Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 3/24/20
Will Rogers
Race 1:#6 I’mthebossrightnow (7/2)
Race 2:#1 What Thinking (3/1)
Race 3:#3 Kirk of Diamonds (8/5)
Race 4:#6 Fast One (2/1)
Race 5:#3 Wirewirewire (10/1)
Race 6:#6 Rose Larue (9/2)
Race 7:#3 Dak Da Man (2/1)
Race 8:#5 Settle Down Eileen (3/1)
Race 9:#6 Big Guy Ian (7/2)
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Al Cimaglia: March 24-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 24, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo is back on a new night with the first post scheduled at 6:05 EST. The 0.20 Pick 4 will begin in Race 7. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7
1-Gorgeous For Real (5-1)-Makes 4th start off the bench and last outing was the best so far. Pilot doesn't win often but this post gives him more options. Meets easier and the barn might be waking up. Using and should offer a nice price.
4-Bunker Hill Bill (5-1)-Has finished 2nd when leaving from the 10 and 9-hole in last 2 starts. Gets class relief and post relief but 9-year-old has trouble cashing the biggest check. Should be a player but might be over bet.
5-Almost Cut My Hair (5/2)-Drops out of the Opens and picked up checks there. Did win at this class on 3-6 from this post. Could trip out behind #4 and will likely be bet hard but is a must use.
Race 8
3-Greekona (9/2)-Got on the engine and almost hung on over the weekend. That type of trip isn't typical, was used hard in the 3rd quarter and faded. Looking for another big try with some better rating, maybe a 2-hole trip behind #10.
10-Dontcloseyoureyes (3-1)-Took the long way around last time from the 8-hole and beat 3 from this field. My guess is Roberts will leave and get on the engine but either way, should be a major player.
Race 9
1-Senga Nitro (6-1)-Having the rail will help and fits with this crew. Should be in the hunt at a square price and could get a cozy pocket trip behind the program chalk #7.
3-He Grins Again (4-1)-Drops again looking for a win. Roberts sticks, gets post relief and should be forwardly placed. It's best to not overlook.
7-Contemporary Legend (2-1)-Even effort in last but was off 3-weeks. One of a few dropping and looking to pick up a win. Should be able to get the top and not use up a lot of gas, will respect connections but will look to others as well.
Race 10
2-Bet Together (5-1)-Loses Plano because he trains #7 but does step down and Svendsen can work a good trip. Can be put in play early and could offer a square price.
3-Western Devil (5-1)-Roland picked over #1 and the program chalk #4. Raced big in last and now bumps up but still can pose a threat versus this crew. Barn has been rolling and should be in line for a nice trip.
7-Mr Varsity (3-1)-Drops and this is the softest spot this year. Smells like a drop and pop situation for Team Plano.
0.20 Pick 4
1,4,5/3,10/1,3,7/2,3,7
Total Bet=$10.80
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Getaway Driver Intriguing returnee hasn't been out since June when 6th against tons better at PM, goes for a 24% local Black barn, and has been working big in the AM; call to come back running.
#2 Overanalyzer Class riser chased, kicked clear, then grimly held on against lesser last time, so this tougher group will test him, though he should trip out nicely just off the speed; looms very scary.
#1 Lovethatcause ML favorite was a solid 2nd at the level and looks like the one to catch here, but there's other speed signed on, and 'Over won't let him get too far away early either; trying to beat.
Race Summary That 6-1 ML seems very inviting on the pick, and even 4-1 or so seems fair for a runner who was last seen at a better circuit, and goes for a barn hitting on all cylinders here, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the Pk4, since there's a chance the public looks past the fresh new face, which seemingly would be a big mistake.
Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Picadilly Roadster Stalker was improved 2nd off the long break last time, makes the pivotal third start of his form cycle, will be a nice price, and gets a ton of speed to rally into; upset special.
#9 Gone Preachin Closer was 2nd and ahead of the pick last time, though some 3 lengths behind the chalk, and while he too will like the pace, cutting back a half-furlong won't help; second-best.
