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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstreak Park Wagering Strategies - 3/25/20

March 25, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 10-Mayito; 12-Rapstorerocks

Forecast: Maiden $16,000 claiming 3-year-olds compete over a mile on grass in the Wednesday opener. Tampa Bay Downs invader Mayito joins the high-percentage S. Joseph, Jr. barn and is a first-time gelding dropping to his lowest level ever so it’s logical to think he’ll improve considerably, especially with a pattern that shows rising speed figures in each of his three career starts. The barn’s go-to rider E. Jaramillo takes the call, so we’re expecting the son of Declaration of War to be along in time while offering value at or near his morning line of 7/2. Rolling exotic player looking for back-up should consider Rapstorerocks, poorly drawn in the 12-hole but switching to red-hot P. Lopez and likely to produce a dangerous closing kick if given the patient handling that he apparently prefers.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lookn Fine as Wine; 6-Garner State Park; 11-Harmonic Thunder

Forecast: Here’s another maiden claiming turf miler, this one for 3-year-old fillies. Lookn Fine as Wine, much better drawn today than in her last race, drops to her lowest level ever and projects to enjoy a soft second-flight, ground-saving trip. She’s a fit on speed figures and clearly has little to beat, so we’ll put her on top pretty much by default. Garner State Park, originally a $60,000 Keeneland January yearling buy, is a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn debuting in a maiden $16,000 affair, so obviously she’s not well-liked by the connections, but how good does she really have to be? The daughter of Lea shows works at Palm Beach Downs that don’t look too bad, so we’ll toss her in. Harmonic Thunder is another worth consideration. The daughter of Honor Code plummets from maiden $50,000 while returning to grass for a high percentage outfit and has numbers fit. Despite her outside draw the S. Joseph Jr.-trained filly has a right to be a strong threat in a weak affair.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Champagne Bliss; 3-Cory Gal; 4-No Se Vende

Forecast: Champagne Bliss went stale in New York during the winter when facing infinitely tougher competition but today shows up in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer for new connections and is the one to beat with anything close to her best effort. However, given the sketchy and race workout pattern, the daughter of Into Mischief isn’t one to trust at 2-1 on the morning line, so we’ll spread a little deeper in our rolling exotic play. Cory Gal, double-jumped in class in her first-off-the-claim for G. Delgado (always dangerous with this maneuver), switches to the main track and will take them as far as she can on the front end. She’s just 1-for-17 during her career but at least the one win came over the Gulfstream Park main track. No Se Vende has back numbers that put her right there and her best form has been accomplished over the local dirt strip. She projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 4: Post 2:31 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Cuy; 5-Don’t Tase Me Bro; 9-Still Schemin

Forecast: This is a split of the first today and on paper looks like the weaker half. Don’t Tase Me Bro drops from maiden $50,000 to the maiden $16,000, adds blinkers and moves to the S. Klesaris barn. If he can run, this would be a good place to show it and on pure numbers he seems likely to improve considerably against this group. Still Schemin has produced a forward move according to his speed figures in each of four career outings and gets a better draw today while switching to E. Jaramillo. He’ll be doing his best work late. Cuy is improving with racing and represents a late threat, so with another forward move the E. Dobles-trained gelding figures in the picture. On the negative side, the switch to a very low percentage jockey doesn’t inspire confidence. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spready deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 5: Post 3:03 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Simple Story; 7-Liam’s Lookout; 9-Daily Grace

Forecast: Maiden $50,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies sprint six and one-half furlongs in the opening leg of the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6 Liam’s Lookout flashed speed before fading in her debut in a fairly strong straight maiden dash last month, gets off the rail today, and drops for the money run while switching to J. Rosario for a solid outfit. She’s 9/2 on the morning line and at that price (or near it) she represents a reasonable gamble against this considerably softer group. Daily Grace had a couple of runs vs. straight maidens before this drop into a seller and is another should greatly appreciate the class relief. A disappointing fourth as the favorite last time out after a promising runner-up effort in her debut, the daughter of Uncaptured should be on or near the lead throughout from a stalking spot and should have no excuses. Simply Story, a very runner-up (while more than six lengths clear of the others) over a sloppy surface at this level at Churchill Downs in November, makes her first start since for S. Hough (competent stats with layoff runners and second-timers) and will be dangerous if she returns as well as she left. The rail post for a filly that didn’t show any gate speed in her only outing looks problematic, but she gets an extra half furlong to work with day and with good racing luck should be heard from late. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Liam’s Lookout on top.
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RACE 6: Post 3:34 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Liza Star; 6-Day by Day

