Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 3/21/20
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Sportsline claims that so far this year, Weir has an ROI of 61.53 percent.
5:49 PM ET
The Louisiana Derby brings together a full field of 14 horses. More than half the field will be coming from the two divisions of the Risen Star Stakes run on Feb 15. From the Risen Star, Enforceable and Silver State exit the faster of the two divisions though neither race was overly impressive.
3 Wells Bayou (8-1) exits the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park with a second-place finish and a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, the best in this field. The Southwest was his first start on a fast surface. (His first three races were listed as muddy or sloppy.) I expect jockey Florent Geroux to put Wells Bayou on the lead and look to wire the field; the other potential speed horses are all drawn outside. If they decide to press, Wells Bayou might get a clear lead. With a full field, I'm ready to bet the top-figure horse at what could be an overlaid price.
8 Royal Act (10-1) is a California shipper that, similar to Wells Bayou, comes off an excellent race in its first time over fast dirt. (His first two races were over the turf.) I'm usually a little leery of the California horses in Louisiana, but since the local horses seem so muddled, I'm drifting toward the new faces with tactical speed.
10 Enforceable (7-2) and 13 Silver State (6-1) exit the better of the Risen Star divisions. Of the two, I much prefer Enforceable, though either could close into the bottom of exotics with a clean trip. From the weaker Risen Star division, the one interesting horse may be 12 Lynn's Map (30-1). This Mark Casse trainee dropped to last in the Risen Star and made a late run to finish sixth. It was not an inspiring move, but it was out of character; this horse has shown reasonable pressing speed in the past and now switches back to Tyler Gaffalione, who has won on the horse in the past. Maybe the Risen Star was a failed experiment or maybe Lynn's Map just wasn't feeling it that day or maybe he's just trending in the wrong direction, but at 30-1, he's worth including on the lower half of tickets.
Since I have doubts about the quality of the Risen Star races, I will focus on the new faces in New Orleans and fade the second division of the Risen Star in particular.
$20 win 3 ($20)
$6 exacta box 3,8 ($12)
$2 exacta 3,8 with 3,8,10,12,13 ($16)
$1 trifecta 3 with 8,10,13 with 1,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 ($21)
5:49 PM ET
Louisiana Derby leaderboard in predicted order of finish (morning-line odds in parentheses)
3 Wells Bayou (8-1) -- The son of Lookin at Lucky didn't last on the lead in the Southwest Stakes but hung on to finish second. The pace won't be as hot in this race, and he could take them all the way.
10 Enforceable (7-2) -- The son of Tapit is talented and will likely be the favorite. He can win, but after winning the Lecomte Stakes he was a disappointing second in the first division of the Risen Star. I'm going against him here.
14 Modernist (6-1) -- With his win in the second division of the Risen Star, this son of Uncle Mo is already in the Derby field. So he doesn't have to be cranked up to win here, but I expect him to be near the front at the end.
1 Major Fed (8-1) -- He'll need to save ground with the inside post position. He was second to Modernist in the weaker, second division of the Risen Star and should improve after racing wide in that race.
13 Silver State (6-1) -- This Steve Asmussen trainee ran second in the Lecomte and third in the first division of the Risen Star. I'm not sure he's going to love the extra distance on Saturday, and post No. 13 won't help.
4 Chestertown (15-1) -- The $2 million New York-bred son of Tapit has a bright future. But this is his stakes debut and too big of a step right now.
6 Shake Some Action (15-1) -- Trained by Brad Cox, this son of Into Mischief beat Chestertown in his last start and is 2-for-3 lifetime. But this is his first stakes race, and, as with Chestertown, is facing his toughest test yet.
8 Royal Act (10-1) -- The son of American Pharoah finished second in the Robert Lewis Stakes and now leaves California. I think the horses on the West Coast are stronger than anywhere else, but Royal Act is a second-tier West Coast and not good enough to win this race.
9 Portos (8-1) -- This son of Tapit will probably like stretching out in distance, but he was a dismal third in the Withers Stakes.
11 Ny Traffic (15-1) -- The son of Cross Traffic will likely be near the front but won't be able to keep up in the end.
2 Mailman Money (15-1) -- He wWas bumped in the Risen Star and had an excuse, but he looks like he has distance limitations.
7 Sharecropper (20-1) -- I just can't imagine he will be competitive after a fourth in an optional claiming race in his last outing.
5 Social Afleet (50-1) -- His two wins have come against state-bred competition in Louisiana. Even with trainer Dallas Stewart, who loves to spring a big upset, in his corner, I have a hard time not tossing him.
