line in first this time around. ASSUME - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 ENVOUTANTE to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
7 with 1 with [3,6,8] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Pass
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Posted : April 2, 2020 9:36 am
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

04/02/20, GP, Race 1, 1.00 ET
04/02/20,GP,1,5F [Turf] 00:53:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $35,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000, For Each $5,000 To $40,000 1 lb. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five Furlongs) (Rail at 60 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 9 Call Curt 6-1 Zayas E J Avila Juan Carlos FEC 50.00 1.23/$1
097.72 3 Living Vicariously 7/2 Jaramillo E Tomlinson Michael A. 25.00 0.59/$1
096.81 2 She's Just Quality 4-1 Davis D Ward Wesley A. TW 25.00 0.59/$1
096.64 14 Speedy Hans 6-1 Saez L Casse Mark E. J 34.96 1.37/$1
096.33 6 Violent Fight 9/2 Gaffalione T Casse Mark E. 25.00 0.59/$1
095.92 4 Bridologist 10-1 Reyes L Pompay Teresa M. L 50.00 4.33/$1
095.29 10 Mr Nappy 10-1 Vasquez M A Abreu Fernando S 50.00 4.33/$1
094.50 8 Concorde's Dream 15-1 Rosario J Orseno Joseph F. 50.00 4.33/$1
094.18 5 Officer Country 12-1 Maragh R Eppler Mary E. 50.00 4.33/$1
094.13 11 Extremelyexclusive 15-1 Rodriguez A A Becker Scott 50.00 4.33/$1
092.68 7 Borgobythesea 20-1 Lebron V Medina Angel M. 50.00 4.33/$1
091.57 12 Ninth of April 30-1 Gonzalez S Mc Allen John P. 50.00 4.33/$1
091.44 1 Sam's Spirit 15-1 Meneses M Hills Timothy A. 50.00 4.33/$1
090.73 13 Bychance 30-1 Olsson F Sanchez Amador Merei 50.00 4.33/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.98, ROI 0.99/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Bridologist 10-1 Reyes L Pompay Teresa M. WL 33.33 1.29/$1
099.84 9 Call Curt 6-1 Zayas E J Avila Juan Carlos FEC 33.33 1.29/$1
099.56 2 She's Just Quality 4-1 Davis D Ward Wesley A. T 33.33 1.29/$1
097.65 6 Violent Fight 9/2 Gaffalione T Casse Mark E. 33.33 1.29/$1
097.64 3 Living Vicariously 7/2 Jaramillo E Tomlinson Michael A. 26.52 0.71/$1
096.67 11 Extremelyexclusive 15-1 Rodriguez A A Becker Scott 33.33 1.29/$1
096.65 14 Speedy Hans 6-1 Saez L Casse Mark E. J 33.33 1.29/$1
096.39 10 Mr Nappy 10-1 Vasquez M A Abreu Fernando S 33.33 1.29/$1
095.54 8 Concorde's Dream 15-1 Rosario J Orseno Joseph F. 33.33 1.29/$1
094.78 5 Officer Country 12-1 Maragh R Eppler Mary E. 33.33 1.29/$1
094.58 7 Borgobythesea 20-1 Lebron V Medina Angel M. 33.33 1.29/$1
092.03 13 Bychance 30-1 Olsson F Sanchez Amador Merei 33.33 1.29/$1
091.62 1 Sam's Spirit 15-1 Meneses M Hills Timothy A. 36.51 1.15/$1
091.03 12 Ninth of April 30-1 Gonzalez S Mc Allen John P. 33.33 1.29/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 24.32, ROI 0.52/$1
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Posted : April 2, 2020 9:37 am
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Paul Leiner

Horse Plays 4/2" Goneasagirlcanget was scratched yesterday. Today I capped the 4th at Gulfstream Park.

$10 w/p/s #3 Cat Lady
$2 ex box 3/1/6
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Golden Gate - Matt Dinnerman

Race 1:#6 Bank of Many, #1 Enchanting Eva, #2 Noble Girl
Race 2:#1Wilshire Dude, #2 Eldritch, #5 Studly Perfection
Race 3:#8 Diamondsnchampagne, #7 Joyous, #3 Cash for Cass
Race 4:#6 Sassy and Hot, #2 Keepinmypromise, #8 Breakfast Ball
Race 5:#3 Mithqaal, #6 Truth Seeker, #2 CimplMan
Race 6:#6 Gratzie, #5 Crazy Sexy Munny, #3 Shari
Race7:#3 Mulhima, #1 Shanghai Truffles, #4 Lady of Perception
Race 8:#4 Lookin For Revenge, #7 Big Perm, #5 Exhort
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Posted : April 2, 2020 1:14 pm
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Gulfstream Park - Jason Blewitt

RACE1: 10 –9 –3 –8
RACE 2: 6 –10 –1 –5
RACE 3: 1 –4 –3 –6
RACE4: 3 –4 –8 –6
RACE 5: 4 –3 –9 –6
RACE 6: 4 –10 –6 –5
RACE7: 6 –7 –1 –2
RACE8: 2 –1 –7 –4
RACE9: 5 –7 –3 –6
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Gulfstream Park - Acacia Courtney

