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Al Cimaglia: March 27-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 27, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

At Cal Expo tonight, the 0.20 Pick 4 will begin in Race 7. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Gorgeous For Real (5-1)-Makes 4th start off the bench and the last outing was the best so far. Pilot doesn't win often but this post gives him more options. Meets easier and the barn might be waking up. Using and should offer a nice price.
4-Bunker Hill Bill (5-1)-Has finished 2nd when leaving from the 10 and 9-hole in last 2 starts. Gets class relief and post relief but 9-year-old has trouble cashing the biggest check. Should be a player but might be over bet.
5-Almost Cut My Hair (5/2)-Drops out of the Opens and picked up checks there. Did win at this class on 3-6 from this post. Could trip out behind #4 and will likely be bet hard but is a must use.
7-China King (6-1)-Should like the company and Plano takes a seat. 12-year-old doesn't bring his "A" game every night, more an on and off type of performer. Didn't do much in last, so thinking this is go-time at a nice price.

Race 8

3-Greekona (9/2)-Got on the engine and almost hung on last weekend. That type of trip isn't typical, was used hard in the 3rd quarter and faded. Expecting another big try with some better rating, maybe a 2-hole trip behind #10.
8-Youroldlov-Eletter (8-1)-Looking for a wake-up call in a race without much form. Makes 4th start for new trainer and last week did go the back half in 56.3. Could pop at a price with a good steer by Svendsen.
10-Dontcloseyoureyes (3-1)-Took the long way around last time from the 8-hole and beat 3 from this field. My guess is Roberts will leave and get on the engine but either way, should be a major player.

Race 9

1-Senga Nitro (6-1)-Having the rail will help and fits with this crew. Should be in the hunt at a square price and could get a cozy pocket trip behind the program chalk #7.
3-He Grins Again (4-1)-Drops again looking for a win. Roberts sticks, gets post relief and should be forwardly placed. It's best to not overlook.
7-Contemporary Legend (2-1)-Even effort in last but was off 3-weeks. One of a few dropping and looking to pick up a win. Could get the top and not use up a lot of gas, will respect connections but will look to others as well.

Race 10

2-Bet Together (5-1)-Loses Plano because he trains #7 but does step down and Svendsen can work a good trip. Can be put in play early and could offer a square price.
3-Western Devil (5-1)-Roland picked over #1 and the program chalk #4. Raced big in last and now bumps up but still can pose a threat versus this crew. Barn has been rolling and can be in line for a nice trip.
7-Mr Varsity (3-1)-Drops and this is the softest spot this year. Smells like a drop and pop situation for Team Plano.

0.20 Pick 4

1,4,5,7/3,8,10/1,3,7/2,3,7
Total Bet=$21.60
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Harlequin Pace presser drew a perfect attack post for his style after a pop and stop for 40k last time, and note that came off an 18-month layoff, so he should be primed; love his chances here.
#11 Empty Nestr Logical sort was a very fast 4th at the level last time, and a repeat of that wins this, but he's been routing of late, so the cutback might prove to be a bit too sharp for him; second-best.
#4 Agitator Fellow router has also been facing better too, and he goes second-time blinkers too, which can be a wakeup, but didn't improve off the Broberg claim, which is a worry; mixed signals.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 8, but off that tightener, and the fact he kept his speed off the long break, you have to think he's tossing down a race the rest won't be able to handle today, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the early Pk4, as he's going to be tough to deny in this spot if he moves forward.

Oaklawn Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Addi Lightly raced and improving sort drops in class too, makes the often pivotal third start of her career, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#9 Hashtag Winner MSW dropper deserves a long look on that alone, as this is the biggest drop in racing, not to mention he figures are best here too; the gal to beat.
#10 Hungry N Scrappy Tricky read didn't break on debut in the mud then closed to pass some stragglers, so she could move up, but this 7-2 ML is way short; tread lightly.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 7, and it needs to be because she has to improve to win this, but there's every reason to think she can, and, aside from the 9, there's no one here to be scared of, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since she could completely fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