12 Lynn's Map (30-1) -- He was fifth and sixth in his last two starts. I just can't see him running a good race on Saturday.
15 Mr. Big News (20-1) -- Even if he draws into the race, he's one that I will pass on.
16 Farmington Road (12-1) -- He took a nice step forward in the first division of the Risen Star. If he gets in I would play him to hit the board.
$1 exacta 3 with ALL ($13)
$1 exacta 10,14 with 1,3,4,6,10,13,14 ($12)
$.50 trifecta 3 with 1,10,13,14 with 1,4,6,8,9,10,11,13,14 ($16)
$.10 superfecta 3,10 with 1,3,10,14 with 1,3,4,6,8,10,13,14 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,13,14 ($25.20)
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My Louisiana Derby Late Pick 4 Ticket
March 20, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
It’s one extreme to another early on the Fair Grounds Late Pick 4 for Saturday, which ends with the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. The sequence runs from races 9-12 and in addition to the headliner includes the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic, the Mervin Muniz Memorial Classic and the Fair Grounds Oaks.
The Derby, raced at 1 3-16th miles, has a full boat of 14 scheduled to run, and so many entered have a legitimate shot for the victory. Of course, with the rescheduling of the Kentucky Derby to September, this and other springtime preps don’t have the same effect as far as immediate importance for the Triple Crown, but in and of themselves are important races for those with promising sophomores.
If you can confidently dive into the New Orleans Classic to start off the Pick 4, I tip my cap. There are so many legit possibilities, and with nine entered, there’s not a bum in the lot. Looks like a good spot for the ALL button.
It’s just the opposite in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Finite has won five straight and absolutely romped in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandria. While this doesn’t necessarily have to be a stroll in the park, her opponents will have to step up their game in a big, big way.
Here’s a look at the horses on the ticket for the Louisiana Derby:
Major Fed: Has had only three starts, but his second to Modernist in a division of the Risen Star sent the signal that he belongs with this group. Distance should be no problem.
Wells Bayou: Another with limited starts but he clearly has talent. He moves over from Oaklawn, where he set the pace and was caught late by Silver Prospector in the Grade 3 Southwest. He’s won half of his four starts and has a good chance to get to the lead.
Royal Act: Brings his game from the West Coast, where he has a maiden win and most recently was second to Thousand Words in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis. Looks like he’ll get better with distance, and the American Pharoah colt likely will be fairly close to the pace.
Enforceable: Had a rough trip for second against Mr Monomoy in a division of the Risen Star, but he just kept on running. Would almost have to get a better trip this time around.
Silver State: The No. 13 post doesn’t do him any favors, but he doesn’t have speed anyway and will have time to get into a better position heading into the first turn. He has trained like a champ since his last one, and don’t be surprised if he gets his first graded win after graded placings in the Risen Strar (third behind Mr Monomoy) and second in the Lecomte (behind Enforceable).
Also on the docket is the Muniz Memorial on turf, and Dot Matrix, Instilled Regard and Factor This are worthy of inclusion.
Here’s a suggested $67.50 play in Fair Grounds’ late Pick 4 on Saturday:
9) ALL (9 horses)
10) #1 Dot Matrix, #6 Instilled Regard, #9 Factor This.
11) #6 Finite.
12) #1 Major Fed, #3 Wells Bayou, #8 Royal Act, #10 Enforceable, #13 Silver State.
50-cent Pick 4 ticket: ALL with 1-6-9 with 6 with 1-3-8-10-13 ($67.50).
Mike Money McClure
AUSTRALIAN RULES FOOTBALL
Saturday, March 21 @ 1:36 AM - Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans - Pick: Crows -4.5
Adelaide is the stronger team in basically every aspect of the game. Expect this line to move closer to -6 by game time.
Saturday, March 21 @ 4:26 AM - Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Geelong Cats - Pick: Geelong Cats +9.5
This game should be much closer than the market is suggesting. I would make this line Sydney -6.5 in this environment. Ruckman Darcy Fort and Esava Ratugolea will keep the Cats within the number. Take the points.
Saturday, March 21 @ 4:26 AM - Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power - Pick: Port Adelaide Power -13.5
Saturday, March 21 @ 10:11 PM - North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints - Pick: Kangarroos +2.5
Sunday, March 22 @ 12:21 AM - Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions - Pick: Hawks +3.5
Sunday, March 22 @ 3:21 AM - West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons - Pick: Melbourne Demons +18.5
Last Edit: 1 week 6 days ago by Shazman.
