Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 3/19/20
Al Cimaglia: March 19-Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis
March 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hopefully this crisis will be behind all of us in the near future. Unfortunately, harness tracks have been closing so subsequently my writing schedule will vary from the usual Friday-Monday analysis. Tonight, the Early 0.20 Pick 4 at Woodbine Mohawk Park will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 4
4-Beach Baby Bee (2-1)-Drew off by more than 4 lengths to beat 4 from this field in last start. Smoked the back half in 55.2, last quarter in 26.2 and looks like a must use.
5-Farmers Tan (7/2)-Jamieson's choice over #1 can leave to get the top and might enjoy the company. If #4 doesn't have his best fastball this guy could cash the biggest check.
Race 5
3-State Of Play (12-1)-Gets post relief tonight and has been racing well. Needs a good steer and Hudon has some choices. Could take a picture at a big price.
6-Legal Bettor (7/2)-Makes 1st start for Moreau after breaking stride when claimed as an odds-on favorite. Fits here and was a winner in 25% of starts in 2019.
7-Quan Blue Chip (5/2)-Makes 1st start for Moreau off a claim and has won 2-straight. Has been very sharp and Filion could get the top or 2-hole behind #8.
8-Leader Tonight (3-1)-Probably has the best gate speed and is another who has been racing well. May offer some value because of the post and if crosses over without using a lot of gas it could be picture time again.
Race 6
1-Casimir Rumrunner (10-1)-Makes 2nd start for the Fellows barn and 2nd try at Wbsb. Took the short way around last week and went the back half in 55.4. Might be better tonight, from this post could trip out and pop at a price.
3-P L Idaho (5/2)-Makes 3rd start back in the Moreau barn and draws inside. Should be a player but will likely offer no value and hasn't been able to finish off miles.
4-Kingofthejungle (3-1)-Drops to a spot to snag 1st win of the year. Has the gate speed to be put in play off the gate and control the race.
Race 7
1-Mr Contestant (2-1)-Won 1st start on 1-27 after joining the Boyd barn and has struggled since. Now takes a good drop in class and shouldn't have any excuses versus this crew but can't completely trust.
6-Mystery Bet (12-1)-Only 2 wins in last 31 starts and makes 2nd try for new barn. Trainer hands the lines to McClure. Even effort in last start with Jones in the bike and was off almost a month, will take a swing at 12-1 in the ML.
7-Graceful (5-1)-Muscle Hill mare has been rested since 10-31 and makes season debut after 2 qualifiers. Should like the company and has 3 wins in 13 starts at Wbsb.
0.20 Early Pick 4
4,5/3,6,7,8/1,3,4/1,6,7
Total Bet=$14.40
__________________
Jonathon Kinchen
Gulfstream Park late Pick 4
4:05 PM ET
SportsLine claims he is currently riding a hot streak. In the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, Kinchen nailed an $80 win bet on Ete Indien that paid a healthy $344. And in last week's Beholder Mile, he gave out a $50 exacta that paid $550. Over the last three weekends, Kinchen has an ROI of 90.80 percent!
Overview
A vulnerable favorite in Race 8 makes Thursday's late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park a solid wagering opportunity. I'm going to spread a little in the first two legs (Races 7 and 8) and get narrow in the last two legs (Race 9 and 10). Using the A-B-C-X method for multirace wagers, I'm able to press my strongest opinions while still staying within my budget.
Gulfstream Park 7th
2 Shanghaisweetheart (5-2) -- I feel like this one should get the lead with our other A horse, Keilani, sitting right outside of her. Shanghaisweetheart has hit the board in four straight races and had an excuse while sprinting in the worst effort of those four. She seems to have woken up a bit since switching to Victor Barboza Jr.'s barn.
6 Keilani (8-1) -- Has run well since joining the Sandra Matier barn. She projects to have a similar trip to the one she got the last two races. Had a bit of trouble in her last start which may have caused her to lose some momentum. Should sit a great trip and has a big chance to win if she can duplicate either of her last two efforts.
1 Myfrancesca (7-2) -- Deserves a look and fits with these, but I don't love the post.
8 Blue Chicory (10-1) -- Stretching out, drawn outside and has some back numbers that fit. Could jump up, but I prefer the others more. I would use her defensively at an acceptable price of 10-1 on the morning line.
A: 2,6
B: 1,8
Gulfstream Park 8th
2 Big Hambone (10-1) -- Brendan Walsh is one of the most under-appreciated turf trainers in the country. He claimed this horse, gave him a 45-plus day break, worked him on the turf March 4 and now runs him on the turf with Tyler Gafflione. I like what I see.
6 Youshouldbesolucky (4-1) -- There's a small chance this one gets loose with jockey Paco Lopez. Could get brave on the front end and hold on if the others don't fire.