Oaklawn Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Sara Sea Lukas charge was a good 3rd routing last time, should have plenty of foundation on the cutback, will be a big price, and should trip out nicely too; upset special for the Coach.
#9 Wholehearted ML favorite just won at the level and if she runs back to that win she'll be tough, but this group looks tougher too, and this wide draw did her no favors; scary, but no lock either.
#1 What a Fox Heavy hitter was in too tough against stakes foes last time but her last two-both wins-make her a big threat here, but like her stablemate, she too drew poorly; underneath only.
Race Summary That 10-1 ML is well worth the risk-reward on the 6, and though she bombed at the level last time, she's now run big in two of her last three, so maybe that was just a blip on the radar, so giver her a look in all the slots, and especially the Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since a win would really blow up both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Restless Rambler Has plenty of room to bounce back after running off the board at 1/2 last time out, as he's always been that type with the potential to cough it up badly late.
#5 Blackout Goes off the Miller claim, and he has been well-meant at this level in recent starts. Might offer a better price today?
#8 Morgan S Speed will be right in the thick of it from the start, and the outside draw shouldn't really keep him from breaking and finding a spot.
Race Summary Restless Rambler can be an all-or-nothing type at times, and he was nothing last out. He can bounce back here with his sharp pace.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Saving Sophie Didn't back up that big turf debut from January, but she ran a couple of good races on the main track prior to that and may get a bit overlooked on the move back to the dirt with flat recent form.
#7 Merneith No doubt the one to beat, but she has fallen short at 1/5 and 6/5 in her two starts so far, and she's going to be another short price today.
#5 Last First Kiss Cutback runner has some route speed that might keep her in a decent enough spot in the early going, and she figures to be running on from off the pace.
Race Summary Saving Sophie intrigues despite a couple of flat recent runs, and her back dirt races look likely to keep her in the mix if she can bounce back on the surface switch.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Absolute Unit Gets the slight edge in what feels like a very top-heavy race, and he'll get another good tactical trip after landing a good second in the turf route debut.
#3 Much More Halo Ran quite well in the November Del Mar try going a mile, and the blinkers come off for this one after after just missing last out.
#2 Eastern Ocean Second start off the layoff may produce something better from this guy, and the added ground probably won't hurt the cause, either.
Race Summary Absolute Unit and Much More Halo figure tough to get past in the finale, but 'Unit might get the slightly better trip and that may make the difference.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Cal-Expo - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 HI HO’S LITTLE REV Post switch, race shape, driver’s choice makes him today’s Best Bet.
#7 PANEDICTINE Discount latest, last won at this level, needs some pace flow.
#8 BECKYS DREAMBOAT Even-paced in 1:53.3, gets Plano, early position the key.
Race Summary Hi Ho’s Little Rev, parked by the winner and pocket-sitting favorite through a :57 middle half, should go a long way from up close with favorable post switch. He was driver’s choice on a triple call, so play 1-5, 1-6 and 1-8 exactas.

Cal-Expo - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 VILLA FOR RENT Improved try in latest as he looks to get back on the winning track.
#3 BUDGIE SMUGGLER Tipped 3-wide for drive, wrapped up late as top pair separated from field.
#5 CENALTA EXPRESS Second in 3-horse qualifier, met short-priced winners last summer.
Race Summary Villa For Rent raced first-over through solid middle fractions set by the 3-to-5 winner. He won five times last year, draws the rail and offers fair betting value. Play a 1-3-5 exacta box.

