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Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 3/22/20 1 week 5 days ago #520385

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 3/22/20
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Mike Money McClure

AUSTRALIAN RULES FOOTBALL

Sunday, March 22 @ 12:21 AM - Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions - Pick: Hawks +3.5

Sunday, March 22 @ 3:21 AM - West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons - Pick: Melbourne Demons +18.5
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Gjelstad and Norheim

Leaning Over 2.5 goals in Belshina vs. Minsk, but its much stronger play is on the money line.

Belshina v. Minsk (9 a.m. ET)

Money line: Minsk +125

Against the spread: At -0.50, back Minsk.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Minsk 2, Belshina 1
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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for 3/22/20

March 22, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, March 22, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video

Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Nardini; 10-Lofty

Forecast: Lofty has found her niche as a turf sprinter. After crushing a maiden state-bred field with a big speed figure two races back, she verified the strength of that performance by coming back to win for fun again last month vs. an overmatched optional claiming field while earning a stakes-quality number. A repeat of either one of these two races will be good enough to handle this first-level Cal-bred field, her extreme outside draw notwithstanding. As a back-up you should probably consider Nardini, a lightly-raced and improving daughter of Acclamation trying grass for the first time. She’s nowhere near as fast on numbers as Lofty but if the turf moves her up – as we suspect it will – the A. Mathis-trained filly could make a run for it.
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RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Tiz Wonderfully; 4-Majestic Diva; 6-Indypendent Deputy

Forecast: This race has a few question marks and no real value to be found, so we’ll sit it while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Tiz Wonderfully isn’t particularly fast on numbers but she’s genuine and consistent and on pure form as good as any. Majestic Diva won by a pole when competing for this $12,500 price and earning a career top speed figure two runs back but then bounced to the moon in her next outing, finishing last of seven with her Beyer speed figure dropping 33 points. Which version will show up today? Indypendent Deputy returns to her claim level in her second start off a layoff and the W. Spawr-trained veteran mare should greatly appreciate the softer assignment and not really mind the return to the main track (she’s a three-time winner on dirt). She does her best work from off the pace and should be heard from late.
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RACE 3: Post 1:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden Sparkle; 6-Hammering Lemon

Forecast: Hammering Lemon has worked pretty well since his non-threatening debut earlier this month and may be better than shown. The Square Eddie colt was off slowly and never got untracked on grass, but today adds blinkers, switches to dirt, lands the cozy outside post and should be able to show his best stuff in a modest state-bred extended sprint. Golden Sparkle has trained okay in the morning for J. Cassidy and probably is worth tossing in at least as a backup. Based on his workouts, he’ll be running on late. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics; you may feel the need to spread a bit deeper.
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RACE 4: Post 2:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jaxson’s Goldie; 6-Neutrino; 8-Palaleo

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive maiden claiming turf sprint that has a few possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Jaxon’s Goldie, first off the claim for R. Hess, Jr., is raised from $30,000 to $50,000 in a sign of confidence and this shortened grass trip might suite him very well. The son of Goldencents has only one way to go from the rail – on the lead – and if he breaks cleanly he could take some catching. Palaleo, away for more than year, returns with F. Prat in the saddle so we’re assuming he’s fit and ready. The J. Bonde-trained gelding is bred for grass (Noble Mission) and finally gets a chance to show what he can do after being forced to compete in two off-the-turf events before being stopped on. Neutrino has flashed some ability in the morning for J. Sadler so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as well. He was entered yesterday in a straight maiden turf sprint but failed to draw in from the also-eligible list, so we’d have to think he’ll fit in this league.
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RACE 5: Post 2:39 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Conquest Cobra; 2-Fabozzi

Forecast: Fabozzi has been close without being able to seal the deal lately but his numbers are strong so maybe he’s due for some luck. Winless in the last two years but with the proper style for this extended sprint distance, the M. Glatt-trained gelding retains A. Cedillo, shortens up, and should have every chance to produce the last run. Conquest Cobra, third in the same race Fabozzi just finished second in, clearly is the one to fear most. A two-time winner at seven furlongs, the Pioneerof the Nile gelding retains F. Prat and should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that projects to have soft early fractions. These two are difficult to separate; we’ll operate under the assumption that the winner will be one or the other but pass the race.
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RACE 6: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-Shines Her Light; 8-Teachers Big Dream; 10-Mind Out

