Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 3/28/20

By Mike Dempsey

Despite being in the midst of a global pandemic we have made it to Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park where we have a blockbuster 14-race card that features nine stakes races.

The highlight is the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The race has always served as a major prep for the Run for the Roses, but we have a unique situation this year as the Kentucky Derby has been postponed until the first Saturday of September.

Tiz the Law is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Florida Derby. A field of 13 were entered but 30-1 longshot Soros and 20-1 Ajaaweed will scratch out of the race. That is good news for Ete Indien, who drew the 12 post but will move a couple of paths closer to the rail.

The colt took the field gate to wire to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his last start and is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line.

One other key scratch on the card today is Newspaperofrecord, the 9-5 morning line favorite for the $100,000 Sand Springs, the ninth race on the card.

We got more bad news yesterday about 30 minutes before post time of the opener at Santa Anita. The Los Angeles County Health Department requested racing cease at the racetrack. There have been no positive tests at the racetrack to date.

The question now is how long Gulfstream Park continues to run. The “championship meeting” ends on Sunday, but the spring/summer meeting gets underway on Thursday, April 2.

The track has a mandatory payout of the Jackpot 6 today, which is leading some to speculate that Saturday could be the final day of the meeting until this the Coronavirus crisis is over.

I guess we will find out later today or tomorrow.

Among the tracks still running are Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Fonner Park, Will Rogers Downs, Los Alamitos, Remington Park and Oaklawn Park.

Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

There is national coverage on FS2 on Saturday and Sunday on FS1 from 1:30 to 7:00 ET. The NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 8:00 ET on Saturday and Sunday.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.

Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Alw $51,000N1X (11:30 ET)
#12 Enjoyitwhilewecan 12-1
#5 Zabava 4-1
#10 Scatnap 5-1
#7 Codrington 9-2

Analysis: Enjoyitwhilewecan pressed the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish in the slop last out in a race taken off the turf, beaten just a head in her first start against winners. It was her firs go since breaking her maiden last March at Aqueduct going a mile on the main track in her third career start. Now she tries turf for the first time and she has a solid enough pedigree, out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner. She has a good work at palm Meadow s on grass. The McLaughlin is soon becoming a jockey agent and this is one of his last few starters as a trainer. The trainer is 15% winners moving runners form dirt to turf. Saez takes the call and this gal should be a decent price here.

Zabava tracked the early pace and could not get by the winner late in a solid effort in a runner up finish at this level going 1 3/16 miles on turf. He was put up to first thanks to a DQ three back against $50,000 starter allowance foes and made a mild late bid two back to finish third. The cut back in distance here should suit this guy.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 5,12 / 5,7,10,12
TRI: 5,12 / 5,7,10,12 / 5,7,9,10,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:

TAM Race 8 Hcp $16,000s (3:55 ET)
#9 Onarock 7-2
#3 Hope Again 3-1
#2 Fast Fire 6-1
#6 Dover Cliffs 8-1

Analysis: Onarock may be able to turn the tables today after running third and beaten a nose and a neck behind a couple of foes he runs into again here. The gelding came with a good late rally after racing near the back of the pack early in a race without a ton of pace. Now today they go two more furlongs at 1 3/8 miles and this guy is bred to handle the added ground, by Red Rocks out of a Dalakhani mare. There are a couple of runners in here that have some early foot which should set things up nicely for him.

Hope Again was sent off as the favorite last out and finished gamely to get the job done over five of these. The gelding has now won 3 of his 6 trips over the Tampa turf. He picks up two pounds and I am not convinced he wants to get two more furlongs. He seldom runs a bad one, winning half of his 14 career starts, all on turf. He is a legit threat here for Delgado who is having a solid meeting here but our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,6,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,6,9 / 2,3,5,6,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The Gulfstream Park Oaks G2 (4:49 ET)
#4 Lake Avenue 9-2
#9 Tonalist's Shape 5-2
#5 Spice Is Nice 3-1
#6 Swiss Skydiver 10-1

Analysis: Lake Avenue weakened to finish fourth in the Busher Invitational at a one turn mile at Aqueduct in her last outing. it was her first start off a three-month break and she was down along a deep rail much of the trip. She ran big two back winning the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs in her first start against winners. She set the early fractions and drew clear to win by four lengths. The Mott trainee has been based at Payson all winter and shipped to New York. She had one good breeze since her return and she figures to bounce back with a much better effort in this spot. She has a nice pedigree, by Tapit out of the multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Seventh Street ($716,000). Rosario is aboard for the first time her and the 9-2 morning line looks more than fair.

Tonalist's Shape dueled for the early lead and opened up heading for home, holding on to win the Davona Dale (G2) by 1 14 lengths in a sharp effort. She is now perfect in five starts, two of those wins coming at a one turn mile. She now goes two turns for the first time here for the Joseph barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting, hitting at a 27% clip. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and pedigree wise she should have no issue with more ground. She is by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist out of a Harlan's Holiday mare. She likely gets bet down from her 5-2 morning line.