Cal-Expo - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 FLY AWAY Shuffled as pace slowed, rallied widest, can turn tables.
#4 ETHAN HANOVER Classy 11yo failed to sustain eye-catching move in latest.
#5 WHO DAT LOVE Got away easy on front end in repeat victory at this level two back.
Race Summary Fly Away raced fifth through single-file, opening half mile, lacked room on the turn and swung 5-wide in the stretch to close with a rush for second. He won’t get much pace in a short field but he’s good enough to overcome it with a clean trip. Play 6-ALL exacta.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Lucky Milady Retreated against much tougher in her last four and has a good breezing work to her credit; lands in a soft spot for her 1st one back and could register at a price.
#6 Miss Mac Broke her maiden two races back in her 1st over the strip and then faded going longer in a much stronger race; can press from the outset and could wear them out.
#1 Miz Chaplin Cruised to any easy win in a soft spot last time and makes her 1st since November; has a serious of good works preparing for this.
Race Summary Lucky Milady has been well over her head, can keep up with these early and likely show more courage than she has lately.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Country Strong Move boldly toward the lead in midstretch and faltered last; turns back in distance, should be able to save ground and she can be a player with a well-timed move.
#5 Queen Kantharos Led in the stretch but was caught by a pair of rivals; takes a class drop and should be able to dig in.
#7 Stormy Boss Was a solid 3rd two back and then weakened last time out; this class drop could be what she needs.
Race Summary Country Strong has been running a mile and should be able to take dead aim at these running shorter; scores with a clean trip.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Cuestion de Tiempo Comes to Gulfstream from Tampa in good form; has taken on solid sprinters at Arlington as well and has a good closing move at the 5F distance on turf.
#3 Frenchmen Street Held on for a win in a race that came off the turf but put together a pair of wins last fall and can be in the mix throughout this one.
#7 Captain Ron Has been highly competitive vs. state-breds and was a good $10,000 claim by Crichton last fall; in the heart of this one for every stride.
Race Summary Cuestion de Tiempo has some serious late pop going short and will get the usual fast pace for this distance; one to hold off.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $15300 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 JEG TRAINYOURDRAGON 20/1

# 5 ROCKET BAR CARTEL 7/2

# 9 HES A TERROR 9/2

JEG TRAINYOURDRAGON looks to be a very strong contender especially at a long price. Maybe a little dangerous in this two-year old race, but there are decent historic results for risk takers on this bloodline. Carrizales has been terrific with two year olds, winning at a 21 percent rate. Carrizales has recorded very strong profits (+4 ROI ) with first asking starters. ROCKET BAR CARTEL - Decent edge in the sire's two-year old race win rate. Shows strong Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Look at this horse's Sire (Coronado Cartel) worth a wager given his numbers (+4 return on investment with 2yolds) alone.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

03/27/20, GP, Race 11, 6.14 ET
03/27/20,GP,11,1 1/8M [Turf] 1:44:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $75,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since February 27 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $75,000 (Races Where Entered For $62,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Eighth) (Rail at 36 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Ask for Bode 6-1 Gaffalione T Kenneally Eddie FEL 30.33 1.98/$1
097.04 9 Unconquered Lea 7/2 Saez L Perkins. Jr. Benjamin W 28.89 1.41/$1
095.63 2 Gufo 9/2 Rosario J Clement Christophe C 30.33 1.98/$1
095.60 6 Montana Man(b+) 15-1 Vasquez M A Dibona Bobby S. 30.33 1.98/$1
095.42 7 Mystic Lancelot 6-1 Castellano J Pletcher Todd A. TS 30.33 1.98/$1
094.10 10 Buy Me Candy 8-1 Bravo J Correas. IV Ignacio 30.33 1.98/$1
093.95 13 Prefect 20-1 Leparoux J R Arnold. II George R. 30.33 1.98/$1
093.44 12 Kid Mercury 15-1 Velazquez J R Motion H. Graham 28.49 1.58/$1
092.93 4 Bless the Kitten 8-1 Lopez P Maker Michael J. J 30.33 1.98/$1
092.89 3 Amends 12-1 Zayas E J McGaughey III Claude R 28.49 1.58/$1
092.73 11 Fame to Famous 15-1 Meneses M Mc Allen John P. 28.49 1.58/$1
092.62 1 Bee Catcher 12-1 Prado E S Motion H. Graham 28.49 1.58/$1
090.94 8 Off the Meds(b+) 20-1 Landeros C Wilkes Ian R. 30.33 1.98/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 30.16, ROI 1.09/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Ask for Bode 6-1 Gaffalione T Kenneally Eddie FEL 35.42 1.13/$1
097.71 9 Unconquered Lea 7/2 Saez L Perkins. Jr. Benjamin W 22.09 0.69/$1
097.04 2 Gufo 9/2 Rosario J Clement Christophe SC 22.09 0.69/$1
096.70 10 Buy Me Candy 8-1 Bravo J Correas. IV Ignacio 22.09 0.69/$1
096.54 7 Mystic Lancelot 6-1 Castellano J Pletcher Todd A. T 22.09 0.69/$1
096.32 4 Bless the Kitten 8-1 Lopez P Maker Michael J. J 22.09 0.69/$1
095.53 6 Montana Man(b+) 15-1 Vasquez M A Dibona Bobby S. 32.00 1.36/$1
093.93 13 Prefect 20-1 Leparoux J R Arnold. II George R. 22.09 0.69/$1
092.94 3 Amends 12-1 Zayas E J McGaughey III Claude R 22.09 0.69/$1
092.63 11 Fame to Famous 15-1 Meneses M Mc Allen John P. 22.09 0.69/$1
092.20 1 Bee Catcher 12-1 Prado E S Motion H. Graham 22.09 0.69/$1
092.05 8 Off the Meds(b+) 20-1 Landeros C Wilkes Ian R. 32.00 1.36/$1
091.67 12 Kid Mercury 15-1 Velazquez J R Motion H. Graham 22.09 0.69/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.57, ROI 0.76/$1
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Los Alamitos - Terry Turrell