Forecast: Day by Day seems the solid top pick in this optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares. First or second in 17 of 30 career starts, the genuine and consistent daughter of Awesome of Course switches to L. Saez, is strong based on recent speed figures, and should be in an ideal stalking position throughout. She’s 2-1 on the morning line while her chief rival, Liza Star, is listed as the 8/5 choice and also is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The P. Walder-trained mare was a bit disappointing when weakening late to finish second at even money in the Lady Bird Stakes last month, but eight of nine career victories have been accomplished over the Gulfstream Park main track and this shortening to six furlongs for the projected controlling speed could make her difficult to catch. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Day by Day.
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RACE 7: Post 4:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Verdict Is In; 8-Keepsakekitten; 9-Earthquack

Forecast: Keepsakekitten seems well-spotted in the seventh race, a $16,000 claimer over a mile on grass for 3-year-olds. An all-out winner of a starter’s optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs in late January, the son of Kitten’s Joy is realistically spotted by the high percentage S. Joseph, Jr. barn, switches to L. Saez, and has a good stalking style that should ensure a trouble-free trip. There’s probably not much value to be found at 9/5 on the morning line, so we’ll prefer him on top but also include a couple of other contenders in our rolling exotics. Verdict Is In missed by a neck when more than six lengths clear of the others in a slightly stronger affair here last month and on pure numbers won’t need to improve much to regain his winning form against this group. The son of Lea likes this course, is drawn comfortable inside, and should draft into a nice second flight, ground-saving trip. Earthquake looked good winning at this level in an off-the-turf sloppy track score last month but actually has stronger speed figures on grass, so this return to the sod shouldn’t impact him at all. The son of Brethen likes to lag and kick it in late and with some help up front should be heard from late.
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RACE 8: Post 4:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-The Tabulator; 2-Fast Pass

Forecast: This three-other-than sprint should boil down to the two inside runners. The Tabulator, freshened since September, was entered last Friday but remained in his stall when the entire card was canceled. The former graded stakes winner returns in a plausible spot for a barn that boasts superb stats with layoff runners, so we’re going to assume that the son of Dialed In is fit and ready. The lightly-raced five-year-old, a winner of six of 14 career starts including the Iroquois S.-G3 in his younger days, has shown the ability on at least two occasions to fire a big shot fresh, so if he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail the L. Rivelli-trained horse should be hard to contain while either on the lead or from a stalking position. Fast Pass, first or second in 22 of 41 career stars, packs a powerful late kick but his lack of tactical speed may land him in a disadvantageous position that projects to have modest early fractions. He’s a pro’s pro and always must be respected but given the race flow we’ll give The Tabulator a slight edge on top.
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RACE 9: Post 5:07 ET. Grade: X
Single:5-Lemonist

Forecast: Lemonist, a $40,000 claim by S. Joseph, Jr. last month, returns for $25,000, certainly not a healthy sign, but this barn has a strike rate 40% with a significant flat-bet profit with first-off-the-claim plays this is type of maneuver that helps create fancy stats. and one of the main reasons is that it tends to very aggressive with its placements. At 9/5 on the morning line, the son of Lemon Drop Kid probably won’t offer much wagering value, but if it’s not him, it could be any one of a dozen others, so we’ll bite the bullet and make him a rolling exotic single while otherwise passing the race.
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RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mandate; 5-Blessed Journey; 7-Venezuelan Hug