Forecast: Here’s another tough and competitive race, this one over a mile on grass for entry-level allowance 3-year-old fillies. Mind Out has plenty of talent and should make an excellent 3-year-old for S. Callaghan. The daughter of Tapit walked out of the gate but still got up and won her debut sprinting on grass last summer and then finished a solid third in the Surfer Girl Stakes over this course and distance during the fall meeting while appearing a bit green. She returns with blinkers on, retains F. Prat, and looks the most dangerous of the closers, so we’ll put her on top. Teachers Big Dream is lightly-raced, improving, continues to impress in the a.m., and just won over this course and distance with career top speed figure. She loses U. Rispoli (who understandably opts for Shines Her Light) but picks up one of this barn’s go-to riders, E. Maldonado. We suspect she’s better than her morning line of 10-1. Shines Her Light won her U. S. debut sprinting on grass in good style and should be tough on the raise. The stretch out to a mile won’t bother her in the least; she finished second of 20 at this distance in a handicap in Ireland last summer.
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RACE 7: Post 3:39 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dano’s Dream; 3-I Can Do This; 5-Jamming Eddy

Forecast: I Can Do This is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and generally runs well at this flat mile trip. He has a good stalking style and is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedeno so in a wide open affair we’ll put him on top. Dano’s Dream, second in two photo finishes in his last pair up north, tries his luck on conventional dirt after vanning down from Golden Gate Fields and if he can duplicate his all-weather speed figures over the Santa Anita main track he could be hard to beat. However, his career record on dirt – 5-0-0-0 – hardly inspires. He picks up U. Rispoli, so there’s that. Jamming Eddy is pretty much in the same boat – decent form on grass, not so hot on dirt – but his numbers are gradually rising so maybe he’s a better type now. The Square Eddie gelding probably is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late.
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RACE 8: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Just Grazed Me; 5-Tigre Di Slugo

Forecast: Let’s go for a price in this grass grab bag sprint stakes for state-bred older runners. Tigre Di Slugo will be making his first start on the sod but he’s a progressive sort with a powerful late kick and with another forward move could easily outrun his 12-1 morning line odds and maybe do more than just that. F. Prat knows him well, stays aboard, and should have this lightly-raced son of Smiling Tiger within range and ready to pounce from the quarter pole home. Just Grazed Me tackles the boys today after missing without an apparent excuse at 50 cents on the dollar in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint over this course and distance in January. She may have a lost a half step, but there’s no doubting her class, so you have to use her. There are several other legitimate contenders in the field, but we’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Tigre Di Slugo.
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RACE 9: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Indy Jones; 5-Cross Town

Forecast: The finale is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler with nothing to trust. Anything goes. Cross Town just broke his maiden with an okay number, retains F. Prat, and should get the patient ride that apparently he requires. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, and probably is worth that price if you can get it. Indy Jones, in the frame in his last pair at this level, switches to A. Cedillo and seems likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance from there. We’ll sink or swim with just these two in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.
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Al Cimaglia: March 22-Saratoga Harness Analysis

March 22, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Saratoga Harness has a 13-race card set to roll at noon EST and after today's program racing will be suspended. The feature comes in Race 11 an Open Handicap Trot, plus there is an Early and Late Daily Double on the card.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

6-Cool Jack (4-1)-Leaning towards the 3rd morning line chalk who comes off a nice win in 4th start of the year. There isn't much gate speed inside so Cushing should get a good early seat and can put Jack into striking range.

Race 2

2-Wicked Nick (4-1)-Makes 3rd start of 2020 and showed improvement last week. Usually is in the mix at this level and can make the most of an inside post draw.
5-Weekend Wit Bigd (5/2)-Has won over 25% of starts at Stga and has been in the hunt. Fell victim to a slower pace in last from the 7-hole. May be able to get a good early seat and this race could set-up for a nice brush to roll by down the lane.
7-Jeter's Way (6-1)-Beckwith returns and expecting an aggressive steer. Was used hard in last from the 7-hole to get on the engine and almost lasted. Taking a swing and can pop at a nice price to pick-up 1st picture of the year.

Early Daily Double

$5 Double-6/2,5,7
Total Bet=$15

Race 11-Open Handicap Trot-Purse $16,050

4-Mister Muscle (8/5)-Program favorite looks the part and has had success versus Open company. Has the gate speed to get the lead and not look back. A major threat and probably an odds-on choice.
5-Mr Cool Seaeyre N (9/2)-Usually doesn't seal the deal at this level but will use and this field isn't very deep. Could get the 2-hole and follow #4 around the oval. 8-year-old knows how to win and could trip out if finds a pocket ride.
6-Justice Jet (8-1)-Here's another veteran and Jet has put over $600k in the bank. If pace is hot Gray may put in striking range and add some juice to the exacta.