FIRST RACE

#1 ISLA’S TOY has been facing tougher last year and two starts this year testing 870-yard foe for the first time, drops to his lowest level to date, draws the rail, blinkers off. #4 LOST THE MINISTER ships down from Golden Gate dropping to bottom level maiden claimers, blew out in 47.3 Feb 29 proving second best of sixteen. #3 FLAGS WEST better than looked effort making first 2020 start finishing third after a poor start, chance for mild surprise. Longshot - #2 KENZLEE’S GOV

SECOND RACE

#6 CHITTER CHATTER on the shelf since December 2019 when she faced much tougher during the LRC meet will drops to bottom level claimers drawing the outside post in field of six for trainer Brian Koriner, David Mussad aboard. #3 CURRYFORTHREE BANG drops below $3200 purchase price making second start for the red hot barn of Dan Azcarate, barn clicking at a fifty-six percent clip with five wins from nine starters this year. #2 SUGARATSUNDOWN one win from twelve starts last year and has recorded back to back bullet works indicating primed and ready for first 2020 start. Longshot - #5 YOLANDA’S STONE

THIRD RACE

#4 ACHIEVED overmatched in his last start after flag to wire victory at this four and one-half furlongs two back, returns to competitive level tonight. #5 FANCY TERRACE eleven wins from fifty lifetime starts, could be value for the Uranga/Guce team with his top effort. #2 STORMIN TRICK drops to his lowest level to date and is undefeated at this four and one-half furlong distgance. Longshot – # 1 SEATOSHININGSEA

FOURTH RACE

#4 SATORI trouble in both starts this year for trainer Marty Jones, last won with blinkers and will be adding blinkers once again tonight, Ramon Guce aboard. #1 RUN FACTOR popular runner at the claim box back returns to the barn of trainer Angela Aquino and reunited with winning jockey Barrington Harvey. #6 HYDROSTATIC competitive race from top to bottom with winner determined by the best trip, outside post a plus for gelding making first start off the claim for trainer Brian Cunningham. Longshot - #2 SURE PROOF

FIFTH RACE

#6 JESPINKY two times second and two times third in four lifetime starts draws the outside post for veteran conditioner John Cooper with regular jockey Juan Leon at the controls. #5 VICTORIO JESS JQM lost all chance at the start making first start Los Alamitos and for trainer Paul Jones will be adding the Flipping Halter. #3 DANCE DAKOTA DANCE troubled at the break losing all chance cannot be ignored repeating either of his races previous two starts. Longshot - #4 SITUATION ROOM

