Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 3/26/20
By Mike Dempsey
Entries came out for Saturday’s Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park and we have a blockbuster 14-race card that will keep me up late the next few nights.
The marquee event is the $1 million Florida Derby (G1), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. This year’s edition drew a field of 12 led by Tiz the Law.
The Florida Derby has been one of the most important preps for the Run for the Roses in recent years. Among the Kentucky Derby winners that used the Florida Derby as a final prep include Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), Orb (2013), Ice Box (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006).
Last year Maximum Security used the Florida Derby as a prep but was disqualified for interference after crossing the wire in front on the first Saturday of May.
TIz the Law was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite. The Barclay Tagg trainee drew the seven post with jockey Manny Franco in the irons. The colt won the Holy Bull (G3) over the Gulfstream Park main track in his last outing, his third win in four career starts.
Ete Indian is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line but drew the 12 post. The Patrick Biancone trainee won the Fountain of Youth (G2) from the 10 post last out by 8 ½ lengths. He had run second to Tiz the Law in the Hoy Bull, beaten three lengths.
Independence Hall is 9-2 and will break from the nine post with Joel Rosario aboard. The colt ran second in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in his last outing.
There are six supporting stakes on an outstanding betting card and there will be a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Pick 6.
Among the horses in action on Saturday is Newspaperofrecord in the $100,00 Sand Springs. The Chad Brown trainee won the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) but came up short in each of her three starts last year.
With the Coronavirus crisis in full swing the list of tracks that are still running is shrinking. Among the tracks still running are Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay Downs, Fonner Park, Will Rogers Downs, Los Alamitos, Remington Park and Oaklawn Park.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $200 for new players.
To purchase my Gulfstream Park and Best Plays Reports for Thursday click here
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Md $16,000 (1:00 ET)
#9 Kayseri 6-1
#11 Bee Wings 8-1
#7 Madame Moon 1-1
#2 Businessindubai 10-1
Analysis: Kayseri tracked the early pace and tired to finish sixth last out against $25,000 foe while in the Casse barn. The filly was claimed out of the race by the Dibona barn that is 19% winners first off the claim. She ran well two back in her local debut over good ground where she chased the early pace, took over the lead heading for home and weakened to finish third. The blinkers come off and she drops in for $16,000. She is out of a Meadowlake mare that has dropped five winners including one turf winner.
Bee Wings was off poorly when clipping heels soon after the break and she came with a good late run to finish in the runner up spot for hi tag at 9-1. She has had troubled starts three of her five starts and got into traffic troubles in one of her other outings. She gets a jock upgrade here to Lopez and in her second career start she was beaten just a half-length in a runner up finish at GP West. A clean trip and she can be in the mix at a decent price.
Wagering
WIN: # 9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 9,11 / 2,7,9,11
TRI: 9,11 / 2,7,9,11 / 2,7,9,11,13
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 6 Clm $10,000 (3:52 CT)
#1 Esposito 7-2
#6 You Split Tens 4-1
#3 Carmelo 7-2
#9 Hold On Angel 12-1
Analysis: Esposito pressed the early pace and finished gamely to come up just a neck short last out against $6,250 foes going a mile here. The winner Canadian Game came back to beat $16,000 claimers here on March 21. The gelding beat $6,250 foes two back by two lengths in a sharp effort. He owns a solid pace profile throughout with good early and mid pace numbers. He fits well in this spot.
You Split Tens tracked the early pace, came up the inside and took over the lead and drew clear late to win by two lengths over $6,250 foes. He was claimed out of the race by the Villafranco barn that is 14% winners first off the claim. He is back on track after getting outrun two back off a two-month break against $12,500 foes. He looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9
TRI: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,3,5,6,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 8 Clm $16,000N2L (4:36 ET)
#8 Too Much War 6-1
#1 Jost Sayin 7-2
#7 Karenina 3-1
#6 Cassidy's Smile 6-1
Analysis: Too Much War makes her second start off a long layoff here for the sharp Gargan barn that has won at a 30% clip at the meeting. Last out off the bench the filly stalked the early pace and tired to finish seventh at 12-1. She broke her maiden over the turf here at 7 1/2 furlongs in her debut back in July of '18. She gets a jock upgrade here from the big to Saez and should be tighter second off the bench.