$12 Exacta 4/5, $5 Exacta 5/4, $5 Exacta 4/6
Total Bet=$22

Race 12

2-Brad's Buddy (8/5)-Will likely go off as the odds-on chalk again and unless it's an off night it should be the 4th straight picture.

Race 13

1-All That Dazzle (4-1)-Looking for a different version of this mare than last 2 starts which were from the 7 and 8 post. Cross should keep her near the top of the stack and be in the hunt at the wire.
5-Kennel Buddy (6-1)-Even effort in 1st start since 11-26. Seldom wins but others are no different. Did keep trotting in a needed start in a race with a quicker fractions and should be a good price.

Late Daily Double

$10 Double 2/1,5
Total Bet=$20
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Tizfit Class dropper has been showing some tactical speed of late while meeting much better, meets a paceless crew, and should offer some value as well; can surprise.
#5 Meritocracy Outside stalker is another who has been facing much better, and with little pace this will turn into a nice attack post, which will only help her chances; the gal to beat.
#2 Tapitha Bonita Dicey ML favorite didn't fire for 8k off the Miyadi claim and is now in for 4k, after being plucked for 25k two-back, which means she's not in a good place; no thanks.
Race Summary The price and the race flow both say the 1 will have a big chance here, and with a very vulnerable ML favorite her appeal only goes up that much more, so play her in all the slots, and to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win in the $12 range would knock many tickets out right off the bat.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Gotham Desire Stalker has been running well against a few of these in her last two, and note she's had some trouble in both of those runs as well, and today she caches a field loaded with early speed, and will be a square price too; love her chances here.
#4 Mucho Armor Dangerous newcomer was routing when last seen in August and has never been on synthetic, but Wright is 24% off this kind of layoff, she has some huge sprint wins, and figures to sit just off the speed and get first run on the pick; very scary.
#3 Coco Bee ML favorite and pace presser did well to draw outside the two inside speeds, and she too had plenty of trouble in her last, but pressing/dueling early, kicking clear, and then holding off the pick doesn't seem like a path to success; trying to beat.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will only help the chances of the 6, while potentially hurting those of the 3, so play the former in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since a win at 4-1 or so in a six-horse field will play a lot longer in both sequences.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Creative Romance Stalker just missed to a few here in a blanket finish last time, should be sitting off what looks like an aggressive and contested pace, and may get overlooked as well; upset special.
#4 Sunblessed Sharp MSW winner is another who will like the pace, and she looks to have finally put it all together, though facing winners is never easy, and she'll be overbet too; second-best.
#6 Rose Princess Stretch runner was a close 4th behind the pick last time, and she's another who will like the flow better today, so while a win may be a reach, she could spice up your exotics; using.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 2, and the race flow will be a lot better than it was last time as well, which could be enough to turn the tables, and she has only a head to make up on the (unmentioned) 5 and 1 anyway, so give her a look in all the slots, and the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she could completely fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in spicing up both sequences.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 3/22/20 1 week 5 days ago #520388

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#10 Lofty Won't be any kind of price, but she looks like a really logical single to kick off the Pick-5. She has turned into a monster since trying turf sprints and adding blinkers, and she draws well to avoid trouble from the outside.
#2 Nardini Tactical type makes her turf debut here off a couple of decent runs on the main at Golden Gate, but she's going to need to step up her game in meaningful way if she's going to win this.
#8 Rosey Sky Speed probably gives it up late, but her last two tries have produced the kinds of lines that might keep her in the frame for a small piecer.
Race Summary Lofty should be very tough after a couple of open-length scores at this trip since adding blinkers, and she might be a nice one.

Santa Anita - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Arch Ability Got hammered by a better group last time out, but his two-back run with similar would keep him in the mix here.
#4 Shanghai Curly Showed a bit of chasing pace in the debut before flattening out, but he can do better this time around with that race under his belt.
#1 Jaxon's Goldie Likely to show some pace from the inside, but there is some other speed stacked up outside of her that might lead to a tricky trip.
Race Summary Arch Ability has a right to bounce back after being in too deep last time out, and his two-back run on the main track stacks up well here -- turf is the question.