#2 Shooters Alley ML favorite has sped off and won for fun in his last two, while beating the top-2 last time, but meets plenty of other speed here, so wiring won't be as easy; comes unglued late.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really flatter the chances of the 4, while likely hurting those of the 2, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the Pk5 as well, since he looks like he's coming up to a big run, which means a win would spice up the sequence right off the bat.
Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Mayzee Lightly raced runner just missed when beaten a neck off an April layoff last time, behind a repeat winner too, and the dip into state-bred stakes foes really isn't a class rise; look out.
#8 Love at Night Deserving stiff ML favorite wins this with her usual, and she is 9-for-11 here, but there's plenty of other speed signed on, and she'll be a very short price as well; backwheel time.
#7 Chub's Charmer Stalker has been a fixture in these Nebraska-bred stakes races for a long time, and though she comes off an August layoff, the fast pace should suit her style; can rally late for a share.
Race Summary The fact they will be the 8 hard only adds to the appeal of the 6, as she's going to be a very square price and looks to be coming up to a big race, which means the risk-reward is there to try for the upset, so play her in all the spots, and in the Pk5 as well, since anyone on a budget will be singling 'Night, which means a win by the pick would knock out all of the budget players and really blow up the sequence.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Youngboy Won a race with better at Delta before getting DQ'ed, so this drop makes him an obvious player off a useful try with better last out.
#10 Brave One Fell short at 8/5 last time out, but his baseline effort keeps him right in the mix with the top choice here.
#6 Go West Indy Doesn't seem like a super serious threat on top, but he might be useful in the underneath spot here at a square price.
Race Summary Youngboy's best stuff would get the job done with these, and he has never been in this easy in his career.
Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Youwonderwhyidrink Has not shown much in two starts so far, but they have both come with better groups than he's going to find today. Chance off the layoff.
#5 Texas Witt Tough to back this guy in his 20th lifetime start, but he owns several running lines that would make short work of this bunch -- it's just a matter of which guy shows up today.
#3 Wild Paint Two-back run would probably do the job here, but he may be a bit overbet in this spot where he isn't really any better than the rest.
Race Summary Youwonderwhyidrink has only had two starts with better, and many in this bunch have had more than their share of chances (This is start number 40 for #9 Captain Amante at 9/2 on the ML).
Fonner Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 For the Hustle Has been in really good form for a few starts now, and the local figures he's earning stack up with the best in here. 10/1?
#9 Awesome Emmit Good try last out off the bench, and if he can step forward in this second try off the layoff, he can be competitive in a race he ran second in at 24/1 last year.
#6 Ourbestfriend D L ML favorite got rocked in those last two Oaklawn races, but those were with horses that are nothing like what he's going to face here. Big chance.
Race Summary For the Hustle owns the best last-out BRIS speed figure and has now run two really good races over the local footing. Can't imagine there's a way he offer 10/1 at post time, but he's intriguing still at something closer to half that.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Cal-Expo - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 HI HO’S LITTLE REV Post switch, race shape, driver’s choice makes him today’s Best Bet.
#7 PANEDICTINE Discount latest, last won at this level, needs some pace flow.
#8 BECKYS DREAMBOAT Even-paced in 1:53.3, gets Plano, early position the key.
Race Summary Hi Ho’s Little Rev, parked by the winner and pocket-sitting favorite through a :57 middle half, should go a long way from up close with favorable post switch. He was driver’s choice on a triple call, so play 1-5, 1-6 and 1-8 exactas.
Cal-Expo - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 VILLA FOR RENT Improved try in latest as he looks to get back on the winning track.
#3 BUDGIE SMUGGLER Tipped 3-wide for drive, wrapped up late as top pair separated from field.
#5 CENALTA EXPRESS Second in 3-horse qualifier, met short-priced winners last summer.
