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Al Cimaglia: March 31-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 31, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has changed days and its start-time for the rest of the meet. First post will now be at 3:30 PST on Tuesday and Wednesday through April 22. East Coast harness players will relish the earlier start time and the handle should be a big one. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 7, the guarantee has been raised to $50,000 and the actual pool will likely be much larger.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

5-Dancingonthesand (4-1)-Has had trouble taking a picture at this class but is in the mix at the wire. This could be the time to cash the biggest check as half the field is stepping up in class.
6-Velocity Mcsweets (2-1)-Makes the 3rd start off the bench after winning as an odds-on favorite on 3-20. Looks like the one to beat and should be bet hard again.
7-Alwaysalittlemore (5/2)-Likes to get on the engine and today it shouldn't be a big challenge. This mare is a cut above those with an inside post draw and if Plano gets the top easily, he could steal a 1/4.

Race 8

2-Vicious Aloicious (5/2)-Roland's choice over #1 and #5 drops to a soft spot. Morning line chalk deserves to be part of the ticket and Roland will put in play. But Smith barn is ice cold and 6-year-old is camera shy, (11-113) lifetime.
3-Twomickeytrip (6-1)-Mickey should offer a nice price and is also dropping to a spot to shine. This could be a wake-up call for Team Longo and can be forwardly placed from this post.
7-Hi Ho's Little Rev (7/2)-Beaten odds-on chalk couldn't catch Beckys Dreamboat over the weekend when dropped to this level. Becky isn't around tonight and it's best to respect.
10-Dontdoubtthelakers (8-1)-The Smith barn's other entry and Roberts steers again. May have met an easier field than last time. Veteran should be able to get a good early seat and might be able to close into quick fractions at a big price.

Race 9

1-Senga Nitro (3-1)-Drew the rail again and should be in the hunt. Hard to ignore from this post and could offer a fair price.
2-Herecomesthethundr (6-1)-Broke on Saturday on an off track and is only 1-20 on a wet surface. Makes 3rd start off the bench and now Roland stakes a spin. Looking for a lot better and the price should be right too.
3-He Grins Again (5/2)-Beaten chalk lacked a closing kick and that has been the case in last 3-third place finishes. Probably won't offer any value but hard to leave off the ticket with this post draw and will look to others as well.
6-Crusin For You (5-1)-Svendsen's choice over #4 steps up after a game win. Last effort was the best in quite a while and will string a long at what could be a solid price.

Race 10

2-Greekona (6-1)-Finished 2nd to #8 in last and except for #4 this is the same crew. If the chalk can't find her fastball this mare could trip out and should be a better price than last week.
8-Dontcloseyoureyes (5/2)-Hung out the 1st quarter from the 10-hole and then took control. Brushed off a challenger, pulled away and couldn't have been any better. Gets a little post relief and has a big shot for 3rd straight picture.

0.20 Pick 4

5,6,7/2,3,7,10/1,2,3,6/2,8
Total Bet=$19.20
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 Morning Shadow Pace presser was 5th in a state-bred stales off the claim last time, so the drop here makes sense, and the fact there's only cheap inside speed really helps his cause; look out.
#4 L B Gold The chalk has been in good form and beat the pick when 3rd in the stakes, but there's no speed here, and the race flow won't be as helpful to him as to 'Shadow; second-best.
#1 Super Charlie Logical sort has the form to play here and wasn't far behind 'Gold at the level last time, but the rail is dicey, and therefore this 3-1 ML makes him an underlay; underneath only.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 7 but the fact he lost to the 4 last time, and the 1 has solid form too, means he may well be the third choice, and that means $9 or so would be very fair on a runner who seemingly gets all the best of it in terms of race flow, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well (which should have a big pool), since a win would knock out a lot of budget players right off the bat.

Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 October Won MSW dropper got the comeback out of the way 17 days ago off the April layoff, will love this very reduced level, and meets a very weak field on paper; imposing.
#7 Obvi Price player is another who likely needed his comeback, and that 6th at the level last time was in a solid race, so if she improves she has a chance; exotics appeal.
#2 Ours to Hold Tricky read didn't run an inch in her local bow for Gonzalez, and while she did have trouble, the fact she left Broberg too says she's going the wrong way; tread lightly.
Race Summary Swing aggressively in the win pool if you sniff that 5-2 ML on the pick, as even 7-5 would seem fair here, but her real value comes in the early Pk5 (which should have a big pool), as you can single her and spread in the deeper surrounding legs, as this one looks like a name the score type of affair.

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Ship Stalker Delta invader also goes off the claim for Gonzalez, a huge 33% move, and yeah, he didn't fire for lesser last time, but that was in the slop, and there's plenty of fast track races showing that would make him a big player here; upset special.
#9 Southernaire Fellow Delta runner and the pick's stablemate enters off a sharp-and fast win-last time, and a repeat wins this, but note he does leave the restricted ranks to tackle better, and figures to be bet off the board as well; plenty scary, but no lock.
#7 Golden Bullet Newcomer was last seen regressing at Remington in November, so the layoff may have done him good, and if it did then his previous runs put him in the mix here, and he now goes off the claim for a 16% Compton barn as well; worth a look.
Race Summary That 10-1 ML on the pick makes the risk-reward well worth it, especially since the dud was on an off-track and there's several other races showing that would make him a threat here, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5 as well (which should have a big pool), since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would knock out a good portion of the tickets.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Prince Olaf Slight edge with a better draw than the guy furthest outside, and though nine-star maidens aren't usually my favorite play, he might offer a fair enough price to take a shot.
#10 Drastic Nearly scored from the wide draw last time out, and he's going to have to overcome another one today. His early speed probably allows him to work out a trip, but the draw does lessen the margin for error.
#3 Talk Big Money Has been a good fit with the local company and turned in a good runner-up effort at this level last time out. Another who should be in a good spot early on.
Race Summary Prince Olaf and Drastic both have some early pace to use, but the former may be a bit better price and is probably just a touch quicker early.

Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 Classic Czar Might appreciate the added ground today after rallying a bit late going shorter. He's got some room to step forward in this second start off the break..
#5 Giant Gamble Versatile type figures to be right up near the top in the early going, and he may offer a playable price still in today's spot.
#7 Reversaloffortune Finished nicely from spying range to score in the local debut, and something similar probably puts him right in the mix again.
Race Summary Classic Czar may be the right one to give a look here, as the wide draw can be negated by his finishing style, allowing him to get over closer to the inside before the first turn.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Scooter's Boy Just drilled an easier bunch by five last time out, and a repeat of that effort would leave the rest of these running for second at something far shorter than the 9/2 ML offering.
#3 Popcorn for Eddie Looks like the main danger if the top choice regresses off the last one, as this guy won with similar last time out. Not out of it.
#8 Lovethatcause Has enough speed to sit a trip from the outside, and but he doesn't always finish with a ton of energy and might be a bit of an underlay.
Race Summary Scooter's Boy probably goes favored here. His last was razor sharp, and I'm not sure anyone can touch him today if he manages to bring a similar effort.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Cal-Expo - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 MYSTIC RULER Found room in mid-stretch, full of run, back on short rest.
#2 GORGEOUS FOR REAL 20-time winner earned top recent speed figs against better.
#6 CONTEMPORARY LEGEND Steps up off victory, could be put into play earlier.
Race Summary Mystic Ruler returns on 2-day’s rest, but he fits the condition well and closed with a flourish for second after he angled out in mid-stretch to find running room. Play 4-2 and 4-6 exactas.

Cal-Expo - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 LA DIVA DE ROSA Mild, first-over bid off pace-setting fave, 9-day rest benefits her.
#7 GORDY AGAIN In tight at key juncture, ran third behind class-dropping winner.
#6 ROCKINAROUNDHEAVEN Even-paced in return, major player on best at a price.
Race Summary La Diva De Rosa was parked outside the favorites and faded last week, but she finished in the money in 3 of 4 prior starts and meets several contenders who raced Saturday. Taking a stand against morning-line favorite Marilyn, who couldn’t hold on as lone speed and now starts from post 9.

Cal-Expo - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 DONTCLOSEYOUREYES Plays catch-me-if-you-can in pursuit of $100,000 Club.
#6 YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER Third behind top one after improved try prior.
#4 DOUBLE MYSTERY Trouble seems to follow her, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary Dontcloseyoureyes won 4 of her last 6 starts at this level from post 7 outward. No reason to think she won’t clear to the lead early in this field and continue her winning ways. Play 8-4 and 8-6 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Right On By Her two-turn races mostly have been good and she held for 3rd last out in her 1st over the strip; likely to dig in more in her return.
#4 Undivided Ran on for 2nd in her 1st attempt in three months; capable of a running a big one vs. these.
#6 Smart Rachel Can get brave on the front end and as stablemate of the top choice here will likely be sent; could hang on for a major piece of it.
Race Summary Right On By can get a perfect stalking trip here and is likely to improve on her 1st one of the track.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Ornamental Iron Barely missed going a half-mile at Fonner Park, gets more ground and can be expect to run well in her 2nd off the claim.
#2 Award It Didn't fire in the Bold Ego Handicap at Sunland but is in a much easier spot today; solid player all the way around the track in his one.
#3 Indian Gem Hung late in her 1st over over this track and has the ability to carve out a good trip.
Race Summary Ornamental Iron has the speed to be in the mix throughout and can battle all to the way to the wire today.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Broadway County Closed with a rush and just missed here last time and can make a solid run vs. these.
#2 Reachreachreach Beat the top choice last time and will be tough right back; has the ability to adjust to the pace.
#7 Our Musical Moment Has won five of her last seven and was up in time in a good spot at Sam Houston; has speed but also can posses a closing move. Dangerous.
Race Summary Broadway County was badly outrun at Oaklawn two back and welcomed the trip to this spot last time; she responded with a good 2nd and can improve today.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8580 Class Rating: 49

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 A LA OMEGA 7/2

# 8 BURBACH 4/1

# 3 SHAWN AGAIN 5/2

A LA OMEGA looks to be a respectable contender. A solid 80 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group. Nolen and Wethey have won 19 percent of their races giving this equine a decent chance. This rider and handler team has produced some sharp return on investment numbers at this track. BURBACH - Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be on the lead early on. SHAWN AGAIN - This equine has to be in good form coming back to the track so quickly. This equine is prominent in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8800 Class Rating: 70

FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SUPER CHARLIE 3/1

# 7 MORNING SHADOW 7/2

# 4 L B GOLD 5/2

SUPER CHARLIE looks respectable to best this field. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group of animals. Could beat this group given the 60 Equibase Speed Figure posted in his last outing. The average class rating of 69 makes this one difficult to beat. MORNING SHADOW - Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. With a solid return on investment of +15 this conditioner has shown quite good results with entries running at this distance and surface. L B GOLD - Earned a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class figs of this group.
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Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 3/31" Got some picks from Race 5 at Wil Rogers.

#6 Dakoma Rose $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-3-7 Dakoma Rose/Quick Calisia/Shadowing
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