SIXTH RACE

#5 EXCESSIVE CARTEL exploded from the gate winning with gas in the tank earning filly her diploma making first start for conditioner Ricardo Guillen and jockey Cruz Mendez, facing winners for the first time. #2 ARTS OBSESSION after the top choice this field blends into one to complete the exacta. #4 HOT LITTLE KIDDY one win from fourteen lifetime starts and will improve off her first 2020 race when finishing fourth for the Glenn/Bednar team. Longshot - #6 KATES FIRST DOWN

SEVENTH RACE

#2 GET AWAY CAR tough beat making first 2020 start finishing third beat a head for the money, adding the Flipping Halter making first start tonight for trainer Rofdolfo Viramontes. #5 STEL CHANCEY exits a productive heat when finishing sixth of seven in a troubled adventure, chance to make amends. #6 CAVUTO will be making his first start of trainer Adriana Vallejo after a needed effort facing tougher. Longshot - #4 CHECK MY CARTEL
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CURRYFORTHREE BANG 2/1

# 2 SUGARATSUNDOWN 7/2

# 4 MCFUN 5/1

CURRYFORTHREE BANG looks to be a quite good contender. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 59 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the top in this field. Ordunarojas has an excellent ROI over the past month (+119) which should probably help wagerers with this selection. Should definitely be given consideration for this event if only for the formidable speed rating earned in the last race. SUGARATSUNDOWN - Will most likely compete admirably in the early speed battle which bodes well with this field. Is a solid contender based on figures garnered as of late under today's conditions. MCFUN - Has some encouraging handicapping angles which make this horse a wager. Looks respectable versus this group of animals and will most likely be one of the front-runners.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 U KNOW I B LION (ML=5/2)
#8 GO GIRL GONE (ML=12/1)
#4 THIRTY NINE SEVEN (ML=9/2)

U KNOW I B LION - This front running sort is cutting back in distance today. Should aid her likelihood of winning. This filly is entered to race right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. Taking this jockey/handler combination is a good move. GO GIRL GONE - This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Allen. Better beware of this angle. THIRTY NINE SEVEN - The fact that this mare is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. This mare is in fine form. Finished second on Mar 18th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SONOMA STORM (ML=7/2), #2 TOLLY HO (ML=4/1), #6 THUMP (ML=5/1),

SONOMA STORM - When examining today's class figure, she will have to register a much better speed rating than last race out to battle in this dirt sprint. TOLLY HO - This filly hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance races. Tough to invest in her in this race. This filly notched a speed rating in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. THUMP - The Brain cautions me to keep away from horses in sprint affairs that haven't finished in the money in short distance races of late. I'd like to see better recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 5/1. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - U KNOW I B LION - My analysis says it usually takes a racer at least two races after a layoff to get back into proper shape. That's just what we have here, so I have good feelings for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 U KNOW I B LION to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 NOBLE COMPANION (ML=6/1)
#6 HOPPED UP (ML=6/1)

NOBLE COMPANION - Faced tougher last time out at Turfway Park. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this one on my list of contenders. HOPPED UP - This jockey and trainer have a positive ROI when they join forces. Ran a winning race February 27th, but just couldn't beat the victor. Took a class drop last out at Turfway Park. Greenhill keeps him at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MJOLNIR (ML=7/2), #10 DIME DROPPER (ML=4/1), #3 TAAMER (ML=4/1),

MJOLNIR - Today's event is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint race in the last 60 days. Not the greatest of signs. Hard to put your cash on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this participant does. DIME DROPPER - In this situation, this mount's inability to close ground in the last event is a cause for concern. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests recently. Not likely to see him doing it today either. TAAMER - Tough to wager on any runner in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HOPPED UP - With the highest last speed rating of 66, this gelding looks exceptional against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #11 NOBLE COMPANION to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park
PURCHASE

03/27/20, SA, Race 3, 2.04 PT
03/27/20,SA,3,1M [Dirt] 1:33:02 CLAIMING. Purse $35,000. FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since November 27 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Trafficiskillingme 5-1 Velez J I Metz Jeffrey SL 29.90 1.73/$1
098.39 3 K P Cats Wild 6-1 Cedillo A Hess. Jr. Robert B. FC 26.61 1.62/$1
098.36 2 Destiny's Journey 9/5 Espinoza A Knapp Steve E 34.47 1.25/$1
096.83 5 Billy K 2-1 Fuentes R Hanson Ryan TW 26.61 1.62/$1
094.61 1 K P Whirlwind(b+) 5/2 Rispoli U Mullins Jeff J 25.00 1.34/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.00, ROI 3.24/$1
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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 3/27/20