Santa Anita - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Shines Her Light Finished up nicely to score going short last time out, and that should set her up for this two-turn trip today. Would be appealing at the 5/1 ML price.
#10 Mind Out Looks like the clear one to beat, but the question will be how much she has (or has not) progressed into her 3yo season.
#9 Storie Blue Was no match for Donna Veloce last out, but being by sire Empire Maker, there's a chance she'll take nicely to the turf, and her main-track figures are competitive here.
Race Summary Shines Her Light has a right to be tough. She's already proven at a mile overseas, and her stateside debut was impressive enough to wonder if there's even more there.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 3/22/20 1 week 5 days ago #520389

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Saratoga Harness - Race #2
Picks Notes
#4 I M FISHIN Mare gets class break, needs some pace flow, knows how to win.
#5 WEEKEND WIT BIGD Disappointed as the favorite but can’t be discounted off prior lines.
#1 AWOL HANOVER Started from second tier, provided cover for winner after race fave broke stride.
Race Summary I M Fishin missed a week sick, but she gets class relief and could sit dream trip if two outside runners gun for early position. She rallied into a slow pace to finish second the last time she tested this level. Play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Saratoga Harness - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 CHIP WALTHER Starts fresh, good fit at this level, paced evenly in qualifier.
#5 TUAPEKA TRICK N Finished with a surge between runners at this level, use in gimmicks.
#1 GIVENUPDREAMING Rallied for second at notch below, moves outside in.
Race Summary Chip Walther needed a break after a 41-race season at age 5. If he’s ready, he should factor off his prior start at Saratoga, when he passed the pace-setting favorite but couldn’t hold off the longshot winner in the slop. Play 2-1 and 2-5 exactas.

Saratoga Harness - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 STONE IN LOVE Overcame second-tier starting spot with flying colors, take right back.
#2 POP I Packs late kick, gets favorable post switch, price attached.
#4 NAMJE Nailed 3-1 pace controller two back, drew away from field in latest.
Race Summary Stone In Love, held up behind a slow-starting rail-sitter, came out near the half, bid 3-wide on the final turn and surged past the 9-to-5 pace setter to repeat. She draws the rail today and is today’s Best Bet to beat the boys for her third win in a row.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Holy Muchacho Goes over to the turf for the first time after an easy win on the main track; should be able to handle the grass.
#8 King of Ranch Has been in good form over his last three and just missed at this level last time out; ran an interesting race as he was second, 15 lengths behind the leader after three quarters and made a strong run.
#6 Makabim Was a non-threatening 2nd last time and has been on the board in five of his last seen; fits with these.
Race Summary Holy Muchacho has shown a strong kick on occasion and should be able to make a noticeable run late in what is his initial turf try.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Addison Ran on for 2nd last time out and is back to turf after a couple of attempts in Kentucky last summer; should get a good trip here.
#1 Rising Bella Was an easy winner and was claimed two back; was too late in a stakes race but fits very well in this spot.
#6 Memphis Showboat Was up in time in her 2nd race and looks ready to step up against better; can get a piece of this.
Race Summary Addison was runner-up on the dirt and is back to the grass, where she will show some late run vs. this group.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 On the Town Comes out of a race that had fast fractions and likely will be able to get to the lead in this one; a threat to take them the distance.
#5 Dyna Passer Has the class as she's been in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races; was too late in her bid in her 1st one here and should like the distance of this one.
#3 With Herself Usually makes up some ground and gets her 1st attempt going 1.5 miles; could be rolling late.
Race Summary On the Town has the advantage of being able to get to the lead and dictate the fractions; can run all day out front.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 3/22/20 1 week 5 days ago #520392