Forecast: Blessed Journey, fourth when earning a career top speed figure despite a very wide trip, drops below his claim level for the first time, switches to P. Lopez, and makes his first start as a gelding. The R. Hess, Jr.-trained son of Gemologist returns to grass should draft into a good second flight position and then grind away from there. Mandate surfaces in a maiden claimer for the first time, is a fit on speed figures and is the likely choice (8/5 morning line) and one to beat. The T. Pletcher-trained son of Blame, originally a $200,000 yearling, was given three chances to show his ability to in straight maiden company but was not really competitive; he’ll find this group far less challenging. Venezuelan Hug, fourth without really posing a threat in a straight maiden turf miler earlier this month, is dropped realistically in class and has a right to improve with that big of experience behind him. He’s a fit on figures and may be a threat from off the pace. These are the three we’ll be using on rolling exotic play but there are a few others with credentials so the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Wil of Fortune ML favorite blew a 3-length lead late last time against state breds at RP when last seen in December but looms the controlling speed here, and shortens up a half-furlong too; looks long gone.
#8 Ikon Who Class dropper hasn't been seen since August, so he may need this, but he's been facing much better, and his dirt runs are solid, plus, aside from the chalk, this is a weak group; do not ignore.
Daring Ego Fellow RP shipper is another coming off a December layoff, and he's got some hit or miss form, but his sprints have been better than his routes, so he can get a piece here; exotics contender.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 5 but that 5-2 ML seems like a big overlay, as a repeat of his last, or anything close to it, might lap this field, so make an aggressive win or place bet at 2-1 or better, though you can get some built-in value by singling him to kick off the early Pk4, since that's not a move the public likes to employ to start a sequence, which means you can turn him into more value than the tote suggests, while also allowing yourself for more coverage in the deeper, surrounding legs.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Euro Surprise Remington invader was facing Ok-breds on debut, and it came in December, but he ran in a very fast race for the level, which means that 5th was better than it looks, and it's not like there are any tigers singed on here; look out.
#8 Ninethirtyturbo ML favorite chased then tired but was a clear 2nd on debut against better in an MCL at Sam Houston, and this outside attack post is perfect for that running style, though at 2-1 he has no margin for error either; scary, but no lock.
#4 Baptism Firster goes for a solid enough Dixon barn (12%) and shows several encouraging morning drills for this unveiling, highlighted by the 1/30 bullet, and note that Kimes is 25% when he rides for the barn, which is a big angle; looks live.
Race Summary You could make a case that the 3 should be favored, so to see him as the third-choice on the ML makes him very intriguing, and if the 4 doesn't take any money on debut the pick becomes that much more appealing, so play him to win and place, and make sure to use him to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since there are three here who will take plenty of play, and the other two are likely to take more of it, which means a lot of tickets will be knocked out right off the bat.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Word to the Wise Impressive debut winner dueled hard throughout, kicked clear, the held in the mud on debut, and while facing winners is never easy, and he comes in off a November layoff too, he does look like the controlling speed; come and catch the pick.
#3 Eurobadguy Rousing MSW winner two-back didn't fore against open foes on the turf when last seen in November, but he's back with friends here, and if the pick gets hooked, then his late run will be that much more dangerous in the lane; very playable.
#1 Caney's Ghost Dicey ML favorite actually still hasn't won a race, as he got put up via DQ last time, and note he got the dreaded hung label that day too, so sure, he fits, but this is a tough ask, especially from a potentially tricky rail draw; trying to beat on top.
Race Summary Pace makes the race, and on paper there is no one who can run early with the 7, so play aggressively him to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk4 as well, since he tipped his hand in that debut win, and this seems like an onward and upward type of spot, yet he might not even be favored either.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Third Dimension Probably won't be any kind of price, but he's a pretty reliable type who didn't miss by much in the local debut last out.
#10 Drastic Pace was right in the photo with the top choice last time out, but this is his 20th career start, so he's not really brimming with excuses at this point.
#9 Backchatter Think that last one might be just a touch better than it looks on paper, and he can probably move forward a bit off the comeback run.
Race Summary Third Dimension has tactical pace and some consistent running lines to his credit, and his baseline effort is probably good enough to win this.