March 27, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Friday, March 27, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Counterstrike; 8-Rhythm Section

Forecast: Counterstrike earned a strong speed figure when missing in a photo in a promising debut performance over this course seven weeks ago and returns in a similar affair with two nice recent breezes to have him set for a forward move. Nicely drawn inside with J. Leparoux riding him back, the son of Street Boss seems the solid choice at 5/2 on the morning line. Rhythm Section is protected today by T. Pletcher after missing by a neck (while more than five lengths clear of the rest) in a maiden $50,000 claimer in his debut in a race that earned a respectable figure. The son of American Pharoah has a right to improve with experience, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Miz Chaplin

Forecast: Miz Chaplin ran off from a maiden $20,000 field at Gulfstream Park West in November and was claimed by S. Joseph, Jr. in what looked at the time to be a sharp purchase. Unraced since then and returning for $10,500, the daughter of Rattlesnake Bridge has the unhealthiest of patterns, but this barn plays the claiming game aggressively, and with a recent bullet gate drill of :48 flat (fastest of 41) she should be set to pick up where she left off for a barn that hits with 40% (with a strong flat-bet profit) with the first-off-the-claim plays. However, at 6/5 on the morning line and breaking from the rail, there is no value to be found. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or, better yet, simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 2:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bourbon Street;6-Tapping; 7-Khattaf

Forecast: Tapping is an intriguing first-time starter in this maiden $50,000 claimer for a stable that shows fancy recent stats with debut runners. The barn’s go-to rider E. Jaramillo takes the call, and in a race in which the known element doesn’t inspire, let’s try the son of Tapizar and hope to get close to his morning line of 6-1. Khattaf is another newcomer with credentials to run well. The son of Khozan shows a series of solid drills, including a bullet half mile spin (:48 flat, fastest of 24) last month and the R. Nicks barn is more than capable of winning with a firster. Bourbon Street was more than four lengths clear of the rest when runner-up over this track and distance at this level earlier this month, switches to L. Saez, and may be worth using on a ticket or two as a back-up at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-First Wave; 9-Noble Alma

Forecast: First Wave, away since October, performed her best last year when sprinting on grass, having finished an excellent second (beaten a neck) at Saratoga last summer in an effort that produced a career top speed figure. The daughter of War Front need only run back to that race today – and the recent work tab should have her plenty fit and ready – to earn her diploma in what appears to be a moderate race for the level. She’s a square price at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Noble Ann also is worth consideration in rolling exotic play. She’s considerably slower on numbers than First Wave but has the benefit of a recent run over the course in her first start in nearly a year when a solid second in a similar affair earlier this month. If she can shake loose early on the front end she could get brave.
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RACE 5: Post 3:08 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-Queen Kantharos; 7-Stormy Boss

Forecast: Here’s a race – a restricted (nw-2) $6,250 sprint for fillies and mares – that probably is best avoided. Stormy Boss drops to the bottom and may have found her friends after turning in a flat performance when competing for $12,500 last time out. Her third place effort when beaten less than a length for that price two races back makes her hard to beat at this level, but with low profile connections and a history of failing as the favorite the daughter of Mucho Macho Man clearly isn’t one to trust. If not her, then who? Queen Kantharos also drops to the bottom for the first time but comes from a low percentage outfit. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 6: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Greyes Creek; 9-Flame Zapper; 10-Propensity

Forecast: Though he’s been away since November of 2018, Greyes Creek has plenty going for him in this maiden special weight turf miler, including a bullet half mile gate drill (:48 flat, fastest of 26) at Palm Meadows last week that should have him fit and ready. The son of Pioneerof the Nile was a beaten choice in all three of his starts as a 2-year-old in good company but could easily return a better type as an older horse for a barn that hits at 28% with layoff runners. Flame Zapper and Propensity, two-three finishers over this course and distance in a race that was assigned a very strong speed figure, both have the benefit of recent racing and should prove formidable. The former has a good stalking style while the latter looks like a need-the-lead type and may prove elusive if not pressured early.
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RACE 7: Post 4:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Lapochka; 6-Chase Runner