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

03/22/20, TAM, Race 5, 2.19 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 CLAIMING. Purse $12,500.
Claiming Price $16,000 (Races where entered for $12,500 or less not considered) (Condition Eligibility). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 5-6-7) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 5-6-7-8) - Super High 5
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 3 Segismundo 9/2 Centeno D Avila Juan Carlos JF 36.13 1.23/$1
097.36 6 The Kahn 6-1 Camacho S Bennett Gerald S. T 35.64 1.24/$1
097.22 2 A Girls Bestfriend 3-1 Mawing L Roberson Don S 32.11 1.21/$1
096.26 7 Dollar Blue 5/2 Castanon J L Correas. IV Ignacio EWC 35.64 1.24/$1
095.99 4 Fast Flying Fred 10-1 Garcia J A Tsirigotis. Jr. James L 32.11 1.21/$1
095.89 1 Snicker Kicker 5-1 Suarez A Manning Dennis J. 32.11 1.21/$1
095.25 9 Charlies a Charmer 12-1 Mendez K Machado Antonio 35.64 1.24/$1
095.11 8 Attack Zone 15-1 Allen M Fennessy John 32.11 1.21/$1
095.00 5 Fafa Fooey 30-1 Martinez W Simms John 32.11 1.21/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 35.29, ROI 0.96/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 3 Segismundo 9/2 Centeno D Avila Juan Carlos JF 46.81 1.05/$1
096.94 9 Charlies a Charmer 12-1 Mendez K Machado Antonio E 40.48 1.13/$1
096.68 1 Snicker Kicker 5-1 Suarez A Manning Dennis J. 100.00 2.40/$1
096.60 2 A Girls Bestfriend 3-1 Mawing L Roberson Don S 40.48 1.13/$1
095.96 7 Dollar Blue 5/2 Castanon J L Correas. IV Ignacio WC 40.48 1.13/$1
095.21 4 Fast Flying Fred 10-1 Garcia J A Tsirigotis. Jr. James L 40.48 1.13/$1
095.02 6 The Kahn 6-1 Camacho S Bennett Gerald S. T 40.48 1.13/$1
094.40 8 Attack Zone 15-1 Allen M Fennessy John 100.00 2.40/$1
093.37 5 Fafa Fooey 30-1 Martinez W Simms John 100.00 2.40/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.59, ROI 0.63/$1
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $57000 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $80,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 TEACHERS BIG DREAM 10/1

# 5 PARKOUR 6/1

# 10 MIND OUT 7/2

TEACHERS BIG DREAM is my choice and could score at a price in here. PARKOUR - She has to be given consideration given the solid speed numbers. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Mandella running at this distance are the strongest in this group. MIND OUT - Could provide positive dividends based on quite good recent speed figures with an average of 90. Is a strong contender based on numbers put up recently under today's conditions.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 1:53pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 WORTHY TURK (ML=9/5)


WORTHY TURK - You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 93, which is the highest most recent race speed figure of this group. This jock and handler have a high win pct together. This equine tops my list of strong contenders. Three solid efforts leading into this event can prove it to you.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LITTLEBITAMEDAL (ML=2/1), #4 VIOLENT BEHAVIOR (ML=5/2), #1 EMERALD MAGIC (ML=5/1),

LITTLEBITAMEDAL - In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in sprint races recently. This mount just hasn't looked sharp lately. VIOLENT BEHAVIOR - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. EMERALD MAGIC - Doubtful that the speed fig he earned on February 23rd will be good enough in this clash.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 WORTHY TURK to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 3/22/20 1 week 5 days ago #520393

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $11400 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SMOKE EM ALL SIS 3/1

# 5 VF FIRST BRAVE STAN 4/1

# 2 JM LADY LUCK 6/1

SMOKE EM ALL SIS has a very good shot to take this race. Has run very well when racing a short race. With a solid jockey who has won at a very good 24 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. Klaiber has an excellent ROI over the past month (+16) which should help risk takers with this pick. VF FIRST BRAVE STAN - Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the means to a major improvement. JM LADY LUCK - Must be given a shot here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Looks respectable to be on the front end at the first call.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE

03/22/20, OP, Race 8, 4.51 CT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $61,000.
Claiming Price $80,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 5 Tumbling Sky 7/2 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. FEC 34.17 1.30/$1
097.98 11 Marvin 3-1 Cohen D Robertson McLean S 33.33 1.12/$1
096.42 2 Liam's Pride 4-1 Garcia M O'Neill Doug F. 33.33 1.12/$1
095.74 8 Ancient Warrior 8-1 Baze T Hollendorfer Jerry L 34.17 1.30/$1
095.73 10 Happy Hour Cowboy 10-1 Mojica O Robertson McLean J 33.33 1.12/$1
095.02 1 Naughty Alfred 8-1 De La Cruz F Garcia Genaro 34.17 1.30/$1
094.75 7 No Shirt No Shoes 12-1 Birzer A Anderson Doug L. 34.17 1.30/$1
094.54 4 Ranaan 12-1 Elliott S Asmussen Steven M. W 34.17 1.30/$1
094.05 9 Big Returns 15-1 Vazquez R A O'Neill Doug F. 34.17 1.30/$1
092.60 3 Nucky 15-1 Bridgmohan J V Miller Peter 34.17 1.30/$1
091.96 6 Creekmore 20-1 Talamo J Moquett Ron 34.17 1.30/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.43, ROI 1.13/$1
__________________