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Sportsline claims that so far this year, Weir has an ROI of 61.53 percent.
LATE PICK 4 AT TAMPA BAY DOWNS
The four-race sequence begins at 2:35 p.m. ET with Race 5 and goes through Race 8.
Tampa Bay 5th
7 Double Deep (5-1): This 5-year-old gelding is unproven at this distance but may be the one horse running late. The pace should be contested, and this horse can pick up the pieces.
8 Spectacular Road (9-2): He might be the speed of the speed. He drops one level and has a strong trainer-jockey combo (Dale Bennett-Jose Ferrer).
9 Resident (5-1): This is another horse dropping to the $8,000 claiming level. He will hope to get a pressing ride outside the speed, get first run and then try to hold off any closers.
Tampa Bay 6th
1 Don't Fight (3-1): This filly ran races last fall that would win this easily, but she has not continued on. She won her last race on the dirt, was claimed and now returns to the turf. She's tough to trust but is a must use.
7 Premium Motion (6-1): She's similar to Don't Fight in that she was competitive running on the turf last spring and summer. After a middling return race, she returns to the turf. With not a lot to beat here, she has a chance.
2 Strict Vow (5-1): This 5-year-old mare is coming off two fourth-place finishes at Fair Grounds, ships back to Florida and can compete at this level.
3 Classy of Course (7-2): She took a while to figure things out but now has run three straight competitive races. She's a backup only.
5 Smarty Cat (8-1): This filly has been facing better but in races limited to 3-year-olds. She's worth a saver.
Tampa Bay 7th
11 Temple Mount (5-1): This horse has had many chances to clear this level, but I will give him another try. He was claimed and gelded after the last race, which may have been a tougher spot. He could be in an outside stalking position and may have a little more to offer following two seven-furlong races.
9 Maletta (9-2): Speed play. This 3-year-old gelding has proven that his best shot is to run on the lead. He may be able to clear and hold on after a decent second in a 6½-furlong sprint last time.
8 Threeninetytwo (6-1): Gelding has primarily raced on turf with just three dirt starts. His last race was his first sprint and dirt race in nine months. He is eligible to improve.
A: 11, 9, 8
Tampa Bay 8th
4 Igottawhiteface (7-2): She comes in off a win in the same class and could repeat as this race sets up in a similar fashion.
3 Antalya (6-1): Daughter of Skipshot enters this race out of the Igottawhiteface race. She had trouble mid-stretch, which cost her a length or two, but wasn't going to win anyway. She had been racing in better races prior to the last race and fits in here.
7 Shes Dynomite (9-2): Seven-year-old mare comes out of the same race as top two. She was not put into the race early, got stuck at least five-wide into the first turn and did not run much after that. With the jockey change, I have to think this horse will be on or near the lead.
8 Crown of Joy (6-1): Daughter of Crown of Thorns comes in off a layoff. The majority of her races last summer and fall were at a lower level in New Jersey. Her figures are in the vicinity of top horses, and maybe she comes back running for a strong trainer-jockey combo (Kathleen O'Connell-Antonio A. Gallardo).
$1 Pick 4: 7,8 with 1,2,7 with 8,9,11 with 3,4 ($36)
Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick4: 9 with 1,2,7 with 8,9,11 with 3,4 ($9)
$0.50 Pick4: 7,8 with 3,5 with 8,9,11 with 3,4 ($12)
$0.50 Pick4: 7,8 with 1,2,7 with 8,9,11 with 7,8 ($18)
Total wager: $75
5:49 PM ET
Top five horses, in order of preference:
4 Chestertown (15-1) -- Whenever jockey John Velazquez and trainer Steve Asmussen join forces, you have to pay attention. This son of Tapit had real traffic problems in his last race after breaking a step slow and still ran second. On March 9 he fired a six-furlong bullet, something Asmussen trainees don't do unless they do it on their own. At 15-1, he's going to be a bargain.
10 Enforceable (7-2) -- There's a reason he's the favorite; he's the most consistent horse in the race and always comes running at the end. His second in the Risen Star is better than it looks; the winner got loose setting slow fractions that day. He'll love the extra distance, and trainer Mark Casse is winning at a 20 percent clip.
3 Wells Bayou (8-1) -- This horse is the speed of the speed. He has set the pace in each of his four starts and has won twice. I don't know how far he can go, but I think he's going to hang on to hit the board. Trainer Brad Cox is on fire right now, winning at 24 percent.