Forecast: Chase Runner is in good form for winning connections and stretches out to his preferred one mile trip in race that should have him ideally placed outside stalking what projects to be a moderate pace. First or second in six of 14 career starts and with rising speed figures, the son of Big Brown looks fairly enticing at or near his morning line of 4-1. Lapochka moves up a couple of notches after a strong win for $8,000 over this track and distance 13 days ago and if he can come close that type of effort off the short rest he’ll be tough right back. However, that may be a tall task for a horse that doesn’t have a history of stringing good races together.
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RACE 8: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Frenchmen Street; 4-Camp Randall; 7-Captain Ron

Forecast: Frenchmen Street, first off the claim for M. Maker, won an off-the-turf abbreviated sprint for $40,000 last month but can be just as effective on grass and looks live on the raise. Always consistent in the speed figure department, the Malibu Moon can be effective on the lead or from the second flight, so T. Gaffalione can play it by ear. Captain Ron could be the quickest in the field but is another that is more than capable of winning as a stalker or presser and may be able to dictate the race from his outside draw. Much improved since being claimed for $10,000 last November, the lightly raced 7-year-old is fresh from a career top effort against a lesser state-bred field but on pure numbers is a fit at this level. Camp Randall, with just three career starts and a perfect two-for-two over this course and distance, has more upside than the others and is another with the versatility to handle any type of pace scenario. In a tough, competitive event, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while giving Frenchmen Street a very slight not on top.
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RACE 9: Post 5:12 ET. Grade:
Use: 2-Edge of Fire; 4-Ournationalonparade; 7-Silver Ratio

Forecast: This first-level allowance miler for 3-year-olds looks deep and competitive and offers a stiff task for the impressive debut winner Edge of Fire, who didn’t earn much of a speed figure in victory but was never asked for anything close to his best after extracting himself from traffic trouble much of the way while displaying a proper style for a stretch out in trip. The son of Curlin is a high potential type for J. Jerkens but will need to produce a significant forward move to handle this group of fast, seasoned sophomores. At 8-1 on the morning line, the price is right for such a gamble, so we’ll put him on top but also include a couple of others in our rolling exotics for protection. Ournationonparade, a close third in the Hutcheson Stakes in his sophomore debut, should step forward with that effort behind him at a distance that should complement his pace-pressing style. At 9/2 on the morning line, the Maryland-bred gelding is a “must use.” Soros, entered in the Florida Derby-G1 on Saturday but we suspect will remain in this spot (his connections also have Independence Hall in the big race), showed good ability last fall when as a maiden winning the Smooth Air Stakes over this track and distance, rallying from mid-pack to earn a useful speed figure. His recent workouts indicate the G. Delgado-trained son of Commissioner is plenty fit and ready.
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RACE 10: Post 5:43 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Bacchanalia; 6-Wildlife; 9-Silver Kitten

Forecast: Silver Kitten, an excellent runner-up in the Honey Fox S.-G3 last month and the likely controlling speed in a race that on paper projects to have modest early fractions, shows numbers that have risen in each of her last five starts and deserves top billing in this second-level allowance nine furlong turf affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez and will be very hard deny if handed the front end but figures tough even if she’s relegated to a stalker’s role from her outside draw. Bacchanalia is another improving filly and earned a career top number when beating a lesser allowance field in late January with a relentless late kick. Her chances increase if the race-shape isn’t too skewed. Wildlife is 12-1 on the morning line and is absolutely worth including in our rolling exotics at that price. Away since November and exiting a pair of graded stakes races, the daughter of Animal Kingdom returns to the second-level allowance ranks, lands Johnny V., and with a bit of help up front could be dangerous with her deep-closing style. On pure numbers she’s right there with these, but the barn’s lack of success with layoff runners justifies her big price.
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RACE 11: Post 6:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Gufo; 5-Ask for Bode; 9-Unconquered Lea