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 LADY LOVE (ML=4/1)
#4 FLASHY PATCH (ML=7/2)


LADY LOVE - The jockey and conditioner combination have a lucrative ROI when they combine forces. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the power to make her presence felt. Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this thoroughbred at the top of my list of contenders in this race. Went a route in a $16,000 Claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs last time around the track from an outside post position. Moving to the inside at a similar distance should benefit this mare. FLASHY PATCH - She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. A horse coming back this soon after a strong race is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SCARLET BOW (ML=8/5), #3 BLAZING BROOKE (ML=3/1), #6 MI CUAIMA (ML=5/1),

SCARLET BOW - This favorite ran on Feb 15th and hasn't had a morning drill since. BLAZING BROOKE - Latest speed figure of 74 may not be true since it was on an off track. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine. MI CUAIMA - Hasn't been coming close at all of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 LADY LOVE on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
__________________

Bob Weir


Tampa Bay Downs' Pick 4 begins at 2:19 p.m. ET on Sunday with Race 5 and goes through Race 8

Tampa Bay 5th
2 A Girls Bestfriend (3-1) has returned from a six-month break to post two turf races that are good enough to win. His last race was washed off the turf, so I will forgive that. He looks like a major player.

7 Dollar Blue (5-2) has not raced since October when essentially being eased. The gelding drops off the layoff and is an obvious player assuming whatever happened in October has been dealt with.

4 Fast Flying Fred (10-1) is making his third start after an extended layoff. He improved last time switching to turf and could be ready to fire his best race yet.

A: 2,4,7


Tampa Bay 6th
1 Meilleur (5-2) has a clear pace advantage and is a threat to wire the field.

10 One Fine Ride (3-1) ranks second on TimeformUS early pace figures to Meilleur. Seven-year-old gelding could sit a nice stalking trip. Most likely winner after Meilleur.

If the top two engage up front and the race falls apart, the backup ticket will include 3 Nauti Boy (6-1), a turf horse trying dirt; 6 Secret Life Style (7-2), who's stretching out off solid sprint; 8 Mission Driven (8-1), another horse that has primarily raced on turf; and 9 Malekith (20-1), who's making his third start off a layoff and is stretching out after two disappointing sprints.

A: 1,10
B: 3,6,8,9

Tampa Bay 7th
4 Beatown Baby (3-2) is a legitimate favorite. Four-year-old filly is a perfect 2-for-2 in turf sprints, winning both by more than five lengths. She was claimed out of her last race by Arnaud Delacour, given time off and returns to the races protected. This is a step up in competition, but the filly looks like a solid single.

Backups will include 1 Irish Fix (6-1), who's drawn inside returning from a layoff and owns the best TimeformUS early pace figure; 6 Tracy Ann's Legacy (7-2), a turf sprint specialist who is 3-for-7 overall and 1-for-1 at Tampa; 7 Feisty Chi Chi (15-1), who won his only turf sprint attempt and has been running middling races recently but might wake up with a return to turf; and 8 Dangerous Curves (15-1), who showed speed and stopped in her return race but might like this trip.

A: 4
B: 1,6,7,8

Tampa Bay 8th
6 Mighty Electrica (4-1) is the top selection in a wide-open maiden claiming race. Five-year-old is one of the few horses who hasn't yet failed at this level. Competitive Beyer Speed Figures and the highest TimeformUS early pace figure give this horse a slight advantage.

12 Sharon's Law (3-1) is also dropping in claiming price. Three-year-old filly continues to run non-threatening but relatively consistent races. This will be the weakest field she's faced, so she definitely has a shot.

10 Koa Kani (6-1) finished second twice in four dirt starts, which is not bad for this field. His numbers are on the weaker side, but he could make an improvement making his second start off a short layoff. He's similar on paper to Sharon's Law but just a little slower.

7 K J's Caffe (5-1) has a right to improve making only her second career start. She could not keep up early in a slowly run race last time, but she did run through the end.

9 Katie Faloona (9-2) has been facing better the last few starts. She has tried everything -- short, long, turf, dirt -- but can't seem to figure it out. Maybe seven furlongs will be the fit.

A: 6,12
B: 7,9,10

Wagers
All-A ticket
$3 Pick 4: 2,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 6,12 ($36)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7 with 3,6,8,9 with 4 with 6,12 ($12)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7 with 1,10 with 1,6,7,8 with 6,12 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 7,9,10 ($9)

Total: $81
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