RACE 1: 3 - Living Vicariously 2 - She’s Just Quality 6 - Violent Fight SELECTIONS: 3-2-6-9
RACE 2: 10 - Markistan 6 - Bibiana 1 - Truly Ambitious SELECTIONS: 10-6-1-8
RACE 3: 1 - Talkthetalk 6 - Derby Day Zip 7 - Quiet All Around SELECTIONS: 1-6-7-3
RACE 4: 1 - Altaf 3 - Cat Lady 4 - Too Sexy SELECTIONS: 1-3-4-8
RACE 5: 4 - Suz 6 - Worth Avenue 9 - Tuesday’s Rose SELECTIONS: 4-6-9-7
RACE 6: 7 - Fancified 6 - Dienda 4 - Hartling SELECTIONS: 7-6-4-3
RACE 7: 1 - Token 7 - Envoutante 6 - Assume SELECTIONS: 1-7-6-9
RACE 8: 1 - Smack 4 - Dixieincandyland 7 - Awsum Roar SELECTIONS: 1-4-7-8
RACE 9: 5 - Pricing Exercise 7 - Bear Alley 9 - Ever Dangerous SELECTIONS: 5-7-9-6
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Posted : April 2, 2020 1:15 pm
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Gulfstream Park - Ron Nicoletti

1 - 3-10-9
2 - 10-6-4
3 - 1-6-3
4 - 3-8-4
5 - 6-4-9
6 - 6-1-2
7 - 7-2-1
8 - 4-1-7
9 - 6-7-5
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Jonathon Kinchen

Thursday's late Pick 4 at Oaklawn Park begins with Race 6 at 4:36 p.m. ET and ends with Race 9.

Oaklawn Park 6th
The key to this race is that I am against the second choice, 9 Jeri Bella (7-2), who is going to take money. The idea is to fade that horse, use the other three logicals and attempt to pick up some equity in the first race of the sequence. She is a 7-year-old mare who won for $8,000 two starts back but broke slowly last time and did no running. Now she comes in off a short break, and I feel like this might be the beginning of her decline. I am looking elsewhere.

2 Savedbyanangel (3-1)
She is a forward type that has competitive numbers. Don't love the inside post, but she can absolutely win vs these.

3 The Mary Rose (9-2)
Her last two races havent been ideal with less than desirable starts to her races. She was also very wide. Needs to break clearly, but is definitely good enough to win this race.

6 Lil Tater (5-1)
She just won a $40,000 maiden by 10 lengths. This is not the most competitive group, and I love that she is drawn outside of her main competition. The pick.

A: 2,3,6
B: None

Oaklawn Park 7th
1 Leroy (9-2)
If the race is going to fall apart this is the horse that I believe is most likely to pick them up late. He has had back-to-back trips that suggest he should run better here, and he is trained and owned by the duo of Robertino Diodoro and M and M Racing. The bonus is that you'll get the 1A, Control Stake, as well. Leroy is not without a chance. The pick.

7 Rockshaw (7-2)
This stakes winner reaches the bottom and is in for the $20,000 tag, but he ran well enough last time for $25,000 off a 158-day layoff. I expect this 6-year-old to be a little tighter this time around. Has the tactical speed to get a good trip but still avoid a pace meltdown.

10 Futile (15-1)
Calvin Borel, of Kentucky Derby fame, teams up with his brother, Cecil, who is a staggering 6-for-11 at the meet. This horse was claimed back by Cecil and could enjoy this pace setup. Don't be surprised if Calvin finds the rail even from the outside post and mows them all down at a big price.

11 Lewys Vaporizer (4-1)
They are going to fly in this race. Lewys Vaporizer has one way of going, and that is fast. His outside draw only ensures a quick pace, and I don't trust the new connections following a sharp trainer like Tom Amoss, but I will use him as a B horse.

A: 1,7,10
B: 11

Oaklawn Park 8th
3 Summer Fortune (10-1)
Jeremiah Englehart won a race on Sunday with a horse named Daphne Moon. She was one of his first-out 2-year-old maiden winners in 2019. Summer Fortune, also a 3-year-old filly, broke her maiden last fall at Belmont and did so in a manner that could win on Thursday. If she improves from 2 to 3 like Daphne Moon did, she could be tough. This horse is fast.

10 Misty Blue (3-1)
Comes in off back-to-back gate-to-wire wins. I love how this one has been doing, and I expect her to keep improving for Mike Maker. The outside draw is ideal on this racetrack.

6 Quick Decision (8-1)
I'll throw this filly in as a B horse. Trainer Larry Jones has a way with fillies.

Note: Keep an eye out for 13 My Italian Rabbi (9-2). Use her if she draws in off the also-eligible list.

A: 3,10
B: 6

Oaklawn Park 9th
3 Pete's Play Call (5-2)
Have I told you how much I like Mike Maker as a trainer? He doesn't get the notoriety of a Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Brad Cox or Chad Brown, but he is at that level of horsemen in my opinion. He claimed this horse off of a competent trainer in Robertino Diodoro and has had success. Pete's Play Call didn't win last time, but he ran a winning race. Three of his five starts for Maker put him right there in this race. The only negative is the inside draw.

8 Lawton (4-1)
Comes in off a break but also comes in off back-to-back wins on different surfaces (turf and dirt). I love the outside draw, and, because of the dirt race he ran two starts, he could leave the starting gate as the favorite.

5 Spokane Eagle (10-1) and 7 Sevier (15-1)
If the top two choices don't fire, the race can be won by anyone. I'll take a flyer on these two as B horses only.

A: 3,8
B: 5,7

Wagers
All-A ticket
$1.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 1,7,10 with 3,10 with 3,8 ($54)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 11 with 3,10 with 3,8 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 1,7,10 with 6 with 3,8 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 1,7,10 with 3,10 with 5,7 ($18)

Two-A, two-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 11 with 6 with 3,8 ($3)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 11 with 3,10 with 5,7 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6 with 1,7,10 with 6 with 5,7 ($9)

Total wager: $105
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Posted : April 2, 2020 1:57 pm
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