6 Shake Some Action (15-1) -- Also trained by Cox, this son of Into Mischief beat Chestertown in his last start and did so by rallying behind slow fractions, not the easiest thing to do. He's on a two-race winning streak and has gotten faster with each successive start. With even more improvement on Saturday, he's right there with the others.
14 Modernist (6-1) -- A lot has been made that he won the slower division of the Risen Star, but he has improved steadily for trainer Bill Mott and should only improve more on Saturday. From the wide post, jockey Junior Alvarado will have his work cut out trying to get the same ground-saving trip that Modernist got in the Risen Star.
$2 exacta box 3,4,10 ($12)
$2 exacta box 4,6,10 ($12)
$2 exacta box 4,10,14 ($12)
$1 superfecta 4,10 with 4,10 with 3,6,14 with 3,6,14 ($12)
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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for 3/21/20
March 21, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Today’s Day Makers: View Video
Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Lets Get Wild
Forecast: Lets Get Wild was 10 lengths clear of the rest when second to next-out winner Lofty in a similar state-bred turf sprint for fillies in late January and was subsequently entered but scratched when she failed to draw into the race from the also-eligible list the following month. The E. Kruljac-trained daughter of Ministers Wild Cat sports a steady work tab in recent weeks so we’re expecting her to produce her best effort, one that should make her tough to beat. Nardini is lightly raced, improving, and bred for grass (Acclamation). She picks up F. Prat, and with another forward move may be dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line. Preference on top goes to Lets Get Wild but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Mystery Messenger; 5-Oliver
Forecast: Mystery Messenger appears well-placed to extend his winning streak to three in this second-level allowance main track miler that drew just five entrants. The Point of Entry gelding, fresh from a clever win in a productive race up north, projects as the controlling speed, though he certainly doesn’t need the lead to win. Reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding probably will have to worry most about stable mate Oliver, a strong runner-up in the recent Tiznow Stakes over this track and distance earlier this month. While the Santa Anita dirt strip is his least favorite surface (he’s much more effective at Del Mar and Los Alamitos), the son of Papa Clem should draft into a good stalking position outside and then have every chance to engage ‘Messenger from the head of the lane to the wire. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Mystery Messenger on top.
RACE 3: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Scarlet Heat; 5-Sassyserb
Forecast: Sassyserb continued her improving pattern when following up a good maiden score with a sharp runner-up effort in a similar first-level state-bred allowance event over the local lawn last month. Today she makes her first start since being transferred to the high percentage R. Baltas barn, so her upward mobility figures to continue. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be an issue for the granddaughter of Galileo, and with the switch to top grass rider U. Rispoli, she should be forwardly placed and trouble free throughout. Scarlet Heat is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. The daughter of Unusual Heat adds blinkers, has steadily rising speed figures, retains F. Prat, and owns the late-running style that makes her dangerous at this nine furlong distance.
RACE 4: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Rossman; 5-Ultimate Mystery; 8-Outright
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint looks like a messy affair so we’ll go three-deep and hope to survive and advance. Rossman is stuck on the rail – not usually the place to be at this seven furlong distance – but the lightly-raced son of Data Link just finished a solid runner-up in a similar affair 15 days ago and really won’t need to improve much to earn his diploma. This will be his second start off a long layoff, so a forward move is probable, and in a race in which most of the others have been thoroughly exposed, this J. Carava-trained gelding at least has somewhere to go. Ultimate Mystery is an intriguing newcomer in a very soft spot. This barn rarely wins with a first-timer but this son of Ultimate Eagle does show a bullet half mile gate drill (:47 flat) at Los Alamitos back in November, so maybe he can run a bit. Outright is a first-timer gelding from the R. Hanson barn with numbers that aren’t half bad, and in just his third career start he might have a forward move in him. A fair third in a similar event in early February charts pretty well here.
RACE 5: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Bound for Nowhere
Forecast: Bound for Nowhere has registered six consecutive bullet workouts at Turfway Park while preparing for this year’s edition of the San Simeon Stakes, and the lightly-raced six-year-old – he’s won 6 races from just 12 career starts – arrives fit and ready for trainer Wesley Ward, who hits at a strong 22% with layoff runners. With a history of firing fresh and with several triple-digit Beyer speed figures on his resume, the son of The Factor simply outclasses this field. However, at 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he won’t offer much value other than as a short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Order and Law; 4-Zorich
Forecast: This starter’s allowance main track miler has several possibilities. We’ll double the race but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Zorich didn’t get the best or runs when third after losing ground throughout in a similar affair last month but the son of Hard Spun retains U. Rispoli and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip and have every chance to reproduce his best form. Never off the board over the Santa Anita main track in four starts and with two easy breezes since his last outing, the M. Glatt-trained gelding may offer a bit of value at or near his morning line of 4-1. Order and Law is just 1-for-17 and winless on dirt, but the V. Cerin-trained son of Violence is very competitive based on his recent turf speed figures, so if he can duplicate his grass form on the main track he could be hard to handle. The V. Cerin-trained ridgeling will be doing his best work from off the pace.
