Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/2/20
Thursday's Best Bet: Raggedy Annie can rally for the win at Oaklawn
By Jarrod Horak
April 2, 2020
Thursday's 8th race from Oaklawn Park is an optional claiming event for 3-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on the main track (Post Time 5:38 p.m. EDT)
#7 RAGGEDY ANNIE (4-1) is back in a preferred sprint after taking a route shot in the Honeybee (G3). The competent late running sprinter should get plenty of pace to chase.
#11 Josie (7-2) is another with the ability to pass horses. Brad Cox excels turf/dirt and with his second after a layoff starters, and Joe Talamo clicks with this barn.
#9 Jade d’Oro (9-2) was competitive from the outset in all three sprints. I am concerned that an expected fast pace will be her undoing.
#10 Misty Blue (3-1) exits back-to-back front running victories at this course/distance. She might be the speed of the speed.
Wagers:
#7 to win
Exacta Box 7-11
Trifecta 7-11/7-9-10-11/7-9-10-11
Recent Best Bet Winners
March 21 - WARD 'N JERRY ($5.60), Trifecta ($14.85)
March 26 - SEVEN NATION ARMY ($5.60)
March 29 - DAPHNE MOON ($5.40), Exacta ($13.80)
March 30 - Okie Queen/Bright Bling/Keena Trifecta ($35.90)
April 2, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
Thursday’s horse racing action takes us to Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida and Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced a statewide shutdown on Wednesday that goes into effect at 12:01am Friday. The order includes exceptions for “essential services” such as getting food, medical supplies, hospital visits and working for crucial industries like pharmacies and grocery stores.
Recreational activities such as fishing, hunting, walking, running, biking and swimming are permitted in small groups.
There was no specific mention of horse racing, which is being conducted not only at Gulfstream Park but at Tampa Bay Downs. There are restrictions at both tracks and the races are being conducted with no fans in the stands
I thought last Saturday, which was closing day of the “championship meeting” at Gulfstream Park might be the last day of racing at the racetrack.
However, The Stronach Group which owns Gulfstream Park made mention last week that they would be willing to go to court to try and stay open for the spring/summer meeting. So, it will be interesting how the next 24 hours plays out.
In the meantime, we have an excellent card at Gulfstream Park today. I have my full card report available and my Best Plays Report for Thursday includes my eight strongest plays from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:00 ET)
#3 Living Vicariously 7-2
#2 She's Just Quality 4-1
#6 Violent Fight 9-2
#9 Call Curt 6-1
Analysis: Living Vicariously set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish last out for this tag on the switch back to turf The colt set the early fractions and faded to finish a well beaten seventh the two back on the main track going six furlongs. He ran pretty well three back over good ground here in a third-place finish. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and may be able to wire this group unless the Ward firster is a runner.
She's Just Quality debuts for Ward who is 29% winners with first timers but they do tend to take too much action in the betting. This filly was a $50,000 Keeneland purchase, by Quality Road out of a Hussonet mare that has dropped three foals, all winners including two turf winners. She worked a bullet around the dogs on turf at Palm meadows on March 25 and looks ready to go. The 4-1 morning line looks generous, she likely is going to be lighter.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,6,9
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,6,9 / 2,3,6,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 7 Clm $20,000 (4:06 CT)
#11 Lewys Vaporizer 4-1
#7 Rockshaw 7-2
#1 Leroy / 1a Control Stake 9-2
#3 Facilitator 10-1
Analysis: Lewys Vaporizer set the early fractions and battled on gamely to miss by just a head against $12,500 claimers last out. The gelding was claimed out of the dace by the Contreras barn that is on the light side first off the claim, hitting at an 8% clip and took this guy off a sharp outfit in Amoss. But the gelding does looks headed in the right direction and the barn has hit at a 20% clip this year and the gelding is a 16-time winner. He steps up for $20,000but a report of his last puts him in the mix in this spot.