Spice Is Nice broke her maiden over the main track her at a mile in her debut by a dozen lengths. She came back with a solid effort in the Davona Dale in a runner up finish where she was sent off as the chalk. She was nearly three length clear of the rest of the field and she looks as if she still has some upside. She is by Curlin out of the Grade 1 stakes winner Dame Dorothy ($749,740) and also should be able to handle her first trip around two turns.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 4,5,6,9
TRI: 4,9 / 4,5,6,9 / 4,5,6,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #12 Enjoyitwhilewecan 12-1
R2: #8 Overdeliver 8-1
R2: #10 Gump 8-1
R4: #3 Get Smokin 8-1
R5: #2 Olympic Village 10-1
R5: #6 Squeezadios 8-1
R6: #10 Rare Form 15-1
R7: #9 Seducer 8-1
R9: #6 La Signare 8-1
R10: #2 Kelsey’s Cross 10-1
R10: #8 Beau Belle 8-1
R11: #6 Swiss Skydiver 10-1
R12: #10 Focus Group 8-1
R12: #2 Benna’s Boy 10-1
R13: #1 English Bee 8-1
R13: #7 Social Paranoia 10-1
R14: #6 Gouverneur Morris 8-1

Florida Derby Horse Racing Picks and Betting Strategies
March 28, 2020
By Anthony Stabile

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Predictions
Bet the Florida Derby at TVG!
FLORIDA DERBY (Grade 2)
Date: Saturday, March 28, 2020
Post Time: 6:36 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: NBCSN
Race #: 14
Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 miles
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $750,000
Track: Gulfstream Park
Location: Hallandale, Florida
FLORIDA DERBY
Handicapping Analysis
(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – As Seen On Tv (12-1) Was no match when third in Fountain of Youth, his first start around two turns. Appeared to struggle late in the game and now has to navigate an additional half-furlong. May try and play catch-me-if-you-can from inside draw.

2 – Shivaree (30-1) Comes in off a series of sprints and his lone route effort was abysmal. Blinkers come off, so he may try to settle, but he’ll need to improve leaps and bounds against these to even think about getting a piece.

3 – Disc Jockey (20-1) Tries two turns for the first time after a second-place finish in a minor-stakes as the 3-5 favorite. Has improved with each start but appears in way over his head.

4 – Soros (SCR) Will be scratched.

5 – Gouverneur Morris (8-1) Will try to add on to trainer Todd Pletcher’s five wins, the most in the history of the event, in just his second start of the year. Easily took an entry level allowance/optional claimer across the state at Tampa Bay Downs last out.

6 – Ajaaweed (SCR) Will be scratched.

7 – Tiz the Law (6-5) Cruised to an easy win after a bit of an interesting trip in the Holy Bull last out, his first start since finishing third in the slop at Churchill when last seen in late November. Has done everything right on fast ground. Believe he is best of the crop at this moment.

8 – My First Grammy (50-1) Maiden would have a better shot at winning Song of the Year than this heat.

9 – Independence Hall (9-2) If the favorite stubs his proverbial toe, I think this guy is the one who will beat him. Won his first three starts before running into the teeth of a tough pace in the Sam Davis at Tampa, his first start around two turns. Reunited with Rosario for this.

10 – Candy Tycoon (20-1) I thought he’d be on or close to the lead from his rail draw in the Fountain of Youth but instead he had just two horses beat going down the backside. Closed nicely to get place money and is as a live a longshot as there is in here.

11 – Sassy But Smart (50-1) Has won just once in four tries, a maiden race against fellow Florida-breds on the grass two starts back. Would have been better suited for Cutler Bay earlier on card.

12 – Ete Indien (4-1) Was soundly beaten by Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull then came back to roll by almost nine lengths in the Fountain of Youth when left alone on the lead. Have to think he faces some pace pressure in here. Going to try and make some money by getting him out of the number.

13 – Rogue Element (50-1) Another maiden. I will never understand the logic.
FLORIDA DERBY
Predictions - If I had $100
$50 Exacta 7-9
$20 Exacta 7-10
$5 Triplei key 7 over 5-9-10

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Golden Gate Fields - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double /$0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) $0.50 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)

Claiming $3,200 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 12:45
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2019-2020. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Stalker. INTIMIDATE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INTIMIDATE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TUSCAN WARRIOR: Horse has th e highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIL' CHIEFTAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at th e distance/surface.
4
INTIMIDATE
9/2

9/2
1
TUSCAN WARRIOR
8/5

5/1
2
LIL' CHIEFTAIN
7/5

5/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
UNION WINE
5

6/1
Front-runner
86

73

67.6

71.4

62.9
2
LIL' CHIEFTAIN
2

7/5
Alternator/Front-runner
87

82

65.4

76.2

69.2
4
INTIMIDATE
4

9/2
Alternator/Stalker
85

73

63.2

78.0

75.0
1
TUSCAN WARRIOR
1

8/5
Trailer
84

85

61.6

80.2

76.7
6
PEPPER SINGS
6

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
84

76

72.0

61.8

53.3
3
FAST SALE
3

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
86

71

39.4

62.2

51.7
__________________

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 6

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) (.50 Cent Minimum)

Claiming $15,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 8:15P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAJOR REGARD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WILDER WAYS: Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THIS SILKS DASHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FLY VALIANTLY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of t he gate fast.
6
KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY
5/1

6/1
1
MAJOR REGARD
6/1

6/1
9
WILDER WAYS
5/2

7/1
3
THIS SILKS DASHING
4/1

7/1
8
FLY VALIANTLY
10/1

8/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
MAJOR REGARD
1

6/1
Average
80

89

4.7

0.0

0.0
2
VALIANT AMIGO
2

12/1
Average
78

68

4.4

0.0

0.0
3
THIS SILKS DASHING
3

4/1
Average
86

83

4.2

0.0

0.0
4
ASK ME HOW I KNOW
4

10/1
Average
74

77

3.7

0.0

0.0
5
TRAVELIN FRIENDS
5

6/1
Fast
72

73

2.4

0.0

0.0
6
KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY
6

5/1
Average
87

80

3.8

0.0

0.0
7
TWO DASH CORONA
7

15/1
Slow
0

0

7.4

0.0

0.0
8
FLY VALIANTLY
8

10/1
Fast
74

80

1.6

0.0

0.0
9
WILDER WAYS
9

5/2
Average
82

85

5.0

0.0

0.0
__________________