9 Uncle Curly (6-1) -- This one had a terrible trip last time. He was wide throughout at the level right above this. He has some performances in his past that would handle this field easily. He might not be that horse anymore, but if he improves off his last race that could be good enough to beat these.
3 Sir Seamus (7-2) -- This will be his first start after being claimed from the Mike Maker barn. I typically don't like horses that are claimed from that sharp operation, but Carlos David, who used to be Jason Servis' assistant, is winning at a 25 percent clip in 2020.
A: 2,6,9
B: 3
Gulfstream Park 9th
3 Flora Fantasy (8-5) -- She's the best on paper for a high-percentage trainer. She would normally be a single for me in a six-horse field, but I can't get past Shes All Woman.
5 Shes All Woman (2-1) -- Her last two figures fit, and she was just behind Flora Fantasy in her last start. She also has the advantageous outside post.
A: 3,5
Gulfstream Park 10th
1 Mystical Moon (7-2) -- I love Mystical Moon and will single him in the Pick 4. He was comfortable in the "pocket" in his last start in deeper waters. The speed figure stands out against this group. The inside draw should assure that this one will save ground on both turns, and he just needs a smidge of racing luck to get clear sailing and get his picture taken.
A: 1
B: 3,4,5,7
Gulfstream Park Pick 4 Grid
All-A:
$3 Pick 4: 2,6 with 2,6,9 with 3,5 with 1 ($36)
Three-A, one-B:
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8 with 2,6,9 with 3,5 with 1 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6 with 3 with 3,5 with 1 ($2)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6 with 2,6,9 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7 ($24)
Two-A, two-B:
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8 with 3 with 3,5 with 1 ($2)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8 with 2,6,9 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6 with 3 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7 ($8)
Total wager: $102
__________________
Ryan Littlejohn
Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans
Race 1
1st 1 - Don Gulliermo
2nd 7 - Time to Rome
3rd 4 - Last Nite Out
Race 2
1st 2 - Tenpins Tempo
2nd 6 - Fame Feather
3rd 5 - Diamond Cutter
Race 3
1st 4 - Belmar Beauty
2nd 2 - Heart River
3rd 3 - Callhermrsgelner
Race 4
1st 9 - Napoleon's Empire
2nd 2 - Copper Fiddle
3rd 5 - Tom's Last General
Race 5
1st 1 - Ace Destroyer
2nd 4 - There and Back
3rd 7 - Catalogue
Race 6
1st 4 - Darling Vera
2nd 3 - Evil Lyn
3rd 1 Fashion Land
Race 7
1st 8 - Storied Trip
2nd 1 - Sincerity
3rd 3 - Wildabout Audrey
Race 8
1st 10 - Arabella Bella
2nd 1 - Lexington Grace
3rd 6 - Morning Molly
Race 9
1st 9 - Lil Ashley B.
2nd 1 - Crider Chase
3rd 6 - Lassie's Last Hour
Top Picks
Race 2 2 - Tenpins Tempo
Race 5 1 - Ace Destroyer
Race 9 9 - Lil Ashley B.
__________________
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Golden Gate Fields - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Clifton Hollow Stretch runner moves up in class but really improved in his second route last time, drew perfectly, here, has plenty of upside after just four starts, and meets two sketch ML favorites; look out.
#2 Billtown Banner Dicey ML favorite has routed just once and it wasn't pretty, and while he's probably a better horse now, he has no edge on paper and and looks to be a big underlay at this price; second-best.
#3 Dare to Believe Lifetime maiden is not only 0-for-22 but he hasn't run in 367 days either, and even his form back then wasn't overwhelming, so there's no reason to take this underlaid 2-1 ML price; no thanks.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML on the pick seems way out of whack, as you could make a case he should be favored, so play him aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, though you can get some built-in value by keying him to kick off the early Pk5, as he seems primed for another big run, which might be too much for either of his main protagonists.
Golden Gate Fields - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Deepingreen Stiff class dropper has been running well against better, and while he lost to the heavy chalk last time, he appears to own a tactical edge here; can turn the tables.
#5 Dirt Road Red Aforementioned heavy chalk beat the pick last time, but only by 3/4's of a length, so the margin is this, and he'll be chasing the whole way too; scary, but no lock.
#2 Praise Loudly The biggest dropper of all has been in against eons better, but he also looks off form off his last two, so there's a chance he's going the wrong way fast; tread lightly.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 3 but if they hammer the 5 then you might sneak out $6.00 and change, which seems fair in what is a five-horse race, especially since he was less than a length behind the chalk last time, so play him to win and place, if the tote allows, while using him in the early Pk5/Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since budget players might be singling 'Red, even though he has little to no margin for error.
Golden Gate Fields - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Iron Alex Stalker did well to draw a nice attack post in a race loaded with speed, has been running well at the level, and will offer a hint of value as well; love his chances here.
#3 Turnaround Deserving heavy favorite has been running against better, and running faster, than the rest here, but there's plenty of speed here, which may sap him late; trying to beat.
