Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 3/23/20
Gjelstad and Norheim
Australian A-League
The model is leaning Under 3 goals, but its much stronger play is on the money line.
Newcastle Jets v. Melbourne City FC (4:30 a.m. ET)
Money line: Draw +210
Against the spread: At +0, back Melbourne City FC.
Total goals: Under 3
Likely score: Newcastle Jets 1, Melbourne City FC 1
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Jonathon Kinchen
Will Rogers Downs in Claremore, Okla
Late Pick 4 begins with Race 6 at 4:45 p.m. ET and goes through Race 9
Will Rogers Downs 6th
1 Nurse List (5-2) -- Did not do much running as a 2-year-old but came back at Delta Downs in a $20,000 maiden and ran a number that would handle this group with ease. The only concern is the rail, but it's minor.
3 D R C's Arm Candy (2-1) -- You never want to see a maiden with a lot of experience, but this is not a very tough field. This one was 10-1 at Oaklawn Park and now gets a bit of class relief. Early speed is key in these lower level races. He's in the barn of a high-percentage trainer, Scott Young.
4 Tomey's Lexus (3-1) -- Exits the same race as D R C's Arm Candy in which this one was 6-1. She also possesses some speed and should appreciate getting off the inside and being drawn outside of D R C's Arm Candy.
A: 1,3
B: 4
Will Rogers Downs 7th
3 Magnitude Ten (3-1) -- The layoff is a bit of a concern, but the back-to-back-to-back three-furlong works are a little curious. Either she is fit and doesn't need much work or the connections want to make her less attractive as a claim. I'm going to use her.
4 Landry Kyle (7-2) -- This one is a simple inclusion. She has three races as a 2-year-old that can win this race; now she is 3. Imagine a high school sprinter running a 10 seconds flat in the 100 in high school and runs faster as he gets older and more physically mature. That's the same principle here.
6 Posse Gone Wild (8-1) -- She was 56-1 in her last start, but that was facing good horses. Hopefully that race didn't discourage her. Her price makes her worth including.
9 Long Ride Home (4-1) -- Was previously with Steve Asmussen, and he couldn't get her near the winner's circle in two races where she was 5-1 and 5-2. She might just not be any good but is worth including as a B horse.
A: 3,4,6
B: 9
Will Rogers Downs 8th
2 Sweet Mary M (8-5) -- She was involved in a wicked fast pace in her first start as a 3-year-old. That race fell apart, and she has a right to move forward off that race and get brave on the front end with likely more comfortable fractions.
3 Shanghai Sally (4-1) -- Ignore the turf route. Now she is back to sprinting on the dirt. Her last two dirt sprints put her right there.
4 Eutychia (3-1) -- She can win but has to overcome the layoff. She has run three times off a layoff and has never won. Her trainer is 10-for-98 in his career with horses off layoffs.
6 Gp's Amazing Grace (15-1) -- Even though trainer Patrick Swan is a low-percentage trainer, her last race as a 2-year-old suggests that she might have some ability. She's worth including as a B based on the price.
A: 2,3
B: 4,6
Will Rogers Downs 9th
7 Hard Story (5-2) -- Ships in from Delta Downs for trainer Robertino Diodoro. He is putting up video-game numbers at Will Rogers Downs (winning at 71 percent in seven starts) and having a great year besides that (winning at 26 percent in 310 starts). This one isn't bulletproof but deserves to be the favorite.
8 Lucky Pete (4-1) -- I'm hesitant to use this one as an A choice, but I don't quite trust Hard Story enough to use him as a lone A. Lucky Pete has some figures from last year that fit. He has also won off a layoff.
A: 7,8
Wagers
All-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 1,3 with 3,4,6 with 2,3 with 7,8 ($48)
Three-A, one-B tickets
$1 Pick 4: 4 with 3,4,6 with 2,3 with 7,8 ($12)
$1 Pick 4: 1,3 with 9 with 2,3 with 7,8 ($8)
$1 Pick 4: 1,3 with 3,4,6 with 4,6 with 7,8 ($24)
Two-A, two-B tickets
$.50 Pick 4: 4 with 9 with 2,3 with 7,8 ($2)
$.50 Pick 4: 4 with 3,4,6 with 4,6 with 7,8 ($6)
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3 with 9 with 4,6 with 7,8 ($4)
Total wager: $104
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Akota Girl Stiff class dropper has been facing tons better but holding her own, can settle early in what looks like a speedy race, and will offer value too; upset special.
#10 Intoxicating Kiss Logical contender was a closing 3rd off the long layoff, should be better prepared this time, and is another who like the race flow as well; major player.
#7 Feels Right Pace presser was a good 3rd off the claim at the level last time, gets some help with this outside draw, and figures to be ignored on the board; worth a look.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the 6, most notably the drop in class and her running style, and she may be in the 5-1 range too, which would be plenty of value on a miss who fits like a glove here, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the Pk5 as well, since she looks poised for a big run in a race there for the taking.
Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Scotia Queen Class riser really woke up on the trainer change last time, and while the MSW ranks are always tougher, this is a very suspect group; love her chances here.