Race Summary Villa For Rent raced first-over through solid middle fractions set by the 3-to-5 winner. He won five times last year, draws the rail and offers fair betting value. Play a 1-3-5 exacta box.
Cal-Expo - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 FLY AWAY Shuffled as pace slowed, rallied widest, can turn tables.
#4 ETHAN HANOVER Classy 11yo failed to sustain eye-catching move in latest.
#5 WHO DAT LOVE Got away easy on front end in repeat victory at this level two back.
Race Summary Fly Away raced fifth through single-file, opening half mile, lacked room on the turn and swung 5-wide in the stretch to close with a rush for second. He won’t get much pace in a short field but he’s good enough to overcome it with a clean trip. Play 6-ALL exacta.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 2 Flash Forcast Tried turf and got no positive results in his last two and returns to two turns on dirt; has a good closing move and can turn around his form here.
#1 Sonic Jet Gave way in a strong allowance at Oaklawn and takes a big dip here; his races from Remington last fall would put him in the hunt in this one.
#3 Kirk of Diamonds Ended 2019 with a win for $10,000 at Remington is back up to the allowance ranks; can get a piece of this.
Race Summary Flash Forcast didn't care for grass and should be able to rev up for a big rally vs. these.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Meeka Won three of her last four at Hawthorne and looks like the speed of the speed; under good hands with Hernandez.
#4 Fool's Paradise Could benefit from a speed duel and could be just off the pace; fits well with these.
@#6 Baydar Has some good two-turn races to her credit in New Mexico and Iowa and can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary Meeka won some good sprints last year and can get on the front end here; has the class to stretch out.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Dak Da Man Can benefit from a lively pace in front of him and is capable of running them down in the stretch; has been in tougher spots.
#2 Sedaris Won the main track at Remington four back and most recently closed ground vs. open company at Sam Houston; can be close up in this one.
#5 Big Game Hunter Didn't fire vs. solid starter allowance foes last time and should benefit from being back with the state-breds.
Race Summary Dak Da Man has the best closing move in her and can adjust accordingly to the pace; has the class to win this one.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 84
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 115 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. TEXAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 10 MO GEE 6/1
# 7 MORHAWK 5/2
# 12 GILES 20/1
MO GEE has a very good shot to take this race. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 83 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most competitive in this group. He has a good opportunity for this event as conditioner, Diodoro, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. This racer is highly ranked this group of horses in earnings per start a
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Sam Houston - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 67
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#4 RIKKI'S GIFT (ML=8/1)
#2 SUSIE DERKINS (ML=4/1)
#6 DIAMOND DIVA (ML=15/1)
RIKKI'S GIFT - Ran in the last race against a better field at Sam Houston. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. SUSIE DERKINS - Diodoro tried her against the males last time out. This should be a good spot. She has the highest earnings per race. Check out this thoroughbred. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (48-53-61) make this thoroughbred a strong contender. DIAMOND DIVA - This rider and handler's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TRISTAN'S GOLD (ML=2/1), #1 FRUHL'N AROUND (ML=5/2), #7 SALUTARY (ML=7/2),
TRISTAN'S GOLD - Didn't make up ground at all on March 11th. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds. Tough to wager on any horse like this that didn't finish in the money after the long turnout and comes right back. Doubtful that the speed fig she registered on March 11th will hold up in this clash. FRUHL'N AROUND - No wager value on this participant at the likely odds of 5/2. SALUTARY - This less than sharp equine ran a disappointing speed figure last time around the track. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 RIKKI'S GIFT to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7040 Class Rating: 41
FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 10 SWEET COWGIRL 4/1
# 9 G G HOLIDAY 5/2
# 7 MISS ELISE 8/1
SWEET COWGIRL is the top wager in this race. Haar will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this race. The average Equibase class figure of 29 makes this horse tough to beat. G G HOLIDAY - Looks strong against this field and will probably be one of the early speedsters. MISS ELISE - In this field, this entrant is highly ranked earnings per start in dirt sprint races.
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