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Free Music Worth a little shot after the poor showing on the off track last out, and his two-back race may keep him in the mix with these at a price.
#8 Commander McDivitt Speed goes off the claim but does so with a couple of compelling running lines from his last couple of races. The one to beat?
#2 Theboyzdelight Reliable finisher posted a local win with lesser last out, and that run isn't very far off what it might take to win right back on the hike.
Race Summary Free Music looks the part of a potential price player, as he can get a good forward trip while back on dry land and didn't miss by much at this level two starts back.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Top of the Page Finisher usually runs a good one and exits a couple of easy wins at Delta Downs in the recent tries. Barn has been doing good work here.
#4 Smarty Party Papa Tracking pace can get a good run of things in this spot, and his 4-for-7 local record speaks for itself.
#2 Knight Disruptor Reliable type might not have quite as high a ceiling as some others in here, but he almost always shows up and figures to be there for a piece.
Race Summary Top of the Page gets the edge here off the Delta claim, and anything like his last two would probably dispatch this bunch if he handles the local footing.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 53

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $15,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 JO JO'S HALO 6/1

# 9 AMERICAN REBEL 3/1

# 5 I'M ALL MIXED UP 4/1

I like JO JO'S HALO here. Must be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. With Stokes on top her, this filly ought to be able to break out sharply for this race. AMERICAN REBEL - I like the rider on this filly - strong chance to win the outing. I think having Beschizza ride this filly is a smart selection. I'M ALL MIXED UP - The average Equibase class figure of 45 makes this one difficult to beat. This equine could upset this lot at a big price.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Sam Houston - Race #4 - Post: 1:53pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 LITTLE AVENGER (ML=5/2)
#8 IMA REAL DEAL (ML=9/2)

LITTLE AVENGER - Trainer Asmussen moves this thoroughbred down in class to face a weaker level today. Look for a nice effort this time out. That 72 fig this colt registered in his last race tells me he's a key player this time around. IMA REAL DEAL - Cravens brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Trainer Cravens moves this thoroughbred to a lower class level to face a weaker class today. Look for a strong performance in here. Trainer, Cravens, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. The addition of blinks usually means that a trainer wants a thoroughbred to show more zip or to keep his attention focused.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MORO APPEAL (ML=8/5), #1A MORO CHARLIE (ML=8/5), #7 MY TEXAS CHROME (ML=6/1),

MORO APPEAL - When checking today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed fig than last out to battle in this dirt sprint. MORO CHARLIE - 8/5 is not priced right for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint contest recently. MY TEXAS CHROME - This questionable contender has had no success at Sam Houston. Doubtful that the fig he recorded on March 6th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 LITTLE AVENGER on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4500 Class Rating: 66

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 PANIC BUTTON 4/1

# 9 ANALYZING 8/1

# 2 MUMFORD 15/1

PANIC BUTTON looks to be a decent contender. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most favorable in this group. Recorded a solid speed figure last time out. Has put up solid speed figures in dirt route races in the past. ANALYZING - Has put up strong Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 72, has one of the best class advantages in this group. MUMFORD - Overall the speed figures of this pony look very good in this contest. McNeil will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early here.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

03/25/20, TAM, Race 3, 1.45 ET
03/25/20,TAM,3,6F [Dirt] 1:08:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,500. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 7 Stack Shack 4-1 Leon J A Granitz Anthony J. FEWC 39.11 1.07/$1
098.16 4 Bahama Pearl 7/2 Gallardo A A Carvajal. Jr. Luis JSL 49.38 1.03/$1
097.45 2 Bramble Berry 5/2 Ferrer J C Dini Michael 42.86 1.06/$1
094.89 1 Lincoln Center 8-1 Quinonez A Tomlinson Michael A. 42.86 1.06/$1
094.42 8 Timeless Di 9/2 Coa K J Proctor Thomas F. 40.00 1.52/$1
093.42 5 Flaming Indy 12-1 Allen. Jr. R D Bowersock Maria 36.93 0.90/$1
092.88 3 Sidney Sue 10-1 Santos A Stewart Chad J. 40.00 1.52/$1
090.98 6 Dramatone 8-1 Camacho S Bennett Gerald S. T 36.93 0.90/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.59, ROI 0.67/$1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 JO JO'S HALO (ML=6/1)

JO JO'S HALO - This filly is in nice physical condition. Ran second on February 28th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 AMERICAN REBEL (ML=3/1), #1 EZEE ENOUGH (ML=7/2), #5 I'M ALL MIXED UP (ML=4/1),