Jost Sayin stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. The winner Hanie came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of three in her next outing on March 1 at Tampa Bay Downs. Two others came out of the race to run second in their next starts. She has come up short at this level five times but has landed in the money in her last four and now gets a barn switch to Carlos who is having a strong meeting hitting at a 23% clip and is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,6,7,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,6,7,8 / 1,6,7,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #11 Bee Wings 8-1
R1: #2 Businessindubai 10-1
R2: #3 Meet Cute 8-1
R2: #7 Frank Alone 10-1
R3: #2 Guaco 8-1
R4: #9 American River 15-1
R10: #8 Zippy 12-1
R10: #3 Belgrano 8-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race 1
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $18,200 • Post: 1:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 26, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LIPPY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. MISS XIMENA: Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DESTINY'S LOVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ITALIAN JUSTICE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ISABELLE'S JOY: Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4
LIPPY
4/1
5/1
1
MISS XIMENA
3/1
6/1
6
DESTINY'S LOVE
9/2
7/1
8
ITALIAN JUSTICE
7/2
9/1
2
ISABELLE'S JOY
6/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
6
DESTINY'S LOVE
6
9/2
Front-runner
80
81
96.4
71.0
64.5
7
SASSY SETA
7
12/1
Front-runner
75
76
81.2
71.6
62.1
8
ITALIAN JUSTICE
8
7/2
Front-runner
74
76
80.8
68.4
58.9
2
ISABELLE'S JOY
2
6/1
Front-runner
80
75
67.6
74.8
66.3
1
MISS XIMENA
1
3/1
Alternator/Stalker
86
81
80.0
73.0
66.0
4
LIPPY
4
4/1
Alternator/Stalker
92
83
79.2
67.9
63.4
3
MIA PROMESSA
3
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
79
71
51.0
65.6
52.1
5
ALL FACT
5
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
78
74
76.8
65.4
54.4
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park
PURCHASE
Turfway Park - Race 5
Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 79 • Purse: $46,000 • Post: 8:12P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $30,000).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CLAUDETTE NONSTOP: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AUNTIE MABEL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mi le time in its last race. SUNNYMEDE DREAM: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
14
CLAUDETTE NONSTOP
5/2
5/1
4
AUNTIE MABEL
3/1
5/1
5
SUNNYMEDE DREAM
8/1
7/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
12
MS. DRAGONETTE
12
12/1
Front-runner
0
0
92.0
23.7
12.7
5
SUNNYMEDE DREAM
5
8/1
Front-runner
76
76
73.9
59.7
54.2
11
KEEP THIS KITTEN
11
10/1
Alternator/Front-runner
64
55
50.6
53.9
45.9
14
CLAUDETTE NONSTOP
14
5/2
Stalker
75
70
67.2
55.4
46.9
4
AUNTIE MABEL
4
3/1
Stalker
73
66
37.0
62.6
53.1
3
TEMRIK
3
15/1
Alternator/Stalker
0
0
61.6
55.0
47.0
7
LELE
7
7/2
Trailer
0
0
61.5
57.2
49.7
8
SALLY O'BRIEN
8
20/1
Trailer
0
0
58.8
50.2
40.2
Unknown Running Style: SHIP'S CREEK (4/1) [Jockey: Jimenez Albin - Trainer: Colebrook Ben], NATIVE CHARM (10/1) [Jockey: Burke Julie - Trainer: Deegan Joseph], PANINI (20/1) [Jockey: Mckee John - Trainer: Mulcahy Geoff], GYPSY'S FEATHER (15/1) [Jocke
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