Forecast: Unconquered Lea graduated for fun in a visually pleasing performance over a mile in his first try on grass and today tackles tougher while stretching out to nine furlongs. The B. Perkins, Jr.-trained colt may not have things his own way on the front end this time (it would be nice if he did) but after a bullet grass drill since his win last month the son of Lea could easily take the class hike in stride even if forced to stalk and pounce as is likely with Ask for Bode drawn inside of him. The Bodemeister colt dismantled a maiden $75,000 field at first asking on the front end with solid splits, earning a useful speed figure, and while better will be needed to score right back the E. Kenneally-trained sophomore might be tough to catch if not respected up front. At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss him in. Gufo, a first-time Lasix user for the always-potent Clement-Rosario team, makes his first start since breaking his maiden over this course in December with a nice display of late speed, His style suggests today’s mile and one-eighth journey will promote his chances and at 9/2 on the morning line the son of Declaration of War is another “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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Santa Anita - Bob Mieszerski

Race 3

Destiny’s Journey: Drops into softer spot and returns to dirt, her lone victory came on dirt.
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Gulfstream - Ron Nicoletti

1 - 2-6-8
2 - 1-2-7
3 - 8-9-1
4 - 4-9-5
5 - 2-1-5
6 - 10-9-1
7 - 6-5-4
8 - 4-3-5
9 - 7-8-4
10 - 5-9-7
11 - 3-2-5
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Gulfstream - Jason Blewitt

RACE1:2 –6 –4 –9
RACE 2:2 –1 –7 –5
RACE 3: 7 –9 –8 –1
RACE4: 4 –5 –9 –10
RACE 5: 7 –1 –2 –4
RACE 6:6 –10 –9 –5
RACE7:4 –5 –7 –1
RACE8: 3 –7 –4 –2
RACE9: 7 –2 –1 –3
RACE 10:5 –9 –7 –3
RACE 11: 9 –10 –2 –3
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Los Alamitos

Race 1:#4 Lost the Minister (9/5)
Race 2:#3 Curryforthree Bang (2/1)
Race 3:#6 Knight Solaire (12/1)
Race 4:#1 Run Factor (2/1)
Race 5:#6 Jespinky (1/1)
Race 6:#6 Kates First Down (9/2)
Race 7:#2 Get Away Car (8/5)
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Tampa Bay

Race 1:#3 Palaces Diamond (4/1)
Race 2:#5 Sonoma Storm (7/2)
Race 3:#9 Thuya (6/1)
Race 4:#5 Geography (7/2)
Race 5:#2 R Sweet Exchange (7/2)
Race 6:#1 Vaunt (5/2)
Race 7:#2 Dox Folly (3/1)
Race 8:#2 Vi Haines (3/1)
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Professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim

The model is leaning Under 2.5 goals in Ruh Brest vs. Energetik-BGU, but its much stronger plays are on the money line for both matches.

Trademate Sports Model

Gjelstad and Norheim advise members to shop around for the best prices possible. If you can find odds equal or better to the odds listed below, you've got good value.

Belarusian Premier League

Torpedo-Belaz Zhodino v. Belshina (11 a.m. ET)

Money line: Torpedo-Belaz Zhodino -188

Against the spread: At -0.50, back Torpedo-Belaz Zhodino.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Torpedo-Belaz Zhodino 1, Belshina 0

Ruh Brest v. Energetik-BGU (1 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +250

Against the spread: At +0.50, back Ruh Brest.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Ruh Brest 1, Energetik-BGU 1
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Jeff Siegel on Vsin

1st Race at Gulfstream Park #2 Counterstrike

11th Race at Gulfstream Park #9 Unconquered Lea
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Tracks Running Today

Golden Gate
Gulfstream
Los Alamitos
Oaklawn
Remington
Santa Anita
Tampa Bay
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The Sharp Plays

Belarus Premier League... not much on the early soccer. Very small sharp buy on Zhodino -205.
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