AMERICAN REBEL - The probable favorite is shaky here with the lack of morning drills. Earned a pedestrian rating in the last race in a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race on Feb 28th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. EZEE ENOUGH - I don't possess a 'use' feeling about this horse in this event. I'M ALL MIXED UP - Just cannot play this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on Jan 24th.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JO JO'S HALO - Castille is making good money with this horse. At the top in earnings per start.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 JO JO'S HALO is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

03/25/20, GP, Race 10, 5.38 ET
03/25/20,GP,10,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $35,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 2 lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 96 feet).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 10 Healy's Hope 10-1 Rodriguez A A Rice Linda FEC 28.89 1.41/$1
098.40 5 Blessed Journey 9/2 Lopez P Hess. Jr. Robert B. J 28.89 1.41/$1
097.15 4 Mandate 8/5 Saez L Pletcher Todd A. 30.09 1.12/$1
096.30 7 Venezuelan Hug 6-1 Meneses M Delgado Alexis S 31.27 1.29/$1
095.36 11 Metcalf 20-1 Fuentes M Gutierrez Fausto 28.89 1.41/$1
095.35 6 Rodeo Red(b+) 10-1 Jaramillo E Swick Don 28.89 1.41/$1
095.10 3 Happy Danza(b+) 15-1 Gonzalez S Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos 28.89 1.41/$1
095.03 8 Chocolate Bar 8-1 Davis D Maker Michael J. W 30.09 1.12/$1
094.74 1 Backanbleu 20-1 Leparoux J R Tomlinson Michael A. 30.09 1.12/$1
093.94 2 Bee Major 15-1 Lebron V Mazza John F. TL 28.89 1.41/$1
090.72 9 Alejandro's Team 30-1 Vasquez M A Garoffalo Jose 28.89 1.41/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 30.16, ROI 1.09/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 4 Mandate 8/5 Saez L Pletcher Todd A. T 27.13 0.78/$1
099.41 8 Chocolate Bar 8-1 Davis D Maker Michael J. W 27.13 0.78/$1
099.37 2 Bee Major 15-1 Lebron V Mazza John F. L 33.33 1.03/$1
098.84 3 Happy Danza(b+) 15-1 Gonzalez S Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos 32.00 1.36/$1
097.44 10 Healy's Hope 10-1 Rodriguez A A Rice Linda FEC 61.54 1.99/$1
096.82 5 Blessed Journey 9/2 Lopez P Hess. Jr. Robert B. J 29.41 1.03/$1
095.99 7 Venezuelan Hug 6-1 Meneses M Delgado Alexis S 35.42 1.13/$1
095.77 1 Backanbleu 20-1 Leparoux J R Tomlinson Michael A. 52.38 1.30/$1
094.58 6 Rodeo Red(b+) 10-1 Jaramillo E Swick Don 32.00 1.36/$1
094.36 11 Metcalf 20-1 Fuentes M Gutierrez Fausto 25.00 1.10/$1
089.55 9 Alejandro's Team 30-1 Vasquez M A Garoffalo Jose 29.41 1.03/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.57, ROI 0.76/$1
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 No Se Vende Couldn't get to the leaders in turf sprints lately but showed more speed and usually finished better on the main track; choice.
#6 Bahamian Girl Rapid enough to quickly overcome the outside post and has been in much tougher races; was stakes placed last year and figures well here.
#2 Champagne Bliss Ran a couple of good ones at Aqueduct last fall and since then was overmatched; could be a factor for this claiming price.
Race Summary No Se Vende should enjoy the return to the main track, can get a stalking position and has a good chance to run down the leaders.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Misschief Maas Could be overlooked here but has been in some very good races and often has a solid closing move.
#5 Liza Star Extremely rapid, can carve out the fractions here and could benefit from turning back in distance.
#6 Day by Day Another with excellent early speed and should be able to press throughout; beat a good group two races back.
Race Summary Misschief Mass can benefit from following a very fast pace and could close it out late at a price.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Whyruawesome Lost a photo in a stakes race last out and has the speed to get a good position from the outset; his best can get it done here.
#2 Fast Pass Closed mildly in the G3 World of Trouble and scored an impressive win two back; usually a late threat in these sprints.
#1 The Tabulator Has won 6 of 14 and is well-traveled; Rivelli charge can be in good position from the outset.
Race Summary Whyruawesome has been knocked at the door, has the tactical speed to be a factor from the start and can make 1st run ahead of the deep closers.
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Bob Weir

Tampa Bay Downs

Late Pick 4

Begins at 2:46 p.m. ET with Race 5 and goes through Race 8.