RACE 7: Post 3:35 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Oscar Dominguez; 6-Ward ‘n Jerry
Forecast: Oscar Dominguez has developed into a genuine and consistent turf stayer and should continue his strong recent form in this year’s edition of the San Luis Rey Stakes over 12 furlongs down the Hillside course. The veteran gelding picks up U. Rispoli and will get the patient ride he requires. With good racing luck he should be able to wear down the leaders close home. Ward ‘n Jerry, third when beaten a neck by our top pick in the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar in early December, was subsequently second in the Cal Cup Turf Classic here in January and today stretches back out to a marathon trip while switching to F. Prat. A three-time winner over the local lawn, the son of Lucky Pulpit has a bit more tactical speed than ‘Dominguez and will be getting four lbs. from his main rival. You have to include him at least as a saver in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Taco Waco; 5-See Through It; 8-Blazing Home
Forecast: This is a split of the second race, a seven furlong maiden $20,000 claimer for older horses. We’ll use three but not with any real degree of confidence. Taco Waco must overcome the rail but he’s a fit on figures and has enough tactical speed to be within range throughout. He’s been facing a bit stronger fields than this, so with any kind of improvement he’ll be right there. See Through, a weakening seventh in his debut after flashing some early speed, should be fitter and stronger today, so if he can produce any type of forward move the A. Sherman-trained gelding may have a chance to do some damage at 6-1 on the morning line. Blazing Home hasn’t gotten even remotely close in his first two starts – he’s been beaten a total of 28 lengths – but he hails from the high percentage R. Baltas outfit and lands F. Prat. On the chance that for whatever reason he’s much better than shown, we’ll toss him in as well.
RACE 9: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: C+
Use:1-Miss Tokyo; 3-Tagline; 10-Lookintogeteven
Forecast: The finale is a borderline inscrutable maiden turf miler for fillies and mares. We’ll triple the race but you should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Tagline finished an okay third after being a bit rank early in her first start in nine months and just her second overall, so the daughter of Bellamy Road may have more right to improve than most of the others. She switches to M. Smith – always one of this barn’s go-to riders – so if she can settle early and produce a late run, the J. Mullins-trained filly might get up in time. Miss Tokyo lands the rail and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics after getting tagged right on the money in the same race Tagline exits. This shortening to a mile won’t hurt, especially in a field without much other speed signed on. Lookintogeteven, a deep closer that always seems to be a day late and a dollar short, will make her run again today, but from the extreme outside post. She’ll need some help up front, but one of these days the daughter of Ghostzapper will break through and in an open fray she’s worth including at 8-1 on the morning line.
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Al Cimaglia: March 20-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 21, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Cal Expo has a $30,000 guaranteed pool for the 0.20 Pick 4. The sequence begins in Race 8, it has a 16% takeout and will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
2-Rockin Eddie (12-1)-Willing to take at a swing with Eddie at this level. Barn has been doing well, now Magee takes the lines and that's a positive. Needs a trip and that can happen, could surprise at a nice price.
4-Dontdoubtthelakers (7/2)-Plano takes a seat and he has had success steering this veteran. Hasn't shown much lately but faces the softest field in some time and it's best to respect.
7-Hi Ho's Little Rev (9/2)-This is another who drops to a spot to shine and should be a big threat with the right trip. Gets a bit of post relief compared to the last 3 starts, it might be time to dial it on high.
4-Exsqueezeme (3-1)-Rolled by most of these in the slop last week to score at 9/2. Should be bet after beating 6 from this field and draws well again.
5-Capitol Hill (7/2)-Drops out of Open company and has a big shot if brings a top effort. Has only 1 win at the meet and that was versus cheaper than this, but best to not overlook.
8-Royal Mistress (9/2)-Was the even money choice last week at this level. Didn't get the best of trips and the price should be better. Looks like a player but needs the right steer. Did beat Open company on 2-7.