Rockshaw tracked the early pace and finished evenly while in between foes in a fourth-place finish against $25,000 foes last out, beaten a length for the top spot. It was his first go off a six-month layoff. He owns back numbers versus much tougher than these. This is just his third start since last April and he has not won since winning the '17 Gazebo here but looks like he fits at this level.
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 7,11 / 1,3,7,11
TRI: 7,11 / 1,3,7,11 / 1,2,3,7,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:10 ET)
#6 Assume 8-1
#1 Token 7-2
#5 New Hope Road 6-1
#7 Envoutante 3-1
Analysis: Assume dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out going 6 1/2 furlongs in her debut, sent off at 7-2 in a field of 12. She is bred to go long, by Candy Ride out of the stakes winner Saxet Heights ($338,331) who won at nine furlongs. She has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of winners. She has come back with a quick works for Pletcher who is 25% winners with second out maidens and 22% winners moving runners from sprint to route. She should move forward with more ground.
Token showed improvement in her second career start. She faded to finish eighth in her debut going six furlongs, then last out dueled for the early lead, opened up a clear lead heading for home and got run down, settling for the runner up spot on the stretch out to a mile. She draws the rail as she now goes two turns for the first time for Mott. She has a nice pedigree, by Curlin out of the stakes winner Sign ($149,125) who was a Grade 2 winner at a mile, this her first foal to race.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,5,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R4: #11 Slip Sliding Away 10-1
R4: #1 Altaf 8-1
R5: #5 True Heiress 10-1
R6: #1 Richies Great Girl 8-1
R7: #6 Assume 8-21
R9: #8 Lascari 12-1
R9: #9 Ever Dangerous 15-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race 3
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $17,500 • Post: 2:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 2, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 2, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Trailer. WENEEDTOTALK is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WENEEDTOTALK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NOT ORBINARY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DARING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. SEXY DANCE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
8
WENEEDTOTALK
8/1
5/2
12
NOT ORBINARY
5/2
7/1
10
DARING
12/1
10/1
2
SEXY DANCE
20/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
11
STAR GAZE
11
12/1
Alternator/Stalker
74
66
53.3
54.0
40.0
12
NOT ORBINARY
12
5/2
Alternator/Stalker
80
68
51.6
68.2
63.2
5
CRUMLIN TIME
5
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
74
65
49.8
59.2
47.2
8
WENEEDTOTALK
8
8/1
Trailer
84
72
69.4
74.3
68.3
7
CIPHERIN' SUE
7
8/1
Trailer
72
69
39.0
60.6
47.6
9
KOOL AID GIRL
9
10/1
Trailer
70
70
35.2
55.0
44.5
10
DARING
10
12/1
Alternator/Trailer
80
64
57.0
61.4
52.9
2
SEXY DANCE
2
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
86
80
45.6
54.3
41.8
3
ELEVENTENTEETIME
3
3/1
Alternator/Non-contender
69
63
57.5
48.0
34.5
4
SATTERSFIELD
4
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
62
50
53.6
49.8
30.8
1
ANGEL OF DREAMS
1
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
79
66
44.0
51.4
34.9
6
BENDI BLU
6
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67
75
41.6
52.2
29.7
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 5
Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $15,300 • Post: 7:44P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CARD ONE STARTER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase S peed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4
CARD ONE STARTER
5/2
4/5
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
4
CARD ONE STARTER
4
5/2
Fast
71
68
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
VITAL DYNASTY
5
8/1
Slow
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
RELENTLESS SOUL
6
6/1
Average/Trouble-prone
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Unknown Running Style: CORONAS JESS OK (15/1) [Jockey: Camacho Kevin Jesus - Trainer: Gomez Juan Jose], CLASSY N GRACEFUL (5/1) [Jockey: Klaiber Justine - Trainer: Willis Eddie Lee], BAYOU A CARTEL (12/1) [Jockey: Packer Berkley R - Trainer: Olmstead
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