#6 Legendary Night Class dropper will like this reduced group and seems to be finding his form a bit lately, and while a win seems like a reach, he'll like the pace and can rally; exotics appeal.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's plenty here to help the chances of the 7, while potentially hurting those of the 3, so play him to win and place, and especially in the late pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is another spot where budget players will single the favorite, even though it's the pick who seems to be ripe to pull off the mild surprise.
__________________
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Charles Town - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Cool Mo Took a liking to the local footing and company with that 10-length maiden score last out. She'll need to step forward off that run, but she has some upside in this second start off the layoff.
#7 Silk Stocking Outran the odds at 17-1 last time out, but it's still worth noting that she only beat one horse home in that very short field. Not totally sold, and she's not going to offer any kind of similar price this time around.
#6 Whiz Pass Finisher tends to come up a bit short, but she's a useful underneath type who typically plugs along late for a piece.
Race Summary Cool Mo impressed in the local debut, and she potentially has something even better to offer this time around.
Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Reform School Ran huge at 34-1 to close out the 2019 campaign in that stakes try at Laurel, and his 2-for-2 local record makes him a threat again here.
#5 Irish Roar Should be right there in a pretty top-heavy race, and he has some ability to settle and finish which works in his favor.
#7 Fiber and Emily Versatile type easily handled a short field in the local return, and he'll get a good run of things from close range here.
Race Summary Reform School and Irish Roar are tough to get past here, but the former may offer a slightly better price off the layoff
Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Hypothesis Moves into open company, but his local form is really solid, and he figures to get another good run of things from close range.
#1 Zafir Forward player could be in line for a tricky trip from the fence with some other pace signed up outside of him, but that local debut was sharp and something similar keeps him in the mix tonight.
#5 Majestic Seas Another one who wants to be in the mix in the early going, he's likely to give away a bit of ground late and settle for an underneath share.
Race Summary Hypothesis gets the call with a perfect 3-for-3 local record, and he is versatile enough to work out a trip depending on how the race unfolds.
__________________
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 CANFINDABETTORMAN Rallied into blanket finish while 6-wide in the stretch.
#5 GRAND AVE LEGEND Big middle move to win qualifier for 25-percent barn.
#9 RAIN MAN BLUE CHIP Showed pulse in 3yo debut from same post after long layoff.
Race Summary Cantfindabettorman finished ahead of several rivals he meets again tonight – and he did so while rallying widest in the stretch. He draws outside but can win with a duplicate run. Play a 5-7-9 exacta box.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 CASIMIR RUMRUNNER Free late, ran scare into odds-on winner, draws rail.
#5 P L IDAHO Met pair of repeat winners in February, managing one runner-up finish.
#4 KINGOFTHEJUNGLE Ran second in 3 of last 6 starts, won 5 of 17 last year.
Race Summary Casimir Rumrunner looked for running room, swung 4-wide in mid-stretch and gobbled up ground on the 3-to-5 winner. He draws the rail and is the key to 1-4 and 1-5 exactas.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 DARTH FADER Can’t go beyond in spot where he’s proven dominant this year.
#5 BERNIE Willingly pursued top one from the pocket, has chance at much better price.
#1 SIZE ME UP Finished in the money in four straight, but he’s 1-72 lifetime.
Race Summary Darth Fader won 4 of his last 5 starts and will be another short price to do it again. He was in control throughout against a similar field that raced single file until the top of the stretch. Play a 7-5 exacta.
__________________
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Words of Devine Has enough speed to save position while battling for the lead and can dig in on the turn-back in distance.
#4 Napa Rules Is back to a shorter sprint after running longer; can be part of the up-front battle and could benefit from this distance.
#2 Queen Abarrio Comes in off a maiden-claiming win and can get a stalking run here; tough if the front-runners falter at all.
Race Summary Words of Devine is fast enough to get the best trip of the speed horses and can resist late.
Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Big Hambone Was claimed in January and makes his 1st start for Walsh barn; has some good works and can mix it up in this spot.
#9 Uncle Curly Was claimed when he won two back, steps up vs. better last time and is now back to a more comfortable level.
#4 Bye Bye Man Has been in with stronger company and has a couple of good recent starts; late threat. Comes out of fast races.
Race Summary Big Hambone had a bit of a breather and could be able to come back in good shape for a capable stable. Worth a look at this price.
Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Gioielli Probably benefited from racing longer in her last two, moves over to the main track and can be a force from the beginning.
#3 Flora Fantasy Ran on well and was up in time last out in her 1st for Joseph, Jr. barn; is back to the claim price and is a good bet for the exotics.
#5 Shes All Woman Was fourth in four of her last five and has been with decent company; can stalk a fast pace and could be tough to hold off.
Race Summary Gioielli drops back to a shorter distance and has the speed to battle; should be able to dig in vs. these.
__________________