9-Lickcreek Speedway (4-1)-If there is a speed duel and pace is quick Kennedy should have this mare rolling late in the mile. Might be overlooked at the windows, likes the track and this race might set-up for a closer.
2-Brooklyn Moonshine (7/2)-Usually is in the mix on a fast track and comes off a tripped out win. Barn has been cold but at this class and from this post it's best to consider.
3-Thats How it Goes (5-1)-Was the beaten chalk versus this group last week. Money showed in last and Kennedy stays in the bike. Using in a race without a standout and price should be better.
4-Hagginatthebeach (5-1)-Plano got on the engine and was passed in the late going by #2. Going to the top is not a must and maybe in this case gets a cozy trip and rolls by down the lane.
5-Casey N Grinegan (6-1)-Makes 4th start after about a month off and did pass foes in last. Could be ready for a rare win and should offer a nice price.
1-Little Emma (6-1)-Emma is only 1 for 23 when the track is wet and the last 2 have been on an off-track. Taking a swing with Kennedy from the rail, looking for a sweet trip at a square price.
8-Dontcloseyoureyes (9/2)-Had 2 dominate wins from the #7 and #9 posts on a fast track. Last 2 on an off-track hasn't worked out but is only 2 for 26 when the track is wet. Looks like a player on a fast strip and best to not overlook.
0.20 Pick 4
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Sam Houston - Race #5
#8 Always Inthe Munny The horse to beat was a good 2nd at long odds in an open AOC last time, dips into the state-bred ranks, and has the right running style in a speedy race; love her chances here.
#4 Dust a Flying ML favorite settled and won a La.-bred stakes last time, but did so in slow time, which won't scare the pick, who brings a much better recent race to the table; second-best today.
#1 Gee the Sparkles Logical sort was a solid 2nd in her own open AOC, and she's got a stalking gear that will play well here too, though the rail offers no bargains; limiting her use to underneath only.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML on the pick seems very fair, as she shows a recent race that the rest of these won't be able to handle, so swing aggressively to win and place if you see 3-1 or better, though you can get some added value by keying her in the exotics, since she looks poised to become a stakes winner on the class drop.
Sam Houston - Race #7
#5 Direct Dial The chalk didn't break and was too far back in an open stakes last time, but he still ran well to be 3rd in a very fast race, and now he drops in with state breds, which doesn't bode well for the rest of these; imposing.
#3 Texas Long Bow Price player has been running at Remington and now gets a huge trainer change to Diodoro, who is known for moving their form up, so while he's still likely outgunned, he'll offer value in the exotics; can spice things up.
#6 Imma Bling The more likely EX partner didn't fire at OP last time but now goes off the Broberg claim (27%) and should like getting back to the local oval, not to mention he's been running strictly against open foes; will get a piece.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 5 but $6 or so seems pretty fair in view of who he is facing, so make an aggressive win bet if the tote allows, though you can get some added value by singling him to kick off the late Pk5, since the betting public doesn't like to do that with a heavy favorite to start a sequence, plus if you use a price in the exotics like the 3, you'll get rewarded there too.
Sam Houston - Race #10
#7 Happy Sonrisa Amoss firster goes for a barn that doesn't excel with first-time turfers, but this is an extremely weak field, Parker is here, there's a slew of works on display, she meets a meek field and you don't see too many Uncle Mo's running in these parts; can surprise.
#11 Xingfu The chalk has the best turf race showing, as that relatively close 7th at FG two-back would likely win this, since this is a drop in class, but this post did her no favors, she'll be overbet, and it's not like she has much margin for error either; scary, but no lock.
#5 Brandons Babe The best of the locals was a distant 2nd in her turf debut last time, after acting up pre-race too, so she can build off that, and she drew much better than the chalk as well, so if she takes a small step forward, then she's got a chance; would be no surprise.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 7, as she should be live and taking money, especially for these connections in this kind of spot, so if the money shows she's very playable in all the slots, though you can guarantee some value by using her to end the late Pk5/Pk4, since this isn't field of world beaters, and if she can run just a bit she'll have a definite say.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Charles Town - Race #3
#4 Ravin' Maven Took plenty of cash before a clunker in the debut, but he drops for this second start and might have something better in him with the debut under his belt.
#3 Sonde St Blues Ran a good second in that two-back try a this level, but I'm not totally sold on him cutting back around one turn here.
#5 Twobitsaride Recent runs with better stack up nicely enough with this group, but his tendency to give away ground late could haunt him again tonight.
Race Summary Ravin Maven was 8/5 in the debut run but didn't show much. He has at least as small bit of upside with the experience behind him while dropping into a maiden claiming spot.