Tampa Bay Downs 5th
4 Town Classic (5-2): Proven at the distance and on the track. He was claimed two races back by Gerald Bennett (24%), stretched to a route and now returns to the seven-furlong distance, which he won at with a career-high Beyer speed figure of 95. There should be enough pace to set up his run.

7 General Paddy (6-1): He's 6-for-9 at Tampa but will be trying seven furlongs for the first time. Has three strong races around two turns; distance should be a good fit.

8 Sacramento Q (10-1): Claimed last out by Gerald Bennett (see Town Classic above). After a two-month break, he returns at double the level ($16,000 to $32,000). Speed figures are a little light, but I like the move by Bennett (winning at 28 percent first off the claim). Legitimate shot.

6 My Boy Lenny (2-1): Comes in off a six-furlong win in which he controlled an easy pace and was claimed. Returns at seven furlongs, where he lost his only previous attempt. With him as the likely favorite, I'm inclined to fade him and use him only as backup. But if one of the top three horses scratches, elevate him to an "A" horse.

A: 4,7,8
B: 6
C: 1,2,3,5

Tampa Bay Downs 6th
2 North Dakota (8-5): Has simply run faster than the other horses in this field. Moves from Gulfstream Park to Tampa Bay Downs. The only concern is that this will be his seventh attempt as a maiden. Has not failed as a favorite as he has been facing much tougher. I will use him as a lone "A" but will use some backup horses in case he just likes finishing second and third.

1 Enjoy the Music (9-2): He's returning from a short layoff and making his second start on turf and is a 3-year-old facing older. He's capable of improving for trainer Arnaud Delacour and jockey Daniel Centeno.

6 Idle Time (7-2): First time starter for Christophe Clement who has won with four of his last 13 first-time starters on the turf over the last three months.

9 Winter's Wonder (8-1): Consistent horse who has not found the perfect trip yet and probably needs a drop to maiden claimers.

Also-eligible 11 Burning Bright (8-1): Add as a "B" horse if he draws in.

A: 2
B: 1,6,9,11

Tampa Bay Downs 7th
1 Mamaigotthis (2-1): Stretched out last time after two sprints to start his career. Improved last time and now tries the same distance again. With little else in this field, he looks strong.

10 Shift the Blame (9-2): Returned to race on March 4 after an extended layoff. Ran a competitive race and now stretches out to one mile and 40 yards. He might be better in his next start, but this seems to be the only horse with potential upside.

4 Little Guy (7-2): He is making his 12th start, comes off two closely spaced seven-furlong races and now stretches out. He's worth a saver as a "B."

6 Diamond Dreamer (12-1): First start was awful, but it was on turf, which he's not really bred for. Drops a level and now tries dirt.

7 Silent Mischief (3-1): Three-year-old gelding is making his 15th start. I'm Inclined to toss him, but he finished third in his last race and earned the second highest speed figure in the field. Drops a notch. Maybe.

A: 1,10
B: 4,6,7

Tampa Bay Downs 8th
4 Calypso Key (6-1): Last race was best yet. It was a reversal of tactics as this 5-year-old mare closed for the first time after repeatedly showing early pace and stopping. Hard to love, but the last effort was something new, and she now drops a level. Might be ready for her best yet.

1 Nerissa (3-1): Has some back races from last year at Fair Grounds that would win this race. Comes off two mediocre turf sprints and now stretches back out. Legitimate win candidate.

3 Miss Wrote (5-1): Ran aggressive race on the lead and almost lasted, finishing second at this level off a long layoff. If she's able to run a little more controlled pace, she could improve second time routing.