#5 Pretty Rich Pace presser wasn't far behind the pick last time and did well to draw outside of her in this spot, though she was tiring badly late in that one; second-best.
#1 Super Miss B Haven Stretch runner was 5th to the top pair last time, so a win seems a reach, but if the pace gets too heated she'll be closing in the lane; comes along for a share.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML on the pick isn't happening, as she looks more like 8-5 or so off her last, especially since there are no MSW runners in here anyway, so if you can get anywhere near 2-1 make an aggressive win of place bet, though you can get some guaranteed value by singling her to kick off the Pk4, as a repeat of her last is beating this suspect field.
Fonner Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 Thunderupalley Class dropper chased then was an even 4th in his return off the break, should like this reduced level, drew well, and should improve off that very encouraging return; look out.
#3 Drama Coach Improving sort was 4th behind the chalk last time, has a stalking gear that will come in handy in this speedy race, and makes the third start of his form cycle too; do not ignore.
#9 G Man Is In Town Aforementioned favorite did well to draw outside the speed and that 2nd last time makes him a big threat here, but chasing/dueling and holding late won't be easy; trying to beat.
Race Summary The pace here says this might fall apart in the lane, and the 7 should be able to sit off it and make a run of the far turn, so on the drop, at a decent price, he's worth a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the Pk5 as well, since a win in this deep field would knock out plenty of tickets right off the bat.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Flooded Ran against better last fall at Remington Park and lands in a good spot for his return; has good works to his credit and looks ready.
#4 Race the Moon Was an easy winner the last time he was at this level; was outrun in his last three but should welcome the class drop.
#5 Tackson Ended 2019 with two 2nds and likely will make a run late in the game; serious player.
Race Summary Flooded has shown some pick-me-up in the morning hours and looks on his toes for his return to the races; capable of winning from off the shelf.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Dance Doctor Closed for 3rd in an allowance race at Fonner and was in open allowance races at Remington last fall; has defeated much better and fits well here.
#7 Strong Side Was an easy winner in a claiming race at Delta and has a good closing punch; clearly a contender.
#1 Man U Off since May and likely will show his usual speed in his 1st one back; capable of a big effort.
Race Summary Dance Doctor came on well in his 1st of the year and has good chance to improve in his return; has the class to prevail.
Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Sweet Mary M Has excellent speed and should be about to carve out moderate fractions; can dig in and finish the job.
#1 Billie G Steps up in class for her 1st of the year and brings her a good closing move; has won over the strip.
#4 Eutychia Has the class to be a strong factor; generally likes to run longer distance but can probably made a decent late run here.
Race Summary Sweet Mary M has a big advantage in early speed while other top contenders are deep closers; can back up the pace in this one.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4500 Class Rating: 68
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 7 ROI BELENCIAGA 6/1
# 6 FRIEND OF DUBAI 6/1
# 4 PERFECT LINE 7/2
ROI BELENCIAGA has a decent shot to take this race. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 60 speed rating which is one of the top in this group. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 73 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing. Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race. FRIEND OF DUBAI - Has quite good speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this contest. A nice return on investment of +10 with this jockey and conditioner combo. PERFECT LINE - Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (65 average) at today's distance and surface lately. His earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at him.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,100 Class Rating: 70
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#8 ETHEL EILEEN (ML=10/1)
#9 COUNTRY CADEN (ML=8/1)
#4 CARABLANCA'S DANCE (ML=20/1)
#6 STURN DONNA (ML=20/1)
ETHEL EILEEN - The ROI when Cardoso and Zielinski team up is tremendous. Although it's been awhile, this filly last won at this same class and distance. I think she could run back to that old form today. I have to figure that this contest's shorter trip should help this filly. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in her last race around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. You may want to discount that showing. COUNTRY CADEN - All systems look good for this filly. Last morning work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Possibly a peak effort for this filly today. Been getting closer with each recent start. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. This filly is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on Mar 3rd, finishing first. CARABLANCA'S DANCE - Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out. That contest had a class figure of 78 and she is moving down in this field. A certain contender. STURN DONNA - You have to consider the solid works of late. Don't throw this one out due to her last clash at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she ran sixth on a track listed as good. Expect better today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KITTEN'S PEEBLES (ML=5/2), #7 TO HONOR AND RUN (ML=3/1), #2 GEMAGILITY (ML=9/2),
KITTEN'S PEEBLES - This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually get the job done. Leave out of the top spot. TO HONOR AND RUN - Hard to bet this racer the way she ran irregularly last out. Doubtful that the fig she garnered on March 4th will hold up in this race. GEMAGILITY - Didn't close ground at any point on Mar 6th. Hard to wager on this time at the expected odds.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 ETHEL EILEEN to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9900 Class Rating: 77
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 23, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 10 IMA SOONERS FAN 6/1
# 1 FLOODED 3/1
# 5 TACKSON 7/2
IMA SOONERS FAN is the strongest bet in this race. Some formidable figures have been posted by this trainer's starters running at this distance and surface. Put up a very good speed rating last time out. FLOODED - Ran a strong last race. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a solid choice. TACKSON - Posted a quite good speed rating last time out. This conditioner has done admirably as of late with entries racing at this distance and surface.
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