Charles Town - Race #6
#3 Two Bit Kid Reliable type has run well over multiple surfaces and brings a couple of recent races that would probably make short work of these.
#4 Hero's Man Pace seems to every time, and he'll likely offer a rare decent price tonight in this tough field. Not out of it.
#6 Boaster Beat Hero's Man when they met back in November, but he hasn't been seen since that race and will have to fire fresh.
Race Summary Two Bit Kid is lined at 5/1 and would be playable at something closer to half that off his recent running lines. He should be in line for a really nice trip with these.
Charles Town - Race #7
#5 Runnin'toluvya Draw a line through the last one -- he broke through the gate pre-race and came back bleeding from his leg after being eased in the race. He got some time off to refresh and can handle this group if he is back on his A-game.
#2 Penguin Power Beat the top choice last September, and his dangerous early speed makes him a main player again. He has rattled off seven in a row and wouldn't surprise with an eighth.
#4 Mean Bean Finisher might need a small misfire or two in order to get over the top with these, but he seems logical underneath off a couple of really nice recent races.
Race Summary Charles Town Classic winner Runnin'toluvya deserves a complete pass for his last race, and he fired a big shot off the layoff around this time last year.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
#1 ROYAL RHYTHM Steady gain, loomed boldly in lane, denied by same rival he faces tonight.
#2 VILLEFRANCHE AS Yet to recapture 3-year-old form, can’t be ignored at a price.
#5 SOMBRE Found second gear on lead, holds big tactical edge, doesn’t shy from photo-finish camera.
Race Summary Royal Rhythm had dead aim on Sombre in mid-stretch off a perfect cover trip, but Sombre fought back when headed to prevail. The value remains with Royal Rhythm, who could try to gain pocket position from the rail. Play 1-4 and 2-4 daily doubles.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
#4 NIGHT STICK Slowed pace in middle half, repelled the favorite, couldn’t hold on.
#5 RUKIDINMECABBIE Gapped cover on turn, surged to front in deep stretch.
#2 GRAND POOBAH Steady numbers, pocket trip landed third runner-up finish in last six starts.
Race Summary Night Stick shrugged off a first-over challenge by favored Cheddar Bay after the pace slowed in the second quarter, but he couldn’t hold off the closers in the stretch. He can make good use of his speed in similar lineup and return to his winning ways.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
#3 SABINE PASS Classy 8yo had excuse two back, exits fast race last week, must use on all tickets.
#2 OFFICER JONES Beaten fave at Western Fair two back in race that got him eligible for this.
#4 JEWELS DRAGON Has speed, knows how to win, seeks repeat.
Race Summary Sabine Pass is a live longshot in here. He took money off a layoff in his seasonal debut and showed some late interest after lacking running room throughout. He paced evenly in a much faster follow-up race, setting him up to pop at a good price tonight. Play a 3-ALL exacta.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #3
#4 Vita Dolce Broke his maiden on turf last spring and most recently was a closing 2nd in a race that came off the turf; turning up for a big effort on grass.
#2 What's to Blame Has been close in three of his last four and is usually moving well at the end of these short sprints; capable of a huge slice of this one.
#6 Sovereign Warrior Has been in stronger races and has come up empty; likely to show some serious improvement in this spot.
Race Summary Vita Dolce is turning the corner in form and should finish full of run in his return to turf.
Gulfstream Park - Race #5
#9 Starship Apollo Was up in time in a fast race last time and was claimed by Avila stable; 11-time winner just keeps pressing to the end of his races and can fight off this group.
#3 French Quarter Won two straight before losing at a higher level last time; back to the level at which he last won. Has won a dozen races and is good in the claiming ranks.
#6 Li'l Meatball Won three races back and has been tiring lately; can stick around for a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary Starship Apollo brings his best nearly every time and has kept his form over a long period; one to hold off.
Gulfstream Park - Race #7
#1 Kid Bourbon Has been in tough races and lost a photo two races back; makes his 1st turf start and his pedigree indicates he should have no trouble with the change.
#11 Souper Scat Daddy Closed with a rush in a fast race last time and seems to be able to adjust his running style somewhat; very tough in five of his six starts.
#9 Bourbon in May Ran on well and was 2nd in his last two; has a steady late move and could wear them down.
Race Summary Kid Bourbon moves over to the turf and the Lemon Drop Kid runner should be able to handle the turf as well as the distance.
