Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 3/22/20
By Mike Dempsey
My second choice Wells Choice took the field gate to wire to win Saturday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) and earn a ticket in the starting gate on the first Saturday of September for the Kentucky Derby (G1).
I will never get used to saying, “first Saturday of September.”
For the third time in a week, within an hour after I finished handicapping, a track announced it was closing. First it was Gulfstream Park closing Friday (although just for a day), then Aqueduct, and then yesterday afternoon Fair Grounds announced that Saturday’s Louisiana Derby card would be the final card of the meeting.
Yesterday morning I actually looked over the remining tracks and thought to myself we would stick to Fair Grounds as I rated that track the least likely to close. Wrong.
There is still plenty of horse racing action and for today I did the full card from Santa Anita and my Best Plays Report includes Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita.
Among the other tracks that are still running include Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Golden Gate Fields, Turfway Park, Charles Town, Los Alamitos, Will Rogers Downs and Fonner Park.
There is still racing in Hong Kong and Australia, and don’t forget next Saturday is the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1). I plan on handicapping that full card which features plenty of U.S. based runners who made the trip.
With so many around the country not working and forced to stay home, horse racing has given us a nice diversion and I hope it continues.
Here is the second race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 2 Md Sp Wt (1:34 ET)
#7 Just for One Day 2-1
#1 Groundbreaking 10-1
#2 Boss Onthe Horizon 4-1
#3 Shared Legacy 3-1
Analysis: Just for One Day makes his first starts since his debut last June where he showed good early speed pressing the early pace before weakening to finish fifth. The colt looks well prepared at Payson for a barn that is 17% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The $210,000 purchase is out of the stakes winner Mother Ruth ($288,943) who has dropped two other foals to race including stakes winner Yuvetski ($259,888).
Groundbreaking dueled for the early lead and faded to fish sixth in his debut here going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. Wilkes does not usually have them fully cranked first time out and this guy figures to move forward off his debut effort. He is by Tapit out of an End Sweep mare that has dropped four winners including one turf winner. The barn hits at a 10% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 8 OClm $25,000N1X (4:43 ET)
#3 With Herself 9-2
#6 On the Town 7-2
#5 Dyna Passer 6-5
#4 Bo's Image 8-1
Analysis: With Herself bumped coming out of the gate, saved ground much of the trip, was in a bit tight nearing the 1/8 pole and weakened to finish seventh while beaten 3 1/2 lengths. She regressed off her number two back off the break, but she looks as if she may appreciate the stretch out to 1 1/2 miles. She is by Lilbourne out of a Danehill Dancer mare. She picks up Rosario and Motion is adept at getting turf runners to go long. She looks primed for a top effort third off the bench here.
On the Town was bumped coming out of the gate and raced near the back of the pack, made a good middle move and then weakened while lugging in and finished fifth beaten 2 3/4 lengths going 1 3/16 miles. She broke her maiden going nine furlongs and missed by just a neck at this level at the same distance in her first start against winners. Saez picks up the call and pedigree wise 1 1/2 miles is pushing it, but she is going to offer a bit more value than the chalk in here.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 3,6 / 3,4,5,6 / 3,4,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 8 The Sensational Star (4:09 PT)
#3 Brandothebartender 5-1
#4 Just Grazed Me 4-1
#7 Lieutenant Dan 7-2
#9 Stealthdiamonds 5-1
Analysis: Brandothebartender makes his third start off the bench here for the Dollase barn. The gelding was a decent third in the Cal Cup Sprint on the main track off the layoff. The winner Fashionably Fast came back to win the Tiznow on March 1. Las out our top pick was back on turf was a game second against Alw-2 optional claimers. He has not won since '18 where he beat state bred allowance foes and he also won the state bred California Flag that October. He should get a good tracking trip from mid pack and another move forward her he can be in the mix at a decent price.
Just Grazed Me was off a beat slow last out in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint, tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish behind our fourth choice in here. That snapped a three race winning streak that included winning the Maddy (G3) two back here with a good late rally. She takes on the boys here but her last three numbers make her a player.
Lieutenant Dan returns off a two-month break and makes just his second start since last August. Last out he stalked the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a neck in the Cal Cup Sprint at six furlongs on the main track behind repeater Fashionably Fast. He has just two career starts on turf and they were both going long. He handled the grass, both third place finishes in state bred company last spring. It looks as if he should be able to handle his first turf sprint of his career.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,7,9
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,7,9 / 2,3,4,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Santa Anita
R4: #2 Tailback 8-1
R5: #5 Uno Dancer 10-1
R7: #6 Fast as Cass 8-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 4
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $1 Super Hi 5 / $.20 Rainbow 6 (Races 4-9)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 2:36P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * PLEASANT ORB: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SNEER: Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NO BULL JACK: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. EMMA ROSE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8
PLEASANT ORB
9/5
4/1
2
SNEER
3/1
6/1
1
NO BULL JACK
15/1
10/1
3
EMMA ROSE
4/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
8
PLEASANT ORB
8
9/5
Stalker
79
75
64.5
79.6
75.1
1
NO BULL JACK
1
15/1
Alternator/Stalker
84
47
68.3
44.6
35.6
7
ERV'S WENCH
7
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
74
68
60.4
60.4
51.4
2
SNEER
2
3/1
Trailer
73
73
72.0
69.2
64.7
4
KISS THEORY
4
12/1
Trailer
0
0
65.4
65.4
59.9
3
EMMA ROSE
3
4/1
Alternator/Trailer
0
0
68.3
68.3
63.3
Unknown Running Style: GUARDED SECRET (10/1) [Jockey: Saez Luis - Trainer: Hennig Mark A], SO DARN HOT (10/1) [Jockey: Castellano Javier - Trainer: Weaver George].
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds
PURCHASE
Fair Grounds - Race 7
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Daily Double
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 3:24P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $25,000 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * COMMANDER SCOTT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. ONE MORE JUMP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NO QUARTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
15
COMMANDER SCOTT
6/1
9/2
14
ONE MORE JUMP
4/1
5/1
6
NO QUARTER
4/1
6/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
6
NO QUARTER
6
4/1
Front-runner
80
77
94.2
67.8
62.8
10
ROUX GA ROUX
10
3/1
Front-runner
0
0
91.0
59.7
51.2
14
ONE MORE JUMP
14
4/1
Front-runner
81
80
89.4
71.6
66.1
7
BAUDETTE BLIZZARD
7
6/1
Front-runner
74
68
67.6
67.0
56.5
15
COMMANDER SCOTT
15
6/1
Stalker
81
75
81.5
71.1
64.6
9
BARROW ROAD
9
20/1
Alternator/Stalker
0
0
58.6
50.9
32.4
5
BRITTS A CLOSER
5
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
77
69
50.8
60.2
46.7
3
GRAND PRIORITY
3
10/1
Trailer
0
0
61.6
61.6
51.6
13
THUNK
13
20/1
Trailer
0
0
32.2
50.2
35.7
12
SABER RUN
12
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
52.1
5.7
0.0
4
REINSURE
4
6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
74
69
47.6
44.2
29.2
16
DADDY COOL CAT
16
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
32.4
40.6
23.1
Unknown Running Style: COME ON ARCHIE (12/1) [Jockey: Graham James - Trainer: Hodges James E], ZELIG (12/1) [Jockey: Bridgmohan Shaun - Trainer: Mouton Patrick], SHACKLE THE GOLD (20/1) [Jockey: Murrill Mitchell - Trainer: Cuccia L Jay], UNWANTED INT
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