8 V K Legacy (7-2): Ran OK in her last race at this level at 30-1. I did not see enough to warrant odds of less than 5-1. I will use her as a backup only.

7 Little Ms Broadway (30-1): Has done very little running so far in four starts on dirt. This will be her first attempt on turf, and she adds blinkers. She was previously entered to run on turf, but the race was washed off. With her at 30-1, I'm willing to take a shot that she could improve with the switch to turf. It will not take a lot to win this race.

A: 1,3,4
B: 7,8

Wagers:
All-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 4,7,8 with 2 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 ($36)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$1.00 Pick 4: 6 with 2 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7,8 with 1,6,9,11 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 ($36)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7,8 with 2 with 4,6,7 with 1,3,4 ($13.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7,8 with 2 with 1,10 with 7,8 ($6)

Three-A, one-C tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5 with 2 with 1,10 with 1,3,4 ($12)

Total wager: $109.50
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Jonathon Kinchen

Pick 4

Gulfstream Park

Begins with Race 7 at 4:05 p.m. ET and goes through Race 10.

Gulfstream Park 7th
2 Verdict Is In (5-2) -- Jockey Paco Lopez was on fire last week. Let's see if he can continue the hot hand. Verdict Is In's last three races are all extremely competitive with this group. He is going to run his race. The biggest question is, What do the other classier horses do?

8 Keepsakekitten (9-5) -- Hasn't run since before the Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl champs. He is arguably the best horse on paper, but the layoff is a concern. He doesn't have a ton of tactical speed, but he should get pace in here with Allgorilla signed on.

7 Allgorilla (4-1) -- He was 209-1 in his last start. He should have never been in that race, and it's possible that could have had a negative impact on him. The tricky part is that he has speed and is a danger to get loose on the class drop. He's hard to pass on, but I can't justify using him as an "A" horse.

A: 2,8
B: 7

Gulfstream Park 8th
2 Fast Pass (5-2) -- Ran really well last time in the World of Trouble Sprint Stakes with a wide closing trip on a racetrack that seemed to favor inside speed. He's making his second start off a layoff and should be rolling late. Big threat.

7 Whyruawesome (7-2) -- There's not much speed in here, and this one seems like he could inherit a great trip from the outside post. Gets one of the best riders and finishers in the world in Joel Rosario.

A: 2,7

Gulfstream Park 9th
5 Lemonist (9-5) -- This horse has "marathon" wins in his form that overwhelm this field. Moves to the high-percentage barn of Saffie Joseph Jr. and should love the added distance.

6 Vegas Kitten (7-2) -- Mike Maker is a great trainer. He is even better when he claims one and changes something. The best part about Vegas Kitten is Maker had him, lost him and claimed him back. That's a confident move.

4 Surf and Turf (8-1) -- There is a small chance I am using this horse because I am craving surf and turf, but I am pretty sure it is more about his speed figures in his last two races, pedigree and ability to quicken.

10 Shazier (8-1) -- Really seems to enjoy the longer distance races such as today's 12 furlongs, which is long for american horses. He ran well on the dirt going 10 furlongs, and his connections are trying him long again despite the poor performance last time. I will give him another chance.

A: 5,6
B: 4,10

Gulfstream Park 10th
4 Mandate (8-5) -- Makes his 3-year-old debut in a maiden claiming race. That could be viewed as a negative, but I feel like lots of horse owners might be aggressively spotting their horses in these uncertain times. (Whether you are the best horse in the world or have never won a race, horses cost more than $100 per day to keep in training.) This feels like a drop to win.

7 Venezuelan Hug (6-1) -- Ran very well against maiden special weight company on debut. I would expect an improvement second time out, and the class relief should put him in contention.

A: 4
B: 7

Wagers
All-A ticket
$5 Pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 5,6 with 4 ($40)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$2 Pick 4: 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 with 4 ($8)
$2 Pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 4,10 with 4 ($16)
$2 Pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 5,6 with 7 ($16)

Two-A, two-B tickets
$1 Pick 4: 7 with 2,7 with 4,10 with 4 ($4)
$1 Pick 4: 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 with 7 ($4)
$1 Pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 4,10 with 7 ($8)

Total wager: $96
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