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Fair Grounds Oaks
5:15 PM ET
There are only two fillies whom I feel can win the Fair Grounds Oaks. One is pretty obvious, the 3-5 favorite Finite. The other filly requires a little creativity to find but offers tremendous value.
I was at Fair Grounds for Fox Sports the day that 6 Finite (3-5) won the Rachel Alexandra, and she was phenomenal. She has won five straight races, including two graded stakes. She has tactical speed and is drawn outside, and her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 90 is 11 points better than the next best in the field. She's the pick.
The longshot I like is 1 Antoinette (12-1). Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, this Godolphin homebred has won two of three starts. She started her career with two races on the turf, but in her last start she won an off-the-turf race at Aqueduct. I think that performance showed that this daughter of Hard Spun may actually have some dirt ability, and I find it interesting that Mott brings her back from a three-plus month layoff on the dirt and not the turf. If she matured at all during the layoff -- something you would expect as fillies turn 3-years-old -- she'll have a chance to run well at a big price.
I'm going to lean heavily on Finite, bet that Antoinette runs well and fade the rest. I'll also play a double using only Finite in the Oaks leg.
$30 win 6 ($30)
$30 exacta 6 with 1 ($30)
$10 exacta 1 with 6 ($10)
If 16 Farmington Road runs in the Louisiana Derby: $15 double 6 with 10,16 ($30)
If 16 Farmington Road does not run in the Louisiana Derby: $30 double 6 with 10 ($30)
Eddie Olczyk’s Louisiana Derby Picks: Upset Brewing?
by Eddie Olczyk
March 18, 2020
Before we jump into analyzing this race, I just want to ask that all of us horseplayers to stay smart and healthy out there. Thankfully we can bet the races from the Fair Grounds, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Aqueduct and more with our Xpressbet accounts.
Sixteen horses have entered the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds (only fourteen can start) and among them are nine horses exiting the split divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, which were contested here on February 15. Modernist, who rode the rail to victory in one of those races, is stuck with Post Position 14 on Saturday, which could severely hinder his chances.
As you’re handicapping, be sure to keep an eye on the forecast. Early predictions show on-and-off showers throughout the day Saturday in New Orleans, so just keep that in mind when evaluating the contenders and building your bets. Believe it or not, my picks should hold true rain or shine.
I see plenty of speed signed on for this race. #3 WELLS BAYOU, #11 NY TRAFFIC and #14 MODERNIST want to race on/near the front and a few others have tactical speed and can race just behind them. Those are the horses I’m going to build my bets around.
#7 SHARECROPPER is a 20/1 outsider on the morning line but I think he has a huge chance here. Two starts ago he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a key race that produced next out winners Sounion, Excession and Banks Island. If the name Excession looks familiar, he just finished second at odds of 82/1 behind Nadal in the G2 Rebel Stakes. In SHARECROPPER’s comeback race on February 15, I think he was too close to the pace in a slowly run race. Moreover, when it came time to run he found himself hemmed in behind horses without clear sailing for most of the stretch.
With a better trip on Saturday, I expect a much better result. My hope is that the speed horses are sent to the lead and SHARECROPPER’s jockey, Miguel Mena, sits back and makes one big run. If he’s able to avoid traffic and find racing room at the right time, I think he has a big chance.
I’m going to use SHARECROPPER alongside some of the other tactical horses - #2 MAILMAN MONEY (15/1), #8 ROYAL ACT (10/1) and #9 PORTOS (8/1).
$10 Win, Place, Show: SHARECROPPER ($30)
$1 Trifecta Box: SHARECROPPER, MAILMAN MONEY, ROYAL ACT, PORTOS ($24)
$10 Exacta Key: SHARECROPPER over MAILMAN MONEY, ROYAL ACT, PORTOS ($30)
#2 MAILMAN MONEY
#8 ROYAL ACT
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:02pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 76
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#1 AUGUSTO B (ML=20/1)
#2 DETERMINED (ML=12/1)
AUGUSTO B - This gelding should give a strong account of himself in today's race. DETERMINED - This gelding is in good condition. Ran second on March 3rd. This horse has increased his speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking notice of.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SQUEEGEE (ML=3/1), #12 CRACKIN JON (ML=9/2), #5 BOLD CHARMANT (ML=5/1),
SQUEEGEE - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last two to three weeks. This gelding registered a speed fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough today. CRACKIN JON - This horse notched a rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. BOLD CHARMANT - Finished sixth last time out of the box. Would have to advance to be on the board in today's race.
Bet on #1 AUGUSTO B to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
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